Speculation: What (if anything) does Colorado do about their goaltending?

[nammerus]

No. Avs are in first place. Avs don’t need any kind of big roster move. They need a bottom pair guy that has some PK chops.

Their PK is clearly the weak link. Fix that by getting Jack Johnson off the ice and reducing EJs role on the PK.

if the Avs want to make any noise in the post season, they’ll need to play better team D and improve their PK. Bednar will need to change his system, sacrifice some goals and lower the opponents high danger chances.

The Avs aren’t perfect defensively, and tend to get hemmed in with heavy forechecking. But they are a top 3-5 defensive team. Blaming team D on Kuemper being a scrub is patently false.

 

[FreshFitted67]

The Avs aren’t perfect defensively, and tend to get hemmed in with heavy forechecking. But they are a top 3-5 defensive team. Blaming team D on Kuemper being a scrub is patently false.

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The avs are definitely a good team... especially at controlling play and playing most of the game in the opposing end... that's not the issue.

The issue is when the play IS in their end... ie when makar's at the end of his admittedly impressive gas tank after some mad-man individual end to end rush or the pk, the team goes into panic mode and misses assignments and fails to clear the net... that's why despite their tremendous ability to control play, outshoot and dominate their opponents, they sit 22nd in the league in GA per game and 30th in PK%...

 

[nammerus]

The avs are definitely a good team... especially at controlling play and playing most of the game in the opposing end... that's not the issue.

The issue is when the play IS in their end... ie when makar's at the end of his admittedly impressive gas tank after some mad-man individual end to end rush or the pk, the team goes into panic mode and misses assignments and fails to clear the net... that's why despite their tremendous ability to control play, outshoot and dominate their opponents, they sit 22nd in the league in GA per game and 30th in PK%...

You really have no idea what you’re talking about. Their terrible GA/PK is a function of their terrible goaltending (PK has personal and tactical issues as well).

See that number besides the Avs logo? That’s a bad number. That means they have terrible goaltending. It’s not really open to debate.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

The Avs aren’t perfect defensively, and tend to get hemmed in with heavy forechecking. But they are a top 3-5 defensive team. Blaming team D on Kuemper being a scrub is patently false.

This right here.

The Avs are defensively executing at or above last year just off the eye test, the difference is Gru was making the saves Kemps isn't in the regular season. I think seeing how Gru is doing in Seattle shows he wasn't the long term answer either, but he did his job for us during the season.

 

[FreshFitted67]

I really don't think we're in that much of a disagreement... Kuemper hasn't been playing up his abilities... So the goaltending definitely is a contributing factor. I just don't think it's the ONLY factor. I think positional sound mobile physical defense is also missing...

The difference is... I BELIEVE Kuemper and Francouz can provide adequate goaltending, as you've seen throughout this thread there are large sample sizes of Kuemper being an elite goalie.

I DON'T believe Jack Johnson, Ryan Murray, Compher and Jost are going to be able to provide positional sound strong defense.

So I guess the question we're debating is whether we should pursue a starting goalie or some steady roster players at the deadline... A starting goalie might be expensive... and if Kuemper is any example, he could have great numbers and then join the team and fall flat... Who knows? Ideally, I think it would be great if we could shore up both the team D and the goaltending... but how realistic is that?

We could trade for MAF, but since his contract is expiring, and so is Kuempers and Francouz's... we would have spent Timmons + 1st + cost of MAF just to have zero goaltenders heading into next season... I dunno, just saying I'm prepared to head into the postseason with Frankie and Kuemper if we could get a big strong mobile D and a bottom 6 forward with PK abilities.

 

[AslanRH]

I DON'T believe Jack Johnson, Ryan Murray, Compher and Jost are going to be able to provide positional sound strong defense.

Compher and Jost were fine last year.
I agree, Johnson, Murray, and Helm are definitely not cutting it yet as replacements for Bellemare and Graves though.

 

[Lemonlimey]

Before the season the only talking point about Kuemper was staying healthy. He hasn’t settled in yet, but let’s not move the goalposts after 30 games. The price to acquire him was steep, but look what’s happening to the team that came second in that trade sweeps with Arizona. And with Grubuaer in Seattle.

the real story about Avs goaltending is not having their 1b backup for two years. Just having Francouz healthy when Grubuaer went down in the bubble against Dallas could have led to any outcome. We had to win the Presidents Trophy game to end last season with Jonas Johansson in net!

