Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[robertmac43]

basically the vast majority of mistakes big and small were from hiring Dubas

What if i told you his boss was in control the whole time?

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't even feel like posting on HF anymore... but really liked what pronger had to say so.....

 

[notDatsyuk]

What are you arguing?

He took a valid path to his first GM role.

Maybe I am just not understanding what your point was...

I said he had no NHL experience when he was signed.

You said he did as an AGM.

I asked the name of the GM.

You did not answer.

I'm not arguing anything, just asking you to verify your claim.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander's current contract will be as hard to live up to as the contracts handed out to the other 3.

Possibly true, but we were talking about the previous ones.

In Marner's first year of his $10.9 contract the cap was $81.5, so his hit was 13.37%.

In Tavares' first year of his $11 contract the cap was $79.5, so his hit was 13.84%.

In Nylander's first year of his $11.5 contract the cap is $87.7, so his hit is 13.11%.

A better player at a lower %. Maybe hard, but not as hard.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I mean... it should have been obvious what was being referred to. You don't understand that?

I've explained what happened.

How about you explain what you mean by "nothing happened"?

 

[sting101]

Outsider here but i really don't see the Tavares signing as the big issue.

Should have fought down the RFA years of Marner and Matthews seems like they took the team to the wood shed. Any quality negotiator wouldn't have let Tavares being swooned in UFA to be used as a comp for 21/22 yr olds.

Covid after that put a noose around the teams neck sorry to say. Must have been tough to try and convince players to take less to play behind the core 4 and do heavy lifting for obvious reasons

Mistake was doubling down by 2020/21. With Covid and a flat cap for the foreseeable future it would have been smart to trade Marner to Detroit or Ottawa for the 4th or 5th pick in the draft. Would have been able to keep Hyman etc and draft Sanderson/Raymond plus cap to keep the team competitive and reset the culture. Keefe was a bad hire also

Might seem like hindsight but i told my buddy who's a huge fan this in 2020 and there were some rumblings about Detroit and Marner with a quick retool around Larkin and others at the time. Ottawa i think would have been all over coming away with Stutzle and Marner. Sanderson would look good with Hyman and whatever else you got for 5-6 million leading up to his raise.

 

[Racer88]

Kyle Dubas’ dirty dozen 12 worst moves during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs
=========================================================================

1). Letting Zach Hyman walk as UFA, suggesting $5 mil AAV was too rich for Leafs. Hyman coming off a 70 goal season (54 regular and Salary Cap record 16 playoff goals).

2). Signing Marner and Matthews to UFA $$ contract rates as RFA (under cost controllable situation), missing the 2nd contract team value deals and missing Leaf Cup compete window.

3). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot and a 2020 3rd-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a 2020 6th-round pick.

4). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Nick Foligno (CBJ) and Stefan Noesen (SJ) in a three-way trade in exchange for a 2021 1st-round pick, a 2021 4th-round pick and a 2022 4th-round pick

5). Toronto Maple Leafs protecting Justin Holl and Alex Kerfoot over 40 goal future scorer Jared McCann in the 2021 Seattle Kraken expansion draft

6.) Toronto Maple Leafs sign free agent John Tavares to a seven-year, $77M contract ($11M AAV) the highest UFA contract in a Salary Cap World blowing up Leafs internal Salary Cap.

7). Toronto Maple Leafs dumping Marleau with a 1st round who turned out to be Seth Jarvis, because of overspending on contracts preventing Leafs own RFA re-signings.

8) Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Matt Murray in trade coming with a long injury history and $15 mil owing on his 2 year contract for a 3rd and 7th round picks.

9). Toronto Maple Leafs sign free agent Petr Mrazek to a three-year, $11.4M contract ($3.8M AAV), then dealing away Leafs 1st round pick in 2022 to unload it.

10). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire 38 year old Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell from the Seattle Kraken in exchange for a 2022 2nd-round pick, a 2023 2nd-round pick, a 2024 3rd-round pick

11). Building a team in a Salary Cap World not from Goalie out, but rather 4 forwards eating up 1/2 a Salary Cap and it leading to NHL worst playoff results of all NHL teams.

12). Leafs GM scorced earth dealing away Leafs draft picks like candy years into the future to fuel his 1st round playoff loss imcompetence. No team has made less picks the past 3 years.

