What's a fair CAP HIT for Matthews over the next 5 years?

[authentic]

One better than Matthews has provided. Matthews is a great player but if Leafs fans want the Leafs to pay Matthews likes he’s elite, go for it. Won’t end up successful

He is elite lol

 

[Connor McConnor]

Draisaitl’s contract was signed after the 2016/17 season, at that point in his career, he was a very good player, but clearly hadn’t established what Matthews has at this point in his career.

This reply makes zero sense when it comes to contracts. Drai is a steal and AM has fully maximized ever dollar he could make.

 

[pcruz]

Which of McDavid, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Tkachuk, Makar (just to name a few) is he better than?

Oh. Selke. Yes. Definitely not a flawed voting system. He finished higher than Danault and Aho in Selke voting. Would you say he is better defensively than these 2 as well?

What exactly makes him above average defensively? Cause by most metrics he is not close.to Tkachuk.

What metrics do you consider when determining how good a player is defensively?

I'm most genuinely curious.

 

[McVespa99]

Tkachuk? LMFAO get out of here.

I would take Tkachuk on my team ahead of Matthews in a heartbeat. Im sure lots of non Leafs fans would.

 

[Seanaconda]

I don't think he is the best player but is close enough to the top his contract should leapfrog the past highest (mac) .

McDavid will take back top spot in a minute.

I don't think this is exactly the range people would be worried about tho more like plus minus 15mill I think is a better conversation

 

[Garbageyuk]

Ok buddy. You can join Haatley et. al in your safe little bubble where track record, individual stats and hardware, etc. don’t really mean anything.

I will join him because it’s the correct take. Tkachuk showed more in 1 season last year than Matthews has in his entire career. Your boy is a soft choker who doesn’t give a shit and won’t do what it takes to win in the postseason. Enjoy.

 

[Toby91ca]

This reply makes zero sense when it comes to contracts. Drai is a steal and AM has fully maximized ever dollar he could make.

Trust me, you don't need to explain to me how contracts work (I've read many NHL player contracts) and understand many different circumstances that are considered, etc. going into determining what kind of a contract is going to be agreed. The simple fact is, yes, Draisaitl's current contract is a steal, but he signed it after his EL contract and at that point, he signed for 8 years at $8.5M.....at that point he played 191 games, had 50 goals and 137pts, Matthews played 212 games, scored 111 goals and had 205pts on his EL deal....he then signed a 5 year contract. For Leon, it was the classic....we think this guy is going to be really good, let's lock him up long term, buyout some of his UFA years and hope it becomes a steal by the end....which was a good bet as increase in development combined with increased cap = great deal, but they don't always work out.

Agree with you, Matthews went with the 5 year deal after EL contract and got $11.6M, keep in mind, at that point, he had already significantly outproduced Draisaitl and we are talking about 2 years later as well....but no question, not as good of a deal and now Matthews is hitting UFA earlier than than Draisaitl.

So, my point is, using Draisaitl's contract as a comparable simply doesn't work at all, for probably many reasons, but 3 HUGE reasons:

1- it was 6 years ago (7 really if you considered Matthews contract won't be until next year) - need to considered how much market has moved....which is a lot.

2 - Draisaitl's career at that point was 191gms 50g and 137pts, Matthews is at 481gms, 299g and 542pts.

3 - Maybe the biggest reason of all, Matthews current contract expiry will leave him as a UFA....Draisaitl was a RFA.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Trust me, you don't need to explain to me how contracts work (I've read many NHL player contracts) and understand many different circumstances that are considered, etc. going into determining what kind of a contract is going to be agreed. The simple fact is, yes, Draisaitl's current contract is a steal, but he signed it after his EL contract and at that point, he signed for 8 years at $8.5M.....at that point he played 191 games, had 50 goals and 137pts, Matthews played 212 games, scored 111 goals and had 205pts on his EL deal....he then signed a 5 year contract. For Leon, it was the classic....we think this guy is going to be really good, let's lock him up long term, buyout some of his UFA years and hope it becomes a steal by the end....which was a good bet as increase in development combined with increased cap = great deal, but they don't always work out.

Agree with you, Matthews went with the 5 year deal after EL contract and got $11.6M, keep in mind, at that point, he had already significantly outproduced Draisaitl and we are talking about 2 years later as well....but no question, not as good of a deal and now Matthews is hitting UFA earlier than than Draisaitl.

So, my point is, using Draisaitl's contract as a comparable simply doesn't work at all, for probably many reasons, but 3 HUGE reasons:

1- it was 6 years ago (7 really if you considered Matthews contract won't be until next year) - need to considered how much market has moved....which is a lot.

2 - Draisaitl's career at that point was 191gms 50g and 137pts, Matthews is at 481gms, 299g and 542pts.

