Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[socko]

Offer Sheets:

Nylander: If he was offered one, he never took it. He was hours away from spending the entire season in Sweden. Before Dubas caved like the simp he is.

Marner: Go ahead sign an offer sheet. Make my day.

Matthews: Could easily get an offer sheet. But he did not.

Conclusion: Biggest nothing burger non-threat ever.

 

[ponder]

I'd say promoting Dubas to GM. While he did learn the ropes over time, eventually became a solid GM, he inherited an absolutely unbelievable situation (incredible young talent and tonnes of cap flexibility), and made a series of brutal mistakes in his first 12 months as GM that simply destroyed our ability to truly contend.

The really key mistakes:

• Signed Tavares to a 7x$11 mil deal, to be our 2C. When we already had a quality 2C in Kadri, who was locked down for a number more years at $4.5 mil
  • Didn't remotely fit team needs
  • Dubas misread his game. Slow skating and weak defensive play means he's just a very mediocre even strength player, despite elite puck skill
  • Ruined our "internal cap structure" - JT is simply not that good, Matthews and Marner could clearly see they were better, demanded JT+ $$. The teams with great cap management get star(s) signed to discounts, and then everyone else falls in line salary wise relative to that
• Had all the leverage in the Matthews deal, Matthews was an RFA, Dubas could afford to be patient. But with TONNES of time left to negotiate, utterly caved on both AAV and term - $11.64 AAV made him the 2nd highest paid centre in the entire league (behind only McDavid), and 5 years bought only a single UFA season. Insanely terrible negotiating
• Same thing with the Marner deal, 6x$10.9. Bought just 2 UFA seasons, and made him the 2nd highest paid winger in the league (behind only Panarin). Again signed this with tonnes of negotiating time left

The Leafs had this incredible young core, that was crazy stacked with young forwards - Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Moore, Kapanen, Johnsson, Engvall, etc. The clear focus had to be:

• Negotiating hard with the many RFAs
• Improve the clearly weak defence, and somewhat weak goaltending (with Andersen starting to struggle shortly after Dubas took over)
• Switching out some of those more "skill forwards" for some grit - had great talent at forward, but not the best grit/skill mix

Instead he just f***ed our cap with the Tavares, Matthews and Marner contracts, and that actually lead to our 4 grittiest forwards becoming cap casualties. Hyman and Brown very direct cap casualties, and Kadri and Moore more indirect, traded for dmen in attempts to improve the D on a shoestring budget, where no dman could make much $$.

 

[francis246]

Of course they are interested in the game. It was historical to have an amateur step in and beat an NHL team. It was embarrassing for the team but not as bad as the night Tavares returned to Long Island. That game really showed their character.

Carolina played nearly perfect defense. Shots weren’t getting through. That game is so overblown. It’s a meaningless game in the regular season tbh.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So why not just lock in lower and earlier?

Likely because they didn't want to sign earlier for cheap after the way that they had been treated and unnaturally suppressed, and caving to their demands to do so would have set a bad precedent for the Nylander negootiation, and been the exact type of GM action that people here say they would hate.

Finally, to kick a dead horse once more, Dubas finally “learned his lesson” and ended up locking in Kapanen and Johnsson at wildly inflated prices at a combined cap hit of almost $7 million in 2019. Presumably to avoid another round of RFA calamities. This ended up bringing the Marleau contract to a head which then forced Toronto to get rid of the Jarvis pick and lose Brown to dump Zaitsev. Johnsson and Kapanen were so mediocre he dumped them a year after clearing the deck of the Marleau deal.

Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Kapanen and Johnsson were given "wildly inflated prices", but what is wild is blaming the consequences of anchors that hurt the team on the person who dealt with them to improve the team, instead of the person who created them. Kapanen and Johnsson were moved the next year because a pandemic hit and stagnated the cap, and it was the easiest way to recoup futures and reallocate some cap from forward depth to defense.

 

[socko]

We're not going to blame Brad for those horrific Marner and Tavares contracts any more than we're going to blame him for giving all the team's draft picks away. That was clearly all Dubas.

