We have a GM problem

[ClydeLee]

There is too much of an assumption of some posters that others just accept this result because it's praising a GM.

There are people who were calling to tear down rebuild for several years before it happened. That this result is exactly what they wanted. That maybe they want decent odds at Gavin McKenna next year too

 

[deytookerjaabs]

There is too much of an assumption of some posters that others just accept this result because it's praising a GM.

There are people who were calling to tear down rebuild for several years before it happened. That this result is exactly what they wanted. That maybe they want decent odds at Gavin McKenna next year too

There are different levels, but this was a scorched earth rebuild. And I get why. To maximize picks he traded away the better younger players too. I even argued that it was hard as hell to knowingly draft Hagel/Cat types outside the top 10. But getting those gems is Davidson's plan because that's how he chose to load the gun.

I'd say Davidson's timeline for success will be known fairly soon.

This type of rebuild needs guys to hit and needs guys outside the top 10 that not only hit...they aren't late bloomers.

In the next few years those 22/23 drafts outside the top pick need to show some blossom from whomever at the NHL level. Davidson has a number of his picks hitting 21 before next season.

 

[CanadianHawks]

What other plan are you expecting? We're still tanking obviously for this season and maybe even the next. Of course the total is less than the sum of its parts, we've got a terrible roster without most of our draft picks on it. We've got a bunch of mid-at best-level vets filling spots in the lineup until the prospects develop and can be regulars at positions of importance. We've got patchwork goaltending. We've got some previously drafted guys who aren't making a major leap either (Reichel and Kurashev).

Be excited about Bedard, Vlassic, Allan, even Kaiser. Be excited about watching Nazar play and knowing we've got Levshunov and Korchinski apparently doing well in the AHL. We've almost certainly got one of Hagens or Schaefer joining the team next year too. I think it's one more bad season after this one and then we're off to the freakin' races.

I really don't get the general negativity about this rebuild by some of you. It's going to take time. Especially on the Hawks board where some of you apparently forget that we didn't start and end our rebuild by drafting Toews and Kane in 06 & 07, then starting winning Cups.

Not to mention, the Stars are hardly a favorite for the Cup. They're in the mix for a top 3 team in the Division and they're not better than Vegas or Edmonton. Them adding a Thomas Harley-type through the draft every now and then sounds sexy and all but it amounts to nothing when it matters. 34yo Matt Duchene is their leading scorer and he's not even at a PPG pace. Robertson is supposed to be their superstar forward and he's having an off year to say the least. Heiskanen for all the praise he gets, while a very good defenseman, isn't carrying his team to a Cup.

You almost always need franchise level players at mulitple positions if you want to win a championship. I'd rather try and to it our current way than hope to be the Dallas Stars, likely ending up way more like the Calgary Flames in the process.

Dallas is likely a top 3 team in the West this year as far as legit contenders. It’s a weird jab they literally just went to back to back conference finals and draft better than anyone. Heiskanen was also Conn Smythe worthy in the bubble and is a Franchise level player. He’s who I would compare Scheffer to, and if he turned into a Heiskanen clone I would be thrilled.

One of the few teams actually capable of winning it all and that window won’t be shutting anytime soon

 

[ColbyChaos]

I'm still not sure what Davidson's plan is besides "suck for picks", which isn't a plan, it's a simple order passed on from the owner.

I like lots of parts but the whole is still worth alot less than the sum of those.

How does a planned rebuild go from LR to Sorensen at this point? I like Sorensen enough to give him time (the bar was really low) but he doesn't fit anything LR was doing.

Whatever his plan was beyond the 3 syllables above, it has changed or it will have to.