3 - Maybe the biggest reason of all, Matthews current contract expiry will leave him as a UFA....Draisaitl was a RFA.

Definitely not a comparable at all so I agree with you there. I’m just simply pointing out this was a rare Chia W and the Leafs got bent over letting him do a 5 year deal. FYI I voted the max

 

[Toby91ca]

Definitely not a comparable at all so I agree with you there. I’m just simply pointing out this was a rare Chia W and the Leafs got bent over letting him do a 5 year deal. FYI I voted the max

You can look at it either way, Matthews bet on himself and went with shorter deal, figuring he would show that he’s the real deal and will be worth more when he gets to the next contract….so risk in signing shorter for him….but also risky for teams to sign max length deals so soon, but the reward can be very good by ending up getting a player on really good deal towards the end…..for both its the usual, if you want high reward you have to go with high risk

 

[notbias]

it is so crazy to me how many people compare numbers instead of CH% and think there is any logic behind it.

I would take Tkachuk on my team ahead of Matthews in a heartbeat. Im sure lots of non Leafs fans would.

why? because Bobrovsky carried him to the finals?

playoff beast vs playoff no show is the argument I am sure. Which is which?

 

[The Grim Reaper]

He is elite lol

Not in the playoffs.

Career
Regular season: 1.13 PPG
Playoffs: 0.88 PPG

His goals per game in the playoffs is even worse than Guentzel, who was just rated on HFB’s as the 21st best winger in the league.

Matthews: 0.44 goals per game in the playoffs (50 games)
Guentzel: 0.57 goals per game in the playoffs (58 games)

 

[DueDiligence]

Fair ain't got nothing to do with it. It's his time to cash in. Looking at $13.5 million per. And in the next couple of years he'll get passed by 5 or so guys.

 

[Mr Bill Waters]

13.5x4 is fair and what he'll get. Every offer above this post is a low ball. He's top 2-3 player.

 

[Haatley]

it is so crazy to me how many people compare numbers instead of CH% and think there is any logic behind it.



why? because Bobrovsky carried him to the finals?

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playoff beast vs playoff no show is the argument I am sure. Which is which?

Oh, did Bobrovsky score 4 game winning goals in the playoffs? Did he score 100 points in the regular season? Did Bob score 24 points in 20 playoff games? Would the Panthers have made it to the final without either one of these guys? Florida made the playoffs in SPITE of the poor goaltending they received.

Bobrovsky carried him... lol. That's a good one.

 

[Zero Requiem]

Taking playoff performance into account, his current cap hit is already hard to justify.

 

[Fatass]

Fairness to the Leafs doesn’t seem to be on the Matthews agenda. If that was the case he’d sign an 8 year deal for less than Mavkinnon.
But Matthews clearly negotiated his previous deal (with the no move starting one year before the term was up) so he’d have all the leverage on this deal. Matthews will sign for 14 mil per or higher. And the term will be 3-4 years. What choice do the Leafs have other than giving Auston his contract demands?

 

[bobholly39]

Not in the playoffs.

Career
Regular season: 1.13 PPG
Playoffs: 0.88 PPG

His goals per game in the playoffs is even worse than Guentzel, who was just rated on HFB’s as the 21st best winger in the league.

Matthews: 0.44 goals per game in the playoffs (50 games)
Guentzel: 0.57 goals per game in the playoffs (58 games)

Weird way to try and make a point. Guentzel is 3rd in goals per game behind only McDavid and Drai in playoffs for past 10+ years. Painting him as some type of scrub is stupid. A lot of players are behind him for playoffs goalscoring too.

 

[Toby91ca]

Weird way to try and make a point. Guentzel is 3rd in goals per game behind only McDavid and Drai in playoffs for past 10+ years. Painting him as some type of scrub is stupid. A lot of players are behind him for playoffs goalscoring too.

Yeah, that was a strange one “his goals per game in the playoffs is even worse than Guentzl”….what does that mean? Does he know that Guentzl’s gpg in playoffs translates to 48 goals over an 82 game regular season?

The problem with looking at Matthews or any player o know teams that haven’t been able to get over the hump yet is that their playoff stats are likely skewed (both positive and negative)….if you are playing less than 7 games, only takes a couple unproductive games to make your stats look bad….same hand….a hot streak to make you look like a super hero, both of which likely evens out over the long haul if there is a long haul

 

[Maplebeasts]

I will join him because it’s the correct take. Tkachuk showed more in 1 season last year than Matthews has in his entire career. Your boy is a soft choker who doesn’t give a shit and won’t do what it takes to win in the postseason. Enjoy.

You are wrong. So is Haatley, McVespa etc. Even with Tkachuk’s playoff showing this year he still has worse career playoff stats. Get back to me when Tkachuk has more than one comparable season and wins some hardware.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

MacK signed his contract extension just last year (they were probably expecting the Cap bump to happen at the end of this year), and he is the better player.

