Confirmed with Link: Weekesbomb: Palat to NJ for five-year deal

[AfroThunder396]

And you could accomplish the same with a cheaper vet, on a shorter term deal, and not have the cap consequences when you want to pay Mercer/Luke/Holtz/Nemec/Severson/etc.

And then they would still have additional flexibility to upgrade the roster with a "good regular season player".

So you wanted another Tatar or Johnsson? If you're cheap with your checkbook then you're going to get a cheap player.

Who is this mysterious 25 year old top line player we should have signed for 3.5M?

 

[guitarguyvic]

I think it makes sense to spend big money on legit top line, elite guys. I'm not sure JG was that guy, because he's more of the same of what we already have with small finesse rush players. A guy like Paccioretty would have been a better fit and cost virtually nothing, as an alternative example.

If you look at how teams like Tampa and Colorado obtained their secondary, complimentary pieces that actually made a difference...it was mostly through trade or at worst shrewd signings. They seem to be able to recognize untapped secondary talent who are currently in or approaching their primes and they are willing to give up other pieces/picks to get it. And those complimentary pieces are truly complimentary - they don't take on any extra expectations or burdens because the cores of those teams are proven elite.

Do we truly have an elite core? And is our management team capable of finding secondary pieces that are diamonds in the rough? And are they willing to part ways with current pieces and/or picks to get them? I feel like the answers are "maybe but i'm not super confident, no, and who the hell knows because the answer to the previous question was no".

 

[Triumph]

Why do you have to be so goddamn condescending in every response? You think you have this all figured out down to a science and your opinions on players and the team is so much better informed than everyone else. Get off your high horse.

Because any time I try to explain why those moves failed or anything like that, you disappear from the discussion. This is how you want it - to just blindly assert negative stuff and not have to explain why things are different now that Hughes and Hischier are now 1Cs, and how that transforms every move the team makes. By the way, I'm not the person who asserted that the Devils f*** up all their free agent signings and then said 'Oh, I guess most of what I'm thinking of isn't actually free agent signings', so maybe I have a reason to think I am better informed.

There's plenty of reasons those acquisitions failed...a combination of age and being relied upon too heavily are the main factors that come to mind, combined with misplaced faith that they would maintain previous production/performance in spite of it. With this particular signing, age is again a factor, but perhaps more importantly so is the reliance...if you're convinced this core is good enough that someone like Palat will truly be a secondary piece and not be relied on as a top guy, then yeah all is good. But if you don't have complete faith in this core...well...

How do you add to the core? It's extremely challenging to do that. I think the best way is through the draft - you hope that a player like Mercer, who was a complementary piece last season, makes the jump in a few years to being a core player. Jesper Bratt did that this season. But when you just think that everything only stays the same or gets worse, so the core is going to be constant, then yes, you can be led to assume that the core doesn't have what it takes. I agree with you, actually, if the core is just Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, and Hamilton, yeah, this team is f***ed long-term.

 

[Guttersniped]

I said 'might' because of the uncertainty surrounding their RFAs

What is Bratt's extension going to look like? What if Ty Smith has a breakout season worthy of 6 or 7 million a year extension? What will Wood's next contract look like if he scores 30 this year? What if Blackwood returns to his pre-pandemic play? What if Mercer puts up 70 points this season, and will be looking for a Brady Tkachuk-like extension when he hits FA?

If Ty Smith had a breakout season that makes him worth 6-7m a year that’s a problem I would happily deal with because that means he’s probably a Norris finalist.

That’s not a problem I see coming though.

 

[bossram]

He fared extremely poorly in my goals stoppable percentage. I counted 15 stoppable and he allowed 44 for 34%.

Now, this was also not as bad/high of a percentage as any of the Devils goalies not named Bernier or Schmid (Schmid played an even smaller number of games) either. And there are times where goalies deviate in my percentage from their actual results. Korpisalo fares pretty well most years, despite being shit in every other metric. Same goes for John Gibson's last 3 years.