 

[Notsince67]

None of those sources provided evidence, particularly in the form of a signed offer sheet. None were either the Leafs management or another team's management.

I'm not saying they didn't happen (or almost happen or maybe almost happen) - just that we have no evidence beyond "he said".

I'm well aware that all kinds of rumors and speculation are taken for gospel here, and everywhere else on the internet. All I can do is try to point out a few if the worst instances.

It was stated that Dubas had first hand knowledge of one of them...a fact he never disputed. Kind of weird that he didn't, if untrue. I don't understand why people feel so threatened by the likelihood it is all real.

 

[Stephen]

Likely because they didn't want to sign earlier for cheap after the way that they had been treated and unnaturally suppressed, and caving to their demands to do so would have set a bad precedent for the Nylander negootiation, and been the exact type of GM action that people here say they would hate.

Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Kapanen and Johnsson were given "wildly inflated prices", but what is wild is blaming the consequences of anchors that hurt the team on the person who dealt with them to improve the team, instead of the person who created them. Kapanen and Johnsson were moved the next year because a pandemic hit and stagnated the cap, and it was the easiest way to recoup futures and reallocate some cap from forward depth to defense.

In your estimation, how did a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, one which had the best core individual for individual coming out of the 2010s, a brilliant young GM with the best ideas who made no mistakes, a reasonable cap allocation somehow manage to win fewer playoff rounds than our Atlantic rivals in Tampa have Stanley Cups?

 

[Racer88]

That's obviously an unrealistic expectation.

Why? If it was a great offer Marner would have signed it so it must have been insufficient

In your estimation, how did a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, one which had the best core individual for individual coming out of the 2010s, a brilliant young GM with the best ideas who made no mistakes, a reasonable cap allocation somehow manage to win fewer playoff rounds than our Atlantic rivals in Tampa have Stanley Cups?

It’s all bad luck of course

 

[IPS]

It was stated that Dubas had first hand knowledge of one of them...a fact he never disputed. Kind of weird that he didn't, if untrue. I don't understand why people feel so threatened by the likelihood it is all real.

Say they were real, what was the real number?

Aho got $8.5 x 5 on an offersheet. What realistically was Marner looking at on an offersheet?

As someone mentioned earlier, a complete nothing burger non-threat.

 

[francis246]

In your estimation, how did a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, one which had the best core individual for individual coming out of the 2010s, a brilliant young GM with the best ideas who made no mistakes, a reasonable cap allocation somehow manage to win fewer playoff rounds than our Atlantic rivals in Tampa have Stanley Cups?

Well if we are being 100% honest. Lou really f***ed us on the post ELC contracts. Signing Marleau meant we couldn’t give our guys except Matthews their full bonuses. That was really the beginning of the bad relationship when it came contract negotiations.

In hindsight, they should have just given these guys the bonuses. It would have 100% saved us money on the post ELC contracts. Even Auston refused to sign his ELC until August until Lou agreed to give both schedule A and Schedule B bonuses to him. If we want to talk about really what kick started the money issue it was that situation right there.

The way management tried to handle their contracts from the very beginning has been idiotic. From Lou to Dubas.

 

[Nineteen67]

Carolina played nearly perfect defense. Shots weren’t getting through. That game is so overblown. It’s a meaningless game in the regular season tbh.

In the grand scheme it’s just another embarrassing performance where the core fell flat. Everyone is still waiting for them to overcome adversity and do something positive, and not fall short, just once.
At this point I think fans would be happy if they actually achieved an individual milestone, like 70 goals or 100 points, despite getting injured the last game of the season. One tiny victory.

 

[notbias]

All this offer sheet talk just reinforces the fact that Dubas failed to protect his asset ahead of time by not taking care of the RFA contracts as early as possible, as he recently admitted. Which invalidates his 2018 maxim of “if you have time, use it” as he supposedly learned sitting at Lou’s feet because by September 2019 he was negotiating like there was a gun held to his head.

Just to put a bow on how utterly poorly the contracts were negotiated and the complete lack of intellectual framework, Dubas both completely misunderstood the inflationary nature of contracts by delaying negotiations on Matthews and Marner.

