Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Too many to count

 

[Aashir Mallik]

If we are talking strictly this iteration of the leafs, I’d agree that finding one mistake to call “biggest” is hard

- Signing Tavares
- All 3 RFA contracts
- Giving Nylander and Matthews their current contracts
- Trading Kadri for a redundant rental
- all of the draft misses combined become a pretty big miss

I guess my idea would be hiring dubas in the first place. He brought no where near enough good to supplement the bad, if I could go back and have the power to change one thing, it would be the leafs not hiring dubas at all.

Outside this iteration (Matthews draft era)
- rask for raycroft set the team back a lot
- kessel trade was really really bad
- not tanking aggressively for mcdavid. We didn’t even start properly till after the new year.

 

[ToneDog]

this bolded part to me is the real key to everything that has cascaded since ... if the cap was 100+mill today would there be as much arguing over contracts? maybe, maybe not .... i suspect there would be more 10+ players league wide as well

there was definitely an inherent risk in signing the "core" to those contracts but it was done with a certain cap projection in mind, when that went kaput they chose to continue to double down instead of adjusting, to me that decision has led us to we are today

we are where we are, and sadly with shanabang in charge i do not see any changes forthcoming ... maybe (fingers crossed) he ticks off pelley and is not renewed

maybe even worse than that is i will continue to follow the team, hope beyond hope, and at my age i guess i even look at a spring collapse as a good thing, means i am still on the right side of the grass lol

If the cap was $100m, Matty would be getting $16.25m, Willie $13.5 and Marner would be asking for $14.5m. Money trumps winning for these 3 and none are going through a wall to win. 1 and 8 is more than proof but let's keep trying because it took Yzerman 13 years.

 

[Mess]

Kyle Dubas admits his biggest mistake in his time as Maple Leafs GM​

Source: Toronto Sun
Leafs' Notes: Dubas admits biggest mistake

Kyle Dubas' time as the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs was full of ups and downs, and now that a year has passed since his departure, he's had some time to reflect on the journey.

In retrospect, there was one moment that defined Dubas' tenure in Toronto more than any other: signing John Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million ($11 million AAV) contract in 2018. Six years later, Dubas reflected on that moment in the upcoming book "The Franchise: The Business of Building Winning Teams," written by Craig Custance of The Athletic. Dubas said he doesn't regret signing Tavares to that deal, but he wished he handled some aspects surrounding it differently.

“The biggest mistake I think I’ve made in my whole time here has been not taking care of the three incumbent contracts,” Dubas told Custance, per the Toronto Sun. “(William) Nylander was up, (Mitch) Marner and (Auston) Matthews could have been done on July 1 extensions. “The thing I learned was once we signed John to the (AAV) we did, it lifted the lid on the entire ceiling."

​

By lifting the ceiling, it seems Dubas is referencing the exuberant cost to eventually re-sign Matthews, Nylander and Marner after Tavares had signed.
It's not rocket science and Leafs fans everywhere have said from the beginning that not getting the trio to at least sign for eight years was the worst thing he could've done. Could you imagine if Dubas had gotten Matthews and Marner well in advance of the Tavares deal? It may very well have saved the Leafs an extra $3-$5M combined had Dubas gone after both players on 8-year deals prior to bringing Tavares in at his $11M.

The problem wasn't signing Tavares to that deal, but the can of worms it opened. Nylander signed a 6-year deal worth $45.09 million ($7.51 million AAV) in December of 2018 after a holdout, Matthews signed a 5-year deal worth $58.2 million ($11.64 million AAV) in February of 2019, and Marner signed a 6-year deal worth $65.41 million ($10.9 million AAV) in September of 2019.

The problem with those deals isn't necessarily the value of them, but that they got unrestricted free agent money when they were only restricted free agents.

"We can and We Will"

 

[ToneDog]

If we are talking strictly this iteration of the leafs, I’d agree that finding one mistake to call “biggest” is hard

- Signing Tavares
- All 3 RFA contracts
- Giving Nylander and Matthews their current contracts
- Trading Kadri for a redundant rental
- all of the draft misses combined become a pretty big miss

I guess my idea would be hiring dubas in the first place. He brought no where near enough good to supplement the bad, if I could go back and have the power to change one thing, it would be the leafs not hiring dubas at all.

