What happened to the offense?

[darude]

To quote the great former Raptors coach Sam Mitchell, Mo Shats!

But seriously these guys just need to get the puck on net, heck even near it, way more than they have been. Can't keep a team on their heels if they don't need to worry about you putting it on net.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Perron looks like he will fit great in this system. When healthy is like to see

Perron Stu Batherson - Bath and supports Stu on the rush and Perron in the Ozone

Tkachuk Norris Giroux - Grind line with Norris being the D presence with 2 wingers who are less than stellar defensively

Greig Pinto Amadio - Smart gritty

Gregor Ostapchuk Cousins - Speed, size and an asshat. Great 4th line mix

I agree. Eventually we will need to upgrade on Perron in a big way.

 

[Xspyrit]

Offense from back-end isn't the problem.

1. Style of play Green has us playing. Because Green has us playing a strong defensive game reliant on possession and stick work, we would need excellent puck possession and strong bodied players to be effective in this system. Who can think of the players on our roster/particularly top 6 who fit this category?

Pinto and perhaps Giroux. And they've been most productive.

Stutzle, Batherson, Norris arent that(Stutzle next best and he's been struggling with physical game while being strong defensively). Tkachuk has been terrible puck possession or he would be absolutely lights out in this system.

The guys we have are

1) New to this system and are learning how to thrive and adjust in it
2) Are not built for it

It's why we see guys like Cousins, Amadio and Greig look just as effective and are being constantly thrusted into top 6 positions.

2. Chemistry

Stutzle needs a quick and strong player to keep up with him and make space. Giroux and Gaudette aren't that. Tkachuk has been playing very poorly offensively and Batherson has shown signs but they need a counterpart.

Norris has struggled a lot and is still trying to find his footing. Also has struggled in puck possession and physical game + Tkachuk is only real top 6 LW we have and since he is off, no one else has been clicking with Norris. Giroux-Norris is too weak and needs a strong bodied RW but we don't have that.

I think we should/might have to trade Tkachuk and Norris. That's 16 M$ in cap space. Sure, money would come back but maybe an opportunity to get a lot of picks and prospects. For sure, we'd need to have a plan to acquire some offensive talent. Signing Rantanen or Marner would be great but depends how much/long though. I'd do 6 years x 10 M$ for each

Tkachuk Norris Giroux - Grind line with Norris being the D presence with 2 wingers who are less than stellar defensively

Giroux is still good defensively, he was our best 2-way forward 2 years ago. Sure he's not as good as the days he was getting Selke votes every season but he's not "less than stellar defensively"

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think we should/might have to trade Tkachuk and Norris. That's 16 M$ in cap space. Sure, money would come back but maybe an opportunity to get a lot of picks and prospects. For sure, we'd need to have a plan to acquire some offensive talent. Signing Rantanen or Marner would be great but depends how much/long though. I'd do 6 years x 10 M$ for each

That seems low. I thought the expectations are a Draisaitl type ~14mil contract at max term.

 

[Sanderson]

That seems low. I thought the expectations are a Draisaitl type ~14mil contract at max term.

I think that's just Rantanen's ask, the number you start negotiations with. He'd probably be willing to sign for a bit less than that in the end. But yes, 10x6 is not remotely close to cutting it. Colorado would have signed him last summer if that number was in any way acceptable to Rantanen.

Supposedly he rejected something along a 11.5x8 year deal back then, and the reason things never got anywhere in negotiations is because Colorado doesn't want anyone to earn more than the 12.5m MacKinnon gets, while Rantanen wants more due to the cap being significantly higher now (as in: by summer). That is, of course, just speculation, but seeing how no new contract came and now they traded him elsewhere, it seems to be pretty likely to be true.

 

[GCK]

I think we should/might have to trade Tkachuk and Norris. That's 16 M$ in cap space. Sure, money would come back but maybe an opportunity to get a lot of picks and prospects. For sure, we'd need to have a plan to acquire some offensive talent. Signing Rantanen or Marner would be great but depends how much/long though. I'd do 6 years x 10 M$ for each



Giroux is still good defensively, he was our best 2-way forward 2 years ago. Sure he's not as good as the days he was getting Selke votes every season but he's not "less than stellar defensively"

Trading Norris and Tkachuk for pick or prospects is like restarting the rebuild.