 

[danteipp]

In the it will never happen IRL and only on the HF boards:

Isles send Varlamov ($5.0 mm through next season), Mayfield (signed next season for dirt cheap at $1.45 mm), return Colorado's second rounder in 2022 and retain $1.5 mm on Varly in 2023, for Kuemper (expiring UFA), Girard ($5.0 mm through 2026-27) and Colorado's first in 2023.

Colorado stabilizes its goaltending and adds size and a crease clearer in RHD Mayfield, who's best partner was Toews. Not that he will play with Toews often, but he is a familiar face and they trend well together, if needed. Colorado gets a pick in the first two rounds in 2022 to keep adding to the system.

The Isles add the LHD2 and puck-moving defenseman they desperately need, so they don't have to go the UFA route in the offseason, shed Varly's salary a year early in a $$$ push for Girard, and add a first in 2023 at the expense of a late 2022 second rounder.

Who says no?

 

[John Mandalorian]

In the it will never happen IRL and only on the HF boards:

Isles send Varlamov ($5.0 mm through next season), Mayfield (signed next season for dirt cheap at $1.45 mm), return Colorado's second rounder in 2022 and retain $1.5 mm on Varly in 2023, for Kuemper (expiring UFA), Girard ($5.0 mm through 2026-27) and Colorado's first in 2023.

Colorado stabilizes its goaltending and adds size and a crease clearer in RHD Mayfield, who's best partner was Toews. Not that he will play with Toews often, but he is a familiar face and they trend well together, if needed. Colorado gets a pick in the first two rounds in 2022 to keep adding to the system.

The Isles add the LHD2 and puck-moving defenseman they desperately need, so they don't have to go the UFA route in the offseason, shed Varly's salary a year early in a $$$ push for Girard, and add a first in 2023 at the expense of a late 2022 second rounder.

Who says no?

It’s an easy no. The Avs should not trade Girard, a 1st, and a 2nd for Mayfield and a marginal change in G.

It’s a preposterous proposal.

 

[McJedi]

The Avs aren’t perfect defensively, and tend to get hemmed in with heavy forechecking. But they are a top 3-5 defensive team. Blaming team D on Kuemper being a scrub is patently false.

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The Avs biggest issue is they hemorrhage far too many high danger rebounds. Teams throw the puck towards goal and crash for cheap ones. And with our defenders so poorly clearing the netfront. With guys like JTC and Bura having brutal D zone giveaways. With Mack never covering someone in the slot, the Avs give away bad and easy goals. Goalie won’t help here. This team lacks defensive concentration and consistency. They get beat for goals the same way all the time. Cheap loose change goals near the net is their biggest weakness. Avs don’t score enough of these easy goals either. Avs score pretty goals. Concede ugly ones. It’s a play-style issue.

 

[danteipp]

It’s an easy no. The Avs should not trade Girard, a 1st, and a 2nd for Mayfield and a marginal change in G.

It’s a preposterous proposal.

Well I assume it is preposterous to you, because you didn't read my post and the trade proposal correctly.

Colorado RECEIVES a 2022 second rounder back in return from the Isles, they don't send one, and they trade the Isles a 2023 first rounder, presumably a late 2023 first rounder.

Getting the second rounder to use this year, since they don't have a draft pick in the first two rounds and the perceived value in the Isles waiting another year to use their draft pick, helps offset the difference in the picks.

So the players involved are essentially Mayfield, Varlamov and $1.5 mm in salary retained by the Isles in 2023 (covering Mayfield in full for next season, allowing Colorado more upfront cap space to sign UFAs), for Girard, with Kuemper dumped on the Isles for salary relief.

With Sorokin ready to be the Isles No. 1 goalie, I am not even sure if the Isles need Kuemper back. Colorado can probably look to trade him elsewhere for a 3rd or 4th.

Mayfield is the exact type of physical RHD Colorado needs, and he is signed for next season so he is NOT a rental, and Varly is a clear upgrade over Kuemper.