Did he expect their production to go down over time, or their asks to go down over time by delaying? Then once he overpaid, he post rationalized that everything would amortize over time with an endlessly rising cap. So why not just lock in lower and earlier? Makes. No. Sense.

I agree with some of this, should have locked them up earlier, but there are plenty of scenarios where players don't live up to a contract when signed too early.

An example is the entire Ottawa roster.

Finally, to kick a dead horse once more, Dubas finally “learned his lesson” and ended up locking in Kapanen and Johnsson at wildly inflated prices at a combined cap hit of almost $7 million in 2019. Presumably to avoid another round of RFA calamities. This ended up bringing the Marleau contract to a head which then forced Toronto to get rid of the Jarvis pick and lose Brown to dump Zaitsev. Johnsson and Kapanen were so mediocre he dumped them a year after clearing the deck of the Marleau deal.

It's weird to bring up these bad contracts that got assets when traded...

He essentially used them as rentals and then traded them for some good value, not sure how you can see this as a bad move.

You can see clear as day what the original sin did to this era of the Leafs build. One mistake compounding on another, paying out more money here and there on every transaction. Just utter JFJ level incompetence.

The mistake was not betting on the players, but that doesn't always work out.

Offer Sheets:

Nylander: If he was offered one, he never took it. He was hours away from spending the entire season in Sweden. Before Dubas caved like the simp he is.

Nylander caved, I'd look into this whole saga, you seem uneducated on it.

Marner: Go ahead sign an offer sheet. Make my day.

I'd want the 4x 1sts, but likely nothing else.

Matthews: Could easily get an offer sheet. But he did not.

Was signed before he could get one.

 

[egd27]

Marner - who had also been suppressed and abused by his coach and been lied to and had money stolen from him by his previous GM

Stolen? Tell us more about this theft.

 

[francis246]

In the grand scheme it’s just another embarrassing performance where the core fell flat. Everyone is still waiting for them to overcome adversity and do something positive, and not fall short, just once.
At this point I think fans would be happy if they actually achieved an individual milestone, like 70 goals or 100 points, despite getting injured the last game of the season. One tiny victory.

Meh I don’t really look at it as embarrassing. I honestly don’t even think of anything other than a normal game. Not sure why anyone even cares lol. It has zero affect on our lives or even the leafs season. Time to let that game go.

 

[Notsince67]

Say they were real, what was the real number?

Aho got $8.5 x 5 on an offersheet. What realistically was Marner looking at on an offersheet?

As someone mentioned earlier, a complete nothing burger non-threat.

Number was likely pretty good. Panarin had just left columbus for big money. No amount of money would have kept him there. They wanted an elite player. Not a stretch to believe they would have given marner a lot.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

In your estimation, how did a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, one which had the best core individual for individual coming out of the 2010s, a brilliant young GM with the best ideas who made no mistakes, a reasonable cap allocation somehow manage to win fewer playoff rounds than our Atlantic rivals in Tampa have Stanley Cups?

Clearly it was an undeniable combination of Babcock, Lou, Hunter, COVID and oh yeah offersheets. But what percentage!!!

One thing is clear Dubas <1%, everything else including the fans, 99%

 

[Nineteen67]

Meh I don’t really look at it as embarrassing. I honestly don’t even think of anything other than a normal game. Not sure why anyone even cares lol. It has zero affect on our lives or even the leafs season. Time to let that game go.

You can rate the failures how you wish. Although it’s only one chapter in their book of failures, it happened, and can’t be undone.

 

[Nineteen67]

Clearly it was an undeniable combination of Babcock, Lou, Hunter, COVID and oh yeah offersheets. But what percentage!!!

One thing is clear Dubas <1%, everything else including the fans, 99%

I think a couple of teams gave some numbers but Marner had no desire to play for those teams and would never sign, and yet, the Leafs ended up getting screwed n the long run.

 

[francis246]

Stolen? Tell us more about this theft.

Stolen isn’t the word I would use, but Marner lost out on a potential 2 million and it was reported that was a part of the reason he went so hard in the post ELC contracts. In hindsight it was really dumb to not just give him the potential of earning that 2 million then. It would have saved us in the future and it would have eliminated that comparison of Matthews got it, why didn’t I get it.

