Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller? | Part 2

[WetcoastOrca]

Ya it’s too bad that Benning didn’t listen to JUDD BRACKETT on this one. Apparently JUDD BRACKETT had negotiated a deal for Miller in exchange for a 3rd but Benning nixed the deal and offered a 1st because he’s so stupid

Agreed. Sometimes you just have to laugh at some of these so called rumours people come up with.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

I agree with your overall sentiments, but just because your opinion (not saying yours specifically) was founded on reasoning that made sense at the time doesn't mean that it wasn't based on assumptions and presumptions that have proven to be wrong. That's what I think those who continue to view this trade as a bad one don't get.

If I made an opinion that dropping out of Harvard to start your own company in your parents' garage is stupid, I would think that that opinion is founded on reasoning that would make sense to most people: Most startups fail while a Harvard education can set you up nicely for life. But I would be completely wrong about Bill Gates etc.

You can talk about pro scouting track record or Benning's personal motivations behind the trade, but how logical is it to place a greater significance in those personal subjective feelings than to look at what the player could potentially bring and has brought to the team. Miller's strengths based on his previous underlying numbers suggest that he helps address the team's underlying weakness from the previous season. There was obviously a spot alongside either Horvat or Petey. Miller was also 26 and coming off a down year when previously he had increased his offensive production over the previous 3 seasons. It's logical to consider him a bounceback candidate.

As for the 1st round pick and "timing" argument, it's looking more and more like that Benning's timing was spot on. The Canucks are rising at a time when previous power teams are struggling. So if your opinion of the trade was based on your presumption that the Canucks are likely to miss the playoffs and that 1st round pick would be a top 10 or even top 3 pick then that opinion is looking like it couldn't be more wrong.

I agree with your overall sentiments as well.
The Harvard analogy is a good one. It's basically the exception to the rule, right? So people believing that the rule is the proper approach (i.e. graduating from Harvard as opposed to dropping out) are more likely to be correct (just based on a numbers game), but in certain unique circumstances, it might make sense to drop out.

I don't think the main substance of the argument is subjective, though - which is that we were objectively a bottom 10 team for the last four years. As @Jyrki21 pointed out in his most recent post, the trade made more sense for a team closer to playoff contention than the Canucks were last season. Don't get me wrong - Miller is a fantastic player and fills a huge need on the team. To a certain extent, we lucked out this season with relatively few injuries (and none to the most fundamental positions of our top defencemen and goaltender), Hughes having an insane rookie season, all of our young players continuing to improve and develop (I did not see Virtanen having this type of season, but even Horvat is on pace for 10 more points than last season which is a surprisingly large improvement), and the Pacific/Western Conference being as bad as it is. Those are all HUGE factors in contributing to the success story of this season, we are incredibly fortunate.

 

[4Twenty]

The concern was never about Miller being bad, it was that the Canucks were not close enough to their window of contention to be making a very blatant “now” move like that. The fact that Miller’s trajectory, to date, was not point-per-game first-liner obviously doesn’t help matters.

Those concerns were neither “wrong” nor unfounded. It’s possible the Canucks have made a leap into contention right now. It’s also just not that likely though. And having a nice player for a few years is fun and all, but if he’s not in a position to contribute at the peak of whatever the next Cup window might be, it’s still more than fair to wonder whether it was worthwhile. Most teams make trades like this in an attempt to put them over the top, not to get into the playoffs.

No matter how good he is there is always going to be that question... and that is with the very generous assumption that pro scouting knew he was this good, in spite of limited evidence of that. It seems more likely he just happened to be available given TB’s situation, and they jumped.

You need to stop worrying about a window of contention and get on board with contending this year. Future plans are for the guys getting paid.

 

[Diamonddog01]

Nope. You’ve derailed the discussion yourself by devoting most of your argument to wild conspiracy theories and then tripling down when called out on it.
There is no need to be so defensive when you get called out for making stuff up. Just acknowledge your mistake and in the future learn to debate in good faith and don’t feel that it is a negative to admit the occasional mistake. Discussion boards work better when every one is able to do that.
Anyways I’ll leave you to it. You seem to have a need to always be right and to get the last word in rather than debating in good faith. I’ll keep that in the mind when deciding whether it’s worth responding in the future.

A wise decision, as many can attest to.

 

[Blue and Green]

Vegas was in a cap bind and still got a 2nd + 5th for Colin Miller who hasn't ever been a player on JT's level.

