Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[Sypher04]

If Dubas hadn’t got Tavares for 11 million even paying Marner 11 the hope would be for a better balanced cap distribution instead of the proven failure model of 50% of the cap spent on 4 similar forwards

Okay this I agree with.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

By far da biggest mistake was hiring a rook GM and then giving 4 guys half of CAP .. to me it is 1A and 1B .. but those are both on Shanny so he must go

 

[LeafEgo]

No, but assuming he was indeed talking about contracts, lifting the ceiling on the existing internal contracts doesn't actually mean anything. It's a simple statement that the team's biggest contract got bigger. If/How/Why that impacted the entire RFA signing saga is a complete unknown, and not addressed at all, and yet people are extrapolating their own narratives about this. Meanwhile, we ignore actual information being reported about things that actually impacted the negotiations. His quote isn't even a statement about the eventual contracts. It's a statement about the early 2018 offseason, and whatever happened then was pretty irrelevant by the time the contracts were signed anyway.

Maybe we'll learn more when the book actually comes out and we're not trying to extrapolate mountains out of one vague quote, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Whatever weird shenanigans may or may not have occurred behind the scenes, we managed to lock up our core players to pretty average post-ELC contracts despite a strained relationship and offer sheet threats, and neither that nor a GM taking a rare opportunity to improve his team should be anywhere close to this list.

There could be an argument that we should have pushed harder to sign them early, but Lou is the one that set that tone, and we don't know if or how it would have been possible. And it still wouldn't come close to some of the mistakes this team made throughout the cap era anyway.

So we don't if he was talking about contracts when he said 'signing JT to the AAV we did', and he probably released the first teaser of his new book to simply let the public know who happened to be the highest paid player on the Leafs in 2018. It's a must read.

If, almost inconceivably, there's a crack in this rock solid foundation, then it doesn't matter that he didn't know the difference between RFA and UFA anyways, as he actually got the notorious contracts right accidentally on purpose.

I'm all caught up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So we don't if he was talking about contracts when he said 'signing JT to the AAV we did', and he probably released the first teaser of his new book to simply let the public know who happened to be the highest paid player on the Leafs in 2018. It's a must read. If, almost inconceivably, there's a crack in this rock solid foundation, then it doesn't matter that he didn't know the difference between RFA and UFA anyways, as he actually got the notorious contracts right accidentally on purpose.

That's certainly a unique interpretation of what I actually said. For the record, 'AAV' was a word inserted into that quote afterward (lots of that going around), and while he was likely referencing the internal contract ceiling, he doesn't say any of the things being claimed in this thread. Some people seem really confused about what 'lifting a ceiling' actually means.

It's also not Dubas' book, FYI, and the teaser did feature some interesting information. Unfortunately, focus has been on one vague throwaway comment, instead of that interesting information. There are certainly people struggling with the difference between post-ELC and UFA contracts, but it's not Dubas, and the contracts being consistent with post-ELC history was no accident. He fought pretty hard to ensure it.

 

[IPS]

No, but assuming he was indeed talking about contracts, lifting the ceiling on the existing internal contracts doesn't actually mean anything.

Yeah literally everyone on earth knows what it means except you. Let us know when you finally get caught up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yeah literally everyone on earth knows what it means

I thought they would, but apparently they don't. Some seem to think that when you lift a ceiling, everything in the room just suddenly gets bigger.

 

[Racer88]

By far da biggest mistake was hiring a rook GM and then giving 4 guys half of CAP .. to me it is 1A and 1B .. but those are both on Shanny so he must go

The third mistake was once they realized this core couldn’t get it done and the cap structure made it impossible to build a quality supporting cast they refused to make meaningful changes…….the became paralyzed with fear.

 

[Bomber0104]

I find it pretty unbelievable that someone running a hockey team actually put that in writing. He’s “learned” entirely the wrong lesson.

If the argument were maybe we shouldn’t have signed JT because it strangled our cap space with 3 big RFAs signings coming imminently after, then sure, but arguing it ballooned the contracts of the other 3 is nonsense and always has been.

Matthews deal was always going to be higher than Tavares. Always. Because JT was not his comparable. His comp was between McDavid and Eichel.

Nylander got paid in relative alignment with his peers and ended up being a huge bargain.

The big mistake was letting marner walk him in negotiations by trying to make the argument he’s on Matthews’s level. He isnt.

Matthews gets paid exactly as he did and marner still compares himself to Matthews regardless of whether JT is here or not.

So Kyle Dubas is now an unreliable narrator of events that took place while he was GM in Toronto?

Interesting position.

"No no Kyle that isn't what happened to you as GM of the team, THIS is what really happened: " - anonymous poster on a hockey forum

Believe me, Dubas is definitely as dumb a GM as there's ever been but I think we can probably take his words at their own value seeing as how he'd have the best vantage point of anyone as GM of the team.