That said, Comrie only played 20 games and 16 starts. He was extremely sheltered in the ice time he was able to see. His .920% in 20 games/16 starts is great, but what does he do with more playing time than that? Does he maintain .920%? Especially on a team where Hellebuyck was a .911%? I don't think so. I mean, it's possible he could maintain it over this season, but is Comrie all the sudden a .920% goalie? His overall number of games played in the NHL is actually very limited, especially for how old he is. He's 17 months older than Blackwood is and had only played 9 NHL games/8 starts before this season, including the one game with us.

I completely agree on Blackwood being too big of a risk. I still lack a TON of confidence in our goalie situation and that's mostly due to Blackwood.

Vanecek was a good add, but I don't think he's good enough to absorb the blow of Blackwood being anywhere near as bad as he's been over his last 55 games. And I'm highly skeptical that a healthy Blackwood isn't trying to stay above .900 and struggling to maintain .905%, rather than the injured Blackwood struggling to stay above .890%.

I'm not sure how much credit to give your proprietary "stoppable goals" metric because...well...we don't really know what it is.

But looking at MP, which is the only public analytics site that accurately accounts for rink bias and flurries, Comrie had the 2nd highest Sv% above expected of any regular goalie (behind only Shesterkin, of course).

That said, goaltending is voodoo and the sample size is small. It ultimately doesn't predict much. But he very clearly had a good season. Would I rather bank on Comrie as half of a tandem than Blackwood? Yes.

 

[bossram]

I say it just above but, yeah we could have signed a lesser player with significantly less in terms of playoff accomplishments for cheaper.

We decided to spend more on a better player. I'm OK with that.


I already explained it. His best playoff year was 8 years ago, and he was 8th in scoring on the team. He's done next to nothing in the playoffs since.

Saying he provides the same as Palat who is literally one of the best playoff performers in the league over the last 3 years doesn't make sense.

Edit: I missed the Helm part. Older player, nowhere near as good, nowhere near the playoff resume. But sure he'd be cheaper.

There are two pieces to this discussion you're not separating out:

1. Playoff "experience" or some equivalent.

2. Overall on-ice performance.

Acquiring Palat is a combination of the two, albeit at a bloated price. I'm saying the Devils could have acquired individual players who contribute to each of those pieces and still have more cap flexibility. Guys like Pearson or Helm go in bucket 1. Then you still have space to add in bucket 2.

 

[bossram]

So you wanted another Tatar or Johnsson? If you're cheap with your checkbook then you're going to get a cheap player.

Who is this mysterious 25 year old top line player we should have signed for 3.5M?

See post 906 for the logic here. Some of you are not understanding the argument correctly.

Brett Kulak was cheap and would make this club a lot better. And you could still add 1 or 2 middle-six forwards who will be hanging around the bargain bin.

The club doesn't even really need another top-six player. If Fitz was serious about improving, the priority was clearly on defense and in goal (which to his credit, he did address and I do like the Vanecek move).

 

[njdevil26]

For this team. And I'm not factoring in the contract itself. I just mean in general...the players management have decided to bring in for several years now have almost always underwhelmed relative to expectations coming in. My fear is that we've done it again...except this time with a big contract attached.

Johnsson was a cap casualty on a team that hasn't won anything... Tatar is going to tour the entire league and was a healthy scratch in Montreal in the playoffs. Palat is a cup winner, playoff performer, and generally loved by the team and fans he just left.

 

[Bleedred]

I'm not sure how much credit to give your proprietary "stoppable goals" metric because...well...we don't really know what it is.

But looking at MP, which is the only public analytics site that accurately accounts for rink bias and flurries, Comrie had the 2nd highest Sv% above expected of any regular goalie (behind only Shesterkin, of course).

That said, goaltending is voodoo and the sample size is small. It ultimately doesn't predict much. But he very clearly had a good season. Would I rather bank on Comrie as half of a tandem than Blackwood? Yes.

So you would rather Comrie than Vanecek? I don't see why....

Comrie hasn't even played half as many games in the NHL as Vanecek did. He's even less proven, even if there's a recency bias that he has performed better.

