What Should the Blues do with ROR's next contract?

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I don’t know. In a pure on-ice hockey sense I think you have a point. I mean, I wouldn’t do it personally, but you still have a point. That said, this isn’t a video game. I won’t even get into the fact that ROR has a no trade clause.

You don’t trade Ryan O’Reilly. He means a lot to this franchise and I think he’s the type of guy that becomes a big part of the franchise well beyond his playing years. I really despised having Keith Tkachuk here for the twilight of his career, but it’s funny to think about how important bringing him in was to this franchise even two decades later and well after his playing career. He houses young players. He scouts for us. His kids are star NHL players and led a surge of local hockey talent that is making waves in the NHL now. By your own acknowledgment these star players might even prefer to come here.

His leadership and personality are great traits. He helped us win our first cup. He should end his career here, hopefully will decide to continue living here, and contribute to this franchise for many more years. If I’m the Blues I am happy to give him another fair market contract.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don’t know. In a pure on-ice hockey sense I think you have a point. I mean, I wouldn’t do it personally, but you still have a point. That said, this isn’t a video game. I won’t even get into the fact that ROR has a no trade clause.

You don’t trade Ryan O’Reilly. He means a lot to this franchise and I think he’s the type of guy that becomes a big part of the franchise well beyond his playing years. I really despised having Keith Tkachuk here for the twilight of his career, but it’s funny to think about how important bringing him in was to this franchise even two decades later and well after his playing career. He houses young players. He scouts for us. His kids are star NHL players and led a surge of local hockey talent that is making waves in the NHL now. By your own acknowledgment these star players might even prefer to come here.

His leadership and personality are great traits. He helped us win our first cup. He should end his career here, hopefully will decide to continue living here, and contribute to this franchise for many more years. If I’m the Blues I am happy to give him another fair market contract.

I don't get why this, or people wanting to say he has a NMC, keeps being brought up seeing how it's completely false. ROR does not, nor has he ever, had a Clause in his contract preventing a trade or movement. The only thing he has in his contract is a signing bonus.

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That being said I'm totally against a RoR trade.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I don't get why this, or people wanting to say he has a NMC, keeps being brought up seeing how it's completely false. ROR does not, nor has he ever, had a Clause in his contract preventing a trade or movement. The only thing he has in his contract is a signing bonus.

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St Louis Blues Contracts
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That being said I'm totally against a RoR trade.

I misremembered. Sorry about that and thanks for the correction. Good thing I didn’t use it in my argument!

 

[cmcalum]

Sorry guys but this is about the St. Louis Blues, not individual players. I will always admire ROR for helping us get our first cup, the same as I do Petro, however, its about getting the second, third cup. And you do that by trying to make your team better. With Keith working for the Blues I’m sure he knows if Matthew wants to return home and play in front of his family all year. My guess is he does. If so, you have to give Calgary something that makes it worth their while and I don’t want to trade Kyrou or Thomas. The only one that makes sense to me is ROR, since he doesn’t have a no trade contract, since he was traded to us on his current contract. Maybe there is a way to wait until he becomes a FA to come here but you will have to have a lot of money available to sign him long term. We already have a lot of long term contracts that aren’t movable. This was the only trade that makes sense to me.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I misremembered. Sorry about that and thanks for the correction. Good thing I didn’t use it in my argument!

Sorry, I came off as a jerk there.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Sorry, I came off as a jerk there.

All good

 

[Brian39]

I’d give ROR the Pavelski deal that DAL gave out (3x7 mil), and then trade Schenn before he goes on a decline. We’ll need that money to pay Kyrou and Thomas.

Pavelski signed that deal 10 days before his 35th birthday. A 3 year deal to ROR would expire a few months after his 35th birthday. If you want to give ROR a comparable deal in terms of age, you're talking about a 6 year deal. ROR has a noticeably better resume than Pavelski and will deserve a higher AAV than Pavelski got. 3x7 isn't a remotely realistic possibility. I would be extremely surprised if that is even 50% of what his next contract ends up being worth.

 

[Brian39]

This is one of the most atrocious takes I have ever seen on this forum.

