We do 3v3 OT wrong

[Hellcat]

It’s definitely not for you, after reading the last few pages. Lol.

LOL.. and to think a person can get a MBA and a CPA when math is not for him ... swing and a miss there sparky.

 

[FiveHoleo]

The Leafs under Keefe are an incredibly frustrating 3v3 OT team. We MASSIVELY undervalue the importance of possession. Every other team in the league tries to hold onto the puck as long as possible, they'll basically never force a "high risk of turnover" play unless it'll clearly lead to an amazing scoring chance, but the Leafs force high risk of turnover plays, even if they have little payoff/reward, constantly. Marner is the worst offender, then Nylander, but to a certain extent it's the whole team. We have now lost 3 straight in OT, and in every single one we've carelessly turned the puck over for no reason (hasn't always directly lead to the goal, but we've had 1+ careless, unnecessary turnovers each OT, when we could have/should have maintained possession). This pattern goes back years, too.

This team either doesn't practice/coach 3v3 OT, or practices/coaches it wrong. It's mind-boggling.

This is an awesome and completely true post. It's amazing to me that none of Kyle's number crunching nerds on staff could get that important detail to the coaches. It was the same under Babcock.

 

[ponder]

Another case tonight against Tampa where we play a very good game at even strength, then throw it away with basic 3v3 OT mistakes. Gain initial possession, patient for about 10 seconds, then the impatience sets in. Mitch pulls a risky drop pass entering the zone, Matthews picks it up with defenders immediately all over him, then turnover which quickly becomes a goal against. Game over 30 seconds into OT due, yet again, to a lack of patience/unnecessary risks. I still say it’s not any one move, it’s the whole approach - there wasn’t going to be a safe/clean zone entry there, better to just turn back, regroup, and try again while maintaining possession, but we never seem to do that, always force it the way you would 5v5.

At least there’s no 3v3 OT in the playoffs, and we’re playing well otherwise, but it’s kind of comical how bad we are at 3v3. Some of the top talent in the league, but arguably the worst 3v3 OT team in the league regardless.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Email keeqf with your thoughts

 

[Gallagbi]

Another case tonight against Tampa where we play a very good game at even strength, then throw it away with basic 3v3 OT mistakes. Gain initial possession, patient for about 10 seconds, then the impatience sets in. Mitch pulls a risky drop pass entering the zone, Matthews picks it up with defenders immediately all over him, then turnover which quickly becomes a goal against. Game over 30 seconds into OT due, yet again, to a lack of patience/unnecessary risks. I still say it’s not any one move, it’s the whole approach - there wasn’t going to be a safe/clean zone entry there, better to just turn back, regroup, and try again while maintaining possession, but we never seem to do that, always force it the way you would 5v5.

At least there’s no 3v3 OT in the playoffs, and we’re playing well otherwise, but it’s kind of comical how bad we are at 3v3. Some of the top talent in the league, but arguably the worst 3v3 OT team in the league regardless.

Honestly that puck cant go in. Its just a bad goal to allow on an average shot

 

[francis246]

Another case tonight against Tampa where we play a very good game at even strength, then throw it away with basic 3v3 OT mistakes. Gain initial possession, patient for about 10 seconds, then the impatience sets in. Mitch pulls a risky drop pass entering the zone, Matthews picks it up with defenders immediately all over him, then turnover which quickly becomes a goal against. Game over 30 seconds into OT due, yet again, to a lack of patience/unnecessary risks. I still say it’s not any one move, it’s the whole approach - there wasn’t going to be a safe/clean zone entry there, better to just turn back, regroup, and try again while maintaining possession, but we never seem to do that, always force it the way you would 5v5.

At least there’s no 3v3 OT in the playoffs, and we’re playing well otherwise, but it’s kind of comical how bad we are at 3v3. Some of the top talent in the league, but arguably the worst 3v3 OT team in the league regardless.

That turnover was all Matthews. Matthews had enough time to hold the puck. Marner did not thing wrong. He gain entry into the zone. He was about to get pinched on the boards. Made a tape to tape pass to Matthews and Matthews decides to drop pass in the middle of the ice. Where exactly is that Marner being impatient?

 

[Hellcat]

Keefe continues to put out the most creative and irresponsible players and get the same results every time. Hey put out Kampf and Robertson next time, ya got nothing to lose.

 

[Anthrax442]

1. Why is Mathhews throwing a no look pass through 2 Tampa players?
2. WTF is Murray doing?

 

[wingman75]

Matthews has to be better there. A no look drop pass at the blueline rarely works in regulation time, let alone 3-on-3. Not only did he make a dumb pass, on the back check, all he had to do was stick with Killorn, but he covered... space I guess, left a gap, and could not recover... I think he tipped that goal too based on the way Murray reacted. Just bonehead decisions from start to finish.