I could actually see being a bit annoyed that we waived him in 2021 while keeping Wedgewood and Dell and letting that ship sail in 2021, but not that we didn't just sign him in free agency in 2022. After that ship sailed in 2021, I think there'd be a mutual disinterest among both parties in a reunion.

 

[devilsblood]

There are two pieces to this discussion you're not separating out:

1. Playoff "experience" or some equivalent.

2. Overall on-ice performance.

Acquiring Palat is a combination of the two, albeit at a bloated price. I'm saying the Devils could have acquired individual players who contribute to each of those pieces and still have more cap flexibility. Guys like Pearson or Helm go in bucket 1. Then you still have space to add in bucket 2.

Your conflating playing in the playoffs with playing very well in the playoffs.

Anybody can just be on a good team and play in the playoffs. Palat is one of the best playoff performers in the league. There is a difference.

Helms+Tatar does not equal Palat.

 

[BananaGenetics]

Admittedly would have liked to give Evan Rodrigues a deal. Maybe still can if nobody is offering him anything good. Maybe get him in at 2 years.

Palat will be great as a garbageman on our PP as well as help the kids with sustained pressure in the ozone. Plus he likes to throw his body around, even in the regular season.

 

[Camille the Eel]

First, is the Palat signing confirmed yet ? I haven’t seen anything on NHL.com .

Second, an entire school of thought last season said we were weak inside, had no inside game. Palat would be a major step in that direction and especially valuable to us. Same goes for Haula. Both are players who will play the dirty inside and down low game but who are also good on the rush. Built like fire plugs and able to use their leverage but with puck skills, especially Palat.

These moves make us much better. They address what we need.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Because any time I try to explain why those moves failed or anything like that, you disappear from the discussion. This is how you want it - to just blindly assert negative stuff and not have to explain why things are different now that Hughes and Hischier are now 1Cs, and how that transforms every move the team makes. By the way, I'm not the person who asserted that the Devils f*** up all their free agent signings and then said 'Oh, I guess most of what I'm thinking of isn't actually free agent signings', so maybe I have a reason to think I am better informed.

Here we go again with this disappearance claim. Are discussions supposed to just go on forever? It's funny because there have been times when you eventually stop responding to something...I'm not on here claiming that your opinions are less valid as a result. The fact that I didn't recall whether or not all the acquisitions I was referring to were free agents is relevant to the point of questioning those acquisitions how exactly? My point was about faith in managements assessment of who they bring in...how they bring them in is not of particular import in that context. This reminds me of when one gets into arguments about gun regulation and people deflect with irrelevant shit like whether or not you know the technical specifications of any given firearm.

You certainly have a very good knowledge base of very specific things as it relates to this sport, league, and team. But by the same token you seem blinded to the less tangible, big picture, aspects. You should try showing a bit more humility in your assertions.

How do you add to the core? It's extremely challenging to do that. I think the best way is through the draft - you hope that a player like Mercer, who was a complementary piece last season, makes the jump in a few years to being a core player. Jesper Bratt did that this season. But when you just think that everything only stays the same or gets worse, so the core is going to be constant, then yes, you can be led to assume that the core doesn't have what it takes. I agree with you, actually, if the core is just Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, and Hamilton, yeah, this team is f***ed long-term.

I'm confused by what you're trying to convey here. Are you acknowledging that we do in fact not yet have a good enough core? Because that's what it seems like. And if you are...then I'd think you'd be a little more understanding about the concern with a big contract for a secondary piece.

 

[RSeen]

which possession metrics are you talkin about then? i'm seeing

Copp: CF% 48.1%
Palat: CF% 53.7%

same trend is seen across all situations and PP. point me to copp's better possession metrics
-------
also, I don't think people don't think his physical style and playoff runs will catch up to him, but again -- in 3-4yrs time, if this is a cap crunch contract, then we've gone wrong elsewhere, or we've succeeded as a team that is gunning for deep runs (since we're spending to cap). agree it's an overpayment, but not a poor signing

I see Copp with 53.8% and 2.4% Rel. Palat is 54.1% and 4.3% Rel but starts a significant more % in the offensive zone after a face-off.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

First, is the Palat signing confirmed yet ? I haven’t seen anything on NHL.com .