Considering the amount of posters in here whose walkaway contract terms aren't even remotely close to his value, I think you are way too critical of the "trade him instead of letting him walk for nothing" take. I just re-read this thread. Not a single person has suggested being comfortable with an AAV over $8M (regardless of their proposed term). Not a single person has suggested being comfortable with a term of more than 5 years. Most of the proposals are for fewer dollars and fewer years. None of that is realistic. $8M x 5 years is below the market value of a 32 year old ROR-caliber center. I wrote a long post about how unrealistic these hopes are, so I'm not going to dedicate 5 more paragraphs to why these proposals are so unrealistic. Re-read my post on page 2 if you want, but the summary is that anything less than a raise on AAV over a 6+ year deal contract is well below his value (unless it is a massive AAV raise on a shorter term deal, but we don't have the space to offer that).

If we want ROR to be here beyond 2022/23, then we either need to make an offer substantially higher than the proposals in this thread or he needs to demonstrate pretty noticeable regression from his current level of play (which is already below the standard we got used to from him). Are you willing to give ROR a contract worth more than $50M? Unless we see a large drop off, he will get multiple such offers on the UFA market. Unless you are fully comfortable with that, then you need to be ready to think about the organization's plan to move on from ROR.

I'm of the opinion that ROR is important enough to the team's next 5 years (including this year and next) that we should be trying to get a deal done around market value. If the team disagrees, then it would be absurd to not seriously try to move him this summer rather than letting him walk as a UFA.

 

[Celtic Note]

Considering the amount of posters in here whose walkaway contract terms aren't even remotely close to his value, I think you are way too critical of the "trade him instead of letting him walk for nothing" take. I just re-read this thread. Not a single person has suggested being comfortable with an AAV over $8M (regardless of their proposed term). Not a single person has suggested being comfortable with a term of more than 5 years. Most of the proposals are for fewer dollars and fewer years. None of that is realistic. $8M x 5 years is below the market value of a 32 year old ROR-caliber center. I wrote a long post about how unrealistic these hopes are, so I'm not going to dedicate 5 more paragraphs to why these proposals are so unrealistic. Re-read my post on page 2 if you want, but the summary is that anything less than a raise on AAV over a 6+ year deal contract is well below his value (unless it is a massive AAV raise on a shorter term deal, but we don't have the space to offer that).

If we want ROR to be here beyond 2022/23, then we either need to make an offer substantially higher than the proposals in this thread or he needs to demonstrate pretty noticeable regression from his current level of play (which is already below the standard we got used to from him). Are you willing to give ROR a contract worth more than $50M? Unless we see a large drop off, he will get multiple such offers on the UFA market. Unless you are fully comfortable with that, then you need to be ready to think about the organization's plan to move on from ROR.

I'm of the opinion that ROR is important enough to the team's next 5 years (including this year and next) that we should be trying to get a deal done around market value. If the team disagrees, then it would be absurd to not seriously try to move him this summer rather than letting him walk as a UFA.

One question I keep asking myself is, “will signing older players to large contracts prevent us from signing our emerging stars in a few years?”. Is a considerable factor in my mind with all these long-term contracts.

 

[Brian39]

One question I keep asking myself is, “will signing older players to large contracts prevent us from signing our emerging stars in a few years?”. Is a considerable factor in my mind with all these long-term contracts.

It's a great question to ask.

The best time to ask that question would have been before giving Faulk, Krug, and Schenn a combined $19.5M and full NTCs through 2024/25. I don't want to discuss the value of these contracts because it has been done a ton on this forum. Whether they are good value or poor value isn't my point. My point is that those 3 are signed until they are 35, 36, and 36 with full trade protection until they are 33, 34, and 34 (the summer of 2025). I'm going to be very, very frustrated if the end-of-the-day outcome is that we can't give a 32 year old ROR market value because we gave market value deals to the above 3 players in their late 20s a few years earlier. ROR is the type of player that you plan your franchise around. The other 3 are not.