They are putting the right guys out... but those guys are consistently making the wrong decisions. So, at what point does the coach look elsewhere?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Matthews has to be better there. A no look drop pass at the blueline rarely works in regulation time, let alone 3-on-3. Not only did he make a dumb pass, on the back check, all he had to do was stick with Killorn, but he covered... space I guess, left a gap, and could not recover... I think he tipped that goal too based on the way Murray reacted. Just bonehead decisions from start to finish.

They are putting the right guys out... but those guys are consistently making the wrong decisions. So, at what point does the coach look elsewhere?

Posted this in the Game Thread:

2022-2023: 1-6
2021-2022: 6-6
2020-2021: 5-7
2019-2020: 7-4
2018-2019: 6-6
2017-2018: 5-5
2016-2017: 6-7

We have mostly hovered around .500 at OT, which is not good for a team like ours. It hasn't just been a problem this year. Our SO record is typically pretty bad too, which is also not good for a team like ours.

Thing to keep in mind too though is that 4 of our OT losses came with Kallgren in net and he was beat clean on the high glove every time. He didn't look competitive on any of the goals against, even if they were tough saves to make. Then you also add in Murray's goal against today, which wasn't even a good opportunity against. At some point, it can't be an automatic goal against either... And that is what it effectively is right now. 53% Save percentage at OT right now is simply unacceptable, even if there are a number of odd-man opportunities against.

The problem with the skaters is Marner more than anyone else. Sure, Matthews/Rielly/Nylander/Tavares make mistakes too, but the numbers are pretty damning for Marner.

Last 3 years:
Matthews with Marner vs. without: 25 GF% vs. 66.67 GF%
Nylander with Marner vs. without: 28.57 GF% vs. 50 GF%
Rielly with Marner vs. without: 18.18 GF% vs. 66.67 GF%
Tavares with Marner vs. without: 50 GF% vs. 30 GF%. (Tavares didn't do well with Nylander, but did well with Matthews and Rielly)

Unfortunately, I doubt we take Marner out of 3-on-3 altogether, even though he has a 33% GF% in his career right now. Matthews and Nylander, by comparison, are around 50% and are only that low because of their time with Marner. Rielly is a little bit lower than Matthews/Nylander, but spent more time with Marner too and is still by far our best option for 3-on-3 on defense.

We probably need to start treating it like we would a shootout or PK. Your best guys are maybe not the ones who should be used, because some lesser guys are just specialists at it. Marner is already used more than any other forward more or less in the NHL. We are already looking at ways to cut down his ice time, and OT is a much better place to do that than cutting him at times when he is far more effective (like 5-on-5, PP, or PK). We can afford to use Jarnkrok (6-3 OT record in the last 6 years), Holmberg (reminds me a lot of a LH version of Jarnkrok stylistically, but with a slightly worse shot at this point), Malgin (one of the best European players in recent history; he is used to open ice), or Robertson (excellent shot and strong enough skater who has our only OT goal so far this year) instead, and get them more ice time.

All things said, I think the strategy should be Matthews-Nylander-Rielly to start. If they are tired (either at the beginning of OT or you need to take a draw after they have taken a shift), then you can use Tavares for the draw and get him off ASAP similar to Spezza on the PK. Then have 2 of Holmberg/Jarnkrok/Malgin/Robertson. I would consider Liljegren as the next guy behind Rielly, but Gio/Sandin should also receive consideration and they mostly just need to figure out who works best.

 

[Stephen]

I said this in the Tampa postgame, and adding a couple of other observations as well.Looks like a lot of problems compounded into one.

-They don't seem to have confidence so they're always looking to retreat deeper and deeper to safety, which kills their own momentum and opens them up to a counter.

-When it comes to moving north they seem disjointed like they don't know if they should be hunting for a breakaway, or moving as a unit up the ice. Spread too thin on formation.

-And when they move as a unit, they like having the last man back do the puck carrying, which creates a lot of drop pass plays, which opens up the counter.

-Someone else said it, but Marner seems to thrive more under the chaos of a 5 on 5 situation or in a disruptor role on the PK than in wide open OT. Matthews seems to hesitate to take the puck to the net on a consistent basis as well, so that duo isn't working right now.

-Maybe just try something random like Kampf and Nylander or something.

 

[Gabriel426]

I said this in the Tampa postgame, and adding a couple of other observations as well.Looks like a lot of problems compounded into one.

-They don't seem to have confidence so they're always looking to retreat deeper and deeper to safety, which kills their own momentum and opens them up to a counter.

