What do you think about the random factor in hockey?

[Machinehead]

Hockey is way more random than most people in this thread want to admit.

The notion that the playoffs are a large enough sample to eliminate it is contrary to reality. It's not that big of a sample.

The Rangers were +1 at 5v5 last year and they won 55 games. That's over a whole season. Their goaltending wasn't even that good. Between the 2020 and 2021 regular seasons, the Canadiens played 138 games and won 46 of them. They went to the Stanley Cup Final in between. Things happen for no reason.

That doesn't mean you can't enjoy chaos but the sport is way more chaotic than most of the others.

 

[Machinehead]

This is supposedly why soccer is the world's favorite sport. Any team can beat any other team based on luck. I like the luck factor in hockey in that it is enough that it mirrors my life, but not over-the-top like in soccer. I plan shit out in my life and then throw it at the net. Some deep planning ends up in the glove and some random shit I do ends up in the back of the goal, but overall over the course of a season my decisions shape the outcome.

The same teams win over and over again in soccer.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Four playoff series is about 20-25 games. More than enough to eliminate the type of randomness people would describe as luck or fluke.

In fact, in some ways, the playoffs are LESS random than the regular season: Each playoff series has precisely equal schedules for both teams, plus there's no OT/SO randomness to muck up the results. Two teams battling it out in a best of 7, with no gimmicks, is hockey at its least random, where the best team really does win.

So why doesn't the President Trophy winner win the Cup? How does an underdog go on a playoff run? Why do we get these surprises every season? In hockey's case, I'd say it happens when you add parity to the normal variability of human performance. Yes, obviously there's SOME variability, otherwise sports wouldn't exist. But hockey, more than most sports, has little separating the best from the worst teams. Even less separation between teams good enough to make the playoffs. Add the extra pressure and the head-to-head nature of a playoff series, and regular season numbers often go out the window.

By far and away the largest drivers of unexpected playoff outcomes are injury and “game management” (or whatever you want to call it when playoff officiating allows teams to obstruct and cheapshot their way to victory).

Of the major leagues, the NHL has the strongest and strangest addiction to changing the rules in the playoffs at the expense of the more talented players/teams. Inevitably the “growth process” of a Cup champion involves acquiring rats so they can play dirtier in the playoffs. It’s a weird dynamic and drives a lot of results in a manner that just doesn’t happen in soccer, basketball, etc.