We need revenues to bounce back fast. In a perfect world, the HRR backlog would have hit 50/50 by the end of the 2022/23 season and caused a large cap increase just in time for ROR, Thomas, Kyrou and Barby to get raises. It appears that won't be the case and the cap increase is going to come the following summer. That means we might be in a position where we have 10-11 high paid guys and a ton of ELCs and cheap vets in 2023/24 before re-filling out all our depth the next summer. Assuming a $1M cap bump this summer and next, we are looking at about $38M to fill 15 roster spots in 2023/24. For argument's sake lets give $25M of that to ROR, Thomas and Kyrou. That leaves $13M to fill 12 spots around ROR, Thomas, Schenn, Kyrou, Buch, Saad, Faulk, Parayko, Krug, Scandella, and Binner. Realistically, that's a couple $2-$3M guys and then a lot of league minimum. You probably have to move a contract like Scandella to build a good team, but that core is still strong. If 2-3 of our existing prospects are legit NHL contributors by then, you are talking about a pretty damn good team. Assuming regression from Schenn/Saad you still have 4 top line caliber forwards, a couple middle 6ers and a decent top half of your D. I'll take a year of bare bones support to that core over losing a guy like ROR. Especially because we should be able to get a nice return for a couple guys who price themselves out (Barby, Perunovich, Mikkola, Brown, Husso, and Hofer are the leading candidates).

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

It's a great question to ask.

The best time to ask that question would have been before giving Faulk, Krug, and Schenn a combined $19.5M and full NTCs through 2024/25. I don't want to discuss the value of these contracts because it has been done a ton on this forum. Whether they are good value or poor value isn't my point. My point is that those 3 are signed until they are 35, 36, and 36 with full trade protection until they are 33, 34, and 34 (the summer of 2025). I'm going to be very, very frustrated if the end-of-the-day outcome is that we can't give a 32 year old ROR market value because we gave market value deals to the above 3 players in their late 20s a few years earlier. ROR is the type of player that you plan your franchise around. The other 3 are not.

We need revenues to bounce back fast. In a perfect world, the HRR backlog would have hit 50/50 by the end of the 2022/23 season and caused a large cap increase just in time for ROR, Thomas, Kyrou and Barby to get raises. It appears that won't be the case and the cap increase is going to come the following summer. That means we might be in a position where we have 10-11 high paid guys and a ton of ELCs and cheap vets in 2023/24 before re-filling out all our depth the next summer. Assuming a $1M cap bump this summer and next, we are looking at about $38M to fill 15 roster spots in 2023/24. For argument's sake lets give $25M of that to ROR, Thomas and Kyrou. That leaves $13M to fill 12 spots around ROR, Thomas, Schenn, Kyrou, Buch, Saad, Faulk, Parayko, Krug, Scandella, and Binner. Realistically, that's a couple $2-$3M guys and then a lot of league minimum. You probably have to move a contract like Scandella to build a good team, but that core is still strong. If 2-3 of our existing prospects are legit NHL contributors by then, you are talking about a pretty damn good team. Assuming regression from Schenn/Saad you still have 4 top line caliber forwards, a couple middle 6ers and a decent top half of your D. I'll take a year of bare bones support to that core over losing a guy like ROR. Especially because we should be able to get a nice return for a couple guys who price themselves out (Barby, Perunovich, Mikkola, Brown, Husso, and Hofer are the leading candidates).

Starting to question wisdom of Saad signing. I like it in value terms, but we are hard against cap. We likely aren't going to be able to resign Perron unless we deal $ elsewhere- Scandella is possible (but then we are even more questionable on D) and Tank being likely guys that could be dealt.

 

[BlueDream]

Starting to question wisdom of Saad signing. I like it in value terms, but we are hard against cap. We likely aren't going to be able to resign Perron unless we deal $ elsewhere- Scandella is possible (but then we are even more questionable on D) and Tank being likely guys that could be dealt.

Agreed. The Buch trade really transformed our team and he’s a huge piece that can fit on any line.

Saad on the other hand is kind of a “meh” player and in comparison to that, isn’t that exciting. I appreciate how he stands in front of the net and bangs in goals, but aside from that he doesn’t impress me that much. He’s certainly not bad, but he’s a guy we would be fine without. Especially if Brown is legit.

It will be interesting to see who the odd man out is because it feels like in the offseason, a top 6 forward has to go. Until Tarasenko rescinds his trade request, it may very well be him. But Perron will be a 34-year old UFA. To me, it feels like we are about to be deciding between Tarasenko and Perron and only keep one of them, even though I’d rather have both and dump Saad.

