What happened to the offense?

[HoweHullOrr]

I think that's just Rantanen's ask, the number you start negotiations with. He'd probably be willing to sign for a bit less than that in the end. But yes, 10x6 is not remotely close to cutting it. Colorado would have signed him last summer if that number was in any way acceptable to Rantanen.

Supposedly he rejected something along a 11.5x8 year deal back then, and the reason things never got anywhere in negotiations is because Colorado doesn't want anyone to earn more than the 12.5m MacKinnon gets, while Rantanen wants more due to the cap being significantly higher now (as in: by summer). That is, of course, just speculation, but seeing how no new contract came and now they traded him elsewhere, it seems to be pretty likely to be true.

11.5M is not more than 12.5M, so, there was room to sign Rantanen.

I think Friedman discussed this last night. He said the Avs offered $11.75 m, but Rantanen was looking for more. The Avs didn’t want to pay him more than MacKinnons $12.5 m. Based on this info, it looks like Rantanen wanted more than the MacKinnon’s $12.5 m.

 

[aragorn]

Even as the offence has dried up & the Sens are dealing with a number of injuries to key players this team is still winning & are one win away from tying for 3rd place in the division. Hopefully the key players come back soon & the offence starts going just as the season is drawing to a close & they push for a playoffs spot.

 

[Xspyrit]

I predict

Marner stays in Toronto at 12.5-13M x 8, a bit of a home town discount.

Rantanen to Dallas for 12-12.5 x 7 as it’s a no tax state.

Matthews and MacKinnon contracts were signed 1 and 2 years ago respectively but Draisailt is very recent. Marner and Rantanen are Elite players but not borderline generational like the other 3, they should make comfortably below. That said, you're very close as 11.0 to 12.0 is in the ballpark with maybe a team that has no elite talent like that ready to "overpay" a little.

I would want Rantanen but signing him 8 years for 12 M$ would be extremely risky, like more than Murray's contract. Or the thought would be to go all in for the first 4-5 years then rebuild again

I figured that's what you meant, it just was so low it's not a realistic offer to even get involved. I think you're a little closer here, but if they go to market, some teams will throw caution to the wind and their AAV will get ridiculous. I do also think Draisaitl is a tier above, but he's only averaged .1 ppg over his career more than Rantanan and I think he'll be the most relevant comparable for both guys. The cap is going up so internal caps based on previous signings only works if guys play ball, which clearly Rantanan wouldn't. It's a fine thought for Colorado to say nobody above Mackinnon, but they'll be losing Makar too if they stick to that. I'll bet both Marner and Rantanan come in above 13 at max term, but could be wrong, especially if they don't make it to the open market I could see it in the 12 range.

We live in a world where some baseball players are going to be billionaires so of course, someone is going to throw ridiculous money at them, which is why it's not realistic that they sign with us in the first place and even less at their market value (never said it was realistic). So again, I repeat by copy/pasting : "If they want to have the highest AAV as possible, they will get it, of course. If they want to be on a contender, they might have to be reasonable (obviously, wouldn't be us). I said that is what I would sign them for, not the highest they would get. The importance of words."

Draisaitl is often regarded as the 2nd best player on the planet, maybe less now with Makar, MacKinnon and Kucherov giving him a run for his money. Drai is also a "late bloomer", he only became an elite scorer at 23 y/o so his first 4 seasons lowers his PPG a bit. Rantanen was already over PPG at 21 y/o.

So if you look only since 2018-19, Draisailt has the 3rd best PPG behind only McDavid and Kucherov and tied with MacKinnon at 1.44 PPG. Rantanen is 8th with 1.23 (Marner 7th with 1.24). Matthews also has 1.23 PPG but he has the 3rd best GPG in history so far (behind Bossy and Lemieux)

As talked in the post above, the other comparables (although from players a tier above) were recent signings, we already KNEW the cap was going up. It's very possible that Rantanen and Marner get 13+ as mentioned in this post from a desperate team ready to overpay but I think that will be shown to be a mistake, like it is for many players, like Elias Pettersson for example. But at the same time, if you have the cap space and don't have young players worth anywhere near that kind of money, maybe you should.

My god, why would you want no show Marner? Why would you want to get softer? Trade our two most physical players for tissue paper.

