Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[Fogelhund]

How long were the 26 in the league and in what roles prior to getting their first GM position?

varied... Point being.. "rookie" GM isn't a qualifier to hate Dubas... y'all have plenty of other reasons.

 

[CDN24]

Every team signed high-end players during that time, but did any team sign as many as Toronto?

So far by your example, the answer is very clearly no, so thanks for helping with that.

In addition to signing Kucherov and Point, Tampa also gave Vasilisky an 9.5 AAV extension in July 2019. The flat cap is a poor excuse for bad decisions. the flat cap affected everyone, some were better an managing it. The difference, Tampa did not give 3 F a combined 33.5M. Kucherov and Vasilisky got 9.5 M after taking bridges on their 2nd contract, Point got a 3 year bridge. The issue always was giving UFA money to M&M on less than max term deals.

The flat Cap also provided opportunity to get UFAs a bit cheaper in 2020 and 2021 off seasons. Guys like Toffoli going 4 4.5M, Hyman at 5.5M, Tanev at 4.5M, Ullmark at 5M, Savard at 3.5M. In a non flat cap all those guys go for more

 

[ACC1224]

varied... Point being.. "rookie" GM isn't a qualifier to hate Dubas... y'all have plenty of other reasons.

'Green' is a better description than 'rookie'.
Being inexperienced was his biggest obstacle.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Making the playoffs in 16-17.

 

[29Potvin]

2012 when Bell/Rogers became owners

 

[LeafEgo]

#1 Biggest mistake was hiring Dubas once the golden road was built.

#2 Biggest mistake was not firing Dubas early enough to allow for a recovery.

Going down a level:
Tier 1 mistakes - Keefe, JT, RFA negotiations, goaltending, farcical hockey philosophy, weak culture, and mortgaging the future.

Tier 2 mistakes - The numerous isolated faceplants (Kadri, Hyman, Marleau/Jarvis, Holl/McCann, Campbell, Murray, Mrazek, etc.)

Shanny is ultimately responsible.

 

[Fogelhund]

imo this was the plan. create a scenario where we have a surplus of top offensive talent to be able to attract a trade from another team for one of there top Defensive talents. something we had seen happen in the past with the Ryjo/Jones deal. Tavares signing was our chance to replace say a Kadri/Nylander who would be dealt in that scenario for free.

unfortunately Kadri did what he did and they felt forced to move him the following off season and now if they still got a quality top 4 guy in return they would have been fine instead that trade was a disaster. and that to me is the biggest failure of the current team because if that trade was for a quality Dmen who was a long term top 4 guy for us that would have changed a lot of the future moves. Barrie was a complete disaster tho.

The deal was reportedly going to include Kadri and Connor Brown going to the Flames for defenceman TJ Brodie and forward Mark Jankowski.

This is the deal Kadri vetoed. Brodie would have been a win, though we ended up with him anyway. Ironic that Brodie ends up in Toronto, and Kadri in Calgary in the end anyway.

Jankowski was looking like a good 3C, but his game dropped off after 2019 anyway.

 

[francis246]

Tanking increases the odds, doesn’t make it perfect but gives you a better chance. Moreover we’d maybe have gotten a better return for kessel if dealt earlier, we should’ve sold some other pieces to get more draft capital and maybe not end up with marner + bracco + dermott. That team was unremarkable at best, there should’ve been 0 attempt at making the playoffs when we had just drafted 8th overall last year

If you tank to last you get eichel, a better player is that hard?

Kessel had a NMC or limited NMC that made him incredibly hard to trade and not to mention his salary was 8 mill as a winger. It was basically the Marner situation. Kessel did not want to leave Toronto and Kessel was only willing to waive to Pittsburgh. So Toronto had no choice but to trade him there.

The Kessel return didn’t have an effect on who we drafted. The decisions we made at the draft affected who we drafted. No one forced Dubas and Hunter to trade down. We could have stood pat and walked away with Konecny, Marner and a defenseman in the second round. Or even if we replicate the trade down we could have gotten Carlo or Aho and other better guys.

 

[Fogelhund]

'Green' is a better description than 'rookie'.
Being inexperienced was his biggest obstacle.

Sure... no problem with that. But in the end, it appears as though the cards he was given, weren't winning cards anyway. That's not to absolve him of his mistakes, but I don't think it even matters when the star players don't know how to win. I don't think it matters what a coach does, who the support cast is, what a GM does... if your core is rotten, and won't raise their game... it's over.

 

[Gary Nylund]

26 of the last 31 cups have been won by GMs in their first NHL GM role.

Huh, never would have guessed that. Interesting factoid!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sure... no problem with that. But in the end, it appears as though the cards he was given, weren't winning cards anyway. That's not to absolve him of his mistakes, but I don't think it even matters when the star players don't know how to win. I don't think it matters what a coach does, who the support cast is, what a GM does... if your core is rotten, and won't raise their game... it's over.