You can rate the failures how you wish. Although it’s only one chapter in their book of failures, it happened, and can’t be undone.

Again I, like many others don’t look at it as a failure because the game meant nothing. I would feel the same if they won. Good for them they won a regular season game.

Toronto isn’t the first, isn’t the last and will never be the last to lose to an EBUG, so who cares lol.

 

[notDatsyuk]

It was stated that Dubas had first hand knowledge of one of them...a fact he never disputed. Kind of weird that he didn't, if untrue. I don't understand why people feel so threatened by the likelihood it is all real.

Did Dubas actually say that? I haven't heard that mentioned before, which would be a bit surprising from the few posters who defend his every move.

And again, I'm not saying it didn't happen (and I'm certainly not 'threatened' by it), just that "Bill said Joe talked to Frank" isn't much proof.

 

[Stephen]

Well if we are being 100% honest. Lou really f***ed us on the post ELC contracts. Signing Marleau meant we couldn’t give our guys except Matthews their full bonuses. That was really the beginning of the bad relationship when it came contract negotiations.

In hindsight, they should have just given these guys the bonuses. It would have 100% saved us money on the post ELC contracts. Even Auston refused to sign his ELC until August until Lou agreed to give both schedule A and Schedule B bonuses to him. If we want to talk about really what kick started the money issue it was that situation right there.

The way management tried to handle their contracts from the very beginning has been idiotic. From Lou to Dubas.

Blaming Lou is probably the least honest approach to apportioning blame to why this era hasn’t really panned out. It’s like receiving an inheritance of $20 million and bemoaning the fact that it wasn’t a $25 million inheritance and boo hoo nothing worked out because of Lou.

Regarding Marleau, it looks like there were probably alternative solutions where you could have just kept the fossil and played out the last year instead of throwing out a first rounder to make him disappear. Maybe you don’t keep both Kapanen and Johnsson at the time. Maybe the Kadri deal didn’t happen the same way requiring $3.5 million to be spent on Alex Kerfoot. So many things could have been different that the butterfly effect of that is unknown.

 

[notbias]

Blaming Lou is probably the least honest approach to apportioning blame to why this era hasn’t really panned out. It’s like receiving an inheritance of $20 million and bemoaning the fact that it wasn’t a $25 million inheritance and boo hoo nothing worked out because of Lou.

The core is good again?

Can we stay consistent about whether he inherited good players or chokers at least?

I think Marner feeling like he was screwed out fo money by Lou is documented, not an excuse for him being overpaid, but I don't think it is a secret.

 

[Sypher04]

The core is good again?

Can we stay consistent about whether he inherited good players or chokers at least?

I think Marner feeling like he was screwed out fo money by Lou is documented, not an excuse for him being overpaid, but I don't think it is a secret.

That admittedly was a real weird hill to die on for Lou. It really wouldn’t have harmed the team one iota to just give Mitch the bonuses.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In your estimation, how did a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, one which had the best core individual for individual coming out of the 2010s, a brilliant young GM with the best ideas who made no mistakes, a reasonable cap allocation somehow manage to win fewer playoff rounds than our Atlantic rivals in Tampa have Stanley Cups?

A few great young players and a good GM sandwiched between bad ones doesn't guarantee a last place team cups by the time those players are in their mid-20s. There have been many mistakes made over the past decade+, many different things have impacted our playoff outcomes over the years (some within our control, some not), and we unfortunately didn't draft the best goalie of a generation in 2012 and circumvent the cap like Tampa, but instead of talking about what actually happened and why, you seem more focused on creating incorrect narratives about the past in an attempt to pin everything on one guy who was the least of our problems.

 

[Notsince67]

Did Dubas actually say that? I haven't heard that mentioned before, which would be a bit surprising from the few posters who defend his every move.

And again, I'm not saying it didn't happen (and I'm certainly not 'threatened' by it), just that "Bill said Joe talked to Frank" isn't much proof.

my recollection was a public statement Marner agent made related to Dubas. It strains the imagination that Dubas supported a lie through his silence to maintain good will. Who would do that?