Where do you rank Seth Jones?

[Sergei Shirokov]

Heard on Vancouver radio this morning that Ryan Ellis is better than him.

(I voted 6-10. But after Josi & Hedman you could make a case for a number of guys including Jones)

 

[Gurglesons]

Who do you think is better than him?

I have him firmly in the top 5 he is potentially a top 3 d man.

Josi, Pietrangelo and Hedman are the only three d men right now that I think I can say with confidence are better players.

Josi
Slavin
Hedman
Pietro
Letang
Carlson
Hamilton
Petry
Heiskanen

Probably have him in a toss up with players like Makar, Hughes, Ellis and I think you could argue him over Letang and Carlson, but I wouldn't.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Easily top 10
probably top 5

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It really is hard to reconcile some of the numbers with the eye test though. Like he looks like a stud, but then why doesn't he improve his team much when he's on the ice even just in terms of goals for and against? Obviously there's a lot of variance with goals, but it's been over a significant period now. Usually I try to look for reasons for why a player might look better or worse than his underlying stats, but there isn't a lot that makes sense for him.

Other than this season, he's generally positive in all the various advanced metrics, though. But people seem to be using this season to show he's not elite.

Also, maybe that's the problem? Maybe these analytics aren't quite as accurate at detailing what folks think they're accurate at detailing?

 

[bert]

Josi
Slavin
Hedman
Pietro
Letang
Carlson
Hamilton
Petry
Heiskanen

Probably have him in a toss up with players like Makar, Hughes, Ellis and I think you could argue him over Letang and Carlson, but I wouldn't.

Yeah I dont think any of those players are on his level outside of Hedman, Pietrangelo and potentially Carlson. Petry isnt remotely close. Need a bigger sample size from Heiskanen, Makar, Hughes and if you have those guys Chabot should be in the mix but none are as good as he is right now as a two way player.

But hey its a great debate. Letang certainly isnt there anymore, Hamilton sure had a great year but I dont think he has the same type of jam

Other than this season, he's generally positive in all the various advanced metrics, though. But people seem to be using this season to show he's not elite.

Also, maybe that's the problem? Maybe these analytics aren't quite as accurate at detailing what folks think they're accurate at detailing?

Analytics are certainly not the be all and end all, i know on a site like this they can reign supreme to win debates but NHL teams dont use them as the metric to determine if a player is elite. Dubas just said that Ceci's advanced stats are great, I think that tells you all you need to know. They are a good tool to use as a secondary metric but by no means are teams with strong front offices using it as a primary tool to make decisions.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Heard on Vancouver radio this morning that Ryan Ellis is better than him.

(I voted 6-10. But after Josi & Hedman you could make a case for a number of guys including Jones)

Because all major statistics show that Ryan Ellis IS better than him...

Jones is pleasing to the eye test but his on-ice results simply don't herald him as a top 5 defenseman in the NHL.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah I dont think any of those players are on his level outside of Hedman, Pietrangelo and potentially Carlson. Petry isnt remotely close. Need a bigger sample size from Heiskanen, Makar, Hughes and if you have those guys Chabot should be in the mix but none are as good as he is right now as a two way player.

But hey its a great debate. Letang certainly isnt there anymore, Hamilton sure had a great year but I dont think he has the same type of jam.

I guess I just see Jones as not amazing in any regard. He’s a very solid, two way D, but he isn’t exceptional offensively or defensively.

I’d argue Petry is a lot of what people perceive Jones to be when you start parsing the numbers along with the eye test.

 

[Regal]

Other than this season, he's generally positive in all the various advanced metrics, though. But people seem to be using this season to show he's not elite.

Also, maybe that's the problem? Maybe these analytics aren't quite as accurate at detailing what folks think they're accurate at detailing?

He's been generally a positive relative to the team in corsi statistics, but not much better at expected or actual goals, and was poor at high danger chances last year and really bad this year. Goals aren't really an advanced metric, and over the last 4 years, at 5v5 with Jones on the ice the Jackets have scored 227 goals and given up 201 goals against for a GF% of 53%. The Jackets without Jones have scored 422 goals and given up 371 for a GF% of 53%. Jones obviously plays the best players generally, but he's with a good partner and doesn't actually improve his team's performance when he's on the ice over 4 years of data. And he hasn't had an unsually low PDO. Most elite players have a significant effect on a team's GF% over time.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He's been generally a positive relative to the team in corsi statistics, but not much better at expected or actual goals, and was poor at high danger chances last year and really bad this year. Goals aren't really an advanced metric, and over the last 4 years, at 5v5 with Jones on the ice the Jackets have scored 227 goals and given up 201 goals against for a GF% of 53%. The Jackets without Jones have scored 422 goals and given up 371 for a GF% of 53%. Jones obviously plays the best players generally, but he's with a good partner and doesn't actually improve his team's performance when he's on the ice over 4 years of data. And he hasn't had an unsually low PDO. Most elite players have a significant effect on a team's GF% over time.

I'd argue the fact he does just as well as other defenseman on his team who don't have to go up against the other team's top line is proof he IS good.

 

[thomaspalmer]

Top 5 with a strong case for Top 3, IMO.

I'd probably have Hedman at #1, followed by some ordering of Josi, Pietrangelo, Carlson, and Jones rounding out the Top 5 right now.

 

[majormajor]

He's very physically talented player but also very passive defensively. This style of play occasionally gets mistaken for having good hockey sense, which isn't actually true in Jones' case.

