We do 3v3 OT wrong

[Hellcat]

I'm not sure you can really call a less than 19 minute sample "large enough", especially with such a chaotic environment like 3v3. They haven't really been spectacular in that small sample, but a lot of that goal differential is probably just noise. Nobody is going to have a great goal differential when you're getting 0.467 goaltending. And if you take any combination of 2 of those 3 players over that same timeframe, they are 7-0. I'd imagine there's a lot of one person changed off by the time they score happening here.

LOL .. goalies having a bad sv% in OT? With only 3 people on the ice.. you don't say ... Ever hear of the saying you have to get through 5 skaters before you get to the goalie, same premise applies for Toronto, the saying for the Leafs is slightly different it goes, you have to get through 3 cherry pickers before you can beat the Leafs in OT.

 

[Hellcat]

Some coaches would eventually talk to their team about cherry picking and choosing their spots in OT but not Keefe, who needs strategy, when you got Keefe's "Hockey feelings"

 

[Havoc]

LOL .. goalies having a bad sv% in OT? With only 3 people on the ice.. you don't say ... Ever hear of the saying you have to get through 5 skaters before you get to the goalie, same premise applies for Toronto, the saying for the Leafs is slightly different it goes, you have to get through 3 cherry pickers before you can beat the Leafs in OT.

Yeah. Gotta take context into account. When I go play ball hockey for fun some evenings, around 6 goals against would be equivalent to 1 goals against for 5 on 5 ice hockey. Who in their right mind would bring up save % in 3 on 3. We don't even play 3 on 3 in playoffs.

I do think better structure is needed from the players in 3 on 3 though. Comes down to structure overall. If you're sloppy 3 on 3 more so than other teams, it's an indicaton that you have the potential to be sloppy compared to other teams in all areas when it matters. It's not good practice to pick and choose what you want to be good at. We've seen 6 years in a row where bad habits get us.

Just be good no matter what the circumstance so that you build an atmosphere of perfection.

 

[Dekes For Days]

LOL .. goalies having a bad sv% in OT? With only 3 people on the ice.. you don't say ...

The average OT SV% over the past few years hovers around 0.850 SV%, so yeah, 0.467 goaltending is quite notable.

 

[notdoneyet]

It's tough, maybe Leafs say well we have 1 point so go for it. Especially against a team from the other conference it doesn't matter as much to give a point... overall I like that mentality. Although letting in a shorty last night to go to OT in the first place sucks.

However at the same time like people have stated, they're a possession team so why give it up so easily in OT by pressuring so fast.

They have so much talent especially at 3 on 3 they're going to get their looks.

I'd have Nylander out there every time as much as possible in OT. Doesn't seem to phase him as much. Anyway just my 2 cents.

He gave the puck away to karlsson in a poor play fir the winner in overtime

 

[snipes29]

The Leafs under Keefe are an incredibly frustrating 3v3 OT team. We MASSIVELY undervalue the importance of possession. Every other team in the league tries to hold onto the puck as long as possible, they'll basically never force a "high risk of turnover" play unless it'll clearly lead to an amazing scoring chance, but the Leafs force high risk of turnover plays, even if they have little payoff/reward, constantly. Marner is the worst offender, then Nylander, but to a certain extent it's the whole team. We have now lost 3 straight in OT, and in every single one we've carelessly turned the puck over for no reason (hasn't always directly lead to the goal, but we've had 1+ careless, unnecessary turnovers each OT, when we could have/should have maintained possession). This pattern goes back years, too.

This team either doesn't practice/coach 3v3 OT, or practices/coaches it wrong. It's mind-boggling.

Fire Keefe

 

[1specter]

It's definitely coaching. I believe under Babcock the Leafs were one of the league's best 3v3 OT teams.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Go with ur best 3 players in each game to start .. going off hunches does not motivate guys .. last night it was Willy Bunting and Lily/Gio .. who cares about matchups .. go with guys who want it more that night .. Keefer/Dubie looking to please rather than looking to win .. hockey is a simple game at its roots

 

[TMLAM34]

Who’s our best player? Matthews. Who scored in yesterdays game, Matthews and Nylander. That’s who you start OT with.

 

[PeE eL DuBoiS]

How hard is it to put out Nylander for the start of OT? If you forget his number, his name is literally written on the back of his jersey.

N-Y-L-A-N-D-E-R

There is a Y and a D in it which do not look anything like the letters in Marner.

f***ing twit, Keefe. Get the round block for the round hole. Stop trying to force the the wrong shape in. You learn this at age 2.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Keefe has the right idea - the Leafs are a great comeback team. Trading goals is no problem, sure you might give up the first but they'll get another two back before OT ends. Wait, why is everyone leaving?

 

[Judas Tavares]

It's definitely coaching. I believe under Babcock the Leafs were one of the league's best 3v3 OT teams.

