What is the Oiler Achille’s Heel to a Championship

[mcdingdong]

To boil it down to one single position that, if upgraded, would help the team the most: an upgrade on Cody Ceci. A second top4 RD would do wonders for our defensive depth and (hopefully) help slot our remaining defenders appropriately re: ice time and player usage. He is in way over his head currently and is a drag on every partner.
As others have mentioned in general terms, team defense is of course an issue. Just reducing it down to a single change that I think would have the greatest net positive effect on the team.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Yep exactly, speaking to the immaturity. They have proven time and time again that as soon as they start to feel good about themselves they take the foot off the gas.

I was very, very hopeful that the lessons that should have been learned against Vegas focused them for the full 82, then they take the night off in night 1 of the season and implode on themselves in Game 2. Remains to be seen if that was enough of a wake up call, but I'm not optimistic based on the long track record of doing the opposite.

I don't put much stock into what happens during the regular season right now. As long as they make it they will have a chance. But every year they don't win it their window gets a little smaller. They make it past Vegas last year and there's no doubt in my mind they win it all.

But there's always something about this team that holds them back. People can point their fingers at the goaltending last year and yes it played a part, but their "best" defenseman lost his mind at a key moment and basically every single offensive weapon not named McDavid vanished into thin air. They played a shit game in a critical game 5 and after that there was no way they were winning the series.

Another thing to think about, in all but one playoff series in the McDavid era they've lost game 1. They constantly have to play catchup in series instead of just burying the opponent from the get go.

 

[Soundwave]

If we could have this defense somehow

Ekholm Larsson (2016)
Nurse Sekera (2016)
Kulak Bouchard

That would do the trick, but as is we're two guys short of this.

Bouchard is not a top 4 guy defensively right now. Offensively on a PP, sure, but that isn't the same thing as playing defense in your own zone. He got destroyed by Vegas in the playoffs defensively.

 

[Stud Muffin]

Lack of a Top Pair RHD who can play the defensive minutes while also smarting up Nurse.
Our Penalty Kill also stinks and doesn’t seem to get talked about enough.

I could say Goalies but there so random and over discussed imo

 

[Drivesaitl]

Other than adding an elite goalie (highly unlikely IMO), I think that we need a significant upgrade on Ceci for top 4RHD. Beyond that we need this year's Kostin for the 4th line and maybe a replacement for McLeod.

Vegas demonstrated it doesn't have to be an elite goalie. But Vegas also demonstrated what voodoo the position is and that the bullet approach is a viable approach to dealing with that. Still, they landed on Adin Hill by accident and fortune, and anybody could have had him. Vegas goalie coach was even saying start Brossoit. I was saying they should start Hill.

Presently in the goaltending file teams imo rely too much on counting numbers and boxcars and not actually watching goalies and picking out which traits can be useful. The hockey world has gone so hard in the direction of one type goalies that throwbacks like Adin Hill don't even get much consideration, even though they should. Hill goaltends not completely unlike Billy Smith would, or Ron Hextall would. He carves people around the crease, he's up on his feet a lot, and he's involved in plays. A lot of goalie coaches of today scream in fright at such a player. They can't control such a player, so they don't even want them. A deep dive rethink needs to go on regarding what goaltending styles can presently work.

Any team can find some rough cut diamonds out there if they know what they are looking for. Further to my bullet approach I would have a lot of goalies in the stable in development. As many as possible. This was the biggest Vegas lesson. Have a lot of goalies.

 

[K1984]

I don't put much stock into what happens during the regular season right now. As long as they make it they will have a chance. But every year they don't win it their window gets a little smaller. They make it past Vegas last year and there's no doubt in my mind they win it all.

But there's always something about this team that holds them back. People can point their fingers at the goaltending last year and yes it played a part, but their "best" defenseman lost his mind at a key moment and basically every single offensive weapon not named McDavid vanished into thin air. They played a shit game in a critical game 5 and after that there was no way they were winning the series.

Another thing to think about, in all but one playoff series in the McDavid era they've lost game 1. They constantly have to play catchup in series instead of just burying the opponent from the get go.

That's part of the feeling good about themselves phenomenon. Over the last two seasons they were red hot coming down the stretch, then laid an egg in Game 1. Then they win a series, feel good again, then lay an egg in Game 1. All summer they get consistently called a cup favorite by media of all stripes, then lay an egg in Game 1.