 

[Vancouver_2010]

I hate this trade when we made it and I still hate it today. This trade only makes sense when we are at the top and need a player like Miller to push us to the next level. If we made a similar trade in 2011, it would be a great trade. The timing just isn't right, this year we should tank and get a high draft pick. Instead we got a few years of prime Miller, and by the time we get competitive, he will be 30 and on a decline.

 

[DonnyNucker]

I hate this trade when we made it and I still hate it today. This trade only makes sense when we are at the top and need a player like Miller to push us to the next level. If we made a similar trade in 2011, it would be a great trade. The timing just isn't right, this year we should tank and get a high draft pick. Instead we got a few years of prime Miller, and by the time we get competitive, he will be 30 and on a decline.

Worst take of the day! Nice one. 4 years = a few. We won’t be competitive until 2024 lol. Astonishingly inept

 

[Grifter3511]

Worst take of the day! Nice one. 4 years = a few. We won’t be competitive until 2024 lol. Astonishingly inept

I'm curious what he considers 'competitive?' As of writing this we are 1st in our division and 9th in the entire league with games in hand on the two teams directly ahead of us in the standings. Is top 10 not considered competitive?

 

[canuckking1]

Bozo finally made Instagram. Seems the younger guys are influencing him off the ice like he is on the ice.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Was he a fictional character in the offseason, or just now?

I still dislike this trade overall. The 2nd worst team over a 4 year span traded a potentially unprotected 1st for a mid-aged 2nd line winger. Those are still the parameters to the transaction. A career pace from Miller doesn't change it.

Now, I know you're excited and you probably think dismissing all arguments to the contrary is logical, but it's not. People have a read on this deal, and they have a threshold to when this deal turns into a win. Many have described what that threshold is or what it should be. And they're not wrong to hold to it.

A big part of the perception to this deal will be the Canucks making the playoffs. Another part will be the pick's placement should they make it. No need to jump the gun to call it one way or other before that happens, so stay patient.

Last time I check, team records from past 4 years don’t affect current season

 

[thefutures]

Vegas was in a cap bind and still got a 2nd + 5th for Colin Miller who hasn't ever been a player on JT's level.

Don't forget gusev and subban. We chose the correct pro player to Target for once and I can't believe it lol.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Imagine thinking that history has no impact on the present or future.

It’s the NHL, it honestly doesn’t
Sharks went from contender to lottery team in one off season
Toronto went from last place to WC team in one off season
Should I continue?

 

[I am toxic]

A wise decision, as many can attest to.

Says Diamonddog01 as he slips in the last wor . . . oh wait, that's me

 

[canuckking1]

Don't forget gusev and subban. We chose the correct pro player to Target for once and I can't believe it lol.

Meh wouldn’t have minded Gusev. Now that he’s being deployed correctly he’s putting up points. Can’t forget what he was traded for but wasn’t it relatively cheap?

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Meh wouldn’t have minded Gusev. Now that he’s being deployed correctly he’s putting up points. Can’t forget what he was traded for but wasn’t it relatively cheap?

2nd+3rd for Gusev I believe?

no where near good

 

[thenextone]

Canucks need to contend now. With EP and Hughes on entry deals, they have to make the playoffs and make the most of it. Look at the Blackhawks - two windows: early while the team was on rookie contracts, then the team blew up and lost several players, then they retooled and had a second window. With Canucks luck we get one window at best, so we need to win now.

 

[Diamonddog01]

Don't forget gusev and subban. We chose the correct pro player to Target for once and I can't believe it lol.

Not just Miller, you could even say the same thing with Myers (another move I hated this past offseason). Signing Myers in free agency looks far better than trading for Subban or Barrie would have been.

 

[thefutures]

Not just Miller, you could even say the same thing with Myers (another move I hated this past offseason). Signing Myers in free agency looks far better than trading for Subban or Barrie would have been.

Yeah trading that 10th pick for Barrie would've been very bad in hindsight. I didn't include Myers cause I feel like we all knew he was coming. The Miller trade shocked me.

 

[PavelBure10]

People need to remember not all first rounders are sure things, there are a lot of busts "look at our drafting through the 90's".
This trade was a fantastic trade. I love having first rounders, but you don't get first line players like Miller for free. This trade was a easy sacrifice to make, to attempt to get to the playoffs a few years quicker. Miller has exceeded expectations, and has great chemistry with Pettersson. Supposedly he's a excellent leader in the locker room aswell.
It's a great trade people, get over the first rounder, not all first rounders are Pettersson's and Hughes, there's also the Polasek's, Herter's, Smith's and Gaunce's out there.