And that's not to denigrate your role as an HFBoards poster with 11,000 posts but I think one person's opinion has to count for a lot more here.

 

[Sypher04]

So Kyle Dubas is now an unreliable narrator of events that took place while he was GM in Toronto?

Interesting position.

"No no Kyle that isn't what happened to you as GM of the team, THIS is what really happened: " - anonymous poster on a hockey forum

Believe me, Dubas is definitely as dumb a GM as there's ever been but I think we can probably take his words at their own value seeing as how he'd have the best vantage point of anyone as GM of the team.

And that's not to denigrate your role as an HFBoards poster with 11,000 posts but I think one person's opinion has to count for a lot more here.

Okay but I stand by what I said here.
Which contract changes if JT isn’t signed?

Does Nylander not still get between Pastrnak and Ehlers?

Does Matthews not still get between McDavid and Eichel?

Does Marner not still compare himself to Matthews?

I see no difference.
I can only assume the full excerpt will eventually state something more along the lines of signing JT in conjunction with doing these deals strangled our cap, but not so much that the JT deal itself caused the deals to 34, 88 and 16 to be larger because there certainly doesn’t appear to be any legitimate basis to conclude that.

 

[Stephen]

Okay but I stand by what I said here.
Which contract changes if JT isn’t signed?

Does Nylander not still get a deal between Ehlers and Pastrnak?

Does Matthews not still get between McDavid and Eichel?

Does Marner not still compare himself to Matthews?

I see no difference.
I can only assume the full excerpt will eventually state something more along the lines of signing JT in conjunction with doing these deals strangled our cap, but not so much that the JT deal itself caused the deals to 34, 88 and 16 to be larger because there certainly doesn’t appear to be any rationale to conclude that.

Marner scored 90 plus points with JT in 2018-19. So if he was signed the summer before when he was a 60-70 point guy his number would have been better than Nylander but well under Eichel. How about the Draisaitl deal?

Then sign Matthews last. Without the JT deal $11 would have looked record setting.

That’s a $3 millionish delta on 2 guys alone and up to $14 million without JT.

 

[Sypher04]

Marner scored 90 plus points with JT in 2018-19. So if he was signed the summer before when he was a 60-70 point guy his number would have been better than Nylander but well under Eichel.

Then sign Matthews last. Without the JT deal $11 would have looked record setting.

That’s a $3-4 million delta on 2 guys alone and up to $15 million without JT.

Marner by some reports didn’t want to sign until the end of his ELC so no way we can assume that was possible, but if it was it was surely a mistake to not do it.

You are right that signing Matthews last would have been advantageous (then marner can’t compare to his contract) and could have made an actual difference but that really doesn’t have anything to do with JT.

Willing to bet Matthews’ AAV wouldn’t have changed one iota JT or no JT.

Signing cap percentages:
15.72 McDavid
14.27 Matthews (1.45 under McDavid, 1.69 over Eichel)
12.58 Eichel

 

[ACC1224]

Okay but I stand by what I said here.
Which contract changes if JT isn’t signed?

Does Nylander not still get between Pastrnak and Ehlers?

Does Matthews not still get between McDavid and Eichel?

Does Marner not still compare himself to Matthews?

I see no difference.
I can only assume the full excerpt will eventually state something more along the lines of signing JT in conjunction with doing these deals strangled our cap, but not so much that the JT deal itself caused the deals to 34, 88 and 16 to be larger because there certainly doesn’t appear to be any legitimate basis to conclude that.

The biggest mistake was signing Matthews before Marner.

 

[IPS]

Signing cap percentages:
15.72 McDavid
14.27 Matthews (1.45 under McDavid, 1.69 over Eichel)
12.58 Eichel

Cool so now we're back to ignoring term. Him ending up closer to McDavid than Eichel on a 5 year term would actually suggest he tried using McDavid as a comparable, Eichel was clearly not part of that conversation. Scale the deal up to 8 years and it's pretty obvious what went on. Dubas went ahead and gave him more ammo with this by signing a C who Matthews was blatantly superior to on an $11M x 7 deal, giving him a nice little floor for his deal.

But I really liked you trying to correct Dubas himself on what he actually thought / said, good entertainment.

 

[IPS]

Marner by some reports didn’t want to sign until the end of his ELC so no way we can assume that was possible, but if it was it was surely a mistake to not do it.

So what the hell exactly was it?

I've read several times on here that $8.5M AAV was on the table for Marner after his 2nd season (even though he didn't come anywhere close to earning that) but I've also read he was never going to sign before the end of his ELC cause he wanted to "bet on himself".

My opinion is his camp kept a very close eye on the Tavares rumors/signing because they knew that'd jack up the price of their post ELC contract immensely.. Soon as Tavares hit town there wasn't a chance in hell Marner was taking any $8.5M AAV deals.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You are right that signing Matthews last would have been advantageous (then marner can’t compare to his contract) and could have made an actual difference but that really doesn’t have anything to do with JT.