This "passive defensively" thing I think just comes from the recent zone denial stats, and that has more to do with the Jackets defensive scheme than Seth Jones himself. A few years ago he was noted for being fantastic at holding the line. He has all the tools to be good at, excellent lateral mobility and reach, great stick, elite hockey sense and anticipation. The most recent Tortorella strategy has the team ceding the zone uncontested very frequently. That's part of why they are the #1 rush defense team in the league. They then give up a lot of perimeter possession and zone time until they get the puck back. Its not a good system for advanced stats but the system keeps goals against very low, as you would have noticed recently. I am a big believer in the value of some "advanced stats" but they'll make you look dumb if you don't look into team strategy and team effects, and sorry but that is what is happening here.

------------------------------------

In terms of all-around ability I'd put Seth Jones at the very top tier of NHL defenders. His tools have been on full display in these playoffs matching up with Matthews and Kucherov. You wouldn't have seen his tools as much in the Jackets regular season play for a couple reasons, one being that Seth wasn't quite this sharp in the regular season. He had some games where he was by far the best player on the ice but a lot of the time he was just a very good but unspectacular player. He's not a Roman Josi level offensive talent, just great all-around. The bigger issue is that Tortorella's system tends to mute talent at both ends. Rushes by the D were rare in the regular season. Their main job was to guard "the house" in front of the net, and to get pucks deep for the forecheckers to go to work, so that's what you would have seen over and over again.

 

[Regal]

I'd argue the fact he does just as well as other defenseman on his team who don't have to go up against the other team's top line is proof he IS good.

Good, yes. I don't know if that screams top 10 defenseman though.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

4-7 range as of now. The range depending on team needs and offense vs defense

 

[Connor McConnor]

top 5 should be unanimous but I think he probably deserves to be top 3. I think his offensive numbers go against him in the public eye but that's moreso to do with his teams style of play than anything else.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Good, yes. I don't know if that screams top 10 defenseman though.

If you based it entirely on analytics, then no.

But then you also run the risk of getting conclusions like John Carlson not being a #1 defenseman if you rely too much on what analytics tell you.

 

[Regal]

If you based it entirely on analytics, then no.

But then you also run the risk of getting conclusions like John Carlson not being a #1 defenseman if you rely too much on what analytics tell you.

But is that really analytics though? It's not some weighted analysis like GAR or RAPM, or something like zone entries or shots, which can be affected by system, it's just basic on-ice results. I mean I'm not saying he can't be good, I'm more just wondering out loud how the two go hand in hand, because you would just expect better results.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

But is that really analytics though? It's not some weighted analysis like GAR or RAPM, or something like zone entries or shots, which can be affected by system, it's just basic on-ice results. I mean I'm not saying he can't be good, I'm more just wondering out loud how the two go hand in hand, because you would just expect better results.

But there's just too many variables that go into these various analytics that don't completely isolate an individual player's performance from the other 5 guys on the ice. Yes, I know there are various "Relative" stats and such, but at the same time there's still so much about advanced stats that is out of an individual player's control.

If the "eye test" suggests he's a Top 5 defender and the "analytics" suggests he's good enough to be in the Top 15, then maybe it's best to conclude that he's somewhere in the middle to account for variance in both? So putting him anywhere in the 6-10 range sounds most reasonable.

 

[BananaSquad]

Top 3 for me easily

 

[Aoko]

This thread reeks of recency bias due to how many minutes he played in game 1.

Top 6-10. Anybody that thinks he's top 3 is...

 

[Regal]

But there's just too many variables that go into these various analytics that don't completely isolate an individual player's performance from the other 5 guys on the ice. Yes, I know there are various "Relative" stats and such, but at the same time there's still so much about advanced stats that is out of an individual player's control.

If the "eye test" suggests he's a Top 5 defender and the "analytics" suggests he's good enough to be in the Top 15, then maybe it's best to conclude that he's somewhere in the middle to account for variance in both? So putting him anywhere in the 6-10 range sounds most reasonable.

That's the issue though. The analytics don't suggest he's too 15, they suggest he's not even a top 30 defenseman, and arguably not a top pairing defenseman. It's when there's large discrepancies that it becomes tough to figure out what to believe and I think we need to start breaking down both to see what's really happening. I'm just not going to fault anyone for having doubts about whether he's actually elite or not.

 

[Gurglesons]

But there's just too many variables that go into these various analytics that don't completely isolate an individual player's performance from the other 5 guys on the ice. Yes, I know there are various "Relative" stats and such, but at the same time there's still so much about advanced stats that is out of an individual player's control.

If the "eye test" suggests he's a Top 5 defender and the "analytics" suggests he's good enough to be in the Top 15, then maybe it's best to conclude that he's somewhere in the middle to account for variance in both? So putting him anywhere in the 6-10 range sounds most reasonable.

I think he’s right out of the top ten, but I think a lot of people see big and good skater and think wow.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I have Hedman in his own tier.

After that, there's a tier of players including Jones, Josi, Doughty, Pietrangelo, McAvoy that is all pretty close.

Jones probably is among the four best of those players, so I'd say he's top 5. Top 3 is questionable. Maybe, but not consistently a clear top 3 defenseman.

 

[newfy]

I picked top 5 but I think he could be higher than that. I realistically think there is a fair argument for Hedman, Petro an Josi being better right now. But I think I'm taking him over at least Josi. Only one I would put ahead I think is Hedman to be honest

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Certainly #1 with these playoffs and last years playoffs as evidence.

 

[majormajor]

This thread reeks of recency bias due to how many minutes he played in game 1.

It's recent attention but this is just the latest of several Seth Jones threads from the last ten days. It started with game 1 of the Toronto-Columbus series, where he was sensational. I'm guessing you didn't watch that series.