-When it comes to moving north they seem disjointed like they don't know if they should be hunting for a breakaway, or moving as a unit up the ice. Spread too thin on formation.

-And when they move as a unit, they like having the last man back do the puck carrying, which creates a lot of drop pass plays, which opens up the counter.

-Someone else said it, but Marner seems to thrive more under the chaos of a 5 on 5 situation or in a disruptor role on the PK than in wide open OT. Matthews seems to hesitate to take the puck to the net on a consistent basis as well, so that duo isn't working right now.

-Maybe just try something random like Kampf and Nylander or something.

At this point, it is on execution and not coaching.
Maybe letting the other team win the opening faceoff might ease the guys a bit.
Bc there is no way, Keefe and others told them to play this way in OT.
I would start Engvall and Kampf then have Willie and AM or MM and AM or MM and Willie.

 

[Stephen]

At this point, it is on execution and not coaching.
Maybe letting the other team win the opening faceoff might ease the guys a bit.
Bc there is no way, Keefe and others told them to play this way in OT.
I would start Engvall and Kampf then have Willie and AM or MM and AM or MM and Willie.

Like everything Leafs this era, they just need to get out of their own heads. 3 on 3 OT is just a job. Not a referendum on your talent level or a highlight reel waiting to happen. Take a breath, go out and do it and don't worry too much.

 

[ponder]

That was a much, much better 3v3 OT against the Blues. With the puck we were patient, willing to retreat if it meant maintaining possession, and more or less only risking losing possession for legit strong scoring chances. Without the puck we protected the middle of the ice.

Props to the team for recognizing a weakness, practicing it, and improving. Hope we keep it up!

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That was a much, much better 3v3 OT against the Blues. With the puck we were patient, willing to retreat if it meant maintaining possession, and more or less only risking losing possession for legit strong scoring chances. Without the puck we protected the middle of the ice.

Props to the team for recognizing a weakness, practicing it, and improving. Hope we keep it up!

It's funny you bring up the willingness to retreat because that willingness to retreat arguably in part lead to Nylander scoring.

The winning play starts with the Blues retreating with the puck

 

[ponder]

It's funny you bring up the willingness to retreat because that willingness to retreat arguably in part lead to Nylander scoring.

The winning play starts with the Blues retreating with the puck

Yeah, there’s no perfect strategies, but definitely 3v3 OT is much more slanted towards maintaining puck possession, even if that means retreating. Tarasenko was too casual on that play and let himself get stripped. He wasn’t really committing one way or the other - like he was only retreating very slowly, trying to keep the puck in the o-zone, and he just let Willie close on him too easily, vs. either retreating faster (keeping more of a gap from Willie) or passing it quicker.

But overall, our strategy in this OT reflected much more how other teams approach 3v3 OT - I thought we looked a lot better out there, and we won.

 

[meefer]

While I'm happy we got the W, watching this 3v3 is different than watching hockey.
A win = 2
A tie = 1
A loss = 0
But Bettman.

 

[Zybalto]

While I'm happy we got the W, watching this 3v3 is different than watching hockey.
A win = 2
A tie = 1
A loss = 0
But Bettman.

Reg win=3
Gimmick win=2
Gimmick loss=1
Reg loss=0

...seems like the fairest way if we are going to include the gimmicks.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Yeah, there’s no perfect strategies, but definitely 3v3 OT is much more slanted towards maintaining puck possession, even if that means retreating. Tarasenko was too casual on that play and let himself get stripped. He wasn’t really committing one way or the other - like he was only retreating very slowly, trying to keep the puck in the o-zone, and he just let Willie close on him too easily, vs. either retreating faster (keeping more of a gap from Willie) or passing it quicker.

But overall, our strategy in this OT reflected much more how other teams approach 3v3 OT - I thought we looked a lot better out there, and we won.

Keefe realized that other teams were literally playing to OT on us to expose a weakness in sloppy high risk 3v3 play; wait for our stars to give the puck away on high risk play (if posession isn't available off the draw), then tire them out with posession and cycling, then create a legit scoring chance, and often score. Keefe's response to this was to begin starting Kampf and 2x D for the last 2 OTs - ridiculous as it is, it worked. And hopefully it also sent a message that our stars cannot continually play like the globetrotters in 3v3OT.

 

[Maple Leaf]

The Leafs under Keefe are an incredibly frustrating 3v3 OT team. We MASSIVELY undervalue the importance of possession. Every other team in the league tries to hold onto the puck as long as possible, they'll basically never force a "high risk of turnover" play unless it'll clearly lead to an amazing scoring chance, but the Leafs force high risk of turnover plays, even if they have little payoff/reward, constantly. Marner is the worst offender, then Nylander, but to a certain extent it's the whole team. We have now lost 3 straight in OT, and in every single one we've carelessly turned the puck over for no reason (hasn't always directly lead to the goal, but we've had 1+ careless, unnecessary turnovers each OT, when we could have/should have maintained possession). This pattern goes back years, too.