Sucking for picks to get good players is a tried and true plan. Name a single cup winner without a top 3 pick on their roster

 

[Hawkaholic]

recent Cup winners
2020/2021 - Tampa Bay Lightning
1st overall 2008 - Stamkos
2nd overall 2009 - Hedman
6th overall 2010 - Connolly
3rd overall 2013 - Drouin

2022 - Colorado Avalanche
2nd overall 2011 - Landeskog
1st overall 2013 - MacKinnon
10th overall 2015 - Rantanen
10th overall 2016 - Jost
4th overall 2017 - Makar
4th overall 2019 - Byram

2023 - Vegas (not a fair comparison)

2024 - Florida Panthers
3rd overall 2010 - Gudbranson
3rd overall 2011 - Huberdeau (traded for Tkachuk)
2nd overall 2013 - Barkov
1st overall 2014 - Ekblad

3 of the last 4 Cup champs were entirely built from the draft and sucked for a long time. They made trades to get to the Cup after assembling their core through the draft. Each team won the Cup at least 9 years after their 1st overall pick. Its a long process.

 

[WarriorofTime]

recent Cup winners
2020/2021 - Tampa Bay Lightning
1st overall 2008 - Stamkos
2nd overall 2009 - Hedman
6th overall 2010 - Connolly
3rd overall 2013 - Drouin

2022 - Colorado Avalanche
2nd overall 2011 - Landeskog
1st overall 2013 - MacKinnon
10th overall 2015 - Rantanen
10th overall 2016 - Jost
4th overall 2017 - Makar
4th overall 2019 - Byram

2023 - Vegas (not a fair comparison)

2024 - Florida Panthers
3rd overall 2010 - Gudbranson
3rd overall 2011 - Huberdeau (traded for Tkachuk)
2nd overall 2013 - Barkov
1st overall 2014 - Ekblad

3 of the last 4 Cup champs were entirely built from the draft and sucked for a long time. They made trades to get to the Cup after assembling their core through the draft. Each team won the Cup at least 9 years after their 1st overall pick. Its a long process.

And then before that you get to Washington with Ovie, Pitt with Sid/Malkin, Chicago with Kane/Toews...

It is the method. Everyone wants to St. Louis 2019 their way to a Cup, but that's both the exception and the biggest fluke of the cap era (seriously, they were the least good team within the year they won it to win and while competitive for a while, were never particularly close before or after).

 

[TLEH]

Luke Richardson was fired on December 5th. Team was 8-16-2 on a 57 point pace. Sorenson takes over and is 6-12-0 for a 55 point pace.

Total GF and GA numbers are 113 GF and 152 GA.

Sorenson has 51 GF and 70 GA in 18 games. 2.83 GFPG 3.88 GAPG

Richardson has 62 GF and 82 GA in 26 games. 2.38 GFPG 3.15 GAPG.

A lot of work to show what has sort of been obvious. We are scoring more and giving up more under Sorenson.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Luke Richardson was fired on December 5th. Team was 8-16-2 on a 57 point pace. Sorenson takes over and is 6-12-0 for a 55 point pace.

Total GF and GA numbers are 113 GF and 152 GA.

Sorenson has 51 GF and 70 GA in 18 games. 2.83 GFPG 3.88 GAPG

Richardson has 62 GF and 82 GA in 26 games. 2.38 GFPG 3.15 GAPG.

A lot of work to show what has sort of been obvious. We are scoring more and giving up more under Sorenson.

Not a surprise, but would be curious about the sv% numbers under both. I feel like they have got worse under Sorenson.

 

[TLEH]

Not a surprise, but would be curious about the sv% numbers under both. I feel like they have got worse under Sorenson.

Mrazek has gone off a cliff yeah.

.896 in 9 starts in October.
.927 in 8 starts in November.
.854 in 2 starts for Luke in Dec.
.792 in 3 starts for Sorenson in Dec. One appearance he left after 4 shots.
.899 in 3 starts in Jan for Sorenson.

Soda

.911 in two starts in Oct
.933 in 4 starts in Nov
.857 in one start in Dec for Luke
.895 in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances in Dec. for Sorenson
.889 in 3 starts in Jan.

A lot to this obviously they probably see more HDCA and stuff now that we free wheel.

 

[Dead Meat]

Everyone wants to St. Louis 2019 their way to a Cup, but that's both the exception and the biggest fluke of the cap era

Binnington was literally the fourth string goalie and only came to the NHL because everybody else was injured.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Mrazek has gone off a cliff yeah.