While the Isles receive the finesse LHD they need in Girard, to pair with Dobson.

That is a very fair deal, especially if Colorado wants to address their deficiencies now, and have that physical defenseman and goalie locked in and signed for next year.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Well I assume it is preposterous to you, because you didn't read my post and the trade proposal correctly.

Colorado RECEIVES a 2022 second rounder back in return from the Isles, they don't send one, and they trade the Isles a 2023 first rounder, presumably a late 2023 first rounder.

Getting the second rounder to use this year, since they don't have a draft pick in the first two rounds and the perceived value in the Isles waiting another year to use their draft pick, helps offset the difference in the picks.

So the players involved are essentially Mayfield, Varlamov and $1.5 mm in salary retained by the Isles in 2023 (covering Mayfield in full for next season, allowing Colorado more upfront cap space to sign UFAs), for Girard, with Kuemper dumped on the Isles for salary relief.

With Sorokin ready to be the Isles No. 1 goalie, I am not even sure if the Isles need Kuemper back. Colorado can probably look to trade him elsewhere for a 3rd or 4th.

Mayfield is the exact type of physical RHD Colorado needs, and he is signed for next season so he is NOT a rental, and Varly is a clear upgrade over Kuemper.

While the Isles receive the finesse LHD they need in Girard, to pair with Dobson.

That is a very fair deal, especially if Colorado wants to address their deficiencies now, and have that physical defenseman and goalie locked in and signed for next year.

It doesn’t move the needle at all. Sorry. The draft picks aren’t terribly consequential to me if this is what’s involved. And if I’m going to focus on the draft picks it’s even worse.

 

[danteipp]

It doesn’t move the needle at all. Sorry. The draft picks aren’t terribly consequential to me if this is what’s involved. And if I’m going to focus on the draft picks it’s even worse.

So, you think Girard is netting more than:

- A material upgrade in goal. Varly has battled the best team in the NHL, Tampa, to almost a standstill the past two years, which Colorado's offense should be able to overcome, given the Isles offensive failings; and

- The physical RHD you are clearly missing, who is signed for this year AND next and might be able to be extended on a low-cost deal? A player who has been paired and excelled with Toews in the past, giving you something of a known commodity. Plus that player is essentially free for 2023 and will allow you more room to sign UFA players like Kadri or make other improvements?

Good luck getting more for Girard.

On edit: And you shed Girard's $5 mm AAV, which can also be used elsewhere for improvements. Mayfield might only take up $2.5-3 mm of that going forward, keeping Colorado's salary structure inline.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

In the it will never happen IRL and only on the HF boards:

Isles send Varlamov ($5.0 mm through next season), Mayfield (signed next season for dirt cheap at $1.45 mm), return Colorado's second rounder in 2022 and retain $1.5 mm on Varly in 2023, for Kuemper (expiring UFA), Girard ($5.0 mm through 2026-27) and Colorado's first in 2023.

Colorado stabilizes its goaltending and adds size and a crease clearer in RHD Mayfield, who's best partner was Toews. Not that he will play with Toews often, but he is a familiar face and they trend well together, if needed. Colorado gets a pick in the first two rounds in 2022 to keep adding to the system.

The Isles add the LHD2 and puck-moving defenseman they desperately need, so they don't have to go the UFA route in the offseason, shed Varly's salary a year early in a $$$ push for Girard, and add a first in 2023 at the expense of a late 2022 second rounder.

Who says no?

Colorado says no.... Is this a joke?


That's beyond terrible.

 

[danteipp]

Colorado says no.... Is this a joke?


That's beyond terrible.

Same reply as the other poster -

So, you think Girard is netting more than:

- A material upgrade in goal. Varly has battled the best team in the NHL, Tampa, to almost a standstill the past two years, which Colorado's offense should be able to overcome, given the Isles offensive failings; and

- The physical RHD you are clearly missing, who is signed for this year AND next and might be able to be extended on a low-cost deal? A player who has been paired and excelled with Toews in the past, giving you something of a known commodity. Plus that player is essentially free for 2023 and will allow you more room to sign UFA players like Kadri or make other improvements?

Good luck getting more for Girard.