I agree with this. Dubas made some mistakes but overall, I think he did a much better job than people give him credit for. His biggest mistake was betting that this bunch of cupcakes we have in our core group could get it done but guess what, 99% of all GM's would have done exactly the same thing. At least that would have been the case for the first few years, I wanted to look into trading Marner after the MTL debacle and I assume some GM's would have thought the same way and Dubas didn't have the balls, or the foresight (or maybe the permission) to do that but still ... that core looked so full of promise that betting on them made a ton of sense.

Like you said, this core is rotten and we'll never win the cup with them, end of story. Hell we might not even get past round 2 with this core and I'm still amazed by the idiots who scold people who understand this with comments like "you don't appreciate what you're watching" or "these guys are all-time greats" or "they will be on legends row" and all this other irrelevant nonsense.

 

[egd27]

Kyle Dubas admits his biggest mistake in his time as Maple Leafs GM​

Source: Toronto Sun
Leafs' Notes: Dubas admits biggest mistake

Kyle Dubas' time as the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs was full of ups and downs, and now that a year has passed since his departure, he's had some time to reflect on the journey.

In retrospect, there was one moment that defined Dubas' tenure in Toronto more than any other: signing John Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million ($11 million AAV) contract in 2018. Six years later, Dubas reflected on that moment in the upcoming book "The Franchise: The Business of Building Winning Teams," written by Craig Custance of The Athletic. Dubas said he doesn't regret signing Tavares to that deal, but he wished he handled some aspects surrounding it differently.

​

By lifting the ceiling, it seems Dubas is referencing the exuberant cost to eventually re-sign Matthews, Nylander and Marner after Tavares had signed.
It's not rocket science and Leafs fans everywhere have said from the beginning that not getting the trio to at least sign for eight years was the worst thing he could've done. Could you imagine if Dubas had gotten Matthews and Marner well in advance of the Tavares deal? It may very well have saved the Leafs an extra $3-$5M combined had Dubas gone after both players on 8-year deals prior to bringing Tavares in at his $11M.

The problem wasn't signing Tavares to that deal, but the can of worms it opened. Nylander signed a 6-year deal worth $45.09 million ($7.51 million AAV) in December of 2018 after a holdout, Matthews signed a 5-year deal worth $58.2 million ($11.64 million AAV) in February of 2019, and Marner signed a 6-year deal worth $65.41 million ($10.9 million AAV) in September of 2019.

The problem with those deals isn't necessarily the value of them, but that they got unrestricted free agent money when they were only restricted free agents.

"We can and We Will"

I can't believe Kyle said that because @Dekes For Days assured me (and many others) that the the Tavares signing had absolutely no impact on the 3 RFA contract amounts.

 

[Fogelhund]

I agree with this. Dubas made some mistakes but overall, I think he did a much better job than people give him credit for. His biggest mistake was betting that this bunch of cupcakes we have in our core group could get it done but guess what, 99% of all GM's would have done exactly the same thing. At least that would have been the case for the first few years, I wanted to look into trading Marner after the MTL debacle and I assume some GM's would have thought the same way and Dubas didn't have the balls, or the foresight (or maybe the permission) to do that but still ... that core looked so full of promise that betting on them made a ton of sense.

Like you said, this core is rotten and we'll never win the cup with them, end of story. Hell we might not even get past round 2 with this core and I'm still amazed by the idiots who scold people who understand this with comments like "you don't appreciate what you're watching" or "these guys are all-time greats" or "they will be on legends row" and all this other irrelevant nonsense.

They are all time greats in many ways. Matthews best regular season scorer we will have ever had. Marner is an elite winger, on a level like few we've had. We are witnessing a collection of talent, that has lead to some of the best regular seasons in Leafs history.

ALSO

They are complete failures in the playoffs... when it counts.

----------

To some degree, patience is needed... you need to allow guys to mature, and grow into winners. We've seen that many times with other organizations.

I wonder if Dubas even had the autonomy to make the changes that you suggest, and I've suggested.... to me it appeared as though he wanted to make changes and Shanahan wouldn't let him... and then he walked.

Then Shanahan says this...

“There is a time for preaching patience, and there is a time when you have to examine the patterns that persist… Everything will be on the table”​

... and then, nothing happened. I'd love to see another interview, asking him... you said the time for patience was over, everything was on the table and then.... nothing...

People are mad about Dubas... but it appears as though Shanahan is equally at blame here too.....

But mostly, we drafted elite talents, who don't know how to win.

 

[mjd1001]

Paying top dollar for every one of their top players.
Most teams who are successful and go deep into the playoffs have a bargain on their roster, at least at one point. With the Leafs, the moment any of their top guys were asking for top dollar, the Leafs were like "SURE! back up the truck, we love you so much!"