6 x 10M might get you Boeser, not even remotely close to Marner or Rantenen.

 

[otown]

Perimeter play becoming way too predictable for teams to defend. Not going to the net for the greasy goals and definitely not shooting enough. Easy peasy to detect from this arm chair!

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think that's just Rantanen's ask, the number you start negotiations with. He'd probably be willing to sign for a bit less than that in the end. But yes, 10x6 is not remotely close to cutting it. Colorado would have signed him last summer if that number was in any way acceptable to Rantanen.

Supposedly he rejected something along a 11.5x8 year deal back then, and the reason things never got anywhere in negotiations is because Colorado doesn't want anyone to earn more than the 12.5m MacKinnon gets, while Rantanen wants more due to the cap being significantly higher now (as in: by summer). That is, of course, just speculation, but seeing how no new contract came and now they traded him elsewhere, it seems to be pretty likely to be true.

I think he's got a pretty good argument to get close to or equal to Draisaitl. I think Drai is the better player, but Mikko is only .1 ppg lower pace over his career, solid playoff numbers, and the cap is skyrocketing. I'll be surprised if it lands anywhere below 13 with him being able to either walk to the open market in a few months, or leverage that with Carolina.

But ya, 6x10 isn't even in the ballpark for either Marner or Rantanan. Max term x 13-14 mil is what each gets imo.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Listening to the Team 1200 on Wednessay, or Thursday they had Johnson, or Corrado on and asked them about that and mentioned that the offense drop for the sens coincides with the drop in the powerplay.

At the start of the season the sens pp was absolute dynamite and when it cooled off, so did the offense.

If that helps make a bit of sense.

I think it was also mentioned the 5 on 5 offense is relatively the same from when the PP was hot to now

 

[SlapJack]

This team needs to build CONFIDENCE. They were on the right path in December, then Ullmark went down. Couple of bad games and then they're right back to questioning their ability.

There are tons of holes in the lineup from injury and lack of options, but other teams that have been good over time manage to stay competitive during these stretches. Like how does Boston get a shut out with Swayman, McAvoy, and Lindholm gone from the back end?

When Tkachuk, Stützle, and Batherson combined put up 10 pts in the last 10 games, that's brutal. Those guys should be close to PPG together. So then it shines a light on the rest of the scoring where some guys at the bottom already have issues, and they start squeezing their sticks tighter. Like Gaudette - he is not an NHL player. He can score goals but the factors that have always been there to limit that capability are accentuated, showing a guy that is just a bit too small and not fast enough to make plays at this level.

I think they will rebound once the dam breaks and they they'll be one of the better teams in the league after the 4 nations tourney. If they don't, I'll be writing off this season like I have the last 3. It's not worth wasting time to watch and reading about how shitty everybody is and how we should trade everybody.

 

[Cosmix]

Finishing is the problem (i.e. goals). So get the coaching staff to work on that! And go get a finisher, Mr. Staios!

 

[LiseL]

IMO it’s a combination of a bunch of things

1. I think the roster is still somewhat poorly constructed, though it’s better than last year. Chabot is phenomenal in transition, but he’s not great in the o-zone. What you need from the #2 dman to complement Sanderson is someone that can really drive offence from the backend and is a real shot threat. Chabot is, on a true contender, probably a #3 imo. Not elite offensively, not elite defensively, but as of this season solid all around. Hopefully Yak can be that eventually.

2. Our top 6 have no chemistry. We are missing a true play-driving star level player up front. Don’t know where we are gonna get that. I think our forwards are talented but when you’re missing a piece people end up being slotted incorrectly. Alternatively more speed on the wing and offensive depth would be a decent substitute for the time being.

3. Green knows we are not a high-end offensive team so he’s overcompensating by having us essentially playing above our heads defensively. I think this will level out as they adjust some of the roster over the years and as the players get more accustomed to the system.