Outside this iteration (Matthews draft era)
- rask for raycroft set the team back a lot
- kessel trade was really really bad
- not tanking aggressively for mcdavid. We didn’t even start properly till after the new year.

Never thought about tanking that year. Oilers get McDavid. We get Marner. They reach the SCF, we hit the golf courses and cottages.

 

[Kazparov]

I disagree about rushing success. I think as soon as you have your golden goose get them winning. Don't let them develop in the league on a basement team like Eichel. The time to leave a losing culture in the past is as soon as you can.

I'd say the biggest mistakes made were contract salary, term and flexibility, in the opposite order.

Going to use an old Chinese proverb here:
"Too much poking ruins a small fish"

I agree that you have to create the proper environment to succeed. Draft development coaching , culture obviously hugely important.

The issue I'm speaking of it the management always taking a short term approach the "just push them over the edge" instead of allowing the players to mature on their own. This leads to trading away future success (picks) and over paying free agents Marleau JT etc.

Sometimes when you're frying a fish, it's best to let it do it's thing in the pan instead of constantly poking at it .

 

[notbias]

They werent "forced" to take anyone...

Okay, they could have kept the liability who got suspended once more in the playoffs, even after the trade.

That sounds even worse.

They aren't forced to do anything, yes I know.

 

[notbias]

Kyle Dubas admits his biggest mistake in his time as Maple Leafs GM​

Source: Toronto Sun
Leafs' Notes: Dubas admits biggest mistake

Kyle Dubas' time as the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs was full of ups and downs, and now that a year has passed since his departure, he's had some time to reflect on the journey.

In retrospect, there was one moment that defined Dubas' tenure in Toronto more than any other: signing John Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million ($11 million AAV) contract in 2018. Six years later, Dubas reflected on that moment in the upcoming book "The Franchise: The Business of Building Winning Teams," written by Craig Custance of The Athletic. Dubas said he doesn't regret signing Tavares to that deal, but he wished he handled some aspects surrounding it differently.

​

By lifting the ceiling, it seems Dubas is referencing the exuberant cost to eventually re-sign Matthews, Nylander and Marner after Tavares had signed.
It's not rocket science and Leafs fans everywhere have said from the beginning that not getting the trio to at least sign for eight years was the worst thing he could've done. Could you imagine if Dubas had gotten Matthews and Marner well in advance of the Tavares deal? It may very well have saved the Leafs an extra $3-$5M combined had Dubas gone after both players on 8-year deals prior to bringing Tavares in at his $11M.

The problem wasn't signing Tavares to that deal, but the can of worms it opened. Nylander signed a 6-year deal worth $45.09 million ($7.51 million AAV) in December of 2018 after a holdout, Matthews signed a 5-year deal worth $58.2 million ($11.64 million AAV) in February of 2019, and Marner signed a 6-year deal worth $65.41 million ($10.9 million AAV) in September of 2019.

The problem with those deals isn't necessarily the value of them, but that they got unrestricted free agent money when they were only restricted free agents.

"We can and We Will"

I could have written this for you... bunch of buzzwords with no substance, leaving out the quote from the staff member who worked with Dubas saying it was Covid but Dubas would never use that as an excuse, most predictable post in this thread.

 

[Da Mash]

Well…it’s kind of a tricky question because of the covid pandemic and the freezing of the cap.

Their biggest one was paying Taveres 11 mil a yr. It set the mark of value to the agents. They should have let SJ sign him.

Everything trickled down from there.
Secondly we never addressed our D or had a reliable goalie.

Add all that and how the refs turn a blind eye so they don’t look bias about penalties but teams like the Avs always lead the league in PP’s hurts the leafs. We have all witnessed how the refs can dictate a game.

Playoffs? Well…as you know I’m not a fan on why rules change to benefit the goons in playoffs. I don’t accept “it’s the way it is” as no other sport does this.