Honourable Mention:

- Allowing Frederik Andersen to walk in free agency to sign a two-year, $9M contract ($4.5M AAV) with the Carolina Hurricanes, leading to the endless poor goaltending decisons (Garret Sparks, Michael Hutchinson, Kasimir Kaskisuo, Jack Campbell, David Rittich, Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov).

- Toronto Maple Leaf hiring Soo Greyhound Sheldon Keefe with Zero NHL coaching experience and getting outcoaced against everyone and leading to imbarassing losses to CBJ and Montreal and others.

- Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Denis Malgin from the Florida Panthers in exchange for Mason Marchment.
- Toronto Maple Leafs sign UFA Nick Ritchie and then deal him away with Leafs 2025 2nd round pick to unload.

- etc, etc etc

Conclusion: Leaf BIGGEST Mistake

A Fortune 500 company hiring a Clueless inexperienced greenhorn GM, that had no clue what he was doing who destroyed the Leafs best opportunity and Cup competitive window during the prime years of AM, MM and WN.

A total grocery list of incompetence

 

[Racer88]

It wouldn't have been a big deal had the cap not stayed flat for 4 years.

Yes it would because he was not what we needed at the time. That 11 million should have been spent on D and net.

 

[hotpaws]

What if i told you his boss was in control the whole time?

you're probably right since Shanny hired all his buddies from the Soo and forced them on the Dumbass

I want Shanny out because he hired an incompetent back stabbing weasel like Dubas and allowed him free reign , others want Shanny out because he fired the incompetent back stabbing weasel .

 

[Arzak]

A total grocery list of incompetence

epic failure, 1 1 dice throw. It's baffling, statistically golden retrievers could avoid one or two.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wasn't quoting Mess, I was quoting egd27 who specifically referenced you (very accurately at that) saying that Tavares' signing didn't influence the RFA signings.

You quoted egd27, who quoted Mess and incorrectly extrapolated from the altered quote. I've said that UFA contracts are not comparables for post-ELC contracts. That remains true. That's not even what's being argued.

 

[Hellcat]

The biggest mistake was trying to rush success instead of allowing the core of the team to develop.

If you're looking for 1 move which exemplifies this it would be signing JT. Since that caused a cascade of internal salary comps , which blew out the budget, cost us from keeping many good players we already had and didn't lead to winning.

But man there's lots of mistakes made all trying to force success instead of letting the good young core struggle. Trading too many pics, bad salary cap structure, letting the wrong players walk etc

This!!!

Dubas showed his immaturity as a GM trying to force the rebuild, Burke did the same thing with the Kessel trade. Immaturity has nothing to do with age, it has to do with a mindset.

For me the biggest mistake was our lack of good prospects, we didn't draft, develop well after the big 3. When you are in your Stanley Cup window you need many cheap, controllable contracts that over perform to compliment your higher paid stars, this normally comes from ELC's and players who are doing what ever they can do to just stay in the league. Our amateur and professional scouting was IMO the biggest minus over the last 8 years.

 

[Hellcat]

This is my top choice. The return for Kadri was abysmal. They basically gave him away. In the long run we could have afforded Kadri. I would have moved Kapanen and Johnsson way before moving Kadri.

My second choice would be, not staggering the ELC contracts better. Nylander and Marner were good enough to make the NHL in 2015/16. I think if we had burned a year of their ELC contracts that year we would have gotten both on cheaper 8 year deals. Instead of having our 3 best players expire at the same time. Was just bad management of those elite ELC players.

I haven't read through the entire thread butdid anyone say, letting go Lou for Dubas? I know Lou has some old school ticks, like no facial hair and no number above 40 , strange yes but would he have caved like Dubas did on the big 3 contracts? Would he have done the Kadri trade? My perception of the situation might be wrong, I feel like Dubas was always dealing from a self imposed position of disadvantage and Lou always looked in control. Would a stronger more hard ass personality as GM have changed anything?

 

[Nineteen67]

They werent "forced" to take anyone...

Blames Covid and Kadri.

 

[Nineteen67]

I don't care about the rest...

Does playoff performance matter or not? You can't have it both ways.

Assuming you will ignore this question or be a hypocrite and cite something that happened after he left.

Everyone knew he was a good player and if the cap and the rebuild was properly managed they would have re-signed him. Big fast tenacious wingers are sought after.

