When Will The USA Be The Country To Beat? (EDIT: Not just for WJHC)

[Old Navy Goat]

d

USA only dominates one sport and that's basketball. They aren't even the best in baseball anymore and no one outside of NA even plays football.

Well we were talking Canada vs US and for North American sports Canada can't even carry the US' jock outside of hockey. As for other world wide sports, the US makes the World Cup in Soccer while Canada hasn't, the US dominates in Track and Field, Swimming etc.

Unfortunately as an avid hockey fan, the sport lags far behind in popularity and players per capita

 

[triggrman]

Not for a while. Too many other sports that draw in athletic kids there. Until hockey can go right up against football, baseball, and basketball it's just not going to happen. Already have the disadvantage of being more expensive from an equipment point of view than most of those sports.

Someday, maybe.

This. My son loves hockey, he loves baseball, but when the neighborhood kids all play, it's usually football, baseball or Basketball. They do play roller hockey some, but not everyone can skate so the game is smaller.

Its tougher to set up goals, buy equipment, etc, than it is to grab a ball, or bat and glove.

 

[YMCMBYOLO]

Well we were talking Canada vs US and for North American sports Canada can't even carry the US' jock outside of hockey. As for other world wide sports, the US makes the World Cup in Soccer while Canada hasn't, the US dominates in Track and Field, Swimming etc.

Unfortunately as an avid hockey fan, the sport lags far behind in popularity and players per capita

By 2020/2024 Canada could be a top 3 country in basketball with Wiggins/Thompson/Bennett/Stauskas, and Ennis paving the way. In fact, I'd say Canada is catching the USA in basketball the same amount as the USA is catching Canada in hockey.

It's hilarious, people say Canadians are arrogant and cocky when we talk hockey but then you are cocky and arrogant about the USA in all other sports.

Let me paint something for you: For a country that has 35 million people, we are damn good at sports as we have the most athletes in hockey, a rising amount in basketball and a good amount in football and baseball. And then we dominate at the Winter Olympics. If Canada had the population and resources like the USA, we'd be just as good as you guys in most sports.

 

[CarlWinslow]

This. My son loves hockey, he loves baseball, but when the neighborhood kids all play, it's usually football, baseball or Basketball. They do play roller hockey some, but not everyone can skate so the game is smaller.

Its tougher to set up goals, buy equipment, etc, than it is to grab a ball, or bat and glove.

Which is why hockey will never be the dominant sport in the USA and why the USA won't ever catch Canada.

Similar to why China will never catch the USA at basketball or American Football. Given their population, they absolutely could if they wanted to but they just don't have the interest. Unless of course you guys think the US has better high end athletes than China too for some inexplicable reason.

 

[CarlWinslow]

Well we were talking Canada vs US and for North American sports Canada can't even carry the US' jock outside of hockey. As for other world wide sports, the US makes the World Cup in Soccer while Canada hasn't, the US dominates in Track and Field, Swimming etc.

Unfortunately as an avid hockey fan, the sport lags far behind in popularity and players per capita

What about curling and the other winter sports where Canada is superior?

Canada can't carry the US jock in track or soccer because we don't have the player base.

Its kind of like how China could stomp the US at pretty much any sport if they actually dedicated the resources to it. Its purely a population thing.

 

[basas]

never. Always a 2nd tier team compared to Canada, Sweden, Russia

And you base this on what...?

Which is why hockey will never be the dominant sport in the USA and why the USA won't ever catch Canada.

Who is arguing that hockey will become the dominant sport in the USA? It doesn't need to be for the US to be on par with Canada when it comes to producing top talent. With a large population, there are more then enough people to go around that there can be your football/baseball/basketball fans and still be a large number of hockey fans. And while that pool of hockey fans is growing, it doesn't mean that piece of the pie is ever going to be larger than those other sports. What exactly are you wanting the US to "catch"? What are you measuring? Number of registered players? (almost there) Percentage of NHL players? (continues to grow while Canada's declines). I don’t think the USA will ever become “the one and only hockey power”, but absolutely you are seeing the end of Canadian dominance and Canadians are clearly upset about it. As far as I’m concerned, the US has pretty well caught up to Canada when it comes to producing quality players, developing good programs and producing good national teams for international competition. No one country (Canada, USA, Sweden, Russia) dominates anymore.