It does affect the Leafs and other teams in the playoffs more than others and no one wonder the trade deadline is all about picking up big defencemen and 3rd and 4th liners.

To top it all off.

The sports media in Toronto is one of the worst. Constant whine and fans believe in a lot of hogwash they spew.

We made hero’s out of Max Domi and the tuckers of the teams and they won squat…while others worthy of praise like Sundin got shit on at the end of his career.

Habs would never treat their all time leading points player like that but that’s the type of crap that has been happening in TO for decades.

 

[NVious]

Giving 4 similar players (soft skill guys) basically max contracts while trading away/losing tougher competitive guys like Kadri/Hyman.

All 4 of them range from decent (Nylander only) to complete playoff dud (Tavares) while getting paid McDrai money.

It falls on Shanahan and his abysmal vision, but here we are with him and the rest of the losers back.

People think Tanev is gonna make the difference, but Giordano was only three years removed from winning the Norris when he came to Toronto, it went nowhere because you can't expect 35+ D men to do all that much.

Again, no vision and no balls, if they had vision and balls they would've forced Tavares/Marner to go and tried something else.

 

[ULF_55]

Kyle Dubas admits his biggest mistake in his time as Maple Leafs GM​

Source: Toronto Sun
Leafs' Notes: Dubas admits biggest mistake

Kyle Dubas' time as the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs was full of ups and downs, and now that a year has passed since his departure, he's had some time to reflect on the journey.

In retrospect, there was one moment that defined Dubas' tenure in Toronto more than any other: signing John Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million ($11 million AAV) contract in 2018. Six years later, Dubas reflected on that moment in the upcoming book "The Franchise: The Business of Building Winning Teams," written by Craig Custance of The Athletic. Dubas said he doesn't regret signing Tavares to that deal, but he wished he handled some aspects surrounding it differently.

​

By lifting the ceiling, it seems Dubas is referencing the exuberant cost to eventually re-sign Matthews, Nylander and Marner after Tavares had signed.
It's not rocket science and Leafs fans everywhere have said from the beginning that not getting the trio to at least sign for eight years was the worst thing he could've done. Could you imagine if Dubas had gotten Matthews and Marner well in advance of the Tavares deal? It may very well have saved the Leafs an extra $3-$5M combined had Dubas gone after both players on 8-year deals prior to bringing Tavares in at his $11M.

The problem wasn't signing Tavares to that deal, but the can of worms it opened. Nylander signed a 6-year deal worth $45.09 million ($7.51 million AAV) in December of 2018 after a holdout, Matthews signed a 5-year deal worth $58.2 million ($11.64 million AAV) in February of 2019, and Marner signed a 6-year deal worth $65.41 million ($10.9 million AAV) in September of 2019.

The problem with those deals isn't necessarily the value of them, but that they got unrestricted free agent money when they were only restricted free agents.

"We can and We Will"

Find it funny when Nylander is included in those bad contracts.

All the double digits made >50% more than Nylander.

Dubas overpaid for Matthews and marner.
He had control but was too afraid to hold firm. History has proven they weren't worth it.
Tavares was UFA and you pay extra for scarce resource assets.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

We've made so many there are tiers or levels of how damaging they were. ROR, Foglino, Marleau all cost us 1st round picks

But are any of those in our top 5 mistakes? We've made many errors and continue to do so it's hard to pick a favorite. Although I certainly have one in mind

 

[darrylsittler27]

Too many to count

Yeah when you look at the Leafs its like its done on purpose. Colorado asks to talk to Dubas and then he gets traded there for a bag of pucks? Im not saying it is but they make so many bad moves you lose count. Signing Tavares and then launching Kadri seems to be where they lost it.

 

[QJo]

Kyle Dubas admits his biggest mistake in his time as Maple Leafs GM​

Source: Toronto Sun
Leafs' Notes: Dubas admits biggest mistake

Kyle Dubas' time as the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs was full of ups and downs, and now that a year has passed since his departure, he's had some time to reflect on the journey.

