Speculation: Where do the Bruins Finish 2023-24?
- Thread starter smithformeragent
- Start date
I'm a regular season fan. If they win 60% of their games I'm happy.
PO games are OK I'm just not a big fan
PO games are OK I'm just not a big fan
ON3M4N
Ignores/60 = Elite
UncleRico
Registered User
- May 8, 2017
- 9,104
- 11,836
Sweeney will be fired by 2026. So we don’t have to worry about the next time time the Bruins actually have picks.
The defense is still reasonably deep, especially if Shattenkirk can still be even a half-decent player. Beyond that, no question the centers, wings and bottom 6 have all regressed. But there remain some solid pieces that should be enough to keep the team in the playoff mix with a little luck. I think how well the Bruins perform in the coming season is going to depend particularly on 6 things:
- How much DeBrusk, Marchand, Pasta and whoever else winds up in the top 6 (JvR?) are able to step up and produce without playing with two elite centers.
- Just how good can Zacha be as a top 6 center? As a winger he was very good, and when he played C he looked ok, but playing consistently in the middle is a different and harder challenge, and he still has something to prove in that regard.
- How well will our D and our goaltending cope both with getting less effective help from the forwards, and almost certainly finding the puck in their zone more often?
- How will Monty handle quite a different roster that is most probably stronger on the back end than the front? He likes to play attacking hockey, but how much will he have to temper that, and how well can he adapt to and coach a different style?
- Sweeney's thrown in a bunch of cheap mostly older FAs. Basically akin to throwing mud at a wall, how many of them stick and play well for us, and do any kids make the cut and also help out?
- Injuries. This of course impacts all teams, but with the Bruins being so thin especially up front I think injury luck is going to be particularly important for their chances.
I think we make the playoffs as a WC team. Goaltending and D are very good and we have some very good wingers, center is the big problem. I still think a trade is likely to upgrade center.
That's a fair synopsis for next year. I think losing both Bergeron\Krejci will as you point out result in the puck being in the Boston zone a whole lot more. It also means as currently constituted #18 and #13 QOC are going to go up and the 3\4 lines are a huge question mark. The top 4 D is fine, but Shattenkirk is a downgrade compared to Clifton
at this point in his career. If they stay healthy with their remaining core they are in the PO hunt but any significant injuries to any top 6 forward or top 4 D and they could
miss out on a PO spot.
Most teams have injuries come PO. Barkov played injured as was Ekblad and Bob didn't enter the series until G4. So I'm not weighting the Bruins injury situation as heavily as you.
They stay healthy they will be in the hunt at about 92-95 points. Any significant injury
1 Top 6F or 1 Top 4D and they can DNQ.
They stay healthy they will be in the hunt at about 92-95 points. Any significant injury
1 Top 6F or 1 Top 4D and they can DNQ.
Wonder how pissed the rest of the league would be if they squeaked in the playoffs and won the cup
BruinDust
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
- 25,129
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If you take each players point totals from last year the difference between this team:
Zacha - Krejci - Pasta
Marchand - Bergeron - Debrusk
Hall - Coyle - Frederic
Foligno - Nosek - Smith
Greer
Gryz - McAvoy
Lindholm - Carlo
Forbort - Clifton
Zboril - Reilly
and this team
Marchand - Zacha - Pasta
JVR - Coyle - Debrusk
Lucic - Geekie - Boqvist
Lauko - Frederic - Brown
Greer
Gryz-McAvoy
Lindholm - Carlo
Forbort - Shattenkirk
Zboril - Mitchell
is roughly 70 points. Basically the equivalent of removing one top line player and replacing them with a zero-zone defensive forward with next-to-no offensive ability. I know it's not that simple, but just to illustrate a point. The gap between Forward group pre-deadline 2023 and the group expected to break camp in Oct isn't massive from an offensive standpoint.
However, I think there is a pretty big gap between the group's play without the puck. I think the 2022-23 pre-deadline forward group is much stronger in that regard.
Based on that, this team's GA should go up.
I think the D is a wash from one group to the next. I'm confident Shattenkirk will be at least as good as Clifton was here. Unlike Clifton, Shattenkirk can take some strain off McAvoy or Lindholm at the top of the umbrella of PP 1. Which should allow the coaches to get more out of McAvoy and Lindholm 5 on 5 and PK duty. Clifton couldn't do that. I still don't think this D is built for playoff success. But it should be more than fine during the regular season.
So forwards offensively - small downgrade. Defensively- big downgrade.
D-Corps - pretty much the same as last year defensively. Slight upgrade offensively.