 

[Nineteen67]

Marleau comes to mind
Most importantly not properly developed AM, MM and Willie. If one of them have the mentality of Kuch, Mack, Drai, Toews, Kane, Kopitar or McD, we might not win a Cup but we would had won more than a round.

This lack of mental toughness and talent of those three might be the biggest problem.

 

[Nineteen67]

The Tavares contract destroyed this current window

- he was never good enough to earn anywhere near that deal
- it ruined our internal cap by parachuting a ufa in for 11m per and then not understanding Marner and Mathews who are both much better players would use that cap hit as the floor
- a 11m dollar second line C was the last thing this team needed since we already had Kadri on a great deal and neded tp spend that cap elsewhere
- you should also never sign a career loser who has the personality and mental capacity of a turnip to that cap hit and then slap the C on him

i can't believe a waited decades for the Leafs to have drafted an elite group of kids only to have ruined by one ufa signing

I was all for signing him and was excited at the time, but I was warned the day they signed they’d be in this exact spot.

 

[DarkKnight]

Giving Dubas the GM gig before the contracts. It still haunts us to this day.

 

[ULF_55]

Drafting players who don't have what it takes to raise their games in the playoffs.

Sure, I can see the mistakes that coaches and GM's have made... But I've seen different coaches, different GM's, a completely changed supporting cast, and the only constant left is the core.

Honestly, I'm mostly looking at Matthews and Marner. Superstar talent in the regular season.. but just not guys who raise their game at all in the playoffs.

Maybe they learn one day, and I'm proven wrong, and that's ok.

But my answer, is having drafted players who aren't winners.... Now, I don't think there were better players available, they were the right picks at those spots... but that's just the luck we have.

Pretty normal for there to be drop off in post-season.

Not all players can elevate their games.

Just a little disappointing Leafs hit a homerun in their 1st. overall pick but can't translate it to any success.

When you compare:
Draisaitl and McDavid
to
marner and Matthews

There is no comparision, and it isn't that two are older, they are just better.

I'd really like a G class but am very satisfied with my Hybrid CRV.

 

[notbias]

Everyone knew he was a good player and if the cap and the rebuild was properly managed they would have re-signed him. Big fast tenacious wingers are sought after.

Does playoff performance matter?

I am asking a very simple question.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Letting Shanahan run this team. Thanks for the tank job now gtfo should’ve been what they said to him in 2016.

 

[Nineteen67]

Does playoff performance matter?

I am asking a very simple question.

Sure it does. We saw the effort he gave while playing injured, but they weren’t close to being a contender when he was with the Leafs. With a proper rebuild and better management he’d likely still be on the Leafs and they wouldn’t be looking for a top 6 winger.

There were too many mistakes made that one player doesn’t fix everything.

 

[notbias]

Sure it does. We saw the effort he gave while playing injured, but they weren’t close to being a contender when he was with the Leafs. With a proper rebuild and better management he’d likely still be on the Leafs and they wouldn’t be looking for a top 6 winger.

There were too many mistakes made that one player doesn’t fix everything.

I can only assume you defend our star players and their production because they've played injured multiple seasons as well.

 

[Mess]

You quoted egd27, who quoted Mess and incorrectly extrapolated from the altered quote. I've said that UFA contracts are not comparables for post-ELC contracts. That remains true. That's not even what's being argued.

You're 100% right correct post-ELC & 2nd cost controllable RFA contracts are not like 3rd UFA contracts. That does remain true.

Only problem YOU and more importantly Leafs own GM Dubas don't understand what a RFA contract is either. Here I'll try and show you the difference..

Here are the NHL scoring Leaders from 2018-19 (where Marner and Point are coming out of their ELC contracts). Similar point production comparables.

Brayden Point - Normal Contract progression from ELC 1st Contract (.97 CH%) ---> RFA 2nd Contract (8.28 CH%) ---> UFA 3rd contract (11.52 CH%)

NOTE: During Point's 2nd RFA contract the TB Lightening won 2 X Stanley Cups and Brayden Point lead the 2020 & 2021 playoff in goals with 14 before signing his 3rd contract UFA contract.

