What do you think about the random factor in hockey?

[Machinehead]

Hockey is way more random than most people in this thread want to admit.

The notion that the playoffs are a large enough sample to eliminate it is contrary to reality. It's not that big of a sample.

The Rangers were +1 at 5v5 last year and they won 55 games. That's over a whole season. Their goaltending wasn't even that good. Between the 2020 and 2021 regular seasons, the Canadiens played 138 games and won 46 of them. They went to the Stanley Cup Final in between. Things happen for no reason.

That doesn't mean you can't enjoy chaos but the sport is way more chaotic than most of the others.

 

[Machinehead]

This is supposedly why soccer is the world's favorite sport. Any team can beat any other team based on luck. I like the luck factor in hockey in that it is enough that it mirrors my life, but not over-the-top like in soccer. I plan shit out in my life and then throw it at the net. Some deep planning ends up in the glove and some random shit I do ends up in the back of the goal, but overall over the course of a season my decisions shape the outcome.

The same teams win over and over again in soccer.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Four playoff series is about 20-25 games. More than enough to eliminate the type of randomness people would describe as luck or fluke.

In fact, in some ways, the playoffs are LESS random than the regular season: Each playoff series has precisely equal schedules for both teams, plus there's no OT/SO randomness to muck up the results. Two teams battling it out in a best of 7, with no gimmicks, is hockey at its least random, where the best team really does win.

So why doesn't the President Trophy winner win the Cup? How does an underdog go on a playoff run? Why do we get these surprises every season? In hockey's case, I'd say it happens when you add parity to the normal variability of human performance. Yes, obviously there's SOME variability, otherwise sports wouldn't exist. But hockey, more than most sports, has little separating the best from the worst teams. Even less separation between teams good enough to make the playoffs. Add the extra pressure and the head-to-head nature of a playoff series, and regular season numbers often go out the window.

By far and away the largest drivers of unexpected playoff outcomes are injury and “game management” (or whatever you want to call it when playoff officiating allows teams to obstruct and cheapshot their way to victory).

Of the major leagues, the NHL has the strongest and strangest addiction to changing the rules in the playoffs at the expense of the more talented players/teams. Inevitably the “growth process” of a Cup champion involves acquiring rats so they can play dirtier in the playoffs. It’s a weird dynamic and drives a lot of results in a manner that just doesn’t happen in soccer, basketball, etc.

 

[BLNY]

Is "randomness" the new Cinderella?

I think a "Cinderella team" can be a great story. Catching lightning in a bottle and going on a run is entertaining to all but the teams expected to have won and their fans.

 

[Golden_Jet]

By far and away the largest drivers of unexpected playoff outcomes are injury and “game management” (or whatever you want to call it when playoff officiating allows teams to obstruct and cheapshot their way to victory).

Of the major leagues, the NHL has the strongest and strangest addiction to changing the rules in the playoffs at the expense of the more talented players/teams. Inevitably the “growth process” of a Cup champion involves acquiring rats so they can play dirtier in the playoffs. It’s a weird dynamic and drives a lot of results in a manner that just doesn’t happen in soccer, basketball, etc.

More penalties called in playoffs per game than regular season

Let’s talk about penalties in the NHL playoffs | TSN

To say officiating has been under fire during the Stanley Cup Playoffs would be an understatement. Travis Yost takes a closer look at the numbers behind the calls.

www.tsn.ca

What I think is noticeable is that for the eighth year in a row, the playoffs are seeing a higher rate of penalties called than the regular season – contrary to some of the narratives you hear or read during playoff hockey:

 

[Lshap]

Then how does the 2006 Oilers have as many cup appearances as the Mcdavid Oilers.

Do you know how good the Wings Sharks and Ducks were in 2006? Do you really think the 2006 Oilers were the better team ? Not a chance

Detroit was consistently strong for most of that decade, but having the best aggregate record doesn't help you win an individual playoff series in one specific season. For that series, Edmonton was the better team.

