Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[IPS]

I think dumbass is likely.

The 18-year-old reportedly signed a deal involving "Level A" bonuses, which, according to the NHL's Collective Bargaining Agreement, carries a maximum of $850,000 per year, and a maximum of $212,500 per bonus.

This reportedly runs contrary to new general manager Lou Lamoriello's old-school style:

One note on Marner contract: he gets the "A" bonuses. Lou Lamoriello historically does not believe in them (see Adam Larsson), but...
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 28, 2015

because negotiations began before he was hired, I understand he made an exception. Be interesting to see if it continues.

The more I look into it the more I really think this wasn't the case. Lou was far from this unreasonable tyrant that some are making him out to be.

 

[ACC1224]

If you look around the league I think you’ll find a lot of examples of teammates being paid differently and maybe unfairly due to when the contracts were signed, internal cap, other circumstances, preferential treatment. But we don’t really spend all day micro analyzing if Makar makes more than Rantanen, if Marchand should be resentful Pastrnak leapfrogged him, because their agents don’t air all the dirty laundry and play the resentment game in front of the media.

Marner is a fabulously wealthy young man. Airing all these resentments in contract negotiations out in the open just doesn’t generate sympathy.

He wasn't 'wealthy' when the issue was 'aired' and on this particular issue, I doubt you'd find any examples from other teams. I do agree, other fan bases wouldn't go on about something so far in the past but we do like to dwell on anything perceived negative here, no matter how long ago it occurred.

 

[Stephen]

Good question. He signed it in the middle of the summer, so maybe there was a little bit of negotiation, but clearly no sign of any conflict back then. So why have that and then all of a sudden turn the negotiations into a toxic mess on the second go-around?

It all boils down to using historical grievances to generate future compensation.

 

[LeafGrief]

Agree wholeheartedly. If Marner wants to stay in Toronto and make it work long term I don’t think he needs all the prickly representation around him.

This is the kind of soft-handling that's poisonous.

A player is responsible for their own agent. The key word is that the agent is a representative of the player. Whether Marner needs it or not, his representatives speak for him with his explicit consent through their continued employment.

Marner is responsible for his own life, his own career, his own play, his own relationship with the fans. He's 27 years old for goodness' sake, he's not some kid who's wincing in the corner while his jerk of an agent antagonizes the fans.

I know that I'm not really talking about you here, moreso other posters or the fanbase in general, but a big part of his problem is that people are always, always, always trying to let him off the hook for his responsibility. It's not that Marner stinks in the playoffs, it's the coach using him wrong, or he's hurt, or he's actually trying really hard guys, he swears and ROR said so. It's not that Marner stuck the screws to Dubas and then tried to win the fans back with a video, it's a mean agent and mean ol' Godfather Lou who made him do it. Keefe was being unreasonable when he called out the team, that's why he apologized, not because Marner (and possibly the others) demanded that he do so.

If Marner wants to make it work here long term, he doesn't need to kick the prickly representatives to the curb, or kiss the new coach's ring, or any of that. He needs to look the camera in the eyes and tell Leafs fans that he's let them down, that he understands our frustration with him, and that he is committing to be better in the future. Then go out and do it. It's the complete lack of responsibility with him that really drives me up the wall, it's always some reason, someone else's fault, some completely legitimate problem that overcame him and stopped him. That made sense the first five years, it doesn't make sense any more. As much as Matthews also needs to step up, be more consistent, care less about money and image and more about hockey, he's not the guy who's making excuses for himself. If Marner actually starts to own what has happened so far and what will happen in the future, the fans will come around. The talent is there, but the fans will only follow the honest player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think it was your boy who mixed up post-ELC with UFA, giving UFA amounts in RFA contracts.

If you're talking about Dubas, he gave post-ELC amounts to players signing post-ELC contracts, and UFA amounts to players signing UFA contracts. I'm not sure where you got the idea that buying more prime UFA years on a post-ELC contract should lower the AAV, but that's obviously completely backwards. A 10.9m x 6 year post-ELC contract would be universally preferred over a 10.55m x 5 year post-ELC contract, and even more-so in this specific situation considering the timing of the Leaf's other contract expiries.

I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you made a simple mistake mixing up contract types, since UFA contracts do often decrease in AAV with increased term when you're adding on less valuable decline years, but you've just doubled down and continue to misrepresent me instead of addressing the topic. If you'd like to attempt justifying why a contract would decrease in AAV when you add on years that are worth more than the average of the other years, I'd love to hear it. I suspect that won't come, so I'll just make a note of your... unique position, for any future discussions.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you look around the league I think you’ll find a lot of examples of teammates being paid differently and maybe unfairly due to when the contracts were signed, internal cap, other circumstances, preferential treatment. But we don’t really spend all day micro analyzing if Makar makes more than Rantanen, if Marchand should be resentful Pastrnak leapfrogged him, because their agents don’t air all the dirty laundry and play the resentment game in front of the media.

