Where do you rank Connor Bedard as a player right now?

[AM]

Are you actually trying to argue that a 38 Corey Perry had as much impact as a guy who was almost doubling Perry up in points when he was suspended?

What do the stats say?

 

[11Messier]

Way too early to rank. Top 10000 for sure though. I need to see a hell of lot more before I can rank him properly. Nail Yakapov was having a pretty good rookie year too and look what happened to him. I also need to see what happens when teams start keying in on him and treating him rough. Right now teams don't take Chicago too seriously so they don't plan their whole defensive strategy on shutting him down yet. How will he adjust when that happens? After a couple of years, we can maybe start to see how he handles these things. The potential is there but nothing has been consistently proven yet.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Way too early to rank. Top 10000 for sure though. I need to see a hell of lot more before I can rank him properly. Nail Yakapov was having a pretty good rookie year too and look what happened to him. I also need to see what happens when teams start keying in on him and treating him rough. Right now teams don't take Chicago too seriously so they don't plan their whole defensive strategy on shutting him down yet. How will he adjust when that happens? After a couple of years, we can maybe start to see how he handles these things. The potential is there but nothing has been consistently proven yet.

Teams aren't keying in on him? No matter how awful a team is, the opposing team's coaching staff are watching tape and doing the necessary prep work.

If a coach isn't zeroing on him when they play the Hawks (and he's in the lineup of course), that coach should be fired for not doing his homework; easy homework at that considering there is only one guy on this Hawks team you really need to study up on.

Coaches don't just say "f*** it, we're probably gonna win anyways" and not prepare for their opponents, no matter the team.

 

[Yepthatsme]

So you’re saying replacing him with an ahl guy doesn’t help them? What’s their win rate w/o perry?

With Perry: 0.3125 points percentage
Without Perry: 0.294 points percentage
So almost exactly the same? I honestly have genuinely no clue what you were trying to prove there, unless you didn’t actually know the stats and were just throwing stuff at the wall hoping something would stick?

Bedard raises Chicago’s goals per game rate by 76% in games he plays compared to games they don’t and they accumulate regulation wins 2.5x more often when he’s in the lineup. This kid is honestly under rated on HFBoards at this point (current level of play, not potential)

 

[TheGoldenJet]

#110-120 at the moment.

 

[AM]

With Perry: 0.3125 points percentage
Without Perry: 0.294 points percentage
So almost exactly the same? I honestly have genuinely no clue what you were trying to prove there, unless you didn’t actually know the stats and were just throwing stuff at the wall hoping something would stick?

Bedard raises Chicago’s goals per game rate by 76% in games he plays compared to games they don’t and they accumulate regulation wins 2.5x more often when he’s in the lineup. This kid is honestly under rated on HFBoards at this point (current level of play, not potential)

I was just pointing out that one person isn’t a team. So using team stats like wins is really problematic to identify how much a player helps a team win. However it’s clear that 18 year old rookies don’t help a lot. He’s a skilled guy, he can definitely help a team score some goals. Depending on the team needs will depend on whether that is all that is required.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Top 120 forward.

If I was going to try and win this year for a cup there's probably 4 teams worth of forwards I'd want.

Going forward the guy trends into a top 10 guy season in and season out.

 

[Voodoo Child]

As an asset #2, as a player top 50.

 

[Yepthatsme]

I was just pointing out that one person isn’t a team. So using team stats like wins is really problematic to identify how much a player helps a team win. However it’s clear that 18 year old rookies don’t help a lot. He’s a skilled guy, he can definitely help a team score some goals. Depending on the team needs will depend on whether that is all that is required.

You’re just putting your fingers in your ears and saying that it can’t happen. Bedard quite literally is driving wins for a team on account that his team scores 76% more with him in the lineup. That number is undoubtedly driving wins, considering scoring more goals than the other team wins games, but also the fact that Chicago wins in regulation at much higher rate when Bedard plays. It even passes the eye test to anyone who’s actually watched Bedard this season, he quite literally runs Chicago’s offense.

Fun fact, over the last 12 years no player has ever finished with over 53 points on a team scoring under 2.2 goals per game. Bedard was on pace for 70 on a Chicago team scoring 2.08

 

[LokiDog]

He’s having a better rookie campaign than Jack Hughes and Jack had similar size/injury concerns early on. I expect he’ll follow a very similar trajectory and peak proportionately higher. Right now it’s difficult to rank him, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he is considered a top 5 center by the time his ELC ends.

