What's wrong with Connor McDavid this season? Lowest PPG and GPG output in ~7-8 years for him

[bambamcam4ever]

McDavid is 51st in 5v5 scoring rate this season

 

[eXile3]

I would wait to see him in the playoffs before putting the nail in his coffin. Looked pretty good in the 4 nations tournament.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Similar to Matthews, McDavid is certainly playing through a nagging injury this season.

 

[daver]

Similar to Matthews, McDavid is certainly playing through a nagging injury this season.

How can you tell?

 

[Dallas Winston]

It is clear now that the differences in their art ross counts was and always has been injuries. Also at 28 crosby was third in scoring. First team center and 2nd in hart voting. At age 27 both were third in scoring. Also the first season crosby played 75+ games and failed to secure a top 3 scoring finish he was 30 years old. So let us see this year n the upcoming ones.

 

[Video Nasty]

How can you tell?

Probably watches every game of the guy’s career. Anyone who does can tell you he’s been battling nagging injuries for the past 16 months.

Difference between McDavid and Crosby is that McDavid’s career ranking doesn’t rely heavily on some on the seasons he hasn’t won significant hardware (though he did win the Conn Smythe last year) because he has won so much and proven so much otherwise.

It is clear now that the differences in their art ross counts was and always has been injuries. Also at 28 crosby was third in scoring. First team center and 2nd in hart voting. At age 27 both were third in scoring. Also the first season crosby played 75+ games and failed to secure a top 3 scoring finish he was 30 years old. So let us see this year n the upcoming ones.

We can make up any parameters we like.

It took Crosby until his 11th season to be gifted a Conn Smythe.

Only took McDavid until his 9th to rightfully win his.

 

[sena]

How long does Crosby get credit for made up stats and things that never took place?
2 Art Ross......2 thats all. He isn't in the greatest ever conversation nor is he top 5.
He was constantly one of the top players while he played. one of

 

[Dallas Winston]

Probably watches every game of the guy’s career. Anyone who does can tell you he’s been battling nagging injuries for the past 16 months.

Difference between McDavid and Crosby is that McDavid’s career ranking doesn’t rely heavily on some on the seasons he hasn’t won significant hardware (though he did win the Conn Smythe last year) because he has won so much and proven so much otherwise.



We can make up any parameters we like.

It took Crosby until his 11th season to be gifted a Conn Smythe.

Only took McDavid until his 9th to rightfully win his.

Does it irk you that the only championship that mcdavid has won as a senior a 37 year old crosby tied him in team scoring?

 

[koyvoo]

This has become a battle of the wits between the unarmed.

 

[ViD]

It is clear now that the differences in their art ross counts was and always has been injuries. Also at 28 crosby was third in scoring. First team center and 2nd in hart voting. At age 27 both were third in scoring. Also the first season crosby played 75+ games and failed to secure a top 3 scoring finish he was 30 years old. So let us see this year n the upcoming ones.

Funny enough, Crosby’s biggest competition was also his teammate

 

[TIGERCOOL]

How can you tell?

Probably watches every game of the guy’s career. Anyone who does can tell you he’s been battling nagging injuries for the past 16 months.

I only watch him occasionally (closer look during 4 nations) and it's still pretty obvious to me. Something's off with him. It's difficult to pinpoint, but my instinct says a back issue that's just bad enough to impact everything but not bad enough to warrant time out of the lineup - or perhaps won't predictably improve from that because backs are weird

 

[Video Nasty]

Does it irk you that the only championship that mcdavid has won as a senior a 37 year old crosby tied him in team scoring?

Does it irk you that you know you’ve already said after Game 5 of the 2024 SCF that McDavid surpassed Crosby in your eyes?

 

[Dallas Winston]

Does it irk you that you know you’ve already said after Game 5 of the 2024 SCF that McDavid surpassed Crosby in your eyes?

Sometimes people say things. Opinions can change especially in the height of a moment.

 

[TheGuiminator]

There's nothing wrong with McDavid, really. Like I said after his peak season in 2022-23, what you're likely going to see in the following years is a steady, natural decline and that's exactly what's happening (just like with every player in the history of the game). There might also be a puck luck factor, where the puck just "doesn't go in" like it used to for some reason.

Granted, he's still the best player in the league and will likely win another or two Art Ross trophies by the end of his career. He’s just not a 150 point player anymore, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to hit that mark every season. Only Wayne Gretzky could put up those insane numbers for a decade straight.

 

[independent observer]

give McDavid a break… he needs a sabbatical and he deserves it!