 

[F A N]

I agree with your overall sentiments as well.
The Harvard analogy is a good one. It's basically the exception to the rule, right? So people believing that the rule is the proper approach (i.e. graduating from Harvard as opposed to dropping out) are more likely to be correct (just based on a numbers game), but in certain unique circumstances, it might make sense to drop out.

I don't think the main substance of the argument is subjective, though - which is that we were objectively a bottom 10 team for the last four years. As @Jyrki21 pointed out in his most recent post, the trade made more sense for a team closer to playoff contention than the Canucks were last season. Don't get me wrong - Miller is a fantastic player and fills a huge need on the team. To a certain extent, we lucked out this season with relatively few injuries (and none to the most fundamental positions of our top defencemen and goaltender), Hughes having an insane rookie season, all of our young players continuing to improve and develop (I did not see Virtanen having this type of season, but even Horvat is on pace for 10 more points than last season which is a surprisingly large improvement), and the Pacific/Western Conference being as bad as it is. Those are all HUGE factors in contributing to the success story of this season, we are incredibly fortunate.

So are the Canucks not a playoff contender? Clearly if you thought that the team wasn't close to playoff contention you were wrong. So if you think the trade made more sense for a team closer to playoff contention then you naturally should be of the view that in hindsight that trade made a ton of sense?

As for your "incredibly fortunate" argument, your foresight or lack of foresight certainly impacts your evaluation of the trade at the time but just because you didn't foresee it doesn't mean that others couldn't. I'm not saying that you couldn't use the "well nobody saw it" argument to rationalize your thinking at the time, but at the same time what value does it bring? Nobody thought Eriksson would be this bad in his first 2 years here but here we are. You got to be good to be lucky and you got to be lucky to be good. There are always reasons why a team is successful and why a team is not.

 

[Spectrefire]

Canucks could've had JT Miller for like a 3rd round pick since he's a cap dump. Imagine having JT Miller + 1st round pick in these next two years. Could've and would've been a dynasty. Too bad Benning is at the helm.

Agreed, Benning also f***ed up by not getting McDavid from the Oilers for a 2nd round pick. They're in cap hell right now and could seriously use the cap space he's eating up.

 

[Fatass]

Agreed, Benning also ****ed up by not getting McDavid from the Oilers for a 2nd round pick. They're in cap hell right now and could seriously use the cap space he's eating up.

It’s the philosophy of building an elite core thru the draft vs speeding the build up by trading away firsts for 26 year old guys (Miller is clearly worth what we paid) to squeak us into the playoffs. Are Petey and Hughes enough elite guys to win a Cup? Miller is a really good player, but is he at the same level of Petey and Hughes? That first, if we don’t make the trade, is likely a lottery pick this coming draft. Getting another elite young guy to go with Petey and Hughes would greatly increase our chances of winning a cup. IMO.

 

[Vancouver_2010]

Worst take of the day! Nice one. 4 years = a few. We won’t be competitive until 2024 lol. Astonishingly inept

With Benning in charge? A few years is too generous.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Not just Miller, you could even say the same thing with Myers (another move I hated this past offseason). Signing Myers in free agency looks far better than trading for Subban or Barrie would have been.

Agree with Subban
Subban makes 9m til 2022, cant kill penalty, cant play defense and now cant even put up pts anymore
Myers makes 6m til 2024, which isnt ideal but he can still play defense and kill penalty, i would rather take him over Subban

Barrie is a one year rental as for now so depends on if we could have resign him to a fair deal or not

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

It’s the philosophy of building an elite core thru the draft vs speeding the build up by trading away firsts for 26 year old guys (Miller is clearly worth what we paid) to squeak us into the playoffs. Are Petey and Hughes enough elite guys to win a Cup? Miller is a really good player, but is he at the same level of Petey and Hughes? That first, if we don’t make the trade, is likely a lottery pick this coming draft. Getting another elite young guy to go with Petey and Hughes would greatly increase our chances of winning a cup. IMO.

This is a ridiculous take...First of all, if the Canucks were a lottery team this year, the best player available probably won't be making an impact for at least two years...(Horvat would be 27...and by that time he would probably be asking for a trade.).

Just sitting back, collecting 1st round picks, and sucking year after year is no guaranteed recipe for success...All that breeds is a 'losing environment' ..just ask the Sabres.