I imagine he will end up being somewhere between a Hughes and MacKinnon career wise. Something can go wrong with injuries, etc. but based on ability and what he’s done so far as a true 18 year old rookie on a team with dreadful help, he’s definitely shown that he already can create a ton on his own, and as he matures and gets help, he should be deadly.

 

[tyhee]

Do we not have enough patience to wait and see what his career brings rather than guessing where he ranks or will rank part way through his rookie season?

 

[Deadly Dogma]

Do we not have enough patience to wait and see what his career brings rather than guessing where he ranks or will rank part way through his rookie season?

No, I am 99% positive there were threads talking about his career ranking well before he was drafted

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Without Bedard Chicago has scored 16 goals in 12 games. That mark is pitiful. They have one regulation win in those 12 games. The fact he was able to get 26 points in his last 26 games on an entire roster combined that has 1.3 goals per game without him is transcendiary.

That is actually not a fact. Bedard has 6g 20p in his last 26gp.

Also, I think you mean transcendent. "Transcendiary" isn't an actual word.

 

[kingsholygrail]

I rank him as injured.

 

[KCC]

Wow. Have you watched Bedard play this season? He’s an elite passer. The thing that separates him from Matthews and Ovechkin at his age is the playmaking. The way he creates opportunities for himself and his teammates as a “shoot-first guy” is unreal.

Second of all, people are comparing him to McDavid and Crosby and making it sound like they had FAR SUPERIOR rookie seasons when that’s simply not true:

Bedard’s first 35 games: 33 points
Crosby’s first 35 games: 37 points
McDavid rookie szn: 48pts in 45 games

Yes, Crosby had a better rookie szn. People forget that it was the second half of his rookie szn where he took the game by storm. Bedard also plays ON A FAR worse team than what McDavid inherited. A competent PP with guys like prime Eberle, Hall, RNH and a young Leon.

The kid is going to be special. Is he a top player in the NHL right now? Obviously not. He’s only played 39 games. However, his play and production so far is just as advertised and slandering him with horrible takes is not right.

When Mcdavid entered the league scoring was actually very low. Kane won with 106 points. Benn was second with a measly 89 points. The league was much harder to score even though it wasn’t that long ago. And he still was on pace to be second that year. That’s more impressive than what bedard is doing where scoring is high again and Crosby who when he entered, scoring was also high. Remember that they changed the rules and team’s got 10 pp’s a game, most for basically just looking at another player. lol

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Wow. Have you watched Bedard play this season? He’s an elite passer. The thing that separates him from Matthews and Ovechkin at his age is the playmaking. The way he creates opportunities for himself and his teammates as a “shoot-first guy” is unreal.

Second of all, people are comparing him to McDavid and Crosby and making it sound like they had FAR SUPERIOR rookie seasons when that’s simply not true:

Bedard’s first 35 games: 33 points
Crosby’s first 35 games: 37 points
McDavid rookie szn: 48pts in 45 games

Yes, Crosby had a better rookie szn. People forget that it was the second half of his rookie szn where he took the game by storm. Bedard also plays ON A FAR worse team than what McDavid inherited. A competent PP with guys like prime Eberle, Hall, RNH and a young Leon.

The kid is going to be special. Is he a top player in the NHL right now? Obviously not. He’s only played 39 games. However, his play and production so far is just as advertised and slandering him with horrible takes is not right.

Bedard has 33 points in 39 games, not 35.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

He's mildly overrated because he's pretty poor defensively and doesn't have an elite skating stride/extra gear of speed. I think he's got Patrick Kane level of playmaking with Stamkos/prime Kovalchuk level goal scoring ability. But he's nowhere close to Crosby or McDavid when they came into the league.

 

[Yepthatsme]

That is actually not a fact. Bedard has 6g 20p in his last 26gp.

Also, I think you mean transcendent. "Transcendiary" isn't an actual word.

You’re right I did miss a game so it’s 26 in 27. Could even do 26 in 28 if you’re starved enough for a moral victory to count his 3 minutes before he broke his jaw. Either way, an incredible pace on an inept team offensively.

 

[SavBigMoneyAtBedards]

Hard to rank him across the NHL but he's certainly the most talented player on his team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You’re right I did miss a game so it’s 26 in 27. Could even do 26 in 28 if you’re starved enough for a moral victory to count his 3 minutes before he broke his jaw. Either way, an incredible pace on an inept team offensively.

He has 22 points in his last 27 games.