The media, focus, and prolonged microanalyzing in Toronto is definitely more toxic, but this is also a completely different situation than what you're describing. While everybody ends up with different value contracts because of their unique situations, timing, and trajectory of development, they were all treated the same way, and negotiated with by the same established standards. That's very different from one person being treated differently than everybody else like him in the league and the established standards at the time because the new guy claims to have some weird, unwavering power trip principle, only for it to then be immediately abandoned for the next prospect like him to come along a year later.

 

[Notsince67]

It all boils down to using historical grievances to generate future compensation.

or an organization expecting water under the bridge when a failure to move on an organizationally insignificant action now should be ignored for a "Team" discount...all in the name of player good faith.
Leafs really should choose which hill to die on in a more efficable way.

 

[IPS]

or an organization expecting water under the bridge when a failure to move on an organizationally insignificant action now should be ignored for a "Team" discount...all in the name of player good faith.
Leafs really should choose which hill to die on in a more efficable way.

Was it really viewed that way?

The ELC / Schedule A bonuses was signed on July 28th, middle of the summer, dead, no news. It really didn't seem like much of anything went on. Why was it that when the second contract came rolling around this became a point of bitterness that was brought up among other things?

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

The more I look into it the more I really think this wasn't the case. Lou was far from this unreasonable tyrant that some are making him out to be.

Some would say not letting his players grow long hair or beards is a bit unreasonable and tyranical.

 

[Notsince67]

Was it really viewed that way?

The ELC / Schedule A bonuses was signed on July 28th, middle of the summer, dead, no news. It really didn't seem like much of anything went on. Why was it that when the second contract came rolling around this became a point of bitterness that was brought up among other things?

I dont think it was bitterness. It was business. Good faith goes both ways. If you enter into a good faith negotiation, you typically need to account for previous strong arm tactics.

 

[Stephen]

or an organization expecting water under the bridge when a failure to move on an organizationally insignificant action now should be ignored for a "Team" discount...all in the name of player good faith.
Leafs really should choose which hill to die on in a more efficable way.

All this rehashing of minor grievances from early in the relationship tells me the team and player should just get a divorce.

 

[Notsince67]

All this rehashing of minor grievances from early in the relationship tells me the team and player should just get a divorce.

Not unlike the rehashing of a contract signed over 5 years ago by a player. That tells me the fan and the team should get a divorce.

 

[Stephen]

Not unlike the rehashing of a contract signed over 5 years ago by a player. That tells me the fan and the team should get a divorce.

If any group of players is going to turn a fanbase off their team it’s probably this one.

 

[IPS]

Not unlike the rehashing of a contract signed over 5 years ago by a player. That tells me the fan and the team should get a divorce.

Hold on a sec now, Lou / the ELC contract / bonuses got brought into the argument cause of nonsense posts like this:

Every top 4 pick since 2015 has received B bonuses except Marner, who was better than most of them. Marner's justified gripe was that he was treated differently than everybody, and the established standard at the time. Lou lying to him and then giving it to Matthews is just an extra kick in the teeth.

The core is good again?

Can we stay consistent about whether he inherited good players or chokers at least?

I think Marner feeling like he was screwed out fo money by Lou is documented, not an excuse for him being overpaid, but I don't think it is a secret.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Hold on a sec now, Lou / the ELC contract / bonuses got brought into the argument cause of nonsense posts like this:

Weird how you missed all of the prior posts discussing it, like the post I was replying to, and your post.

 

[notbias]

If any group of players is going to turn a fanbase off their team it’s probably this one.

I think it'd be welcomed. The fans that are leaving wouldn't be missed, it is people who can't enjoy the game for what it is, entertainment.

 

[IPS]

Weird how you missed all of the prior posts discussing it, like the post I was replying to, and your post.

Sure go back and read. It's blatantly you and the other cheerleader who brought Lou into it.

Your language is pretty hilarious too, Lou "stole" from Marner and "lied" to him. Just melodramatic nonsense all over the place.

 

[notbias]

Sure go back and read. It's blatantly you and the other cheerleader who brought Lou into it.

Your language is pretty hilarious too, Lou "stole" from Marner and "lied" to him. Just melodramatic nonsense all over the place.

Just FYI, this is a thread of the biggest mistakes in the last ~20 years... Lou was GM within that timeframe and made mistakes, no need to whine about it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sure go back and read. It's blatantly you and the other cheerleader who brought Lou into it.

In a discussion about the team's biggest mistakes in the cap era, Lou being discussed is inevitable.
My post simply provided the previously discussed "frame of reference" that Stephen was missing.

 

[Stephen]

In a discussion about the team's biggest mistakes in the cap era, Lou being discussed is inevitable.
My post simply provided the previously discussed "frame of reference" that Stephen was missing.

In a conversation where Dubas acknowledged his error in handling the Big 3 and Tavares, you had to bring up Uncle Lou on the handling of an obscure Schedule B bonus totalling $2 million, and bring up Marleau on his last year at $6 million or so.

Versus the dollar amount directly handed out by Dubas totalling $240 million plus in $77 million in Tavares money. $65 million in Marner money. $59 million in Matthews money and $42 million in Nylander money.