It seems borderline impossible for this group to get positive headlines and not find a way to f*** it all up.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yep exactly, speaking to the immaturity. They have proven time and time again that as soon as they start to feel good about themselves they take the foot off the gas.

I was very, very hopeful that the lessons that should have been learned against Vegas focused them for the full 82, then they take the night off in night 1 of the season and implode on themselves in Game 2. Remains to be seen if that was enough of a wake up call, but I'm not optimistic based on the long track record of doing the opposite.

Lets contrast something though. As comparison (and people have brought it up) the 80's Oilers had Fuhr, Moog in net when they were f***ing up and they were f***ing up a shitload of times. For instance we beat the vaunted Habs in the playoffs in 81. Although historians will point out the imaginative and brilliant forward play of the Oilers we won that series on the backs of constant outstanding saves the many times we broke down against a SC calibre Habs club. Conversely the Habs had Richard Sevigny in net. That series was ALL predicated on goaltending.

Indeed Fuhr and Moog circa Oilers are were the best goalies in the business at backstopping horrendous mistakes

Throughout history you can take cup winners and goaltending was so often a big part of it. It is for the finalists as well. You don't usually get to 4 series without goaltending rising up. Some case could be made for teams that had alltime Legend Defencemen. But aside from that you need the goaltending bigtime.

 

[K1984]

Lets contrast something though. As comparison (and people have brought it up) the 80's Oilers had Fuhr, Moog in net when they were f***ing up and they were f***ing up a shitload of times. For instance we beat the vaunted Habs in the playoffs in 81. Although historians will point out the imaginative and brilliant forward play of the Oilers we won that series on the backs of constant outstanding saves the many times we broke down against a SC calibre Habs club. Conversely the Habs had Richard Sevigny in net. That series was ALL predicated on goaltending.

Indeed Fuhr and Moog circa Oilers are were the best goalies in the business at backstopping horrendous mistakes

Throughout history you can take cup winners and goaltending was so often a big part of it. It is for the finalists as well. You don't usually get to 4 series without goaltending rising up. Some case could be made for teams that had alltime Legend Defencemen. But aside from that you need the goaltending bigtime.

Sure, but we don't have those goalies (at least as far as I can see now, maybe one of them gets hot at the right time).

Part of being a mature championship level group is commitment to play the style of game that fits your roster and makes up for any imperfections. Our goalies aren't Hall of Famers, but they are good enough if we play the right way in front of them. Instead not only do we not have Moog or Fuhr, we have a group that plays in front of them as if we do.

The Blackhawks won cups with some shaky goaltending at times, hell the Flyers made it to game 6 of a final with Michael Leighton in net. Difference is they played the right way every night and didn't have dramatic swings in effort/execution game to game and series to series.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Sure, but we don't have those goalies (at least as far as I can see now, maybe one of them gets hot at the right time).

Part of being a mature championship level group is commitment to play the style of game that fits your roster and makes up for any imperfections. Our goalies aren't Hall of Famers, but they are good enough if we play the right way in front of them. Instead not only do we not have Moog or Fuhr, we have a group that plays in front of them as if we do.

The Blackhawks won cups with some shaky goaltending at times, hell the Flyers made it to game 6 of a final with Michael Leighton in net. Difference is they played the right way every night and didn't have dramatic swings in effort/execution game to game and series to series.

The goalie we chose to use in the playoffs was not. Again, I mentioned DRai scored 4 goals in game 1 and we still lost. That should never happen. It appeared with the Oilers, and probably to the Oilers that no amount of run support was enough. Thats a heavy load to bare knowing you need a lot of goals to even be in a game.

The Oilers outplayed Vegas in most of the games and still lost. Vegas gave up more chances than we did. Adin Hill stood tall. Goaltending WAS the difference. It didn't have to be that way. As Mentioned Campbell was another potential path. Most teams losing games try the other goalie out. Or multiple.

 

[K1984]

The goalie we chose to use in the playoffs was not. Again, I mentioned DRai scored 4 goals in game 1 and we still lost. That should never happen. It appeared with the Oilers, and probably to the Oilers that no amount of run support was enough. Thats a heavy load to bare knowing you need a lot of goals to even be in a game.

The Oilers outplayed Vegas in most of the games and still lost. Vegas gave up more chances than we did. Adin Hill stood tall. Goaltending WAS the difference. It didn't have to be that way. As Mentioned Campbell was another potential path. Most teams losing games try the other goalie out. Or multiple.