.896 in 9 starts in October.
.927 in 8 starts in November.
.854 in 2 starts for Luke in Dec.
.792 in 3 starts for Sorenson in Dec. One appearance he left after 4 shots.
.899 in 3 starts in Jan for Sorenson.

Soda

.911 in two starts in Oct
.933 in 4 starts in Nov
.857 in one start in Dec for Luke
.895 in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances in Dec. for Sorenson
.889 in 3 starts in Jan.

A lot to this obviously they probably see more HDCA and stuff now that we free wheel.

Just looked.

Richardson Sv% (all situations) = 0.8965% (7th)
Sorenson Sv% (all situations) = 0.8725% (30th)

Other stats:
Under R
CF% - 44.92%
xGF% - 43.53%
SCF% - 43.87%
HDCF% - 43.29%

Under S
CF% - 44.39% (-0.53)
xGF% - 42.29% (-1.01)
SCF% - 43.6% (-0.27)
HDCF% - 42.79% (-0.5)

Advanced stats are slightly worse, but not much difference.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Dallas is likely a top 3 team in the West this year as far as legit contenders. It’s a weird jab they literally just went to back to back conference finals and draft better than anyone. Heiskanen was also Conn Smythe worthy in the bubble and is a Franchise level player. He’s who I would compare Scheffer to, and if he turned into a Heiskanen clone I would be thrilled.

One of the few teams actually capable of winning it all and that window won’t be shutting anytime soon

Hardly. Again I don't think they're better than Edmonton (who beat them last season), Vegas, and I certainly don't think they're the best team in the Central. At best they're in the mix with Winnipeg, Colorado, and Minnesota but there's no clear separation between those teams.

I love Heiskanen and if we can draft this Schaefer kid with Heiskanen as a comparison then we'd be in fantastic shape. The Stars still need more help beyond him and the proof is in the pudding, they're routinely a good team that goes deep in the playoffs but when they run into a great team they lose. That's not what the Hawks should be striving towards. We would much rather be Panthers fans than Stars fans if we had to choose. I'd rather be an Oilers fan than a Stars fan because they're closer to winning a Cup too.

Do you remember how amazing of a roster the Dynasty Hawks had for 7-8 years? That came from years of tanking to get franchise caliber players and years of drafting well beyond the 1st round. It's not one or the other. The Hawks scouting team will have to be doing both if we want to be a perennial contender again.

Binnington was literally the fourth string goalie and only came to the NHL because everybody else was injured.

As well as Boston totally blowing it in game 7.

 

[CanadianHawks]

Hardly. Again I don't think they're better than Edmonton (who beat them last season), Vegas, and I certainly don't think they're the best team in the Central. At best they're in the mix with Winnipeg, Colorado, and Minnesota but there's no clear separation between those teams.

I love Heiskanen and if we can draft this Schaefer kid with Heiskanen as a comparison then we'd be in fantastic shape. The Stars still need more help beyond him and the proof is in the pudding, they're routinely a good team that goes deep in the playoffs but when they run into a great team they lose. That's not what the Hawks should be striving towards. We would much rather be Panthers fans than Stars fans if we had to choose. I'd rather be an Oilers fan than a Stars fan because they're closer to winning a Cup too.

Do you remember how amazing of a roster the Dynasty Hawks had for 7-8 years? That came from years of tanking to get franchise caliber players and years of drafting well beyond the 1st round. It's not one or the other. The Hawks scouting team will have to be doing both if we want to be a perennial contender again.


As well as Boston totally blowing it in game 7.

Fair point. I really don’t think Dallas is far though. They really have every piece. Johnstone is having a down year but he looks like a number one C going forward. Number one D, goalie and a winger who has hit 100 plus points already by his mid 20s. Edmonton and Vegas are likely the two best teams in the league this year. I would be surprised if the cup winner isn’t one of those 3 teams.

Colorado isn’t deep enough these days. Reminds me of our Hawks in 2012 ish. Minnesota and Winnipeg are absolute pretenders until they can win a round. That is not a situation I would want to be in.