 

[DamonDRW]

Top-1 undoubtedly. Captain Canada, the next one. Savior.

 

[11Messier]

Teams aren't keying in on him? No matter how awful a team is, the opposing team's coaching staff are watching tape and doing the necessary prep work.

If a coach isn't zeroing on him when they play the Hawks (and he's in the lineup of course), that coach should be fired for not doing his homework; easy homework at that considering there is only one guy on this Hawks team you really need to study up on.

Coaches don't just say "f*** it, we're probably gonna win anyways" and not prepare for their opponents, no matter the team.

Yes. the coaches analyze every team before each game to do what is necessary to win. That doesn't mean they are zeroing in on Bedard. It's not like Bedard is averaging 2 points a game and needs to be neutralized. He gets treated no different than every other team that has a forward with almost a point per game. Zeroing in on a player only happens after said player burns you over and over again. It took years before McDavid had players shadowing him.

Sure you could argue Bedard is the only guy on the hawks that can be a game breaker so key in on him. Sure, to a degree, I am sure that happens. Who knows, maybe that is even what got him injured. But I don't think it's at the level where they key in on McDavid. Let's see how he handles getting back from IR and gets hit hard once again. Will he up his game and fight through it or will he hide away. both reactions have happened before to players coming back from injuries.

Look... He may be the next McDavid, but he also could be a flop like Yakapov. He's at less than a point per game. has played under 40 NHL games and is on IR. Not sure how you expect anybody to rank him among the Goats with such data. Their are many player that go on similar runs at times. What makes a great player great is consistently doing it. Bedard hasn't even done it once yet, never mind consistently doing it. So what accolades does a player averaging less than a point per game get you. At this time, not very much.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Yes. the coaches analyze every team before each game to do what is necessary to win. That doesn't mean they are zeroing in on Bedard. It's not like Bedard is averaging 2 points a game and needs to be neutralized. He gets treated no different than every other team that has a forward with almost a point per game. Zeroing in on a player only happens after said player burns you over and over again. It took years before McDavid had players shadowing him.

Sure you could argue Bedard is the only guy on the hawks that can be a game breaker so key in on him. Sure, to a degree, I am sure that happens. Who knows, maybe that is even what got him injured. But I don't think it's at the level where they key in on McDavid. Let's see how he handles getting back from IR and gets hit hard once again. Will he up his game and fight through it or will he hide away. both reactions have happened before to players coming back from injuries.

Look... He may be the next McDavid, but he also could be a flop like Yakapov. He's at less than a point per game. has played under 40 NHL games and is on IR. Not sure how you expect anybody to rank him among the Goats with such data. Their are many player that go on similar runs at times. What makes a great player great is consistently doing it. Bedard hasn't even done it once yet, never mind consistently doing it. So what accolades does a player averaging less than a point per game get you. At this time, not very much.

He isn't Nail Yakupov and it's lazy (and crazy) for people here to try to say he is or could become Nail Yakupov.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes. the coaches analyze every team before each game to do what is necessary to win. That doesn't mean they are zeroing in on Bedard. It's not like Bedard is averaging 2 points a game and needs to be neutralized. He gets treated no different than every other team that has a forward with almost a point per game. Zeroing in on a player only happens after said player burns you over and over again. It took years before McDavid had players shadowing him.

Sure you could argue Bedard is the only guy on the hawks that can be a game breaker so key in on him. Sure, to a degree, I am sure that happens. Who knows, maybe that is even what got him injured. But I don't think it's at the level where they key in on McDavid. Let's see how he handles getting back from IR and gets hit hard once again. Will he up his game and fight through it or will he hide away. both reactions have happened before to players coming back from injuries.

Look... He may be the next McDavid, but he also could be a flop like Yakapov. He's at less than a point per game. has played under 40 NHL games and is on IR. Not sure how you expect anybody to rank him among the Goats with such data. Their are many player that go on similar runs at times. What makes a great player great is consistently doing it. Bedard hasn't even done it once yet, never mind consistently doing it. So what accolades does a player averaging less than a point per game get you. At this time, not very much.

There is 0% probability that he becomes a Yakupov.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Given how many pts he has on a garbage line on a team with a garbage roster I'd put him in the top 10% of forwards. It's not easy to score when you are the only threat on the team and the opposition can focus entirely on you. For a rookie his age and size to be doing what he was doing on an awful team before injury is amazing. Any comps to other rookies are pointless. He 100% has generational talent. Going to need to stay healthy and have his team improve a great deal in order to actually be generational.