 

[cmcalum]

Perron will be a very difficult decision at the end of the season as well the resigning of ROR. We just can’t sign these guys to long term contracts until they are all in their mid 30’s. Since we already have Schenn, Parayko, Krug and Faulk with those contracts already and will have to pay to keep Kyrou and Thomas. If we do in a few years we will have an old team when it is clear that the league is moving a much faster style of play. For me Tarasenko is a much more important piece than Perron. Armstrong will be earning his money this off season. that’s for sure.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

So the player who is tied for second on the team for goals and is two back from the team lead is just "meh" I see. He's only paid 4.5 mil, combined for inflation he's being paid around the same %-wise has Perron did when he signed his contract. And in 2-3 years when the cap goes up substantially (like it is currently being predicted to) his cap isn't even going to be an issue

 

[BlueDream]

So the player who is tied for second on the team for goals and is two back from the team lead is just "meh" I see. He's only paid 4.5 mil, combined for inflation he's being paid around the same %-wise has Perron did when he signed his contract. And in 2-3 years when the cap goes up substantially (like it is currently being predicted to) his cap isn't even going to be an issue

Because half of those goals are on the powerplay. As I stated, he’s good at standing in front of the net there and banging home goals. Aside from that, how is he anything special? He has 3 assists and is still only on pace for around 40 points.

On this team, he is a worse player than ROR, Perron, Buchnevich, Thomas, Kyrou, Tarasenko and Schenn without a doubt. Barbashev is currently out producing him too, although he normally hasn’t in his career. So he is at best our 8th or 9th best forward which makes him a 3rd liner, making 4.5 mil. It’s a fine price for what he brings, but given our roster makeup, that’s money we could afford to shed.

 

[Brian39]

Because half of those goals are on the powerplay. As I stated, he’s good at standing in front of the net there and banging home goals. Aside from that, how is he anything special? He has 3 assists and is still only on pace for around 40 points.

On this team, he is a worse player than ROR, Perron, Buchnevich, Thomas, Kyrou, Tarasenko and Schenn without a doubt. Barbashev is currently out producing him too, although he normally hasn’t in his career. So he is at best our 8th or 9th best forward which makes him a 3rd liner, making 4.5 mil. It’s a fine price for what he brings, but given our roster makeup, that’s money we could afford to shed.

I think your heavily underselling his role/contributions. He's 5th on the team in even strength goals and his primary job at even strength has been defense. He has the highest D zone start rate of any top 9 forward and has the team's best takeaway to giveaway ratio by a mile.

Berube is asking him to be the defensive anchor of the top 9 and he's been pretty good in that role. He's also spending about a minute a night on the PK, is the team's best net front presence and is on pace for 30 goals. I've liked Brown's game so far, but he's not even close to making Saad expendable. A guy who can score 25+ goals in defensive deployment is pretty damn valuable.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Anyone who says Saad isn't worth the money we pay him is nuts. The man does the hardest thing there is to do in the league - score goals. I don't care if he does it from 50 feet or 5 feet away from the net, b/c he scores. If what he did were so easy, then everyone would have double digit goals. He's a bargin right now - maybe not to the level of Perron, but close.

 

[BlueDream]

Anyone who says Saad isn't worth the money we pay him is nuts. The man does the hardest thing there is to do in the league - score goals. I don't care if he does it from 50 feet or 5 feet away from the net, b/c he scores. If what he did were so easy, then everyone would have double digit goals. He's a bargin right now - maybe not to the level of Perron, but close.

Except that’s not what was said.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Because half of those goals are on the powerplay. As I stated, he’s good at standing in front of the net there and banging home goals. Aside from that, how is he anything special? He has 3 assists and is still only on pace for around 40 points.

On this team, he is a worse player than ROR, Perron, Buchnevich, Thomas, Kyrou, Tarasenko and Schenn without a doubt. Barbashev is currently out producing him too, although he normally hasn’t in his career. So he is at best our 8th or 9th best forward which makes him a 3rd liner, making 4.5 mil. It’s a fine price for what he brings, but given our roster makeup, that’s money we could afford to shed.