In retrospect, there was one moment that defined Dubas' tenure in Toronto more than any other: signing John Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million ($11 million AAV) contract in 2018. Six years later, Dubas reflected on that moment in the upcoming book "The Franchise: The Business of Building Winning Teams," written by Craig Custance of The Athletic. Dubas said he doesn't regret signing Tavares to that deal, but he wished he handled some aspects surrounding it differently.

​

By lifting the ceiling, it seems Dubas is referencing the exuberant cost to eventually re-sign Matthews, Nylander and Marner after Tavares had signed.
It's not rocket science and Leafs fans everywhere have said from the beginning that not getting the trio to at least sign for eight years was the worst thing he could've done. Could you imagine if Dubas had gotten Matthews and Marner well in advance of the Tavares deal? It may very well have saved the Leafs an extra $3-$5M combined had Dubas gone after both players on 8-year deals prior to bringing Tavares in at his $11M.

The problem wasn't signing Tavares to that deal, but the can of worms it opened. Nylander signed a 6-year deal worth $45.09 million ($7.51 million AAV) in December of 2018 after a holdout, Matthews signed a 5-year deal worth $58.2 million ($11.64 million AAV) in February of 2019, and Marner signed a 6-year deal worth $65.41 million ($10.9 million AAV) in September of 2019.

The problem with those deals isn't necessarily the value of them, but that they got unrestricted free agent money when they were only restricted free agents.

"We can and We Will"

To me this is bad self reflection. Basically he's saying he had to give the RFAs big contracts because he made a signing that is perfectly explainable and something almost any GM with the cap space would have done.
A more honest self reflection would be that he wasn't experienced enough to handle the RFAs after landing another big fish. The mistake was the contracts that followed the Tavares one.
But that admission would be a harsher criticism of his abilities than 'most GMs would have done the same it just had unfortunate future unforseen consequences'.
Try 'My biggest mistake was constructing the teams salary properly after the Tavares signing. I didn't use the RFA status granted to me in the CBA properly and to my full advantage.' (A much harder thing to say in the mirror)

 

[francis246]

If I could change one thing post lockout, it's likely the trading of Nazem Kadri. That may sound weird, but that trade was so emotionally charged (and I was sick of Kadri too) and if we don't trade him. It's the biggest what if moment of the Shanahan era for me.

And maybe Kadri walks at the end of that, I wouldn't have signed him to the contract BT did, but until then he was on a pretty great contract and would've fit nicely into this roster in a lot of ways. He's the kind of player we've been kind of begging for since he left.

That or signing JT. As much as I think he's been good for most of his contract, he's the contract that is hurting us most.

The craziest part is we could have afforded to keep Kadri for at least two more seasons after. We would have lost him to UFA but so what. It was such an emotional trade.

 

[Fogelhund]

Drafting players who don't have what it takes to raise their games in the playoffs.

Sure, I can see the mistakes that coaches and GM's have made... But I've seen different coaches, different GM's, a completely changed supporting cast, and the only constant left is the core.

Honestly, I'm mostly looking at Matthews and Marner. Superstar talent in the regular season.. but just not guys who raise their game at all in the playoffs.

Maybe they learn one day, and I'm proven wrong, and that's ok.

But my answer, is having drafted players who aren't winners.... Now, I don't think there were better players available, they were the right picks at those spots... but that's just the luck we have.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Overpaying / entitled culture
Bad trades
Questionable drafts
Hyman
Tavares didn't work in hindsight but was exciting and the happiest I've felt in a long time

And finally, acknowledgement that the core four model is flawed and not salvageable and refusing to change course in any meaningful way

 

[SnizzNasty88]

The biggest mistake was bringing in that piece of shit fraud lifetime loser Kyle Dumbass.

 

[francis246]

If we are talking strictly this iteration of the leafs, I’d agree that finding one mistake to call “biggest” is hard

- Signing Tavares
- All 3 RFA contracts
- Giving Nylander and Matthews their current contracts
- Trading Kadri for a redundant rental
- all of the draft misses combined become a pretty big miss

I guess my idea would be hiring dubas in the first place. He brought no where near enough good to supplement the bad, if I could go back and have the power to change one thing, it would be the leafs not hiring dubas at all.