Which do you think shaped this era more? Maybe when your guy has already copped to his error you just accept it for what it is and move on.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If you're talking about Dubas, he gave post-ELC amounts to players signing post-ELC contracts, and UFA amounts to players signing UFA contracts. I'm not sure where you got the idea that buying more prime UFA years on a post-ELC contract should lower the AAV, but that's obviously completely backwards. A 10.9m x 6 year post-ELC contract would be universally preferred over a 10.55m x 5 year post-ELC contract, and even more-so in this specific situation considering the timing of the Leaf's other contract expiries.

I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you made a simple mistake mixing up contract types, since UFA contracts do often decrease in AAV with increased term when you're adding on less valuable decline years, but you've just doubled down and continue to misrepresent me instead of addressing the topic. If you'd like to attempt justifying why a contract would decrease in AAV when you add on years that are worth more than the average of the other years, I'd love to hear it. I suspect that won't come, so I'll just make a note of your... unique position, for any future discussions.

The way you constantly mix them up for your own purposes would confuse most people trying to make sense of your posts, but I've given up trying.

I content myself with pointing out your mistakes, and laughing at your non-stop spinning.

As far as addressing the topic, I have several times, but you keep shifting it every time I show you to be wrong, so I'll stop trying to pin you down. That's what you want anyway.

Some people may be confused or impressed by your weird manipulations of facts, but not me. Sorry.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

If the offer was less than $10.9 and Marner didn't sign it because he wanted to stay here, Dubas made a mistake by paying that much.

If the offer was $10.9 or more, Dubas made a mistake by not telling Marner to sign it, and take the four 1sts.

If I remember correctly, the CBJ was $11m but over 7yrs and MM gave us a deal by taking a touch less and 6yrs for doing so...He wanted 11x5yrs and CBJ wouldn't go there.

 

[notbias]

If I remember correctly, the CBJ was $11m but over 7yrs and MM gave us a deal by taking a touch less and 6yrs for doing so...He wanted 11x5yrs and CBJ wouldn't go there.

So we'd get 4x 1st from them, that turned into:

PLD
Kristian Vesalainen
Liam Foudy
Lassi Thomson

Obviously, the Leafs would select different people, and the picks would likely be lower because Columbus would be better... but wow, that is bad.

Oops, did this wrong, will edit with the correct years, I did the first 4 drafts after Marner's... but this is still interesting, a nice glimpse into how bad it could be.

Yegor Chinakhov
Kent Johnson
David Jiricek
Adam Fantalli

I'd probably take this over Marner, but even then Fantalli is the only reason (Jiricek is nice too), and even then, I'd have to think about it, and like I mentioned the draft picks would likely be lower as Columbus would be better.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In a conversation where Dubas acknowledged his error in handling the Big 3 and Tavares, you had to bring up Uncle Lou on the handling of an obscure Schedule B bonus totalling $2 million, and bring up Marleau on his last year at $6 million or so. Versus the dollar amount directly handed out by Dubas totalling $240 million plus in $77 million in Tavares money. $65 million in Marner money. $59 million in Matthews money and $42 million in Nylander money. Which do you think shaped this era more? Maybe when your guy has already copped to his error you just accept it for what it is and move on.

There were 42 posts about Marleau in this thread before I made my single post referencing him. My one post was in fact a response to you reigniting that discussion and trying to shift blame towards the person who dealt with the anchor instead of the person who created the anchor. The person who created the anchor was Lou, who there were also 28 posts about before I mentioned him at all. This bonus discussion (another product of Lou) is a result of you having a go at Marner before you had bothered to get the "frame of reference" that showed his feelings to be fully justified. It shouldn't be a surprise that massive mistakes and the GM who committed them are being discussed.

I've accepted that Dubas acknowledged that he shouldn't have listened to Lou, and wishes he had put more immediate focus on the core 3 contracts. That's a normal reaction to how things played out. But we don't even know if that would have changed anything, and I haven't seen you accept that it didn't mean any of the things that you tried to extrapolate.

I'm not sure what you think "dollar amount directly handed out" has to do with anything. This conversation is about the team's biggest mistakes in the cap era, and that's one area where Lou has Dubas beat.

 

[squashmaple]

So we'd get 4x 1st from them, that turned into:

PLD
Kristian Vesalainen
Liam Foudy
Lassi Thomson

Obviously, the Leafs would select different people, and the picks would likely be lower because Columbus would be better... but wow, that is bad.

Oops, did this wrong, will edit with the correct years, I did the first 4 drafts after Marner's... but this is still interesting, a nice glimpse into how bad it could be.

Yegor Chinakhov
Kent Johnson
David Jiricek
Adam Fantalli

I'd probably take this over Marner, but even then Fantalli is the only reason (Jiricek is nice too), and even then, I'd have to think about it, and like I mentioned the draft picks would likely be lower as Columbus would be better.

Jiricek was picked with a pick from Chicago in the Seth Jones trade. You don’t get the better of a team’s collection of picks for an offer sheet, you get their own pick. Columbus finished 12OA that year, so you’re looking at Denton Mateychuk.