Well I'm with you. I never liked Saad and this season has been disappointing from my view. The guy scores, so kudos there. But when his xG%/60 5-on-5 puts him third worst on the team, only behind Sundqvist (who spent over half a year with injury) and Neighbours (a 19-year-old rookie who played only 9 games), then I think concern is definitely warranted. The guy hasn't been good defensively this year. And unlike Kyrou or Tarasenko, he isn't generating offense consistently enough to make up for his poor defense. And honestly, he's been a negative guy in almost every analytical category. Frankly, I think you said it best, as he's been quite "meh" (probably worse truthfully) from a holistic stand-point.

I don't even have to use analytics to say this either. I don't notice him period when he plays. It's more of a surprise he scores than an example of grit, or skill, or brilliance. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, but doing so when he's so ineffective in two-thirds of the ice, it's not a positive thing either.

Also, to whomever said Saad has been a bargain, please look up what that word means. The best one can argue would be that Saad is living up to his deal. Frankly, it would have to be a pretty damn amazing argument to suggest anything more than that.

 

[TurgPavs]

No way I am resigning ROR at 32 years old until I see if Nate Mac at 27 years old hits UFA Market the same summer.

 

[Brian39]

No way I am resigning ROR at 32 years old until I see if Nate Mac at 27 years old hits UFA Market the same summer.

That would be amazing, but I can't see it happening. They have been pretty open about how much they have been structuring their deals to make sure that they can fit a ludicrous cap hit for him. They only have 6 guys under contract beyond his current deal and that includes Makar and Girard locked up at a combined $14M. EJ's $6M comes off the books that summer as does Compher's $3.5M.

My most knowledgeable Avs-fan-friend feels confident that they can and will make anything work under a flat cap so long as the AAV is below $15M. Looking at their cap structure, I think he is right. I don't think it will take that much, but I think that they are prepared and willing to do it if needed. At that point, the Avs would be offering more total dollars than he'd get on a 7 year deal at max AAV. They are a good team and Denver is a great place to live when you have money. Even if they can't get out of the 2nd round by then, I don't see how he'd look around and think that anywhere else gives him a much better chance to win.

He'd look amazing in blue though.

 

[Stealth JD]

The time is now upon us...Armstrong could announce an extension of ROR at any time. What's the line in the sand for a 30-something guy who isn't fleet of foot? I can see the argument for letting Perron go if the belief is that the league is trending younger and faster and it's unwise to extend guys who are exiting their prime. But much of that argument would extend to #90 as well, so does one non-signing lead to another?

Granted, a Selke-center is much more valuable than a scoring winger/PP-specialist, but the priority was clearly on Thomas. The Blues don't have much center-depth (at least with top-6 skill), so maybe Armstrong has no choice than to bring back ROR at whatever number it needs to be. But if a deal isn't reached in the next month or two, is there any reason to believe one will get done?

So...what's your BAFO to ROR if you're the Blues?

Mine - 5 yrs x $6.X/yr. Malkin is older but a bit more decorated and took 4 x $6.1. Giroux just got 3x$6.5M. I don't see the Blues breaking the bank to keep ROR after they just did Perron as dirty as they did.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

It really all depends on what they decide to do with Kyrou, RoR's asking price, and if they want to bring in Tkachuk.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

The time is now upon us...Armstrong could announce an extension of ROR at any time. What's the line in the sand for a 30-something guy who isn't fleet of foot? I can see the argument for letting Perron go if the belief is that the league is trending younger and faster and it's unwise to extend guys who are exiting their prime. But much of that argument would extend to #90 as well, so does one non-signing lead to another?

Granted, a Selke-center is much more valuable than a scoring winger/PP-specialist, but the priority was clearly on Thomas. The Blues don't have much center-depth (at least with top-6 skill), so maybe Armstrong has no choice than to bring back ROR at whatever number it needs to be. But if a deal isn't reached in the next month or two, is there any reason to believe one will get done?

So...what's your BAFO to ROR if you're the Blues?

Mine - 5 yrs x $6.X/yr. Malkin is older but a bit more decorated and took 4 x $6.1. Giroux just got 3x$6.5M. I don't see the Blues breaking the bank to keep ROR after they just did Perron as dirty as they did.

I just had this conversation with a long-time Blues fan friend of mine this morning and I spit out the same numbers. O'Reilly is a guy I think you can safely offer term to despite his age. He's been incredibly durable and takes really good care of himself. He makes immense contributions off the traditional stat sheet.

I'd go 5/$6.5 AAV.

 

[WeWentBlues]

He gone