Where do you rank Connor Bedard as a player right now?

[CallMeShaft]

Well Ovechkin has led the NHL in goals the most in NHL history, against larger talent pools than the runner ups. But I don’t know, I’m high on Bedard’s potential and I think it’s silly to say that he will land right around a top 10 player of all-time as if it’s just obvious he’s going to be that good. Not saying it is impossible though but it just seems a bit beyond best case scenario to me.

I don't necessarily see Ovi as a top 10 guy in the league's history. He's borderline generational to me; hell of a goal scorer though.

And that's where I see Bedard potentially ending up. Borderline generational. Not in that Gretzky, Mario, Crosby, McDavid caliber of forward, but just on the outside of that looking in.

 

[maroon 6]

Crosby's best stretch of the season was with Armstrong and Hilbert on his line. Dude was a superstar in the league immediately, finishing 6th in league scoring on a terrible team.

Crosby paced for 103 points, a full 44 points ahead of Bedard's current pace. No amount of linemate magic is gonna close that gap.

I'm not arguing that Bedard was better. If were going to judge them based on their points and points per game then its important to consider the team around them and especially the powerplay where Crosby had almost half his points. Yeah the Penguins were terrible too but their problem wasn't goal scoring. They had 244 goals that season which was middle of the pack and averaged just below 3 goals a game. The Blackhawks right now have 105 goals in 50 games which translates to 172 goals over the season and 2.1 goals a game. A difference of 72 goals over the season and 0.88 goals per game.

As someone else has mentioned, since Bedard has been out the Hawks have scored only 15 goals in 12 games including 4 games where they have been shutout.

The Pens that season had the 6th best powerplay in the league led by Crosby (47 points), Recchi (30 points), Leclair (27 points) and Gonchar (38 points).

Blackhawks on the other hand have the leagues worst powerplay, and Bedard only has 8/33= 24% percent of his points on the powerplay. Compare that with Crosby's 47/102= 46% of his points on the powerplay.

Again I'm not saying Bedards rookie season is better because its not. But saying that it's no where near and comparing points/ppg without factoring the team around him is not really fair. I do think if Bedard had some better teammates around him he would be ppg or over.

Even strength point per game

Bedard - 25/39 = 0.64 ppg
Crosby - 55/81 = 0.68 ppg

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm not arguing that Bedard was better. If were going to judge them based on their points and points per game then its important to consider the team around them and especially the powerplay where Crosby had almost half his points. Yeah the Penguins were terrible too but their problem wasn't goal scoring. They had 244 goals that season which was middle of the pack and averaged just below 3 goals a game. The Blackhawks right now have 105 goals in 50 games which translates to 172 goals over the season and 2.1 goals a game. A difference of 72 goals over the season and 0.88 goals per game.

As someone else has mentioned, since Bedard has been out the Hawks have scored only 15 goals in 12 games including 4 games where they have been shutout.

The Pens that season had the 6th best powerplay in the league led by Crosby (47 points), Recchi (30 points), Leclair (27 points) and Gonchar (38 points).

Blackhawks on the other hand have the leagues worst powerplay, and Bedard only has 8/33= 24% percent of his points on the powerplay. Compare that with Crosby's 47/102= 46% of his points on the powerplay.

Again I'm not saying Bedards rookie season is better because its not. But saying that it's no where near and comparing points/ppg without factoring the team around him is not really fair. I do think if Bedard had some better teammates around him he would be ppg or over.

You can factor linemates all you want, it doesn't come close to closing the gigantic performance gap between the two. Crosby was immediately one of the top players on the planet. Heck, he was arguably the best player in the world from the midpoint of the season onward. Bedard is not remotely close.

Even strength point per game

Bedard - 25/39 = 0.64 ppg
Crosby - 55/81 = 0.68 ppg

ES ppg is a terrible metric considering how much less ES ice time per game Crosby was playing back then. It's actually crazy that Crosby was able to score more ES points per game despite playing much less ES time

 

[GrumpyKoala]

About
71 th in goal
108 th in points
838 th in +\-
His haircut definitely need some improvement but nothing that cant be fixed

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

Between Petr Bondra and Ovechkin.