And its laughable that some posters on here seem to believe the only kids who play hockey in the US are the ones who couldn't make it in other sports ("the leftovers" as one poster called them). I'm pretty sure most are playing because they love hockey, not because they tried out for the football, soccer, baseball, swimming and basketball teams and were cut from all of them so decided to give hockey a try.

 

[CarlWinslow]

And you base this on what...?



Who is arguing that hockey will become the dominant sport in the USA? It doesn't need to be for the US to be on par with Canada when it comes to producing top talent. With a large population, there are more then enough people to go around that there can be your football/baseball/basketball fans and still be a large number of hockey fans. And while that pool of hockey fans is growing, it doesn't mean that piece of the pie is ever going to be larger than those other sports. What exactly are you wanting the US to "catch"? Number of registered players? (almost there) Percentage of NHL players? (continues to grow while Canada's declines). I don’t think the USA will ever become “the one and only hockey powerâ€, but absolutely you are seeing the end of Canadian dominance and Canadians are clearly upset about it. As far as I’m concerned, the US has pretty well caught up to Canada when it comes to producing quality players, developing good programs and producing good national teams for international competition. No one country (Canada, USA, Sweden, Russia) dominates anymore.

And its laughable that some posters on here seem to believe the only kids who play hockey in the US are the ones who couldn't make it in other sports ("the leftovers" as one poster called them). I'm pretty sure most are playing because they love hockey, not because they tried out for the football, soccer, baseball, swimming and basketball teams and were cut from all of them so decided to give hockey a try.

The US currently has half as many players as Canada does in the NHL. They have one top 10 scorer while Canada has 5... But yeah, they've sure caught up???

Like I said, this whole thing is purely a numbers thing. The US has the much larger population, no doubt they will close the gap. It has nothing to do with Americans being better athletes than Canadians.

If China wanted to dominate hockey, they could. If China wanted to dominate American Football, they could do that too. Its just numbers and that's what irritates Canadians.

You guys come along and spout off in a way where it sounds like you are proclaiming the superiority of an American vs. a Canadian;rather than just population differences. That is why Canadians get upset.

 

[BigBen]

I don't know that Russia is a good comparison to the US...



Why Russia or a Scandinavian country?

Because of the climate and hockey culture.

 

[orangeandblack]

By 2020/2024 Canada could be a top 3 country in basketball with Wiggins/Thompson/Bennett/Stauskas, and Ennis paving the way. In fact, I'd say Canada is catching the USA in basketball the same amount as the USA is catching Canada in hockey.

It's hilarious, people say Canadians are arrogant and cocky when we talk hockey but then you are cocky and arrogant about the USA in all other sports.

Let me paint something for you: For a country that has 35 million people, we are damn good at sports as we have the most athletes in hockey, a rising amount in basketball and a good amount in football and baseball. And then we dominate at the Winter Olympics. If Canada had the population and resources like the USA, we'd be just as good as you guys in most sports.

No one will ever catch the US in basketball, or football for that matter. For basketball, the US is too big, with too many athletes, with such a low barrier to entry to play the sport. Brazil may get close, because its a huge country, favorable climate, and like soccer, basketball requires little to get games up and going. Canada just does not have the population to ever catch the US in basketball. They may become competitive, and beat them occasionally, overall its close to impossible to catch or overtake.

As far as hockey, the US will eventually catch and overtake Canada in hockey, just like they will eventually catch and overtake many of the soccer powers in the world. Its a huge country, with money, and tons of former professionals reside here, offering top notch training. Athletics are a huge part of the culture, different from China, India and several other large countries.

It may take another 20 years, but the US will overtake Canada in hockey, its a pure numbers game. Canada is stagnant as far hockey growth. Its maxed out, there will always be elite talent, and great depth, but there isn't much room to introduce more of the population to the sport. THe US on the other hand grows every year, and only a very very small percentage of youth athletes play the sport. With kids like Etem, Matthews, Chychrun, Seth Jones coming from non traditional areas, plus the grassroots efforts to introduce minorities to the sport, its only a matter of time. In 20 years, you'll have NHL rosters littered with kids from California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Jersey, (huge population states with money) along with the already established Minn, Mich, NY, Mass, IL, PA, MO, WI etc. Plus look at all the former Canadian and Euro NHLers who now have American kids. Sorry, theres just too much room for growth for it not to happen.

