Buffalo Bills Week 4: Bills @ Ravens

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Good breakdown of this play. Also I know some people aren’t wanting all the national attention the team is getting and are worried it’ll go to the team’s head. I personally am loving every minute of it. I think the guys will stay focused and as a fan, I’m loving it. I want to enjoy every moment of this season. I certainly don’t want to get down on any of it.

 
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Miami scares me this year for the same reason Kansas scares me a lot less. Tyreek Hill, two years in a row, basically outran every damn defender on the Bills and ended their season. Felt like watching a pro player against middle schoolers. There's no limit to the damage a man can do when you can't catch him.
 
Miami scares me this year for the same reason Kansas scares me a lot less. Tyreek Hill, two years in a row, basically outran every damn defender on the Bills and ended their season. Felt like watching a pro player against middle schoolers. There's no limit to the damage a man can do when you can't catch him.
They have done a very good job when they keep him in front of them and working crossing routes. Communication on handing him off or letting Elam work man on him is probably the best. Tackling and a good pass rush will be huge. That oline has weaknesses
 


Isn’t the first guy plucked from us in the McBeane era…won’t be the last guy.
 
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Miami scares me this year for the same reason Kansas scares me a lot less. Tyreek Hill, two years in a row, basically outran every damn defender on the Bills and ended their season. Felt like watching a pro player against middle schoolers. There's no limit to the damage a man can do when you can't catch him.
They have done a very good job when they keep him in front of them and working crossing routes. Communication on handing him off or letting Elam work man on him is probably the best. Tackling and a good pass rush will be huge. That oline has weaknesses
It's not just Hill. It's the fact they have Waddle on the other side. If it were only Hill we had to worry about- then I think we'd beat Miami fairly easily, but they may have the best 1/2 in the league in Hill and Waddle.

That being said- if we get pressure on Tua- we will win. He has shown that he'll make errant passes if the pressure starts to get to him. Also, he's incredibly inconsistent when it comes to rolling out and passing. Buffalo's secondary will feast on any ill placed passes- and believe me- if we get into Tua's face he'll turn the ball over a couple of times. Ed Oliver would be nice to have back to consistently cause havoc up the middle.

Offensively, I think we're going to shit on them. I can see us putting up 40+ on their defense. They looked absolutely terrible against the Ravens. Their pass rush isn't that great while our O line has been stellar at giving Allen time. Howard is a damn good corner, but Diggs route running will give him fits. They're #2 corner (Byron?) is still out.

I said this earlier, but I think Buffalo should start by rushing 4. Miami's o line is improved, but they still haven't proven to be good. If we can get pressure rushing 4, then we will win this game rather easily.

In the end- I still think we win. We have a more talented roster top-to-bottom. We have the better QB. We're hyper focused. I believe Miami will put up a fight, but Tua turns the ball over a couple of times- and that'll make the score look worse than it really was.

Buffalo- 41
Dolphins- 27
 
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things going against BUF:
1:00 start with Upper 80s shade temp with high humidity, heat index >>100F, their thinner depth (due to injuries) will be tested.
short practice week, with road travel
D-line injuries
Gabe Davis - will he be back or not?
secondary injuries
inexperienced secondary depth
(potential) external expectations they win

things going for MIA:
nothing to lose
Hill, Gesecki, Waddle with catches vs. a "keep them in front of you" Bills defense, then turning upfield and tripling their gains with YAC*
Tua had a big game / comeback, he and the 'fins will have confidence.

"push" / no advantage:
hopefully, the crowd

*that's the defense the Bills should play, given injuries and their typical 2-high scheme, but I don't want to see BUF in a track meet / last team with the ball wins the game situation.

I think whomever wins the turnover battle will prevail. If that's a push, it will come down to kicking game / special teams (who has fewer miscues).
 
The only reason I have any worry this weekend is due to our injuries.

If Jackson and Hyde cannot go then you have one backup at safety and a pair of rookies starting at corner against Hill and Waddle. Miami will get some points off of that matchup. To neutralize that we must have a consistent aggressive pass rush, so....

If Tim Settle and Oliver are out again, it again reduces the defensive effectiveness needed against the Miami offense,

Is Morris ok to go at center? Gabe Davis? If the defense is depleted and not able to be the complete shutdown they were the first two weeks, then the Bills offense MUST win a track meet.

At full power I think the Bills handle them solidly. The injuries feel like they are in the worst places for this matchup, making this game closer than I would like.

I think the experience wins the turnover battle and that decides the game for the Bills.
 
No injury updates today?