What about the goalies?
Ullmark is expected to be solid again, even if his numbers come down a bit. The hope here is Swayman is a year older and is a better goaltender in 2023-24 than he was last year. The Bruins still have the regular season secret sauce of having two extremely capable goaltenders they can effectively rotate one game to the next, keeping both fresh.
Here's the thing....the Bruins had 135 points last year, largely on the back of the pre-deadline group. They don't need 135 pts. to get into the playoffs. Florida got in with just 92.
Despite the downgrade in the forward group, I have to think this team is still capable of 100 pts. and a playoff spot. And if you get in, who the heck knows anymore.
Wild card, but I see any of the top 3 options as pretty equally likely.
Babajingo
Registered User
enough skill to make the PO (probably WC). But not enough depth to go anywhere in PO.
The one caveat is if one of the goalies gets real hot.
They really have to rely on everyone to have a career year (again) and for the cronies they signed to bounce back.
I see many years of mediocrity coming up. I would rather have a few years of crap and see what the young guys have.
Yes, the cap goes up next year, but it goes up for every team. Currently they are in the middle of the pack next year, in regards to cap space. Granted alot of the teams having more are crappy teams like Ari, Nash, Ana, ...
The one caveat is if one of the goalies gets real hot.
They really have to rely on everyone to have a career year (again) and for the cronies they signed to bounce back.
I see many years of mediocrity coming up. I would rather have a few years of crap and see what the young guys have.
Yes, the cap goes up next year, but it goes up for every team. Currently they are in the middle of the pack next year, in regards to cap space. Granted alot of the teams having more are crappy teams like Ari, Nash, Ana, ...
The defense and goaltending are both still best in the league IMO. Add to that the MVP runner up at forward. Those ingredients almost ensure playoffs with home ice advantage.
Mr. Make-Believe
The happy genius of my household
As of today? I have them missing the playoffs.
And it's not that I don't hear what those who believe the Bruins are still a top team in the East are saying. Valid arguments.
I just see this as being too much loss, both in terms of talent and culture, without enough youthful interjection and exuberance to counter-balance. I think we under-appreciate what Bergeron did for the team as a whole and what Krejci coming back for a song meant to the entire roster. I think having Hall on an effective third line created a lot of mismatches as well and we're not going to see each unit with the consistent ability to out-match their opponent.
We hit a tipping point last season (in my opinion, it was David Krejci) that turned a good team into a great one. And if nothing major changes before the season, I think we're ratcheted right down to not quite being good. Not bad, but not quite good enough for a playoff position.
And it's not that I don't hear what those who believe the Bruins are still a top team in the East are saying. Valid arguments.
I just see this as being too much loss, both in terms of talent and culture, without enough youthful interjection and exuberance to counter-balance. I think we under-appreciate what Bergeron did for the team as a whole and what Krejci coming back for a song meant to the entire roster. I think having Hall on an effective third line created a lot of mismatches as well and we're not going to see each unit with the consistent ability to out-match their opponent.
We hit a tipping point last season (in my opinion, it was David Krejci) that turned a good team into a great one. And if nothing major changes before the season, I think we're ratcheted right down to not quite being good. Not bad, but not quite good enough for a playoff position.
I'd definitely agree that the mental aspect is going to be a major factor. Captain and absolute legend of the club is gone, almost certainly alongside his fellow veteran star center, team is coming off a season that they will know in their hearts they can't repeat, facing an uncertain and pretty plainly transitory year where, as you said, a big part of what drove the team's culture for a long time is gone. Going to be a challenge for the guys to really get up and about mentally for this year.
How they handle that will determine a lot about about their prospects for the season. Another hot start would help. If they can do that and build some confidence in the current group, that could hold them in good stead down the road. If not it might well be some tough going.
AngryMilkcrates
End of an Era
- Jun 4, 2016
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Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
TCB
Registered User
I'd love him to acquire a first or even a 2nd or a 3rd next year to find out. I mean if he keeps trading picks away why even have a scouting staff ? Give them a chance Donny !!!
quietbruinfan
Salt and light
I have them just missing. They intentionally got much worse with the ancient three. They have maybe one prospect that will contribute in Merkulov, and that is doubtful. Throw in a sell-off that has to happen with nine UFAs and you have a playoff miss.
who knows?
It is way too early to speculate.
Last season many felt the Bs were screwed due to the players out with injury.
I hope they do well.
It is way too early to speculate.
Last season many felt the Bs were screwed due to the players out with injury.
I hope they do well.
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