On edit: And you shed Girard's $5 mm AAV, which can also be used elsewhere for improvements. Mayfield might only take up $2.5-3 mm of that going forward, keeping Colorado's salary structure inline.

 

[Avs44]

So, you think Girard is netting more than:

- A material upgrade in goal. Varly has battled the best team in the NHL, Tampa, to almost a standstill the past two years, which Colorado's offense should be able to overcome, given the Isles offensive failings; and

- The physical RHD you are clearly missing, who is signed for this year AND next and might be able to be extended on a low-cost deal? A player who has been paired and excelled with Toews in the past, giving you something of a known commodity. Plus that player is essentially free for 2023 and will allow you more room to sign UFA players like Kadri or make other improvements?

Good luck getting more for Girard.

On edit: And you shed Girard's $5 mm AAV, which can also be used elsewhere for improvements. Mayfield might only take up $2.5-3 mm of that going forward, keeping Colorado's salary structure inline.

Not even going to get into the rest of this crap, other than to say that Byram’s future is highly uncertain — and it seems likely he at least won’t play again this season. With that in mind, no, Girard isn’t being moved. The second pairing after this would be Jack Johnson - Mayfield. The Avs need a player to put with Girard. Robbing Peter to pay Paul makes zero sense.

 

[danteipp]

Not even going to get into the rest of this crap, other than to say that Byram’s future is highly uncertain — and it seems likely he at least won’t play again this season. With that in mind, no, Girard isn’t being moved. The second pairing after this would be Jack Johnson - Mayfield. The Avs need a player to put with Girard. Robbing Peter to pay Paul makes zero sense.

Well then, seems like you might be F'd come playoff time.

Because Colorado doesn't have a first (to trade for a player with term or who can be extended at a reasonable cost) or a second (for a pure rental) to trade this year.

Jack Johnson is a dumpster fire and shouldn't be in anyone's top-six defensemen.

Odds are there will either be a heavy price to pay in prospects or another early exit.

 

[John Mandalorian]

So, you think Girard is netting more than:

- A material upgrade in goal. Varly has battled the best team in the NHL, Tampa, to almost a standstill the past two years, which Colorado's offense should be able to overcome, given the Isles offensive failings; and

- The physical RHD you are clearly missing, who is signed for this year AND next and might be able to be extended on a low-cost deal? A player who has been paired and excelled with Toews in the past, giving you something of a known commodity. Plus that player is essentially free for 2023 and will allow you more room to sign UFA players like Kadri or make other improvements?

Good luck getting more for Girard.

On edit: And you shed Girard's $5 mm AAV, which can also be used elsewhere for improvements. Mayfield might only take up $2.5-3 mm of that going forward, keeping Colorado's salary structure inline.

So now it's exclusively about Girard? Didn't you just tell me that I didn't consider all of it and that its about a lot more than Girard?

I don't mind keeping Girard. I don't necessarily agree with you about what the Avs are missing.

 

[danteipp]

So now it's exclusively about Girard? Didn't you just tell me that I didn't consider all of it and that its about a lot more than Girard?

I don't mind keeping Girard. I don't necessarily agree with you about what the Avs are missing.

Please re-read my initial post, slowly.

It was a flip of draft picks, 2022 second from the Isles (Colorado's original draft pick) vs. the 2023 first from Colorado, which is essentially offsetting given the timeframe and depreciating assets.

It boils down to Girard as the key for the Isles = Mayfield, Varlamov and $1.5 mm in 2023 salary retained, as the prime pieces for Colorado. A free, physical RHD and a known commodity in goal for one more season.

The Isles don't care about Kuemper, they have Sorokin, who is better than Varly or Kuemper.

Keep Kuemper, trade him elsewhere, have the Isles take on his 2022 cap hit for ease, whatever. He will be a backup for the Isles this season and then either gone or a minimal backup in 2023, if he is even extended.

The 2022 second rounder is also an IMMEDIATE asset and probably nets you a pure rental to replace Girard for 2022.

That is the typical cost for a rental defenseman.