 

[notbias]

In addition to signing Kucherov and Point, Tampa also gave Vasilisky an 9.5 AAV extension in July 2019. The flat cap is a poor excuse for bad decisions. the flat cap affected everyone, some were better an managing it. The difference, Tampa did not give 3 F a combined 33.5M. Kucherov and Vasilisky got 9.5 M after taking bridges on their 2nd contract, Point got a 3 year bridge. The issue always was giving UFA money to M&M on less than max term deals.

The flat Cap also provided opportunity to get UFAs a bit cheaper in 2020 and 2021 off seasons. Guys like Toffoli going 4 4.5M, Hyman at 5.5M, Tanev at 4.5M, Ullmark at 5M, Savard at 3.5M. In a non flat cap all those guys go for more

Point didn't make 9.5 until 2022, he was bridged during that time.

So essentially they should have just bridged a few of them (not against this), maybe you can argue that, but because Tampa was in a cap crunch, they had to bridge Point which turned out good for them.

The Leafs had a lot of space so decided to do longer-term deals and the % towards the end of term would be a lot better if the cap rose like it was supposed to.

I don't see the point you're making here, so far not a single team you've presented had big contracts being signed like Toronto.

I am sure other teams were affected a lot too (can't think of which), but you haven't shown any yet.

 

[Lemontree]

* Hiring Shanahan as President.

Shanahan being so ignorant to believe that Dubas is intelligent and would "change" the game of hockey, that Dubas lknew better than everyone else on how WINNING hockey should be played.

Shanahan was dumb enough to want to re-sign Dubas and keep him on as the GM until he made a power play for the President role.

No one has done more damage to the Toronto Maple Leafs since Ballard. Not even Richard Peddie did as much damage to the Leafs on ice success as Shanahan.

 

[CDN24]

Point didn't make 9.5 until 2022, he was bridged during that time.

So essentially they should have just bridged a few of them (not against this), maybe you can argue that, but because Tampa was in a cap crunch, they had to bridge Point which turned out good for them.

The Leafs had a lot of space so decided to do longer-term deals and the % towards the end of term would be a lot better if the cap rose like it was supposed to.

I don't see the point you're making here, so far not a single team you've presented had big contracts being signed like Toronto.

I am sure other teams were affected a lot too (can't think of which), but you haven't shown any yet.

Exactly, there was no need to give them UFA money on short mid-term deals. They were not longer term, Matthews was 5 years (one UFA year), and Marner was 6 (2 UFA years). They (players) had zero leverage. The threat of an offer sheet? Dubas caved and gave them 11.6 and 10.8M. No way there were getting more than that on offersheet. An offersheet would have been a good thing as it would have likely been a lower AAV for you to match. If there was a offersheet out there for North of what Marner got it would have been offerred to Rantannen or Point. Both were and are better players IMO and Point signed a Bridge at 6.75M and Rantannen same term as Marner but at 9.25M AAV.

If he could not get them on max term 8 years, then he should have gone the bridge route. Had he bridged them with the Point contract we might not be talking about 67.

Is it that Tampa had to bridge point or is it that they bridge everybody? Kucherov, Point, Vasi, cirelli, sergachev, They all got Bridged. Makes it kind of easy when you set an organizational standard like that. Next guy will likely be bridged too

 

[Gary Nylund]

They are all time greats in many ways. Matthews best regular season scorer we will have ever had. Marner is an elite winger, on a level like few we've had. We are witnessing a collection of talent, that has lead to some of the best regular seasons in Leafs history.

ALSO

They are complete failures in the playoffs... when it counts.

----------

To some degree, patience is needed... you need to allow guys to mature, and grow into winners. We've seen that many times with other organizations.

I wonder if Dubas even had the autonomy to make the changes that you suggest, and I've suggested.... to me it appeared as though he wanted to make changes and Shanahan wouldn't let him... and then he walked.

Then Shanahan says this...

“There is a time for preaching patience, and there is a time when you have to examine the patterns that persist… Everything will be on the table”​

... and then, nothing happened. I'd love to see another interview, asking him... you said the time for patience was over, everything was on the table and then.... nothing...

People are mad about Dubas... but it appears as though Shanahan is equally at blame here too.....

But mostly, we drafted elite talents, who don't know how to win.

All time regular season greats.

 

[Lemontree]

Tavares was UFA.

His contract should not have been any part of RFA signings.

Rookie GM

100%. I can't believe most people don't comprehend this. It's commonly known that majority of players (especially all-star level players) are overpaid in Free Agency since it becomes a market with multiple teams bidding against each other.

None of the RFAs could reasonably point to the Tavares UFA deal as a comparable to them as the situations are not at all comparable. Matthews is the only one that could even suggest, since he is a Center who all signs pointed to being an elite goal scorer in the future.