 

[authentic]

You can factor linemates all you want, it doesn't come close to closing the gigantic performance gap between the two. Crosby was immediately one of the top players on the planet. Heck, he was arguably the best player in the world from the midpoint of the season onward. Bedard is not remotely close.


ES ppg is a terrible metric considering how much less ES ice time per game Crosby was playing back then. It's actually crazy that Crosby was able to score more ES points per game despite playing much less ES time

Also Crosby was actually a decent defensive player compared to Bedard. I think people forget how good Crosby was right away. Second half of the season he was better than McDavid was as a rookie while being half a year younger. He kept pace in scoring with Thornton and Jagr which is actually something that rarely gets mentioned but is one of the most impressive parts of his career.

 

[PCAisBest]

If your nitpicking stats or using media projection as the basis of your argument you already lost.

Bedards a great player, but he's nowhere near a generational talent.

People need to understand a generational talent equals you are never going to see that type of elite talent once they retire. There's already a few Bedard types in the nhl already. Pasta, Hughes, etc.

Who's like McDavid?
Gretzky?
Lemieux?
Crosby?
Ovi?

(Crickets)

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Also Crosby was actually a decent defensive player compared to Bedard. I think people forget how good Crosby was right away. Second half of the season he was better than McDavid was as a rookie while being half a year younger. He kept pace in scoring with Thornton and Jagr which is actually something that rarely gets mentioned but is one of the most impressive parts of his career.

Yep, this is a pretty nutty level of play for an 18 year old on one of the worst teams in the league:

This would be akin to Bedard competing with guys like Kucherov, Mackinnon, and Pastrnak over the final 50 games of the season.

And it's not like his linemates were all that great in that span. They were primarily rookie Colby Armstrong and one of:

• 37-38 year old Mark Recchi (who had 7p in 20gp after being traded to Carolina)
• Andy Hilbert (who had 15p in 66 career NHL games up till then)
• Tomas Surovy (who had 49 points in the AHL the prior year)

It's no coincidence that these guy's production skyrocketed while playing with Crosby.

Of his 34 ES points in that span, these are the top forwards in term of shared points on Crosby's ES points at ES:

Clearly he wasn't getting that much support.

Look at the Pens scoring over that span:

 

[boredmale]

Right now given he is injured and can't play, I would rate a kid in junior hockey above him but I would still put him above the No Hit league guys

 

[PCAisBest]

If Jack Hughes was Canadian he would have been getting the same generational talent hype Bedard got.

#isaidit

 

[nbwingsfan]

You can factor linemates all you want, it doesn't come close to closing the gigantic performance gap between the two. Crosby was immediately one of the top players on the planet. Heck, he was arguably the best player in the world from the midpoint of the season onward. Bedard is not remotely close.


ES ppg is a terrible metric considering how much less ES ice time per game Crosby was playing back then. It's actually crazy that Crosby was able to score more ES points per game despite playing much less ES time

Bedard only plays around 15mins of ES time/game… how little did Crosby play at ES to end up with “so much less” ES time?

 

[HFpapi]

I rank him as a rookie. Once he gets 5 years under his belt I'll reevaluate.

I never said I was a scout..

Guess we can't rank Cale Makar. Damn, wish we could figure out where he ranks but simply not enough sample size.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Guess we can't rank Cale Makar. Damn, wish we could figure out where he ranks but simply not enough sample size.

Cale Makar was what, 21 when he Entered the league? Currently in his D+7 and entered a contender from day 1

That’s comparable to Bedard, who’s 18 in his D+1 on likely the worst team in the league without him (maybe with him)?

 

[HFpapi]

Cale Makar was what, 21 when he Entered the league? Currently in his D+7 and entered a contender from day 1

That’s comparable to Bedard, who’s 18 in his D+1 on likely the worst team in the league without him (maybe with him)?