Outside this iteration (Matthews draft era)
- rask for raycroft set the team back a lot
- kessel trade was really really bad
- not tanking aggressively for mcdavid. We didn’t even start properly till after the new year.

The team that tanked the hardest (Buffalo didn’t even get McDavid). At the end of the lottery, we were one ball from getting McDavid. And we ended up with the second best or third best player in the 2015 draft. It’s all luck. If that ball drops our way we end up with Mcdavid. Literally came down to the last ball in the lottery between us and Edmonton.

 

[francis246]

Drafting players who don't have what it takes to raise their games in the playoffs.

Sure, I can see the mistakes that coaches and GM's have made... But I've seen different coaches, different GM's, a completely changed supporting cast, and the only constant left is the core.

Honestly, I'm mostly looking at Matthews and Marner. Superstar talent in the regular season.. but just not guys who raise their game at all in the playoffs.

Maybe they learn one day, and I'm proven wrong, and that's ok.

But my answer, is having drafted players who aren't winners.... Now, I don't think there were better players available, they were the right picks at those spots... but that's just the luck we have.

This might be the hardest pill to swallow. I think if an ideal world. We win the lottery in 2015. We improve and get one of Tkachuk or McAvoy in 2016. We probably have a more balanced team. But yeah there’s nothing you can do. Those were the BAP. But the key quality of being a winner/high compete was missing. Its just shitty luck when it comes to draft

 

[34]

Shanahan

 

[Mess]

Kyle Dubas’ dirty dozen 12 worst moves during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs
=========================================================================

1). Letting Zach Hyman walk as UFA, suggesting $5 mil AAV was too rich for Leafs. Hyman coming off a 70 goal season (54 regular and Salary Cap record 16 playoff goals).

2). Signing Marner and Matthews to UFA $$ contract rates as RFA (under cost controllable situation), missing the 2nd contract team value deals and missing Leaf Cup compete window.

3). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot and a 2020 3rd-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a 2020 6th-round pick.

4). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Nick Foligno (CBJ) and Stefan Noesen (SJ) in a three-way trade in exchange for a 2021 1st-round pick, a 2021 4th-round pick and a 2022 4th-round pick

5). Toronto Maple Leafs protecting Justin Holl and Alex Kerfoot over 40 goal future scorer Jared McCann in the 2021 Seattle Kraken expansion draft

6.) Toronto Maple Leafs sign free agent John Tavares to a seven-year, $77M contract ($11M AAV) the highest UFA contract in a Salary Cap World blowing up Leafs internal Salary Cap.

7). Toronto Maple Leafs dumping Marleau with a 1st round who turned out to be Seth Jarvis, because of overspending on contracts preventing Leafs own RFA re-signings.

8) Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Matt Murray in trade coming with a long injury history and $15 mil owing on his 2 year contract for a 3rd and 7th round picks.

9). Toronto Maple Leafs sign free agent Petr Mrazek to a three-year, $11.4M contract ($3.8M AAV), then dealing away Leafs 1st round pick in 2022 to unload it.

10). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire 38 year old Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell from the Seattle Kraken in exchange for a 2022 2nd-round pick, a 2023 2nd-round pick, a 2024 3rd-round pick

11). Building a team in a Salary Cap World not from Goalie out, but rather 4 forwards eating up 1/2 a Salary Cap and it leading to NHL worst playoff results of all NHL teams.

12). Leafs GM scorced earth dealing away Leafs draft picks like candy years into the future to fuel his 1st round playoff loss imcompetence. No team has made less picks the past 3 years.

Honourable Mention:

- Allowing Frederik Andersen to walk in free agency to sign a two-year, $9M contract ($4.5M AAV) with the Carolina Hurricanes, leading to the endless poor goaltending decisons (Garret Sparks, Michael Hutchinson, Kasimir Kaskisuo, Jack Campbell, David Rittich, Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov).