It's not really about Marner (as it's also about Rantanen in my post), its basically any Elite talent we could acquire. I don't care if he's soft to be honest, we need SKILL like crazy. Mitch Marner has the 5th best PPG in the NHL since 2021-22. My team isn't anywhere close to as good enough to snob that kind of talent.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We live in a world where some baseball players are going to be billionaires so of course, someone is going to throw ridiculous money at them, which is why it's not realistic that they sign with us in the first place and even less at their market value (never said it was realistic). So again, I repeat by copy/pasting : "If they want to have the highest AAV as possible, they will get it, of course. If they want to be on a contender, they might have to be reasonable (obviously, wouldn't be us). I said that is what I would sign them for, not the highest they would get. The importance of words."

Draisaitl is often regarded as the 2nd best player on the planet, maybe less now with Makar, MacKinnon and Kucherov giving him a run for his money. Drai is also a "late bloomer", he only became an elite scorer at 23 y/o so his first 4 seasons lowers his PPG a bit. Rantanen was already over PPG at 21 y/o.

So if you look only since 2018-19, Draisailt has the 3rd best PPG behind only McDavid and Kucherov and tied with MacKinnon at 1.44 PPG. Rantanen is 8th with 1.23 (Marner 7th with 1.24). Matthews also has 1.23 PPG but he has the 3rd best GPG in history so far (behind Bossy and Lemieux)

As talked in the post above, the other comparables (although from players a tier above) were recent signings, we already KNEW the cap was going up. It's very possible that Rantanen and Marner get 13+ as mentioned in this post from a desperate team ready to overpay but I think that will be shown to be a mistake, like it is for many players, like Elias Pettersson for example. But at the same time, if you have the cap space and don't have young players worth anywhere near that kind of money, maybe you should.

I respect your feedback here and don't necessarily disagree with it, I was just arguing with my co-worker on Friday that Draisaitl is in a tier above Rantanan, I just feel like it's gonna end up close to there. The haircut on it would be a million, max 2 imo, so I see 12 mil as the floor. Salaries in the NHL are gonna get stupid the next couple years with the stark cap increases. The discount to be on a contender may come in to play, but if that happens, I think it's re-signings in Toronto and Carolina more so than the open market. Could be wrong, but guess we'll have to wait and see either way.

No matter what, I think we agree it'll be irrelevant to the Senators since they won't be getting involved in that and wouldn't land them if they tried.

 

[Ice-Tray]

We’re playing strong D and winning games. That’s pretty cool in my books.

The offence will return, and I imagine that we’ll be looking to add some secondary scoring in the offseason, but in my opinion that’s easier to find than our best players finally playing solid team defence, and the group as a whole in the playoff picture at this stage of the season playing in a manner that gets wins in the playoffs.

I don’t see a situation where we need to blow it up by trading Brady, that’s dumb to me. We’re literally sitting in the best case scenario in terms of where we would all have hoped we’d be to start the season.

This team needs tweaks, now that we have a better sense of what we are, that’s it.

 

[GCK]

Other teams can score 3G on 20 or less shots consistently. If Brady, Drake and others pull their heads out their ass we can win consistently if we can rely on Ullmark and Forsberg/Levi being consistent behind a conservative defensive system.

It may happen. There are 2 schools of thought 1. It’s not in this teams DNA, 2. They are exhausted from a brutal schedule. We will find out after the ridiculous 4 Nations tournament

 

[Xspyrit]

We’re playing strong D and winning games. That’s pretty cool in my books.

The offence will return, and I imagine that we’ll be looking to add some secondary scoring in the offseason, but in my opinion that’s easier to find than our best players finally playing solid team defence, and the group as a whole in the playoff picture at this stage of the season playing in a manner that gets wins in the playoffs.

I don’t see a situation where we need to blow it up by trading Brady, that’s dumb to me. We’re literally sitting in the best case scenario in terms of where we would all have hoped we’d be to start the season.

This team needs tweaks, now that we have a better sense of what we are, that’s it.

I rarely read your posts but I guess I would have missed that little insult

What is dumb to me is to settle for leftovers. It is to think that we don't have to improve and that we're at the "best case scenario" being 1 game over 0.500 in the 8th season of the rebuild. It is to think that everything is fine when your captain and "face of the franchise" has ZERO points in his last 10 games, when the checking gets tighter, when the stakes are higher, when he is finally asked to play conscientious defense. What if he was overrated these years posting numbers while playing 1-way offensive hockey and now that he is on a playoffs team, it reveals his real scoring potential? It is also to not realizing that he could still decide to leave in the recent future and that we didn't benefit of his peak value window when it was still time?