It's taking the person I'm replying to at face value when they say you can't evaluate a player until they have 5 seasons under their belt which is obviously a nonsense thing to say.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard only plays around 15mins of ES time/game… how little did Crosby play at ES to end up with “so much less” ES time?

Crosby got 13:49 ES TOI/gp
Bedard has gotten 15:31 ES TOI/gp

2.49 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

Crosby finished 17th in ESP/60 (based on data I pulled from top 200 forwards in terms of ES TOI and top 200 ES point scorers)

Bedard is currently 57th in ESP/60 among players with >500 ES minutes, right behind Yegor Chinahkov, Nicolas Roy, and Warren Foegele.

And Crosby didn't get the benefit of 3v3 OT. Taking out 3v3:

2.31 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

This is just another statistical category where Crosby laps Bedard.

 

[AzHawk]

And Crosby didn't get the benefit of 3v3 OT. Taking out 3v3:

2.31 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

Can you take out 5v5 too, since Bedard didn't get the benefit of that?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Can you take out 5v5 too, since Bedard didn't get the benefit of that?

You mean because he's not very good 5v5? Or because Jason Dickinson has more 5v5 points than him?

 

[mr figgles]

Hard to judge. Has any 1st overall had a rookie season with a worse team? The rest of that team is dire. He could not play another game the rest of the season, and still end up their leading scorer.

 

[AzHawk]

You mean because he's not very good 5v5? Or because Jason Dickinson has more 5v5 points than him?

The context was OT.

 

[authentic]

Crosby got 13:49 ES TOI/gp
Bedard has gotten 15:31 ES TOI/gp

2.49 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

Crosby finished 17th in ESP/60 (based on data I pulled from top 200 forwards in terms of ES TOI and top 200 ES point scorers)

Bedard is currently 57th in ESP/60 among players with >500 ES minutes, right behind Yegor Chinahkov, Nicolas Roy, and Warren Foegele.

And Crosby didn't get the benefit of 3v3 OT. Taking out 3v3:

2.31 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

This is just another statistical category where Crosby laps Bedard.

Also even strength scoring rates are higher today. The more you look at it the bigger the gap gets for Crosby.

 

[maroon 6]

You mean because he's not very good 5v5? Or because Jason Dickinson has more 5v5 points than him?

Dickinson has one less even strength point than him in 11 mores games. Nice for Dickinson though as his 24 even strength points match that of Zibanejad.

Bedard has 25 which is more than guys like Marchand, Jack Hughes, Kaprizov, RNH, Tavares

Crosby got 13:49 ES TOI/gp
Bedard has gotten 15:31 ES TOI/gp

2.49 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

Crosby finished 17th in ESP/60 (based on data I pulled from top 200 forwards in terms of ES TOI and top 200 ES point scorers)

Bedard is currently 57th in ESP/60 among players with >500 ES minutes, right behind Yegor Chinahkov, Nicolas Roy, and Warren Foegele.

And Crosby didn't get the benefit of 3v3 OT. Taking out 3v3:

2.31 ESP/60 for Bedard
2.84 ESP/60 for Crosby

This is just another statistical category where Crosby laps Bedard.

So Bedard plays 1 minute 42 seconds more on es than Crosby did. That works out to be approx 138 more minutes ES toi for Bedard over 81 games. Using the esp/per60 Crosby would have 7 more even strength points that season had he also played 15 and a half minutes.

Crosby had 55 even strength and shorthanded points that season and + 7 = 62 esp over 81 games
Bedard has 25 es points/39 games x 81 games = 52 esp over 81 games

A 10 point difference, and with a better team around him that difference can be less. Maybe Crosby didnt have the best linemates the whole time, but who on the Hawks compares to Gonchar? The big difference was not the even strength production but rather the powerplay production.

Now lets look at the powerplay. Crosby had 5:40 mins of power play time per game that season compared to 3:33 mins for Bedard. A full 2 more minutes difference per game and a total of 170 more pp minutes over the season.