4. Some of this recent stretch is probably just bad luck.

I would add the few of the forwards are clutch (opportunistic) which would explain their record when they don't score 1st. Once they get a decent lead, then it seems they're all scoring. A few of them will get a timely goal, but not often enough. I consider Cousins clutch but he doesn't get the ice-time or opportunities to take advantage of that. Norris & Stu can be clutch, just not consisently. Brady is clutch in O/T but not 5v5. They also play low IQ hockey when they really need a goal: overpassing, perimeter shots, missing the net, etc.

 

[Xspyrit]

Trading Norris and Tkachuk for pick or prospects is like restarting the rebuild.

6 x 10M might get you Boeser, not even remotely close to Marner or Rantenen.

Was my post not clear? I said "money would come back", meaning it wouldn't be just for picks and prospects... (I'll throw a proposal for the purpose of the lineup below)

I also said "we'd need to have a plan to acquire some offensive talent", meaning that you don't trade them if you're not acquiring worthy replacements.

If by trading Tkachuk and Norris, I end up with Mitch Marner and Sam Bennett, I'd do it (just for fun because it won't happen)

Tkachuk + Norris for Lafreniere + 2nd + 3rd (Rangers take on Norris contract so the return for Brady is reduced)

I love Chuck Norris but I think the forward group below would be quite efficient (would have to make Perron's cap disappear too). In my scenario, I signed Marner 8 years x 11 M$. If he'd want more, then I wouldn't be able to afford him. And lol at your Boeser example, only Dorion would give him that kind of contract.

I think the defense and Goaltending is set with Yakemchuk coming up to eventually replace Jensen but the forward group needs a major revamp

Lafreniere - Stutzle - Batherson
Bennett - Pinto - Marner
Amadio - Greig - Giroux
Reinhardt - Ostapchuk - Cousins

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Jensen
Kleven - Matinpalo
JBD

Ullmark
Merilainen

That seems low. I thought the expectations are a Draisaitl type ~14mil contract at max term.

If they want to have the highest AAV as possible, they will get it, of course. If they want to be on a contender, they might have to be reasonable (obviously, wouldn't be us). I said that is what I would sign them for, not the highest they would get. The importance of words.

However, I'd go 11 M$ for 8 years on Marner since he's younger and I expect him to age better than Rantanen, but anyone throwing 12 M$+ at Rantanen for the max term is going to regret it, 29 y/o next season.

Draisaitl is in a clear tier above. Matthews (13.25 AAV) and MacKinnon (12.6 AAV) too so they should be signed below that.

 

[LiseL]

Without Ullmark, this team protects their goaltenders at the expense of offense. I expect things to naturally open up offensively when he returns - the scorers will be able to exhale and play their games.

Coach Green tightened up their play around Leevi, as he's an AHL backup. To his credit, he's played well, although instances like the Washington game where he had a shutout through 60 show how much offense was sacrificed to maintain that defensive balance.

And with Forsy in goal, this roster plays like they're afraid to make mistakes. They are rigid and predictable, because they either have to score a touchdown, or put up a shutout to assure a win, and the shutout is more probable.

Mark my words. Ullmark's return will influence an uptick in scoring.

If they'll only play well offensively when Ullmark is in net (with his Vezina pedigree), then this team is still mentally fragile. Forsey has played well recently, so has Leevi. Focusing on D explains their play in the D zone, but not the O zone or the PP IMO.

 

[LiseL]

Listening to the Team 1200 on Wednessay, or Thursday they had Johnson, or Corrado on and asked them about that and mentioned that the offense drop for the sens coincides with the drop in the powerplay.

At the start of the season the sens pp was absolute dynamite and when it cooled off, so did the offense.

If that helps make a bit of sense.

I think it was also mentioned the 5 on 5 offense is relatively the same from when the PP was hot to now

Exactly. Their hot PP masked their low ES scoring. Now that the PP has gone stone cold, the roosters have come home to roost.

 

[Xspyrit]

Since December 22nd, 15 games, 6-7-2, 26th in P%

All Strengths

CF/60 : 11th
SF/60 : 23rd
SCF/60 : 23rd
HDCF/60 : 26th
xGF/60 : 26th
GF/60 : 32nd

Sure, they have private and more expensive advanced stats, but according to NaturalStatTrick, Sens haven't looked particularly dangerous these last 15 games, where the season has been slowly slipping away.