But hey it's dumb to think there's any problem with all this. The Ottawa Senators are way past the "everything is perfect, no reason to worry, they should get a pass on everything"

It's not personal against Brady but :

- No way you trade Stutzle
- Giroux is too old and UFA, could be traded as a rental
- Norris is not worth anything due to his AAV
- Batherson has value due to his contract but his stats are way down since he plays defense too and we actually NEED his contract
- If it allows you to move Norris contract without paying, you have to consider moving Tkachuk if the whole forward group needs a shakeup

One thing for sure, something has to give as we can't afford to be one of the worst offenses in the league. It would be the exact opposite as being one of the worst defenses for years.

 

[bicboi64]

What is dumb to me is to settle for leftovers. It is to think that we don't have to improve and that we're at the "best case scenario" being 1 game over 0.500 in the 8th season of the rebuild. It is to think that everything is fine when your captain and "face of the franchise" has ZERO points in his last 10 games, when the checking gets tighter, when the stakes are higher, when he is finally asked to play conscientious defense. What if he was overrated these years posting numbers while playing 1-way offensive hockey and now that he is on a playoffs team, it reveals his real scoring potential? It is also to not realizing that he could still decide to leave in the recent future and that we didn't benefit of his peak value window when it was still time?

Honestly mate, the rest of our top 6 could go 0.5ppg for the rest of the season and I'll be fine as long as they win. We don't have the assets to make big trades or the franchise location to attract good FAs. If the team can be successful at grinding out wins while playing tight D, I'll take it as long as it leads to playoff success.

I just want wins, don't care how they happen. Yes I want our players to score at a pace worth their cap hit, but if they're below that and winning idgaf. If any player expresses wanting out because they can't buy into us winning this way, I hope Staios ships him asap

 

[Xspyrit]

Honestly mate, the rest of our top 6 could go 0.5ppg for the rest of the season and I'll be fine as long as they win. We don't have the assets to make big trades or the franchise location to attract good FAs. If the team can be successful at grinding out wins while playing tight D, I'll take it as long as it leads to playoff success.

I just want wins, don't care how they happen. Yes I want our players to score at a pace worth their cap hit, but if they're below that and winning idgaf. If any player expresses wanting out because they can't buy into us winning this way, I hope Staios ships him asap

Yeah but I don't see it as sustainable. What has been our goalies SV% lately? How long are we going to outplay our expected goals against?

Right now, our whole season hope hinges on that 6 wins sequence just before Christmas. We have been 7-7-2 since December 22nd despite all the "winning" people are talking about.

We're seriously not that far from the perfect recipe but our top guys and the depth are just not productive enough. We don't need them to score 4 goals per game but we literally have the LEAST goals scored in the whole league since November 1st, almost 3 months.

All that said, you're right, I want the team to be improved but there's very little margin with the cap and we barely have any assets. I just wish we could make a Carrier type acquisition but for the offense.

 

[bicboi64]

Yeah but I don't see it as sustainable. What has been our goalies SV% lately? How long are we going to outplay our expected goals against?

Right now, our whole season hope hinges on that 6 wins sequence just before Christmas. We have been 7-7-2 since December 22nd despite all the "winning" people are talking about.

We're seriously not that far from the perfect recipe but our top guys and the depth are just not productive enough. We don't need them to score 4 goals per game but we literally have the LEAST goals scored in the whole league since November 1st, almost 3 months.

All that said, you're right, I want the team to be improved but there's very little margin with the cap and we barely have any assets. I just wish we could make a Carrier type acquisition but for the offense.

100% agreed. I don't think Stu, Brady, Bath, and Chabot are the kind of guys to sustain this type of grindy shut down hockey. Norris, Sandy and Greig maybe but given how bad at asset situation is, its the best case we can hope for today in January 2025. We don't have depth, no elc pipeline pool, and will lose a first rounder in the next two years.