Game 1 against Vegas was a sloppy circus of a game from the Oilers, regarless of the number of goals Drisaitl scored. He was on fire, but probably about the only player on the roster that showed up.

Goaltending in Game 6 doesn't matter as much if the team didn't decide to play river hockey in Game 1 and straight up no show in Game 3.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Game 1 against Vegas was a sloppy circus of a game from the Oilers, regarless of the number of goals Drisaitl scored. He was on fire, but probably about the only player on the roster that showed up.

Goaltending in Game 6 doesn't matter as much if the team didn't decide to play river hockey in Game 1 and straight up no show in Game 3.

Pretty sure Pavelski scored 4 goals in a game the same playoff year and they lost the game.

Too many passengers in the Vegas series. Nurse getting himself suspended in a crucial game 5 (again as it turns out he did the same thing last year against LA) didn't help.

 

[Gordy Elbows]

The Nurse-Ceci pairing. It murdered them in the Colorado series and the same in the Vegas series. Part of the reason why they're forced into playing a player like Ceci in that role is because of Nurse's salary but good management would find a way to upgrade on that player despite the cap restraints.

I get the "team defense" posts but even with solid team defense, a Nurse-Ceci pairing against top competition will never cut it.

This. Imagine having a Dman like Tanev playing there. Suddenly opposing forwards start peeling off to the boards on their rushes rather than setting up a shooting range in front of the crease.
In my view, an upgrade on Ceci could lead to better goalie numbers, more possession time, and strengthen the defensive system overall.
We’ve mentioned several concerns in this thread but I believe upgrading on Ceci has to be our first serious move.
P.S. imo this will help Nurse improve his game as well, with better support.

 

[Anarchism]

I want someone who is smart, can skate, make a decent outlet and be a rock defensively. Effectively a right hand Ekholm but a guy like Pesce could play that role. The problem is that there are not a lot or RHD that fit this mold that are both potentially available and who would fit the Oiler's cap structure. A guy like Brandon Carlo might be a decent option since he is signed at an affordable number but why does Boston move him??

So your saying between cost and availability the ideal partner is quite to extremely hard to get??

 

[K1984]

This. Imagine having a Dman like Tanev playing there. Suddenly opposing forwards start peeling off to the boards on their rushes rather than setting up a shooting range in front of the crease.
In my view, an upgrade on Ceci could lead to better goalie numbers, more possession time, and strengthen the defensive system overall.
We’ve mentioned several concerns in this thread but I believe upgrading on Ceci has to be our first serious move.
P.S. imo this will help Nurse improve his game as well, with better support.

Tanev would be a dream pickup for that role. It's just a god damn shame he's a Flame which complicates the matter.

 

[CupofOil]

Team depth. The Oilers outscored some problems last year but their depth vanished at inopportune times in the playoffs. The Oilers are very rarely going to limit their playoff opponents to less than 2 goals. An extra goal from the 3rd or 4th line would go a long way.

Sure, you need a goalie that can stop a puck but the playoffs are all about unexpected heroes. Other than McDavid and Draisatl, basically nobody stepped up last year and until that changes we won't win. McDrai going supernova has already proven it isn't enough, twice even.

The depth needs to pitch in more offense but it was the Draisaitl line/Nurse pairing that cost them the Vegas series. They got annihilated by the Eichel line. The bottom 6 actually treaded water in that series which is all you can ask of them, limited goals against.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The depth needs to pitch in more offense but it was the Draisaitl line/Nurse pairing that cost them the Vegas series. They got annihilated by the Eichel line. The bottom 6 actually treaded water in that series which is all you can ask of them, limited goals against.

Drai definitely wasn't the same after the incident that shall not be named and of course Nurse... well, I've said my piece on him already.

But it's not even like lines 3/4... The entire team basically shut down after game 4. McDavid was the only one scoring. Hyman, Kane, RNH... all ghosts.

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

This. Imagine having a Dman like Tanev playing there. Suddenly opposing forwards start peeling off to the boards on their rushes rather than setting up a shooting range in front of the crease.
In my view, an upgrade on Ceci could lead to better goalie numbers, more possession time, and strengthen the defensive system overall.
We’ve mentioned several concerns in this thread but I believe upgrading on Ceci has to be our first serious move.
P.S. imo this will help Nurse improve his game as well, with better support.