 

[VOB]

No one will ever catch the US in basketball, or football for that matter. For basketball, the US is too big, with too many athletes, with such a low barrier to entry to play the sport. Brazil may get close, because its a huge country, favorable climate, and like soccer, basketball requires little to get games up and going. Canada just does not have the population to ever catch the US in basketball. They may become competitive, and beat them occasionally, overall its close to impossible to catch or overtake.

As far as hockey, the US will eventually catch and overtake Canada in hockey, just like they will eventually catch and overtake many of the soccer powers in the world. Its a huge country, with money, and tons of former professionals reside here, offering top notch training. Athletics are a huge part of the culture, different from China, India and several other large countries.

It may take another 20 years, but the US will overtake Canada in hockey, its a pure numbers game. Canada is stagnant as far hockey growth. Its maxed out, there will always be elite talent, and great depth, but there isn't much room to introduce more of the population to the sport. THe US on the other hand grows every year, and only a very very small percentage of youth athletes play the sport. With kids like Etem, Matthews, Chychrun, Seth Jones coming from non traditional areas, plus the grassroots efforts to introduce minorities to the sport, its only a matter of time. In 20 years, you'll have NHL rosters littered with kids from California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Jersey, (huge population states with money) along with the already established Minn, Mich, NY, Mass, IL, PA, MO, WI etc. Plus look at all the former Canadian and Euro NHLers who now have American kids. Sorry, theres just too much room for growth for it not to happen.

The U.S. will always remain the country to beat in basketball simply because of its popularity relative to participation rates. Yes B.B. is fairly popular in large countries such as Brazil and China and those nations will certainly challenge U.S. supremacy (and will on occasion will an Olympic tourney) but the sport falls way behind Soccer in popularity. As a result the vast majority of their elite athletes will gravitate towards that sport over B.B.

Football is a given...no other country besides Canada and the U.S. play it and as you stated Canada's population is too small to ever threaten U.S. domination over the nation's most popular past time.

Hockey is a rather complex matter. The U.S. could over-take Canada in hockey but I see it as rather unlikely due to main factors. Cost and demographics. We all know that hockey is terribly expensive to participate in and that barrier limits it growth and popularity level. Hockey in the U.S is mainly confined to not just non-hispanic whites but upper middle class whites. You are probably aware that the white population is falling in the U.S. and non hispanic white children under the age of 5 are now the minority and their over-all numbers, (not just the percentage but raw numbers as well) will decline over the next few decades. Unless hockey makes serious inroads into the non-white population, look for hockey's growth to stall and eventually decline in the U.S.

In fact some say it already has...Here's a break down of some number...last season 300905 male players 18 and under participated in the sport...almost unchanged from the numbers five years ago in 08-09 where 300365 players participated and down from the 327543 that participated 10 years prior in 04.

Canada is facing some of the same issues relating to cost and demographics but it has a couple of factors in its favor. One, hockey is not as expensive to play in Canada and two, minority participation increases over time because the game is the most popular sport in that nation, attracting the most media attention and consequently the best athletes.

Everything is of course speculative but do not take it as a certainty that the U.S. will, due to population, overcome Canada in hockey or Brazil, Germany and the like in soccer.

 

[Anardil]

I've only read the 1st page, so if this has already been mentioned, I apologize. IMHO, the US will be the team to beat shortly after they take the sport seriously. By seriously, I mean that they have to devote their immense resources into the sport. Like they do with the "big three". If hockey ever comes close to reaching the interest level in the States that football, basketball, or baseball have, I guarantee that it will take much less than the nevers and the 25 years that many posters have stated.

 

[Crosbyfan]

When the US freezes over...

 

[Anardil]

It may take another 20 years, but the US will overtake Canada in hockey, its a pure numbers game. Canada is stagnant as far hockey growth. Its maxed out, there will always be elite talent, and great depth, but there isn't much room to introduce more of the population to the sport. THe US on the other hand grows every year, and only a very very small percentage of youth athletes play the sport. With kids like Etem, Matthews, Chychrun, Seth Jones coming from non traditional areas, plus the grassroots efforts to introduce minorities to the sport, its only a matter of time. In 20 years, you'll have NHL rosters littered with kids from California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Jersey, (huge population states with money) along with the already established Minn, Mich, NY, Mass, IL, PA, MO, WI etc. Plus look at all the former Canadian and Euro NHLers who now have American kids. Sorry, theres just too much room for growth for it not to happen.