 

[TIGERCOOL]

There's nothing wrong with McDavid, really. Like I said after his peak season in 2022-23, what you're likely going to see in the following years is a steady, natural decline and that's exactly what's happening (just like with every player in the history of the game). There might also be a puck luck factor, where the puck just "doesn't go in" like it used to for some reason.

Granted, he's still the best player in the league and will likely win another or two Art Ross trophies by the end of his career. He’s just not a 150 point player anymore, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to hit that mark every season. Only Wayne Gretzky could put up those insane numbers for a decade straight.

MacKinnon just put up 140 points, by far his best, in his 11th NHL season. McDavid is currently in his 10th season. plenty of player set their best totals a bit later in their careers. Patrick Kane comes to mind, I think he posted career highs in his 13th season.

We can start talking about significant decline when McDavid is 32/33. Not 28. 150 points is incredibly lofty, and I don't expect him to top it, but his current production is not where it should be.

 

[independent observer]

There's nothing wrong with McDavid, really. Like I said after his peak season in 2022-23, what you're likely going to see in the following years is a steady, natural decline and that's exactly what's happening (just like with every player in the history of the game). There might also be a puck luck factor, where the puck just "doesn't go in" like it used to for some reason.

Granted, he's still the best player in the league and will likely win another or two Art Ross trophies by the end of his career. He’s just not a 150 point player anymore, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to hit that mark every season. Only Wayne Gretzky could put up those insane numbers for a decade straight.

I think we go too far to say he is in a decline… It‘s clear individually he had way better seasons but players performance can fluctuate… there are many factors that influence a players performance… I wouldn‘t be surprised to see another 140 or 150 plus season if things come toghether…

 

[benfranklin]

Dude needs PP's to be the "best player n the world."

 

[TheGuiminator]

MacKinnon just put up 140 points, by far his best, in his 11th NHL season. McDavid is currently in his 10th season. plenty of player set their best totals a bit later in their careers. Patrick Kane comes to mind, I think he posted career highs in his 13th season.

We can start talking about significant decline when McDavid is 32/33. Not 28. 150 points is incredibly lofty, and I don't expect him to top it, but his current production is not where it should be.

But this isnt a significant decline, it’s a steady, natural decline, which is normal for a generational player.

The players you mentioned are nowhere near McDavids level, and it took them a while to truly find their gear. By the time they did, McDavid had already double, let alone tripled their individual hardware.

Generational players tend to peak in their early to mid-20s, just look at Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, Orr, & Ovechkin

 

[Hank Plank]

give McDavid a break… he needs a sabbatical and he deserves it!

Why?

 

[The Panther]

Dude needs PP's to be the "best player n the world."

You're totally wrong, of course, as back in 2017 and 2018 and 2019 and 2021, he was leading the NHL in ES points (by huge margins in 2018 and 2021).

You bring up an interesting point for me, however, which relates to McDavid's recent decline in ES point scoring.

Starting in 2021-22, he just hasn't been as productive at ES. That was the year the Flames' big-line had its huge year, and (in just 2 more games played) the late Johnny Gaudreau outscored McDavid at ES by 12 points. Then in 2022-23, despite having arguably his best-ever season, McDavid was easily outpaced (and outscored, just) at ES by MacKinnon but also by Pastrnak. Last year, McDavid was maybe the best ES point producer, but he was basically in a three-way tie with MacKinnon and Kucherov. So far this season, he's probably the 4th or 5th best ES point producer. (He has missed six games already this season.)

The Oilers' PP suddenly became awesome around 2021-22, so that partly explains why a bit more of McDavid's effort and point-production shifted to the PP, but otherwise I can't really explain why this minor shift started happening when he was around 24-25 years old, right at the scoring peak age.

In his prime, Gretzky was by far the greatest ES point producer ever, and even after a couple of semi-serious injuries and his 'trade' to L.A., he remained the greatest ES point producer in League history, up to 1991 when he was 30. That September, he was injured by Gary Suter at the Canada Cup and overnight, Gretzky's ES point production plummetted to human levels (to the point where, in 1991-92, he was suddenly matched in ES production by... Ray Ferraro). Somewhat the same applied to Mario Lemieux -- though never as productive as peak-Wayne at ES, Mario by 1995-96 was getting nearly half his points on the PP, so the shift kind of occurred.

It's very natural for ES point production to decline in this way as elite scorers get a bit older and slow down, etc., but in McDavid's case I can't really explain why his ES point semi-dominance kind of ended when he was around 24 or 25. The Oilers were only getting better and his teammates probably stronger. I guess as long as you're getting it done on the PP to compensate, it doesn't really matter (like when you score 153 points), but I notice the difference in recent seasons.