Completely agree. We need a RD that’s great in front of the net and along the boards. Someone like Larsson, doesn’t even have to be as good as Larsson just play that style decently.

That can cost you but we need it if we wanna win.

What shouldn’t really cost much is a couple PK specialists on the 4th line. RNH and Hyman are a decent pair but like I said earlier I wish we had a duo like Sheahan and Archibald again. Those guys absolutely do not cost a fortune to acquire.

You just know there’s both going to be brain dead penalties taken in the playoffs but also just insane calls from the refs. I wanna feel confident in the PK, frustrate the opposition killing their PPs and then roll out our nuclear PP and show them how it’s done.

if we’re sticking with the current goaltending we should give them the best chance to succeed. Can’t win a Cup if your defense makes you nervous constantly

 

[K1984]

Drai definitely wasn't the same after the incident that shall not be named and of course Nurse... well, I've said my piece on him already.

But it's not even like lines 3/4... The entire team basically shut down after game 4. McDavid was the only one scoring. Hyman, Kane, RNH... all ghosts.

Speaking about placing the blame squarely on goaltending - even with the poor goaltending performance, I still think we have a very good chance at winning the series if even two of those three weren't injured/massively underperforming. Having at least two of those three players on the second line (in combination with Yamamoto) is what caused it to get badly caved in Game 5 and 6.

 

[Stealth1616]

I think equal parts of the following:

1. Defence
2. Goaltending
3. Depth scoring

 

[Anarchism]

The depth needs to pitch in more offense but it was the Draisaitl line/Nurse pairing that cost them the Vegas series. They got annihilated by the Eichel line. The bottom 6 actually treaded water in that series which is all you can ask of them, limited goals against.

So this is obviously an entertainment business. Why are you bringing up actual problem areas when you have no appetite to make changes? Go ahead bang your head against the wall. Feels Good.

 

[brentashton]

I think equal parts of the following:

1. Defence
2. Goaltending
3. Depth scoring

That suggest there is much more wrong than right with this team to get to the SCF promised land. I don’t think I would carve things that deep although each have warts for sure.

Really, after this all you have is McDrai.

I think they can ride this goaltending if the 2 tenders play to potential. Depth scoring has always been iffy, but there are players in the bottom six that have shown they can score, it’s more of a consistency thing for those culprits.

But I agree that defence is THE Achilles heel for this edition of 23-24 SC contender. And after getting Ekhilm, Ken sat in his hands thinking that Broberg and/or VD would move in and move Ceci and Kulak to spots they are better suited for. That is or was a huge presumption. Maybe it will prove to be true yet this season. I kinda doubt it though.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Bad money management.

*at present* Nurse, Kane, and Campbell look like they're all overpaid by at least two million. That and the Neal buyout is about 8 million worth of dead cap.

 

[Aerchon]

Team defence

Yup.

Not sure how this isn't just THE issue. Even the organization has been harping on it finally this off-season.

As we can easily see in the first 3 games as well.

I don't see a solution either. It's our top guys that are often guiltiest. Don't see McDavid, Nurse, or Draisaitl improving enough to provide the play/leadership to improve the team enough in this way.

It's a case where I think we just have to accept our flawed players and hope they can improve enough to get over the hump and win a cup.

Goaltending is also a weakness but not as much as the above. Last game was a great example imo. The amount of grade A chances we gave up we could have lost 8 to 6 easily. Campbell stood on his head and let's face it, Colorado would have buried more of those chances than Nashville.

Eliminating those high danger scoring chances is far more important than the Goaltending itself.

 

[Oilslick941611]

This is brought on by a discussion being had on another thread “Are You Really Worried” (with @Beerfish).

But it provoked the question, what is the Oiler’s Achille’s Heal to a Stanley Cup win (and limit your response to on-ice positions. Owner/GM/Coach/Goalie coach references can all piss off.

Sorry there’s no Poll. I can fix my 8track from skipping and can change points, rotors and distributor caps but don’t know how to set up a poll. I called @Cloned but he’s out on a date with @5 Mins 4 Ftg daughter right now.

I think this a question that doesn't require discussion because the answer is the same its been for the last 3 years. Team defence and goaltending. The topic is so overdiscussed and overplayed, it's a dead horse at this point.

 

[Beerfish]

Goaltending and everything else is miles behind that Achilles heel.