This team either doesn't practice/coach 3v3 OT, or practices/coaches it wrong. It's mind-boggling.

Finally someone making sense

 

[JT AM da real deal]

LOL.. and to think a person can get a MBA and a CPA when math is not for him ... swing and a miss there sparky.

It is weird but very very true .. mba and cpa are really not about complex math at all unless you go into finance or actuarial work

 

[ER89]

That was a much, much better 3v3 OT against the Blues. With the puck we were patient, willing to retreat if it meant maintaining possession, and more or less only risking losing possession for legit strong scoring chances. Without the puck we protected the middle of the ice.

Props to the team for recognizing a weakness, practicing it, and improving. Hope we keep it up!

Your post on mitch was spot on. It's like he sees space and gets so excited any semblance of defensive reliability goes out the window. Again he did a poor drop pass that almost was picked off but another leaf was behind covering mitch's ass.

Marner does a lot for this team - maybe OT just isn't it and that is okay when you have guys like matthews (although hes been doing plenty of f***ery himself) nylander et al.

I also think JT is a bit of a liability in OT considering his speed is ass.

 

[Auston 316]

Posted this in the Game Thread:

2022-2023: 1-6
2021-2022: 6-6
2020-2021: 5-7
2019-2020: 7-4
2018-2019: 6-6
2017-2018: 5-5
2016-2017: 6-7

We have mostly hovered around .500 at OT, which is not good for a team like ours. It hasn't just been a problem this year. Our SO record is typically pretty bad too, which is also not good for a team like ours.

Thing to keep in mind too though is that 4 of our OT losses came with Kallgren in net and he was beat clean on the high glove every time. He didn't look competitive on any of the goals against, even if they were tough saves to make. Then you also add in Murray's goal against today, which wasn't even a good opportunity against. At some point, it can't be an automatic goal against either... And that is what it effectively is right now. 53% Save percentage at OT right now is simply unacceptable, even if there are a number of odd-man opportunities against.

The problem with the skaters is Marner more than anyone else. Sure, Matthews/Rielly/Nylander/Tavares make mistakes too, but the numbers are pretty damning for Marner.

Last 3 years:
Matthews with Marner vs. without: 25 GF% vs. 66.67 GF%
Nylander with Marner vs. without: 28.57 GF% vs. 50 GF%
Rielly with Marner vs. without: 18.18 GF% vs. 66.67 GF%
Tavares with Marner vs. without: 50 GF% vs. 30 GF%. (Tavares didn't do well with Nylander, but did well with Matthews and Rielly)

Unfortunately, I doubt we take Marner out of 3-on-3 altogether, even though he has a 33% GF% in his career right now. Matthews and Nylander, by comparison, are around 50% and are only that low because of their time with Marner. Rielly is a little bit lower than Matthews/Nylander, but spent more time with Marner too and is still by far our best option for 3-on-3 on defense.

We probably need to start treating it like we would a shootout or PK. Your best guys are maybe not the ones who should be used, because some lesser guys are just specialists at it. Marner is already used more than any other forward more or less in the NHL. We are already looking at ways to cut down his ice time, and OT is a much better place to do that than cutting him at times when he is far more effective (like 5-on-5, PP, or PK). We can afford to use Jarnkrok (6-3 OT record in the last 6 years), Holmberg (reminds me a lot of a LH version of Jarnkrok stylistically, but with a slightly worse shot at this point), Malgin (one of the best European players in recent history; he is used to open ice), or Robertson (excellent shot and strong enough skater who has our only OT goal so far this year) instead, and get them more ice time.

All things said, I think the strategy should be Matthews-Nylander-Rielly to start. If they are tired (either at the beginning of OT or you need to take a draw after they have taken a shift), then you can use Tavares for the draw and get him off ASAP similar to Spezza on the PK. Then have 2 of Holmberg/Jarnkrok/Malgin/Robertson. I would consider Liljegren as the next guy behind Rielly, but Gio/Sandin should also receive consideration and they mostly just need to figure out who works best.

8 paragraphs longer than necessary for this “problem”

 

[meefer]

Reg win=3
Gimmick win=2
Gimmick loss=1
Reg loss=0

...seems like the fairest way if we are going to include the gimmicks.

Wish I could, friend, but it's a simple: 2,1,0 for me.

 

[Hellcat]

It is weird but very very true .. mba and cpa are really not about complex math at all unless you go into finance or actuarial work

Are we doing complex math on HF?