Makes no sense for Matthews to get more.

Mack is underpaid.

Star players should be making closer to the max, imo.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Glad to see people recognizing how Mack is underpaid/took a slight discount now. He outscored Matthews by almost 30 points in less games played.

 

[Peat]

a) Tkachuk put in a great playoff performance that carried a lot of load but Bobrovsky was absolutely the most valuable player there and the guy that did the most to let everyone on that Panthers team make the finals. Tkachuk's playoff stats shouldn't be dismissed but, yes, Bobrovsky carried that team.

b) This is a good example of the randomness of the playoffs, which is why pay doesn't key off of it, which makes this whole argument mildly bemusing.

c) I'm also inclined to agree with the idea that one mega run doesn't change the fact that generally Tkachuk doesn't provide great playoff bang for buck and elevating him past Matthews because of 20-odd games doesn't make sense.

d) I don't get the push for star players being paid as much as possible given how this tends to result in less cups for the teams that do. You can argue that if everyone was paying their stars it would even out, but I think it would merely increase the competitive edge given to teams who've somehow got their star on a good contract due to ELCs to unexpected breakouts.

 

[StreetHawk]

Fair for both parties (Leafs and A.Matthews) of course.
Used 5yrs as that's what he signed for last time.

2023-2024 forward cap hits over 11.000 for reference:
MacKinnon - 12.600
McDavid - 12.500
Panarin - 11.643
Matthews - 11.640
Pastrnak - 11.250

Edit: added what's below after NyQuil asked for more context:

Here's the cap% each deal was for, and what it equates to for 2023-24:
MacKinnon - 15.27% (~12.750)
McDavid - 16.67% (~13.920)
Panarin - 14.29% (~11.930)
Matthews - 14.64% (~12.225)
Pastrnak - 13.64% (~11.400)

And finally what they equate to if the salary cap was 87.675 which is expected in 2024-25:
MacKinnon ~13.900
McDavid ~14.615
Panarin ~12.530
Matthews ~12.830
Pastrnak ~11.960

Age matters. Matthews would be 8 years into his career and be 26 (with a late birthday). So, if he's doing 5 years, that's most of his remaining prime years to age 31 (going on 32 when the regular season begins on his deal after that), if you expect prime to end around 33/34 years of age.

How much risk does Matthews want to take and what is that risk worth? Landy before age 30 has a wrecked knee. Couturier missed all of last season and over half the prior season with injuries in his late 20's. So, if he hits the market again at 31 with injuries like that, he's not getting another big contract. So, he'd want to get paid big for these prime years.

MacKinnon was 28 when he did his deal, which would take him to 36. Pasta, is also 28 with his new deal. McDavid and Eichel won't start their new deals until 29. Panarin was 27 (turning 28 in Oct) when he got his deal.

Would fully expect Matthews to reset the bar completely if he opts for 5 years. Easily over $13 mill per. Probably into $14 mill per.

 

[ole ole]

I hope he becomes the highest paid player in the league. Would be nice to see him demand the max allowed.

 

[The90]

Trust me, you don't need to explain to me how contracts work (I've read many NHL player contracts) and understand many different circumstances that are considered, etc. going into determining what kind of a contract is going to be agreed. The simple fact is, yes, Draisaitl's current contract is a steal, but he signed it after his EL contract and at that point, he signed for 8 years at $8.5M.....at that point he played 191 games, had 50 goals and 137pts, Matthews played 212 games, scored 111 goals and had 205pts on his EL deal....he then signed a 5 year contract. For Leon, it was the classic....we think this guy is going to be really good, let's lock him up long term, buyout some of his UFA years and hope it becomes a steal by the end....which was a good bet as increase in development combined with increased cap = great deal, but they don't always work out.

Agree with you, Matthews went with the 5 year deal after EL contract and got $11.6M, keep in mind, at that point, he had already significantly outproduced Draisaitl and we are talking about 2 years later as well....but no question, not as good of a deal and now Matthews is hitting UFA earlier than than Draisaitl.

So, my point is, using Draisaitl's contract as a comparable simply doesn't work at all, for probably many reasons, but 3 HUGE reasons:

1- it was 6 years ago (7 really if you considered Matthews contract won't be until next year) - need to considered how much market has moved....which is a lot.

2 - Draisaitl's career at that point was 191gms 50g and 137pts, Matthews is at 481gms, 299g and 542pts.

3 - Maybe the biggest reason of all, Matthews current contract expiry will leave him as a UFA....Draisaitl was a RFA.

Lmao. Calling bullshit.

Those puppy’s are 2 inches thick and have about 50 places to sign / initial. Don’t pretend you’re something you’re not