Tavares had been a Hart finalist playing with next to no skill for his entire career on the Island. He played out his contract and earned the right to go to UFA. How the hell Marner, a small (below average goal scorer) play making winger got basically the same contract (coming off his ELC - with no leverage) as a UFA Tavares who was viewed as a #1 or an elite #2 center at the time of singing the contract is absolutely ridiculous.

Its just another example of how terrible Dubas was here, the fact that he couldn't seem to understand or communicate to the Marner camp the difference in situations is one of many examples of why was (and still is) and terrible hockey executive who is in completely over his head.

 

[Mess]

I can't believe Kyle said that because @Dekes For Days assured me (and many others) that the the Tavares signing had absolutely no impact on the 3 RFA contract amounts.

Pretty hard to rebuttal something that came directly from the horses mouth.

Paying UFA contract prices for RFA cost controllable players because JT contract reset the internal pay scale in Toronto no longer needs debating because Dubas now openly admits it himself.

What should make all Leaf fans so angry is Leafs had one opportunity from MLSE to tank for Matthews and do a proper draft rebuild while ownership sacrificed playoff gate receipts and down years, to eventually have that young cheap high-end talent compete for the CUP.

So while Dubas was handing out ridiculous contracts to Matthews and Marner skipping the the 2nd bridge contracts at RFA prices..

Brayden Point coming off a similar point season to Marner signs a 3 year bridge deal for $ 20.25M ($6.75 mil AAV) .. Point went on to lead the playoffs in goals 14 X 2 years and TB to 2 X Stanley Cups, using his Bridge contract the road to TB's Cup,

This is while Leafs were losing in embarrassing fashion to CBJ and Montreal because of the outrages contracts give Marner and Matthews.

Toronto will never be given a 2nd change to have multiple top 10 picks while MLSE allows another tank again having young kids playing on ELC and then 2nd cost controllable to have a Stanley Cup Compete window wide open. Marner on the Point bridge deal would have given TO +$4 mil cap space alone for depth talent and stronger supporting cast.

One real chance while AM, WN, an MM were either ELC or 2nd bridge deals to hoist the Cup.. Now that Leafs have 4 of the top 10 highest paid players in the game all on one team in Salary Cap World any Cup dream is a Cinderella fairy pipe dream to win a Cup with the least supporting cast and depth.

 

[ToneDog]

100%. I can't believe most people don't comprehend this. It's commonly known that majority of players (especially all-star level players) are overpaid in Free Agency since it becomes a market with multiple teams bidding against each other.

None of the RFAs could reasonably point to the Tavares UFA deal as a comparable to them as the situations are not at all comparable. Matthews is the only one that could even suggest, since he is a Center who all signs pointed to being an elite goal scorer in the future.

Tavares had been a Hart finalist playing with next to no skill for his entire career on the Island. He played out his contract and earned the right to go to UFA. How the hell Marner, a small (below average goal scorer) play making winger got basically the same contract (coming off his ELC - with no leverage) as a UFA Tavares who was viewed as a #1 or an elite #2 center at the time of singing the contract is absolutely ridiculous.

Its just another example of how terrible Dubas was here, the fact that he couldn't seem to understand or communicate to the Marner camp the difference in situations is one of many examples of why was (and still is) and terrible hockey executive who is in completely over his head.

What is funnier or sadder is that the local hometown kid, who loves the Leafs turned it down, only to accept the deal after the Leafs leaked it and fans and media went ballistic. Many fans have no love for this guy. Add that he plays scared and avoids contact like the plague and its clear why fans want him gone.

 

[HolyCrap]

Hiring Shanny and then Shanny hiring Dubas which lead to an accelerated rebuild while handing out over payments for contracts.

 

[Brown Dog]

I love JT for taking on the challenge of "coming home," when so many others have shrunk from similar opportunities, instead choosing to hide in the anonymity of non-traditional hockey markets south of the border.

But with the benefit of hindsight, it's hard to see that signing as anything but the turning point for this era of futility.

Ultimately, I think it came down to Dubas incorrectly banking on our RFAs playing by the old rules. Instead, they used UFA Tavares as a measuring stick based in the concept of the "internal cap structure." Not having his finger on that pulse was Dubas's biggest gaffe and basically thrust us into damage-control mode ever since.

 

[Gabriel426]

Marleau comes to mind
Most importantly not properly developed AM, MM and Willie. If one of them have the mentality of Kuch, Mack, Drai, Toews, Kane, Kopitar or McD, we might not win a Cup but we would had won more than a round.

 

[IPS]

I can't believe Kyle said that because @Dekes For Days assured me (and many others) that the the Tavares signing had absolutely no impact on the 3 RFA contract amounts.

@Dekes For Days thoughts?