I have to disagree with the part mentioning that growth is stagnant in Canada. Canada has massive growth potential if you take into consideration that Canada receives massive amounts of immigrants from non traditional hockey nations. You mention Seth Jones, I say PK Subban. There's also Nazem Kadri off the top of my head. Canada also has the edge when it comes to integrating the immigrants into the Canadian hockey culture than the US. As I mentioned in my previous post, the US will overtake Canada only if they start to take hockey seriously.

 

[JoeyBeans]

Which is why hockey will never be the dominant sport in the USA and why the USA won't ever catch Canada.

Similar to why China will never catch the USA at basketball or American Football. Given their population, they absolutely could if they wanted to but they just don't have the interest. Unless of course you guys think the US has better high end athletes than China too for some inexplicable reason.

 

[JoeyBeans]

What about curling and the other winter sports where Canada is superior?

Canada can't carry the US jock in track or soccer because we don't have the player base.

Its kind of like how China could stomp the US at pretty much any sport if they actually dedicated the resources to it. Its purely a population thing.

I think the answer is, Germany.

 

[DayNah]

When the US annexes Canada.

 

[Easton Modano Curve]

By 2020/2024 Canada could be a top 3 country in basketball with Wiggins/Thompson/Bennett/Stauskas, and Ennis paving the way. In fact, I'd say Canada is catching the USA in basketball the same amount as the USA is catching Canada in hockey.

Every Canadian basketball player you listed played high school basketball in USA. Canadian basketball has benefitted by having the USA close to develop their talent. It also helps the NBA is interested in the Canadian market which exposes more Canadian kids to the game.

Likewise, many USA hockey players benefit from Canadian major juniors as well growing up playing against Canadians in youth tournaments. USA has benefited from the expansion of Canada's game into warmer markets like California, Texas, and Arizona which are all producing draft picks now.

I think we make good neighbors.

USA probably won't approach Canada as long as football is king. Many of the best players never make it past Bantam. Most kids would rather represent their hometown under the Friday night lights in front of thousands than play club hockey in front of the parents or move away from home to advance a hockey career.

 

[Roof Daddy]

If you're talking in a given year, hard to say. Canada has always had an embarrassing level of depth (just look at the cuts from the last Olympic team - Giroux, Seguin - not to mention a Norris winner as your 6/7 D man in Subban), but depth doesn't usually factor in much. I'd say it could happen in the next 5-10 years where the US is the favourite for a particular tournament.

If you're talking a perennial favourite, I'm not sure it ever happens. No doubt there's a lot more kids in the US enrolling in hockey, many in non-traditional, warm weather markets, but there's only so many rinks and so much ice-time to spread around in those markets. In some places in Alberta and Saskatchewan you could have an outdoor rink operate up to 4+ months. Maybe in a real cold year in Minnesota you might match that? Not to mention hockey is more or less "the" sport nationwide. I'm not sure there's a single state you could say that about. Football trumps everything down there.

Point is, despite the numbers game there is nowhere near the access to outdoor rinks as there is in Canada. You look at many of the good players from Canada, nearly all of them had their own back yard rink or lived within walking distance of an outdoor rink. There's significant value in the opportunity to play/practice every night. There might be more kids enrolling in the US, but I'd assume it's more grass roots stuff than anything. How many of those kids will step on the ice more than twice a week?

 

[Rob]

I'd say hockey is pretty much as big in Finland as it is in Canada. Every Finnish person I meet travelling seems to be able to talk hockey in depth.

I'm not sure the USA will ever become the team to beat.

Even if hockey never becomes a popular sport in the US they can still become a dominant force due to population size. Even if only a couple hundred thousand more kids take up hockey in the US that could be enough to turn them into a dominant power.

It is more likely to just even out where any of the big 4-5 could win any tournament.

It's pretty much there now.

Agreed. Last two Olympics Canada only beat the US by one goal in both games. Unfortunately some of my fellow Canadians seem to think that it was inevitable that Canada beat the US regardless of the score.

 

[Rob]

I've only read the 1st page, so if this has already been mentioned, I apologize. IMHO, the US will be the team to beat shortly after they take the sport seriously. By seriously, I mean that they have to devote their immense resources into the sport..

If the US took hockey seriously like they do the other sports they will dominate international hockey like they do basketball.

Anyway I don't think hockey has to become that much more popular in order for the US to become "the team to beat". Like I said in the post about it would probably only take a few more hundred thousand kids playing the game for that to happen.