Willing to bet Matthews’ AAV wouldn’t have changed one iota JT or no JT.

Signing cap percentages:
15.72 McDavid
14.27 Matthews (1.45 under McDavid, 1.69 over Eichel)
12.58 Eichel

Their signing cap hit percentages were actually
McDavid: Negotiated to 17.67%, publicly discounted by McDavid to 16.67%.
Matthews: 14.64%
Eichel: 13.33%

Signing Marner before Matthews, if it was even realistically possible, just means Marner focuses more on all of the other post-ELC contracts that justify his ask.
It wouldn't actually change anything.

 

[therealkoho]

The second Matthews contract, which was a huge error on Dubas.

After seasons of 40, 34, 37 goals and a high of 73 points, but a real drop off in the playoffs. They handed him a contract that was more in line of guy who put up 3 seasons of 100+ points, a couple of top 5 MVP season finishes, and at least one playoff year of some Conn Smythe talk while the Leafs fought their way to a conference final.

11 and a half was incompetent, and not even for an 8 year deal but for 5? The contract he should've been signing at 5 years was maybe 9 or so and that would have been quite generous.

It would've also been a good benchmark for Marners contract which was coming up. Marner probably could have then been signed for 8 or so. Matthews however getting what he was given set the table for Marners demand.

 

[Niagara Bill]

Biggest mistake of the Leafs...trading Lanny McDonald

 

[Team First]

Biggest mistake of the Leafs...trading Lanny McDonald

Ties into what I said earlier. Making Sittler remove the "C" and then this drama. Younger people on this board may not remember these ongoing bits of leaf drama...

 

[therealkoho]

Ties into what I said earlier. Making Sittler remove the "C" and then this drama. Younger people on this board may not remember these ongoing bits of leaf drama...

They did it to Davey as well, just freaking shameful. Now some myopic fans want to do it to Tavares, I swear to dog some of this fanbase is mindless!

 

[freshwind]

Biggest mistake of the Leafs...trading Lanny McDonald

and this after the disaster of a trade -- errol thonpson, 2 1sts and a 2nd for snowshoes maloney and craig muni

they just keep doubling down on errors

 

[Captain Crunch]

Every team has missteps, some more than others.
What do you feel was the biggest mistake this team has made? (Limit your response to post lockout/salary cap introduction)

I can think of a bunch but not sure yet which I feel was the 'biggest'.

For me, I think the biggest mistake this team made was when they hired Brendan Shanahan as team President, who never had any prior experience in this role (yes, I know other teams have done the same thing). That decision led to him naming Kyle Dubas as the Leafs' GM in 2018, who then named Sheldon Keefe as the new coach (who had no prior experience as an NHL coach) after firing Babcock (although that turned out to be a good decision).

This was the "perfect storm" that has led the Leafs to where they are now.

 

[Mess]

Marner scored 90 plus points with JT in 2018-19. So if he was signed the summer before when he was a 60-70 point guy his number would have been better than Nylander but well under Eichel. How about the Draisaitl deal?

Then sign Matthews last. Without the JT deal $11 would have looked record setting.

That’s a $3 millionish delta on 2 guys alone and up to $14 million without JT.

$72M was discussion point prior to season for Marner, Maple Leafs​

When it’s time for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to sign on the dotted line, the last thing the Toronto Maple Leafs want to go through is a repeat of the contract conflict they just had with William Nylander.

Both star forwards are in the final year of their entry-level deals and are expected to earn lofty salary cap hits that will kick in at the beginning of next season. Both have been excellent so far this year but Marner specifically has elevated his value thanks to his on-ice performance.

“Many people talking, suggesting maybe the best chance to sign him on a long-term deal, Ron, would have been in the summer,” Nick Kypreos told Ron MacLean Saturday during the Headlines segment of Hockey Night in Canada. “The discussion point was around $72 million prior to the season and my understanding is it was too rich for the Toronto Maple Leafs.”

So the discussion on HNIC was the Marner was seeking a 8 year @ $9 mil AAV = $72 mil total. With the Draisaitl deal of $8.5 mil X 8 years = $68 mil .. BEFORE the Tavares signing.

This is why Dubas is now on record addmitting the signing JT before re-signing Marner and Matthews was his WORST mistake because it esculated interal salaries.

 

[ULF_55]

Biggest mistake of the Leafs...trading Lanny McDonald

I was so disappointed in the Ullman trade.

 

[ULF_55]

Keefe more or less same results year after year.
Change players no change.
Add at deadline no change.

Not ready to start games.
Not playing to the final whistle every period.

 

[notDatsyuk]

They did it to Davey as well, just freaking shameful. Now some myopic fans want to do it to Tavares, I swear to dog some of this fanbase is mindless!

While I disagree in principle with 'stripping' the C from anyone, I don't think we should compare Tavares to Sittler or Keon.