As to this year... meh. Nobody in Oiler-land cares about McDavid's regular season stats anymore, least of all him. Until a few weeks ago, he was still leading the NHL in points-per-game vs. actuall goalies (discounting empty-net points, which MacKinnon and Kucherov are more adept at getting), so it's not like he's a bum or anything. His mid-winter passion probably went more into the 4-Nations thing than into another regular season game vs. Anaheim or whatever. That being said, he has been wildly inconsistent this season. He had a crappy start, along with the team, and then he was the best player / scorer in the League for about 30 games or something, and then a slow-down, and now he's crashed and burned over the past month to the point where, at ES points-per-minute, I think Jeff Skinner was outscoring him since January...

But none of this matters until the playoffs start.

 

[stevo61]

Took him in my fantasy league. Sorry Oilers fans

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

Players have up and down seasons in their careers, even the best ones. Not worried for McDavid.

 

[Offtheboard412]

Funny enough, Crosby’s biggest competition was also his teammate

And a superstar Russian winger. Kind of funny the same scenario repeated.

 

[TheLegend27]

You seem to be forgetting that Crosby got his team to the SCF in 2009 with a better performance than McDavid's in 2024 without significant point shares with Malkin and with clearly inferior ES linemates. To be fair, McDavid's performance against the Stars was his best playoff series of his career, IMO, as he did it without Drai on his line and without the Oilers playing all out offense. His SCF was as good as Crosby's in 2008; a good one but not good enough to win. He didn't show up until it was too late in Game 3 and that lead it being too late in the series. Full marks to McDavid for getting the team within two games of the Cup with a great Game 5; the same thing that Crosby did on 2008.

To paint the 2016 Pens as winning despite Crosby's lower than expected production is one of the biggest fallacies on HF.

I'm sure the Oilers would love to rely on McDavid playing a well rounded game where they can put a career 3rd liner and an AHL callup who was terrible defensively on his line to create much needed depth as the Pens did 2016. That team was designed to roll three scoring lines so the HBK line could exploit 3rd lines and #2/#3 d-pairings. They were used exclusively for offence. It was as important that the other team's loaded #1 lines didn't score as it was for Crosby's line to score. Crosby notably stepped up in key games and key moments during that run and was the centrepiece of a team that was arguably the 2nd best Cup winner since the 2005 lockout.

After shaking off the effects of Mike Johnston's ill advised reigning in of the Pens offense in December 2015, Crosby proceeded to lead the lead in scoring the rest of the way that year, lead the World Cup in scoring, win the Rocket while leading in PPG for most of the year, add another Conn Smythe, and add another superstar level offensive performance in the 2018 playoffs.

Do you honestly think he forgot how to play elite offensive hockey during the 2016 playoffs?

He didn't forget how to play offense at all, it’s that others stepped up to cover for his slump in production. The HBK line preformed way better than it was supposed to, even with being matched up against 3rd liners. Now with foresight, it can be used as an excuse to explain Crosby’s slump. Sure, Crosby deserves credit for holding off the loaded first lines, but there were too many occasions during the playoffs as a whole that he was a non-factor, such as the Capital series(2 pts, 7 games). That series was won in spite of Crosby, since he didn’t shut down Ovechkin’s line, and certainly didn’t live up to his cap hit offensively. Sheary isn’t a defensive savant, but right winger Hornqvist was very solid on that end and picked up the slack. Sheary came up big in the finals(props for elevating him), and he stayed on Crosby’s line because of how hot the HBK line was - there was simply no one to replace him with.

In 5 on 5 situations in the playoffs, Kessel was superior in the following categories: goals per 60 minutes (0.9 for Kessel vs 0.5 for Crosby), assists per 60 minutes (1.1 vs 0.8), points per 60 minutes (2.1 vs 1.3), high quality scoring opportunities generated per 60 minutes (4.9 vs 3.6), and shots per 60 minutes (12.2 vs 7.6). As for power plays, Kessel and Crosby each had 11 points, but Kessel had five goals compared to Crosby’s three. My point is, the Oilers can’t put an AHLer and a 3rd liner with McDavid since they don’t have a Phil Kessel(RNH?) who can drive an HBK type line. Looking that the stats above, Kessel outperformed the best player in the world(not impact), and I doubt anyone can do that for the Oilers if they were to try and “balance out” the depth.