If the guys can just commit to this type of winning hockey for a few more months we might just have a good season for once and maybe attract a decent FA or two in the off season and start having some depth. We could move Brady or whomever else, but that risks giving up this season which my impatient ass doesn't want to do lol

 

[Xspyrit]

100% agreed. I don't think Stu, Brady, Bath, and Chabot are the kind of guys to sustain this type of grindy shut down hockey. Norris, Sandy and Greig maybe but given how bad at asset situation is, its the best case we can hope for today in January 2025. We don't have depth, no elc pipeline pool, and will lose a first rounder in the next two years.

If the guys can just commit to this type of winning hockey for a few more months we might just have a good season for once and maybe attract a decent FA or two in the off season and start having some depth. We could move Brady or whomever else, but that risks giving up this season which my impatient ass doesn't want to do lol

I honestly have no idea what Staios can and should do, he's been put in a very tough situation with the incredible Dorion ineptitude. He already fixed the Korpisalo and Chychrun situation (even if we lost in terms of value overall), it was impossible to make it all good in one off-season. Curious to see what he does next summer.

 

[MiscBrah]

My view is they want to make the playoffs at all costs to give the impression that new ownership is turning things around, get some cash in the door for next season, and use that as a springboard for the downtown arena and further development. I don't think they care how they get there. It's far from ideal, but there are 32 games left, and we're in the mix. I do think the offense will turn around a little bit, even if it's never going to be great this season.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I mean the same argument can be made that them scoring far below their xGF isn't going to last. They clearly have the talent to get at least even in the future.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah but I don't see it as sustainable. What has been our goalies SV% lately? How long are we going to outplay our expected goals against?

Right now, our whole season hope hinges on that 6 wins sequence just before Christmas. We have been 7-7-2 since December 22nd despite all the "winning" people are talking about.

We're seriously not that far from the perfect recipe but our top guys and the depth are just not productive enough. We don't need them to score 4 goals per game but we literally have the LEAST goals scored in the whole league since November 1st, almost 3 months.

All that said, you're right, I want the team to be improved but there's very little margin with the cap and we barely have any assets. I just wish we could make a Carrier type acquisition but for the offense.

Our xGA since Nov 1st is almost perfectly in line with our actual GA 5v5 since 1 Nov,

Our PDO is 2nd worst 5v5 in the league during that stretch, if anything the expectation should be a move towards a PDO of 1000, which would benefit the team, contrary to your suggestion, what isn't sustainable isn't our sv%, it's our low sh%.

 

[jbeck5]

Was my post not clear? I said "money would come back", meaning it wouldn't be just for picks and prospects... (I'll throw a proposal for the purpose of the lineup below)

I also said "we'd need to have a plan to acquire some offensive talent", meaning that you don't trade them if you're not acquiring worthy replacements.

If by trading Tkachuk and Norris, I end up with Mitch Marner and Sam Bennett, I'd do it (just for fun because it won't happen)

Tkachuk + Norris for Lafreniere + 2nd + 3rd (Rangers take on Norris contract so the return for Brady is reduced)

I love Chuck Norris but I think the forward group below would be quite efficient (would have to make Perron's cap disappear too). In my scenario, I signed Marner 8 years x 11 M$. If he'd want more, then I wouldn't be able to afford him. And lol at your Boeser example, only Dorion would give him that kind of contract.

I think the defense and Goaltending is set with Yakemchuk coming up to eventually replace Jensen but the forward group needs a major revamp

Lafreniere - Stutzle - Batherson
Bennett - Pinto - Marner
Amadio - Greig - Giroux
Reinhardt - Ostapchuk - Cousins

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Jensen
Kleven - Matinpalo
JBD

Ullmark
Merilainen



If they want to have the highest AAV as possible, they will get it, of course. If they want to be on a contender, they might have to be reasonable (obviously, wouldn't be us). I said that is what I would sign them for, not the highest they would get. The importance of words.

However, I'd go 11 M$ for 8 years on Marner since he's younger and I expect him to age better than Rantanen, but anyone throwing 12 M$+ at Rantanen for the max term is going to regret it, 29 y/o next season.

Draisaitl is in a clear tier above. Matthews (13.25 AAV) and MacKinnon (12.6 AAV) too so they should be signed below that.

Did you trade Tkachuk twice in this dream and put both returns in the lineup?

I could have sworn you said something about trading Tkachuk for Marner and Bennett...and then trading Tkachuk and Norris for Lafreniere and picks...and then put Marner, Bennett, and Lafreniere in the lineup???

Why?