It buys you time to get Byram healthy for 2023, transition Justin Barron to play his offhand or sign a second-pairing LHD in free agency. Maybe you can steal Leddy from Detroit.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Same reply as the other poster -

So, you think Girard is netting more than:

- A material upgrade in goal. Varly has battled the best team in the NHL, Tampa, to almost a standstill the past two years, which Colorado's offense should be able to overcome, given the Isles offensive failings; and

- The physical RHD you are clearly missing, who is signed for this year AND next and might be able to be extended on a low-cost deal? A player who has been paired and excelled with Toews in the past, giving you something of a known commodity. Plus that player is essentially free for 2023 and will allow you more room to sign UFA players like Kadri or make other improvements?

Good luck getting more for Girard.

On edit: And you shed Girard's $5 mm AAV, which can also be used elsewhere for improvements. Mayfield might only take up $2.5-3 mm of that going forward, keeping Colorado's salary structure inline.

Varlamov is not an upgrade on Kuemper. They're both from the exact same mold of average starting goalies.


The difference in value between Mayfield and Girard is huge. Girard is signed for 5 more years at a steal of a contract. Mayfield has 1 year left on his deal before being a UFA, not to mention Girard is simply the better Dman of the two.


AND on top of all that you think Colorado is the team that should give up the 1st round pick


Its an embarrassing offer and the fact you continue to ship it as anything but, clearly shows where your bias lies on the the proposal. Completely one sided for the Islanders.

 

[danteipp]

Varlamov is not an upgrade on Kuemper. They're both from the exact same mold of average starting goalies.


The difference in value between Mayfield and Girard is huge. Girard is signed for 5 more years at a steal of a contract. Mayfield has 1 year left on his deal before being a UFA, not to mention Girard is simply the better Dman of the two.


AND on top of all that you think Colorado is the team that should give up the 1st round pick


Its an embarrassing offer and the fact you continue to ship it as anything but, clearly shows where your bias lies on the the proposal. Completely one sided for the Islanders.

Are you serious, or did you just don the rose-colored glasses and refuse to take them off?

Let's go to the cumulative stats on the goalies:

Varlamov: .917 SV% (2022, not counting tonight, where Varly dominated Philly in OT and the shootout), .916 SV% (Career, significantly more frontline games), .919 SV% (Playoffs), and 102.4 PS (since 2008)

vs.

Kuemper: .908 SV% (2022), .916 SV% (Career, significantly less games, many as a backup facing inferior opponents and pressure), .913 SV% (Playoffs), and 46.3 PS (since 2012)

If you think those are even close, you are delusional and/or need to get into rehab ASAP. Oh, and your guy's name is Darcy and he just got run over by a guy named Jordan.

Mayfield and Girard are indeed vastly different.

One is physical and a mountain of a man, has gone deep into the playoffs for several years, and is over $3.5 million in AAV cheaper.

The other is Girard, who weighs 170 lbs soaking wet with 10 lbs of buckshot in his pockets and, when you Google him, the first queries that come up are "What happened to Samuel Girard?", "How good is Samuel Girard?" and "How tall is Sam Girard?", lol.

Most average NHL players will eat an apple off the top of his head.

But, if you want to just look at fancy stats and spreadsheets and not see the underlying value, then you are in the Dubas, Chayka, etc. mold and will always fail - but look damn good doing it during the regular season, and sucker in a bevy of postseason bets, I guess.

I used to think Rags fans were the most delusional fans in hockey, but I might need to re-evaluate that now.

In the end, it looks like we will have to agree to disagree.

 

[Avaholic29]

Are you serious, or did you just don the rose-colored glasses and refuse to take them off?

Let's go to the cumulative stats on the goalies:

Varlamov: .917 SV% (2022, not counting tonight, where Varly dominated Philly in OT and the shootout), .916 SV% (Career, significantly more frontline games), .919 SV% (Playoffs), and 102.4 PS (since 2008)

vs.

Kuemper: .908 SV% (2022), .916 SV% (Career, significantly less games, many as a backup facing inferior opponents and pressure), .913 SV% (Playoffs), and 46.3 PS (since 2012)

If you think those are even close, you are delusional and/or need to get into rehab ASAP. Oh, and your guy's name is Darcy and he just got run over by a guy named Jordan.

Mayfield and Girard are indeed vastly different.