This is way longer than I like.
Did Mitch Morse come back into the game on Monday after he got hurt? For some reason I thought Van Roten played the rest of the game at center.
Morse came back in. I believe late in the 2nd.
He played 40% of the snaps which tracks cause I believe he got pulled when Josh did as a precaution since he was out earlier in the game.

 
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Are people just being polite about this Dolphins team or are there actual worries? Feels like I'm taking crazy pills with all this hedging going on. It would take the current injury list + Allen for me to be even remotely concerned.
 
After seeing how statistically atrocious the Miami pass defence is, it should be a Bills win. Miami may have to score 50+ if they want to win and the way the Bills defence has played that seems unlikely. Yes they have speedy WRs, talent on offence and Tua has played well, but it seems unlikely they will win a track meet against the Bills offence given the Dolphins defence. I'm not saying this will happen however theoretically the Dolphins could score 30+ points, have 400+ yards of offence, both of which would be well above average of what the Bills defence normally allows, and it may not be enough if the Dolphins pass defence is as poor as the numbers through two weeks say it is.
 
Are people just being polite about this Dolphins team or are there actual worries? Feels like I'm taking crazy pills with all this hedging going on. It would take the current injury list + Allen for me to be even remotely concerned.
Nah. Its just that right now, the dolphins have one element, their ability to go over the top, that could keep them in it long enough for a turnover or two to change the outcome. I think of it like last couple years where we couldn't handle Derrick Henry so he gutted us and kept the Titans in it. With our secondary banged up, the same scenario presents.

Personally, I think the defense, even with a depleted secondary, gets enough pressure to get Tua rattled and mistake prone. Thats all it will take .
 
The concern over the Dolphins offense is also a little exaggerated. For the first 7 quarters of this season they were average or downright terrible. They scored just 13 points against NE (defensive TD brought them to 20 for the game). They had 14 points through 3 quarters against Baltimore. And while Tua threw 6 TDs, he also threw 2 INTs. Miami has basically no run game to speak of as well.

Yes, they have to be careful with those WRs, especially given our secondary is banged up. But our defense is more than capable of limiting them. Edmunds and Milano have been beasting, I expect them to cover a lot of ground in the middle on those intermediate routes. They'll keep the safeties deep to prevent the over-the-top stuff. Elam and Benford have performed admirably so far. Taron Johnson is still Taron Johnson and rock solid. And our D-line has absolutely done their part this season, especially if we get get one or both of Oliver/Settle back. And McDermott/Frazier have proven themselves to be among the top defensive coaches in the league, they'll have a plan to compensate for any personnel issues. We saw one of the best tackling displays Monday night I have ever seen from a Bills defense, so even if Tua is forced into quick throws I expect this defense to limit those gains.

I respect their playmakers. I don't fear playing against them. I think it is still more likely than not we hold them to 20 points or lower. And worst case scenario maybe they get to 30. In either scenario, I'm very comfortable with Allen putting up 30+ and us coming away with a win.
 

Love it. If you can get pressure while only rushing 4- youre going to be a dominant defense.

Also, if the Dolphins are missing Armstead, then theyre in deep doo-doo. Jackson is ok, but Armstead is their best tackle by a wide margin when healthy.

Also, if Howard is out, then just pass it 80% of thr time!

The concern over the Dolphins offense is also a little exaggerated. For the first 7 quarters of this season they were average or downright terrible. They scored just 13 points against NE (defensive TD brought them to 20 for the game). They had 14 points through 3 quarters against Baltimore. And while Tua threw 6 TDs, he also threw 2 INTs. Miami has basically no run game to speak of as well.

Yes, they have to be careful with those WRs, especially given our secondary is banged up. But our defense is more than capable of limiting them. Edmunds and Milano have been beasting, I expect them to cover a lot of ground in the middle on those intermediate routes. They'll keep the safeties deep to prevent the over-the-top stuff. Elam and Benford have performed admirably so far. Taron Johnson is still Taron Johnson and rock solid. And our D-line has absolutely done their part this season, especially if we get get one or both of Oliver/Settle back. And McDermott/Frazier have proven themselves to be among the top defensive coaches in the league, they'll have a plan to compensate for any personnel issues. We saw one of the best tackling displays Monday night I have ever seen from a Bills defense, so even if Tua is forced into quick throws I expect this defense to limit those gains.

I respect their playmakers. I don't fear playing against them. I think it is still more likely than not we hold them to 20 points or lower. And worst case scenario maybe they get to 30. In either scenario, I'm very comfortable with Allen putting up 30+ and us coming away with a win.
It cant be understated how awesome Edmunds has been. He's been a force this year. Hopefully it continues. Beefing up the line has a ripple effect on the rest of the defense, and I think Edmunds is reaping the rewards from that.
 
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