He can prove convincingly that he's better than Kindl. So that sets the bottom of negotiations at $2.5 million. If he takes the Wings to arbitration he is guaranteed north of $3 million and skurred Kenneh Holland hates to go to arbitration.
But that is a RFA v UFA contract. You're not really able to compare the 2. What you should be looking at in a Kindl comparison is his 2nd contract which, IIRC, was 2.7M over 3 years.
As a defenceman if you aren't signing a longterm deal, ie: Voynov, Josi, you're going to sign a bridge contract that under cuts their true value, ie: Subban, MDZ. Even in the deals where the defenceman signed long term they still had a lower salary in the 1st 2 seasons so even if he does opt to sign a long term deal you'll see a lower salary in those 1st 2 seasons.
As for arbitration I didn't think players were able to get arbitration until after their 2nd contract but I could be wrong, this of course assuming that their 2nd contract ends when they are still a RFA.