- Toronto Maple Leaf hiring Soo Greyhound Sheldon Keefe with Zero NHL coaching experience and getting outcoaced against everyone and leading to imbarassing losses to CBJ and Montreal and others.

- Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Denis Malgin from the Florida Panthers in exchange for Mason Marchment.
- Toronto Maple Leafs sign UFA Nick Ritchie and then deal him away with Leafs 2025 2nd round pick to unload.

- etc, etc etc

Conclusion: Leaf BIGGEST Mistake

A Fortune 500 company hiring a Clueless inexperienced greenhorn GM, that had no clue what he was doing who destroyed the Leafs best opportunity and Cup competitive window during the prime years of AM, MM and WN.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

The democrats moved on from their core before the Leafs

 

[ITM]

1. Trading Rask
2. Trading for Kessel
3. Not retaining Lou while our core entered their second contracts

(Obviously point 2 may have driven a different need in point 3.)

 

[ULF_55]

Kyle Dubas’ dirty dozen 12 worst moves during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs
=========================================================================

1). Letting Zach Hyman walk as UFA, suggesting $5 mil AAV was too rich for Leafs. Hyman coming off a 70 goal season (54 regular and Salary Cap record 16 playoff goals).

2). Signing Marner and Matthews to UFA $$ contract rates as RFA (under cost controllable situation), missing the 2nd contract team value deals and missing Leaf Cup compete window.

3). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot and a 2020 3rd-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a 2020 6th-round pick.

4). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Nick Foligno (CBJ) and Stefan Noesen (SJ) in a three-way trade in exchange for a 2021 1st-round pick, a 2021 4th-round pick and a 2022 4th-round pick

5). Toronto Maple Leafs protecting Justin Holl and Alex Kerfoot over 40 goal future scorer Jared McCann in the 2021 Seattle Kraken expansion draft

6.) Toronto Maple Leafs sign free agent John Tavares to a seven-year, $77M contract ($11M AAV) the highest UFA contract in a Salary Cap World blowing up Leafs internal Salary Cap.

7). Toronto Maple Leafs dumping Marleau with a 1st round who turned out to be Seth Jarvis, because of overspending on contracts preventing Leafs own RFA re-signings.

8) Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Matt Murray in trade coming with a long injury history and $15 mil owing on his 2 year contract for a 3rd and 7th round picks.

9). Toronto Maple Leafs sign free agent Petr Mrazek to a three-year, $11.4M contract ($3.8M AAV), then dealing away Leafs 1st round pick in 2022 to unload it.

10). Toronto Maple Leafs acquire 38 year old Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell from the Seattle Kraken in exchange for a 2022 2nd-round pick, a 2023 2nd-round pick, a 2024 3rd-round pick

11). Building a team in a Salary Cap World not from Goalie out, but rather 4 forwards eating up 1/2 a Salary Cap and it leading to NHL worst playoff results of all NHL teams.

12). Leafs GM scorced earth dealing away Leafs draft picks like candy years into the future to fuel his 1st round playoff loss imcompetence. No team has made less picks the past 3 years.

Honourable Mention:

- Allowing Frederik Andersen to walk in free agency to sign a two-year, $9M contract ($4.5M AAV) with the Carolina Hurricanes, leading to the endless poor goaltending decisons (Garret Sparks, Michael Hutchinson, Kasimir Kaskisuo, Jack Campbell, David Rittich, Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov).

- Toronto Maple Leaf hiring Soo Greyhound Sheldon Keefe with Zero NHL coaching experience and getting outcoaced against everyone and leading to imbarassing losses to CBJ and Montreal and others.

- Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Denis Malgin from the Florida Panthers in exchange for Mason Marchment.
- Toronto Maple Leafs sign UFA Nick Ritchie and then deal him away with Leafs 2025 2nd round pick to unload.

- etc, etc etc

Conclusion: Leaf BIGGEST Mistake

A Fortune 500 company hiring a Clueless inexperienced greenhorn GM, that had no clue what he was doing who destroyed the Leafs best opportunity and Cup competitive window during the prime years of AM, MM and WN.