One is physical and a mountain of a man, has gone deep into the playoffs for several years, and is over $3.5 million in AAV cheaper.

The other is Girard, who weighs 170 lbs soaking wet with 10 lbs of buckshot in his pockets and, when you Google him, the first queries that come up are "What happened to Samuel Girard?", "How good is Samuel Girard?" and "How tall is Sam Girard?", lol.

Most average NHL players will eat an apple off the top of his head.

But, if you want to just look at fancy stats and spreadsheets and not see the underlying value, then you are in the Dubas, Chayka, etc. mold and will always fail - but look damn good doing it during the regular season, and sucker in a bevy of postseason bets, I guess.

I used to think Rags fans were the most delusional fans in hockey, but I might need to re-evaluate that now.

In the end, it looks like we will have to agree to disagree.

The isles are begging for what Girard brings lol, I’ve never seen such a dull offense in my life. Not hard to understand value in contracts, Girard holds much more value… Thanks for Toews by the way.

 

[Spilot23]

Well then, seems like you might be F'd come playoff time.

Because Colorado doesn't have a first (to trade for a player with term or who can be extended at a reasonable cost) or a second (for a pure rental) to trade this year.

Jack Johnson is a dumpster fire and shouldn't be in anyone's top-six defensemen.

Odds are there will either be a heavy price to pay in prospects or another early exit.

I don't get that conclusion while Mayfield would be in Colorado paired with JJ in the 2nd pairing does that also mean we would still be F'd in the playoffs? As Avs44 said we need Girard to pair with someone not trade him and have JJ in the 2nd pairing which honestly he isn't that bad as you make it sound. Every Avs fans hated that PTO but pretty sure they (including myself) are now fine having him in the 3rd pairing.

Girard gets to take some of the blame for the playoffs lost against Vegas but the top line also disappeared after the first two games and having your #2C suspended is a huge blow. Many reasons why we lost in the playoffs including Girard's play but if he's what makes us win or lose in the playoffs I guess we're F'd.

 

[keglu]

Are you serious, or did you just don the rose-colored glasses and refuse to take them off?

Let's go to the cumulative stats on the goalies:

Varlamov: .917 SV% (2022, not counting tonight, where Varly dominated Philly in OT and the shootout), .916 SV% (Career, significantly more frontline games), .919 SV% (Playoffs), and 102.4 PS (since 2008)

vs.

Kuemper: .908 SV% (2022), .916 SV% (Career, significantly less games, many as a backup facing inferior opponents and pressure), .913 SV% (Playoffs), and 46.3 PS (since 2012)

If you think those are even close, you are delusional and/or need to get into rehab ASAP. Oh, and your guy's name is Darcy and he just got run over by a guy named Jordan.

Mayfield and Girard are indeed vastly different.

One is physical and a mountain of a man, has gone deep into the playoffs for several years, and is over $3.5 million in AAV cheaper.

The other is Girard, who weighs 170 lbs soaking wet with 10 lbs of buckshot in his pockets and, when you Google him, the first queries that come up are "What happened to Samuel Girard?", "How good is Samuel Girard?" and "How tall is Sam Girard?", lol.

Most average NHL players will eat an apple off the top of his head.

But, if you want to just look at fancy stats and spreadsheets and not see the underlying value, then you are in the Dubas, Chayka, etc. mold and will always fail - but look damn good doing it during the regular season, and sucker in a bevy of postseason bets, I guess.

I used to think Rags fans were the most delusional fans in hockey, but I might need to re-evaluate that now.

In the end, it looks like we will have to agree to disagree.

Its strong statement from somenone who believes 1st round pick = 2rd pick in value and that 1 goalie is vastly superrior to another goalie with identical career SV%
But ill will glady trade you next year 2nd pick for NYI 1st round pick in 2024. They are 'basically offsetting given the timeframe and depreciating assets'.

 

[Anthony5967]

They call for Georgiev. I think it's clear by now that G is very good when he is playing consistently and stringing together starts. He will be going to a good team if Colorado is the team to make the move. Not as good as Shesterkin, but he is solid when he is playing consistently. When Shesterkin went down, he really got going.

Alexandar Georgiev 2021-22 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com