Second, an entire school of thought last season said we were weak inside, had no inside game. Palat would be a major step in that direction and especially valuable to us. Same goes for Haula. Both are players who will play the dirty inside and down low game but who are also good on the rush. Built like fire plugs and able to use their leverage but with puck skills, especially Palat.

These moves make us much better. They address what we need.

No but all the big reporters reported it.
They’d all look really stupid if it wasn’t true.

 

[BananaGenetics]

Here we go again with this disappearance claim. Are discussions supposed to just go on forever? It's funny because there have been times when you eventually stop responding to something...I'm not on here claiming that your opinions are less valid as a result. The fact that I didn't recall whether or not all the acquisitions I was referring to were free agents is relevant to the point of questioning those acquisitions how exactly? My point was about faith in managements assessment of who they bring in...how they bring them in is not of particular import in that context. This reminds me of when one gets into arguments about gun regulation and people deflect with irrelevant shit like whether or not you know the technical specifications of any given firearm.

You certainly have a very good knowledge base of very specific things as it relates to this sport, league, and team. But by the same token you seem blinded to the less tangible, big picture, aspects. You should try showing a bit more humility in your assertions.


I'm confused by what you're trying to convey here. Are you acknowledging that we do in fact not yet have a good enough core? Because that's what it seems like. And if you are...then I'd think you'd be a little more understanding about the concern with a big contract for a secondary piece.

If our core isnt good enough then idk why any team ever rebuilds

Hischier, Hughes X 2, Bratt, Nemec, Holtz, Mercer, Siegenthaler

That looks like a solid core to me. One that would take at least 7-10 yea.. I mean, bites to get to the Tootsie roll center of a Tootsie pop

 

[OmNomNom]

I see Copp with 53.8% and 2.4% Rel. Palat is 54.1% and 4.3% Rel but starts a significant more % in the offensive zone after a face-off.

Link? It's interesting stuff but I don't think we can say copp is 100% better - I think they're close though

 

[bossram]

So you would rather Comrie than Vanecek? I don't see why....

Comrie hasn't even played half as many games in the NHL as Vanecek did. He's even less proven, even if there's a recency bias that he has performed better.

I could actually see being a bit annoyed that we waived him in 2021 while keeping Wedgewood and Dell and letting that ship sail in 2021, but not that we didn't just sign him in free agency in 2022. After that ship sailed in 2021, I think there'd be a mutual disinterest among both parties in a reunion.

No. I said I'd rather have Comrie than Blackwood. Going with a Vanecek/Comrie tandem. Even moreso, I'd rather have a Reimer/Vanecek tandem. SJ will need to move one of their 3 goalies.

I'm not really concerned with these extraneous factors. Offer Comrie a little more cash and clear opportunity for games, and that's where he's signing.

 

[AfroThunder396]

See post 906 for the logic here. Some of you are not understanding the argument correctly.

Brett Kulak was cheap and would make this club a lot better. And you could still add 1 or 2 middle-six forwards who will be hanging around the bargain bin.

The club doesn't even really need another top-six player. If Fitz was serious about improving, the priority was clearly on defense and in goal (which to his credit, he did address and I do like the Vanecek move).

Brett Kulak, the bottom pairing defenseman who re-signed with the team he was on? He's a better UFA option than a +50 point 2nd line winger who just went to three Cup Finals?

If anything it was signing Brendan Smith that precluded us from that. Signing Palat at 1 am Thursday morning didn't prevent us from bringing in a bottom pairing defenseman who re-signed with his own team 12 hours earlier, what a bizarre comparison.

We absolutely need better forwards, did you see what the roster looked like at the end of the year when Hughes and Bratt were out? We had Zacha in the top-6 pretty much all year and were an injury away from Tatar/Johnsson in the top-6.

Unless you're penciling in rookies for top-6 roles (horrible idea) we definitely needed to add a good forward or two. And we did.