It would not surprise me if 25 years from now the US was the clear cut #1 in hockey. So I say to my fellow Canadians lets enjoy our reign at the top for now. Because it is going to suck when Uncle Sam surpasses us.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

If the US took hockey seriously like they do the other sports they will dominate international hockey like they do basketball.

They take baseball seriously (their "National Pastime") and don't dominate a "Best on Best" competition. In fact, I believe there has been 3 "Best on Best" and they have yet to medal.

More Americans play soccer than almost any other nation. How has that turned out?

Anyway I don't think hockey has to become that much more popular in order for the US to become "the team to beat". Like I said in the post about it would probably only take a few more hundred thousand kids playing the game for that to happen.

It would not surprise me if 25 years from now the US was the clear cut #1 in hockey. So I say to my fellow Canadians lets enjoy our reign at the top for now. Because it is going to suck when Uncle Sam surpasses us.

I heard this 25 years ago and it hasn't happened.

 

[Dynamo81]

And then we dominate at the Winter Olympics. If Canada had the population and resources like the USA, we'd be just as good as you guys in most sports.

Not sure what you mean by Dominate. Canada only dominated one Winter Olympics
Last 5 Olympics
1998 - 4th on Medal Tally (USA 5th, Russia 3rd)
2002 - 4th on Medal Tally (USA 3rd, Russia 5th)
2006 - 5th on Medal Tally (USA 2nd, Russia 3rd)
2010 - 1st on Medal Tally (USA 3rd, Russia 11th lol)
2014 - 3rd on Medal Tally (USA 4th, Russia 1st)

USA dominates world sport (Just look at the Summer and Winter Olympics), Russia closely follow them overall (Summer and Winter).

Norway has a population of 5 million and perform relatively similar to Canada for Winter and Summer Olympic medal standings. Population is not always the best measuring stick.

 

[Rob]

They take baseball seriously (their "National Pastime") and don't dominate a "Best on Best" competition. In fact, I believe there has been 3 "Best on Best" and they have yet to medal.

Actually baseball has fallen in popularity over the past couple of decades in the US. Participation amongst African Americans is especially low.

More Americans play soccer than almost any other nation. How has that turned out?

How serious do they take it though? More Canadians play soccer than hockey for example.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Hockey in the USA has really grown and I'm thinking they are pretty close to being the country to beat. Here's just some random stuff that leads me to believe USA could surpass Canada in the near future. With their population, I'm not sure Canada will ever be able to regain their status as the hockey powerhouse of the world.

In 1990-1991 they had under 200,000 registered hockey players. Now they have over 500,000.?

I heard this since the early 1990's and it hasn't happened yet. In fact, Damien Cox wrote a series of articles about this for the Toronto Star in 1995(?). He predicted, within 10 years (by 2005), the U.S. would dominate hockey. How has that turned out?

In fact, you could make the case that Canada has dominated hockey, from 2000 to 2015 (and likely up to 2018), like no other country has before.

In the 2014, NHL entry draft, they had 67 players drafted. Canada had 77. (As per NHL.com. Wiki says 64-80) Canada had 6 of the top 7 picks but USA still managed 5 first rounders. In 2015, USA could have 2 of top 3 picks.

In the 2010 NHL Entry draft, the USA had 13 of the first 32 picks.?

You sure like to cherry pick your stats.

Take a look at the NHL drafts since 2007 - from 2008 to 2014. 2010 was the only draft where you could say the American had a good draft and most of the 13 players you mentioned have been average.

Cam Fowler (from Windsor) is the best of the lot. Brock Nelson is having a hell of a year, this year, but it is his first. Feel free to go thru the rest of the 13 because if you are looking to support your argument, you will be disappointed.

As for the 5 first round American picks from the 2014 draft, all 5 were from 15 to 20. In 5 years we'll see how many had any impact in the NHL.

The USA has won the WJHC twice since Canada was last able to do it. This isn't always the best indication since some top players are often in the NHL but it still shows that Canada is no longer the dominant country it once was.

I probably missed some stuff but do others agree with me? When will this happen? 10 years? Less?

I disagree and your timeline is silly and uninformed. I know you are trying to make a case but try to be objective.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Actually baseball has fallen in popularity over the past couple of decades in the US. Participation amongst African Americans is especially low.

Still more Americans play baseball than any other country. Far more play baseball than hockey. Your logic is not sound and like the OP, you are picking and choosing the stats that support your argument and dismissing the rest. You can't dismiss what doesn't support your argument.

How serious do they take it though?

Many claim Americans don't take hockey seriously.