Marner - from ELC 1st Contract (1.30 CH%) ---> UFA rate 2nd Contract (13.37 CH%) compares to the John Tavares --> UFA 3rd contract (13.84 CH%)

Notice how the UFA signing of Tavares at $11 mil on July 1st, 2018 @ 13.84 CH% by Dubas resulted in Marner skipping his RFA 2nd contract and despite having 4 X RFA years remaining signed for only -$100k less AAV per season @ 13.37 CH% on Sept 13, 2019 than teammate John Tavares who signed a year earlier @ $11 mil AAV under a slightly lower cap ceiling with all years at UFA rate.

See how now even a Clueless Dubas in hindsight reflection, recognized that by signing UFA Tavares FIRST, he reset Leafs internal Salary Scale and how both Marner and Matthews used that UFA contract to skip their RFA contracts taking advantage of a greenhorn GM?

Marner didn't follow the Brayden Point normal contract progression of ELC --> RFA -- UFA example above but rather used Leafs own pay scale to get a contract similar to Tavares as a UFA instead.

Hope that helps you understand the difference between a RFA (Team cost controllable) contract and a UFA (free agent rate) contract as the 1st X 3 years are ELC, and the next 4 X years are Restricted Free Agent and then after 7 years of NHL service do players as per the CBA qualify for Unrestricted free agent status,

Dubas screwed Leafs and Leafs Nation Fans out of the benefit of RFA contracts for MM and AM and as a result cost the Leafs their best opportunity at the Stanley Cup during that compete window.

This will go down as the BIGGEST mistake of the past decade and the end results of 1st round endless failure is the price Leaf Nation Fans was forced to pay for that gross incompetence. .

 

[notbias]

You're 100% right correct post-ELC & 2nd cost controllable RFA contracts are not like 3rd UFA contracts. That does remain true.

Only problem YOU and more importantly Leafs own GM Dubas don't understand what a RFA contract is either. Here I'll try and show you the difference..

Here are the NHL scoring Leaders from 2018-19 (where Marner and Point are coming out of their ELC contracts). Similar point production comparables.

View attachment 896959

Brayden Point - Normal Contract progression from ELC 1st Contract (.97 CH%) ---> RFA 2nd Contract (8.28 CH%) ---> UFA 3rd contract (11.52 CH%)

View attachment 896965

NOTE: During Point's 2nd RFA contract the TB Lightening won 2 X Stanley Cups and Brayden Point lead the 2020 & 2021 playoff in goals with 14 before signing his 3rd contract UFA contract.

View attachment 896972

Marner - from ELC 1st Contract (1.30 CH%) ---> UFA rate 2nd Contract (13.37 CH%) compares to the John Tavares --> UFA 3rd contract (13.84 CH%)

View attachment 896967

Notice how the UFA signing of Tavares at $11 mil on July 1st, 2018 @ 13.84 CH% by Dubas resulted in Marner skipping his RFA 2nd contract and despite having 4 X RFA years remaining signed for only -$100k less AAV per season @ 13.37 CH% on Sept 13, 2019 than teammate John Tavares who signed a year earlier @ $11 mil AAV under a slightly lower cap ceiling with all years at UFA rate.

See how now even a Clueless Dubas in hindsight reflection, recognized that by signing UFA Tavares FIRST, he reset Leafs internal Salary Scale and how both Marner and Matthews used that UFA contract to skip their RFA contracts taking advantage of a greenhorn GM?

Marner didn't follow the Brayden Point normal contract progression of ELC --> RFA -- UFA example above but rather used Leafs own pay scale to get a contract similar to Tavares as a UFA instead.

Hope that helps you understand the difference between a RFA (Team cost controllable) contract and a UFA (free agent rate) contract as the 1st X 3 years are ELC, and the next 4 X years are Restricted Free Agent and then after 7 years of NHL service do players as per the CBA qualify for Unrestricted free agent status,

Dubas screwed Leafs and Leafs Nation Fans out of the benefit of RFA contracts for MM and AM and as a result cost the Leafs their best opportunity at the Stanley Cup during that compete window.

This will go down as the BIGGEST mistake of the past decade and the end results of 1st round endless failure is the price Leaf Nation Fans was forced to pay for that gross incompetence. .

A lot of text, let me summarize it.

"Point took a bridge deal and played with the leading scoring in the league, Marner led his team in points and didn't take a bridge deal."

Point's most common linemate during his 92 point season was Kucherov.

Marner's most common linemate during his 94 point season was Tavares.

Point also had a lot more PPP, which is another perk of playing with Kucherov.

So, yes, if you ignore contract length, teammates, and pretty much all context, it is a great post Mess.