Anaheim only became a top team when Pronger joined them. Interestingly, in 2006 he was on that Oilers team and was a key factor in their playoff run. San Jose also hit their peak later in the decade. The 2006 Oilers didn't have superstar forwards, but they had solid depth, plus Pronger, who was a cheat-code for the playoffs. That was enough for a good team like Edmonton to beat better regular-season Detroit and slightly better SJ and Anaheim in the playoffs.

That's my point – there's more parity than we like to believe between the good teams. That's why, every single season, the regular season standings don't reflect what happens in the playoffs.

 

[Lshap]

By far and away the largest drivers of unexpected playoff outcomes are injury and “game management” (or whatever you want to call it when playoff officiating allows teams to obstruct and cheapshot their way to victory).

Of the major leagues, the NHL has the strongest and strangest addiction to changing the rules in the playoffs at the expense of the more talented players/teams. Inevitably the “growth process” of a Cup champion involves acquiring rats so they can play dirtier in the playoffs. It’s a weird dynamic and drives a lot of results in a manner that just doesn’t happen in soccer, basketball, etc.

Yeah, injuries can play a big part in playoff success or failure. Admittedly, that's pretty random.

As for the management thing, it's true, the playoffs are a different kind of hockey. Another reason why regular season success doesn't translate directly into post-season success.

 

[AvroArrow]

I don't think it's randomness. To me, it's the hardest working team. You don't have to be the most skilled or talented, in the playoffs it's usually the team that plays harder and with more intensity that wins. That's probably my favorite aspect about hockey, it's unlike the NBA in that regard. The 8th seed always has a legitimate chance to win the Stanley Cup.

 

[tarheelhockey]

More penalties called in playoffs per game than regular season

Let’s talk about penalties in the NHL playoffs | TSN

To say officiating has been under fire during the Stanley Cup Playoffs would be an understatement. Travis Yost takes a closer look at the numbers behind the calls.

www.tsn.ca

What I think is noticeable is that for the eighth year in a row, the playoffs are seeing a higher rate of penalties called than the regular season – contrary to some of the narratives you hear or read during playoff hockey:

Right, but that “rise” in rate is almost entirely driven by roughing calls, which are typically offsetting penalties during after-whistle scrums which don’t result in power plays.

Why are there so many after-whistle scrums in the playoffs? Because teams beat the shit out of each other and don’t get penalized for it. So we’re talking about a 5% rise in meaningless penalty calls, in an environment with 100% more illegal things happening.

 

[BagHead]

More penalties called in playoffs per game than regular season

Let’s talk about penalties in the NHL playoffs | TSN

To say officiating has been under fire during the Stanley Cup Playoffs would be an understatement. Travis Yost takes a closer look at the numbers behind the calls.

www.tsn.ca

What I think is noticeable is that for the eighth year in a row, the playoffs are seeing a higher rate of penalties called than the regular season – contrary to some of the narratives you hear or read during playoff hockey:

I think both sides of this make sense, when you consider how players actually play in the playoffs, at least for the first round and in elimination games. Players play far more aggressive, amped up games in the playoffs, and as a result physicality is both more frequent and harder, both in terms of body checks and stick-work. Because the volume is so much higher, the logical conclusion to is that both more penalties are getting called, and more things that could be called penalties are getting missed/ignored.

You've got that stat for calls, and it's important, but it's also only half the story. I'd love to see stats on the other side of that story (number of missed calls going up or down), but how do you record missed calls? It can be pretty subjective, and I would bet that if you had three people doing their best to record it accurately, they'd each end up with different numbers. I don't think we'll ever have the stats for that.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

if anything, hockey requires more randomness. Every faceoff win should be subject to a game of rock-paper-scissors to determine possession of the puck.

 

[NyQuil]

NBA salaries - 1st team to last team: difference of ~$100M or roughly ~70% higher
MLB salaries - 1st team to last team: difference of ~$268M or roughly ~625% higher
NFL salaries - 1st team to last team: difference of ~$158M or roughly ~85% higher
NHL salaries - 1st team to last team: difference of ~$32M or roughly ~47% higher

 

[NVious]

The winners seem far from random, but more teams can make "runs," but those runs themselves seldom lead to anything apart from that run.