Crosby had 47 points that season on the pp. Bedard with his 8 pp points/ 39games x 81 games would have 17 points on the powerplay. A 30 point difference. Pens with the 6th best powerplay and the Hawks having the league worst. This is where having good players around you really matters. Gonchar, Recchi, Leclair, Palffy, Lemieux >>>> any xyz on the Hawks.

Crosby had the better season, its unarguable. But the points gap doesnt tell the whole story.

The only D-1 seasons of late that compare with Bedards are those of McDavid (48 in 45), Matthews (69 in 82), Laine (64 in 73) and Mackinnon (63 in 82). Unlike Bedard though, all of these guys had some good teammates around them.

 

[maroon 6]

Also even strength scoring rates are higher today. The more you look at it the bigger the gap gets for Crosby.

True but 05-06 had way more powerplay opportunities and power play goals

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Dickinson has one less even strength point than him in 11 mores games. Nice for Dickinson though as his 24 even strength points match that of Zibanejad.

Bedard has 25 which is more than guys like Marchand, Jack Hughes, Kaprizov, RNH, Tavares

ES points are not the same as 5v5 points, FYI. Dickinson leads the Hawks in 5v5 points.

So Bedard plays 1 minute 42 seconds more on es than Crosby did. That works out to be approx 138 more minutes ES toi for Bedard over 81 games. Using the esp/per60 Crosby would have 7 more even strength points that season had he also played 15 and a half minutes.

Crosby had 55 even strength and shorthanded points that season and + 7 = 62 esp over 81 games
Bedard has 25 es points/39 games x 81 games = 52 esp over 81 games

A 10 point difference, and with a better team around him that difference can be less. Maybe Crosby didnt have the best linemates the whole time, but who on the Hawks compares to Gonchar? The big difference was not the even strength production but rather the powerplay production.

That's a 20% difference, that's a pretty big gap - it's the difference between an PPG season and a 100 point season. The gap widens when you consider that 8% of Bedard's ES points came from 3v3 OT play, which wasn't a thing for Crosby. And goaltender equipment is smaller today.

Now lets look at the powerplay. Crosby had 5:40 mins of power play time per game that season compared to 3:33 mins for Bedard. A full 2 more minutes difference per game and a total of 170 more pp minutes over the season.

Crosby had 47 points that season on the pp. Bedard with his 8 pp points/ 39games x 81 games would have 17 points on the powerplay. A 30 point difference. Pens with the 6th best powerplay and the Hawks having the league worst. This is where having good players around you really matters. Gonchar, Recchi, Leclair, Palffy, Lemieux >>>> any xyz on the Hawks.

Crosby had the better season, its unarguable. But the points gap doesnt tell the whole story.

The only D-1 seasons of late that compare with Bedards are those of McDavid (48 in 45), Matthews (69 in 82), Laine (64 in 73) and Mackinnon (63 in 82). Unlike Bedard though, all of these guys had some good teammates around them.

I agree the raw points don't tell the whole story. The best way to illustrate the difference is just to highlight their ranks relative to the league they played in. Crosby was 6th in the league in scoring. Bedard is currently outside the top 50 in PPG.

They aren't in the same tier.

 

[CallMeShaft]

If your nitpicking stats or using media projection as the basis of your argument you already lost.

Bedards a great player, but he's nowhere near a generational talent.

People need to understand a generational talent equals you are never going to see that type of elite talent once they retire. There's already a few Bedard types in the nhl already. Pasta, Hughes, etc.

Who's like McDavid?
Gretzky?
Lemieux?
Crosby?
Ovi?

(Crickets)

Your argument yesterday was that Bedard needs to win multiple cups to potentially become generational, no matter what he achieves personally. Now it's that he needs to not have other players in the league with comparable styles???

How is Pasta like Bedard, but someone like Jack Hughes isn't like McDavid? No, instead you're saying Hughes is a Bedard type, which just tells me you've never watched at least one of them play before. Totally different players.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

He'll be better than Matthews by year 2, so that would make him a top 15 player.