 

[Oneiro]

As far as the character stuff goes, with Palat relative to a Burakovsky, Helm, etc, I think the level of credibility is higher. He's an all situations player, higher IQ and was a no doubt key piece to getting his team to the promised land. It would be like comparing Michael Ryder to Blake Coleman. Championship pedigree for both, but you tell me who impacts their teammates more.

But it's pointless to talk with those who don't see the "soft" unmeasured aspects of team building as real or valuable. This thread is proof of that.

And again, I don't like the age relative to the contract, it's very risky for obvious reasons, but I love having this player on the team otherwise. And I can see a path to where it's not very damaging on any front in a worst case scenario (injured all the time, sub-30 pts, future fourth liner, imminent buyout).

 

[Hisch13r]

Still can’t get over how shortsighted and bad this is and it’s not even good value in the short term. How fast until he looks like Tatar and everyone loses their mind and realizes how f***ing bad this actually is?

 

[devilsblood]

Still can’t get over how shortsighted and bad this is and it’s not even good value in the short term. How fast until he looks like Tatar and everyone loses their mind and realizes how f***ing bad this actually is?

Oi Vey.

Tatar was always a dud though. No matter what Jfresh said. Was benched for the playoffs the year before we signed him. Palat just had a very good playoffs

 

[Bleedred]

No. I said I'd rather have Comrie than Blackwood. Going with a Vanecek/Comrie tandem. Even moreso, I'd rather have a Reimer/Vanecek tandem. SJ will need to move one of their 3 goalies.

I'm not really concerned with these extraneous factors. Offer Comrie a little more cash and clear opportunity for games, and that's where he's signing.

Fair enough.

I don't know if I'd rather have Comrie than Blackwood. I could see Blackwood being better this year than Comrie, but I could also just as much see it being the other way around.

Reimer is a bit older, so I could see him not being able to stay on the ice frequently enough, even if his play holds up.

I'm pretty down on Blackwood though. More down on him than anybody here, I would bet.

I'm really hoping if he sucks this year then that's it. You do with him exactly what Washington just did with Samsonov. Don't qualify him, make him a UFA. Let some other team deal with him or give him a shot for $1.5 million for a year. No way do I want a tandem of Vanecek/Blackwood making a combined $6 million (or more) beyond this year.

If Blackwood has a season that's not above average then he simply has to go. Just like Zacha, the guys that aren't all that good/aren't gonna be worth their next deals that are getting close to UFA age need to be casualties.

Blackwood, Graves and Miles Wood are now among that list. Severson may or may not be. He's MUCH better than those players, but he's also probably gonna be paid considerably more than any of those players and we need to decide whether we want to keep him or not.

 

[bossram]

Brett Kulak, the bottom pairing defenseman who re-signed with the team he was on? He's a better UFA option than a +50 point 2nd line winger who just went to three Cup Finals?

If anything it was signing Brendan Smith that precluded us from that. Signing Palat at 1 am Thursday morning didn't prevent us from bringing in a bottom pairing defenseman who re-signed with his own team 12 hours earlier, what a bizarre comparison.

We absolutely need better forwards, did you see what the roster looked like at the end of the year when Hughes and Bratt were out? We had Zacha in the top-6 pretty much all year and were an injury away from Tatar/Johnsson in the top-6.

Unless you're penciling in rookies for top-6 roles (horrible idea) we definitely needed to add a good forward or two. And we did.

Umm yeah. If any team loses their best center and best winger, their forward core isn't going to look good. Even Colorado had JT Compher playing 2C for stretches. They had like NAK in the top-six for a time. That's what happens.

Like I said, see post 906 for the logic. I would have preferred the Devils to add to their "experience" bucket more cheaply, still have room to improve the roster elsewhere, and still have more long-term cap flexibility.

I've said numerous times I think Palat is a good player. But it's a bad contract. And the wrong timing. If the Devils seriously wanted to contend next season, then I wouldn't have a huge problem with it. Sometimes you gotta pay the piper. But the Devils aren't even at that point yet.

 

[devilsblood]

Both in Mtl and then in NJ, Tatar was a guy who all the young guys get excited for when he scored goals. "You did it buddy".