 

[Whileee]

I'm a NBA-guy and I'm interested in your opinion. Does the random factor reduce the enjoyment of watching NHL for you? It often happens that the best team does not win the championship beacuse of the high randomness in this sport.

I think that NHL hockey has the best level of scoring rates and randomness of any of the major sports. It makes it more exciting and unpredictable. About 1 in every 15 shots results in a goal, and 1 in 7 high-danger shot results in a goal. That creates constant anticipation, but also means that teams can't be successful over the medium to long term purely through luck.

 

[kingsholygrail]

I'm a NBA-guy and I'm interested in your opinion. Does the random factor reduce the enjoyment of watching NHL for you? It often happens that the best team does not win the championship beacuse of the high randomness in this sport.

I did the research a while back and the top 4 teams in either conference were Stanley Cup winners something like 95% of the time.

 

[Djp]

I'm a NBA-guy and I'm interested in your opinion. Does the random factor reduce the enjoyment of watching NHL for you? It often happens that the best team does not win the championship beacuse of the high randomness in this sport.

In the playoffs it's best if 7 so that minimizes randomness than it could in a one game decides it all.

In hockey, you can run into the hot goalie who can carry a team in a playoff run. You also can get hot/cold special teams which also determines who advances. P ln ayoff hockey the style us different than reg season

Th iui s comes out in the NCAA tournaments where one game winner take all for hockey. In baseball its L2 and you are out each round

The closest thing is in baseball with a dominant pitcher or if a team that has 2 aces. Prior world series had these where they may go 3-1 in their games (1,2,4,5) then both are used some in game 7.and team wins.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Right, but that “rise” in rate is almost entirely driven by roughing calls, which are typically offsetting penalties during after-whistle scrums which don’t result in power plays.

Is that an opinion, or you have something evidence to back that up with, as you were wrong on the last point.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Is that an opinion, or you have something evidence to back that up with, as you were wrong on the last point.

It’s right there in the link you posted.

But this also needs an extra layer of context, found here:



- During the regular season, tripping is the most commonly called penalty. During the playoffs, it remains commonly called, though at a slightly lower rate.
- During the regular season, hooking is the 2nd most commonly called penalty. It is called far less often during the playoffs, becoming one of the least called penalties.
- During the regular season, roughing is the 3rd most commonly called penalty. It is called far more often during the playoffs, rising to the same rate as tripping
- Cross-checking and slashing are also called far more often in the playoffs, but still remain af normative levels compared to penalties like interference and holding.
- Taking the roughing-slashing-crosschecking trio as a whole, it’s statistically obvious that the violence level goes way up in the playoffs — yet the overall number of penalties remains normative. Specifically, the extremely high prevalence of roughing calls offsets a decline in calls for other penalties, and it’s common knowledge that roughing calls are by far and away more likely to be offsetting penalties than any other.

To complicate matters further, the NHL has a well documented habit of decreasing the number of power plays awarded when it matters.

Power plays increase in the NHL playoffs, yes, but here’s why that feels deceptive

A look at data in recent years reveals that not all games are called equally.

www.nytimes.com

Power plays are handed out liberally early in the series, especially during blowouts, when “game management” dictates that the referees establish disciplinary control.

But when the game is tight, when it’s headed to OT, when it’s late in the series and penalties actually matter? Good luck getting that hooking call in Game 7 OT when someone handcuffs your star player during a rush. Good luck getting a non-offsetting roughing call when someone randomly jabs your 1D in the face to start a scrum. Statistically, the officials’ behavior is well documented as “you’re going to have to force me to call a penalty, and even if you do, I’ll make sure to even it up”.

So if you’re an underdog team and survive the first 4 games, it is by far and away in your best interest to push the limits by physically mauling the opposing superstar, interfering at key moments, and starting scrums after every whistle. The likelihood that this throws your opponent off their game and shortens their bench is a lot higher than the likelihood that it costs you a game on the PK.

In the big picture, that introduces an element of “randomness” in playoff upsets which traces directly back to a change in the way penalties are awarded. Smart teams take advantage of that as is documented in any number of Cup champions getting “tougher” and “grittier” to “be a playoff style team” as the final step in building their roster.