I'm not going to defend Keefe's OT, and I could be wrong and there could be stats to back up Babcock in OT. But I remember starting Kadri-Komarov a lot and losing. People would complain and ask why he didn't start the more offensive players. His response was something like, calm things down on the first shift then pass it off to the next guys over the boards to get it done. And we all felt it was bullshit, which it was.

It feels like this era has never been great in OT. Try Matthews/Nylander/Liljegren and go from there. Hell guys like Malgin can do damage in OT too. It's a skills comp. Yet, the most skilled guy on the team is horrible at it time and time again... mind boggling.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's definitely coaching. I believe under Babcock the Leafs were one of the league's best 3v3 OT teams.

22-25 under Babcock
17-19 under Keefe

Really no difference.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

If they lose the opening draw in OT just turn off your TV, they have zero chance.
Rielly is a shitty dman, they're better off putting Lilly out there.

 

[egd27]

Strongly disagree, shootouts are luck, or at least not very coachable, but 3v3 OT is very coachable and strong strategies make a big difference. Our 3v3 OT strategy is IMO terrible.

FWIW, 1 win, 4 losses in games decided in 3v3 OT this year. Or over the past 9 months, 3 wins, 8 losses. We should be one of the best 3v3 OT teams, the skill is there in the players, but we've been terrible for awhile now.

IMO it's not luck, we simply never have the puck. We consistently give it away so quickly due to extreme impatience/needless risks. Every other team in the league has figured out that 3v3 OT is about being super patient, holding onto the puck and wearing down your opponent, even if that means lots of cutting back, retreating towards your own zone to regroup, etc. A clear, winning 3v3 OT strategy has emerged in the NHL, and it seems like we're the only team that hasn't got the memo.

Exactly.

• Hold the puck away from the opposition bench and relatively close to your own.
• Tire the defenders out while you are able to make line changes
• Wait until the fatigue fully sets in and pick up the pace with the fresh legs
• Then strike

Seems like a strategy a house league coach could figure out.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

The Leafs under Keefe are an incredibly frustrating 3v3 OT team. We MASSIVELY undervalue the importance of possession. Every other team in the league tries to hold onto the puck as long as possible, they'll basically never force a "high risk of turnover" play unless it'll clearly lead to an amazing scoring chance, but the Leafs force high risk of turnover plays, even if they have little payoff/reward, constantly. Marner is the worst offender, then Nylander, but to a certain extent it's the whole team. We have now lost 3 straight in OT, and in every single one we've carelessly turned the puck over for no reason (hasn't always directly lead to the goal, but we've had 1+ careless, unnecessary turnovers each OT, when we could have/should have maintained possession). This pattern goes back years, too.

This team either doesn't practice/coach 3v3 OT, or practices/coaches it wrong. It's mind-boggling.

I think it's always a distinct part of TOR's system: they cheat.

They leave the defensive zone early, they pinch, and they try stretch passes.

Last night's 3vs3 OT. was an example of that and it went sideways once it was turned over. JT made a bad play, but it seems to me that it could be part of the cheating game plan.

 

[Hellcat]

The average OT SV% over the past few years hovers around 0.850 SV%, so yeah, 0.467 goaltending is quite notable.

Sparky that is the sv% of the winning and losing team? Got a clue as to why that is not a pertinent stat?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sparky that is the sv% of the winning and losing team? Got a clue as to why that is not a pertinent stat?

...What? It's the average SV% of all goaltenders in all OTs over the past few years, and it was relevant to the discussion.

 

[mydnyte]

...What? It's the average SV% of all goaltenders in all OTs over the past few years, and it was relevant to the discussion.

when there is an average of less than 5 shots in OT, it useless ...one save on one shot is 1.0 while a 2 on 1 goal on first shot is 0% ...makes the mathematic useless overall.
we give up quality chances and 2 on 1's in OT regularly, and no goalie can be expected to stop those chances safe a mis hit from the shooter

 

[Dekes For Days]

when there is an average of less than 5 shots in OT, it useless

It's not useless. If thousands of OT shots around the league are being saved at a rate of ~0.850 SV% and our goalies are putting up a 0.467 SV% in that sample, the fact is we're not getting good enough goaltending in that sample, and it's contributing to the goal differential.

We give up quality chances and 2 on 1's in OT regularly, and no goalie can be expected to stop those chances safe a mis hit from the shooter

All teams give up quality chances and 2 on 1s in OT. So do our opponents. It's 3v3. Goalies are not expected to give up a goal on every single one. You're far underestimating how often NHL goalies, on average, save quality chances. 0.467 is worse than you'd expect for even unimpeded breakaways.

 

[Hellcat]

...What? It's the average SV% of all goaltenders in all OTs over the past few years, and it was relevant to the discussion.

Umm no its not, you're trying to illustrate that the NHL average is above .800 and the Leafs are below .500. Newsflash for the teams that win in OT. Their sv% can only be nothing because they get no shots on goal against, therefore not weighting the overall average or 1.000 sv% weighting the overall sv% higher. Perhaps only you are surprised that a team that has a losing record, has a sv% that low. It's not a goalie problem, its a strategy problem. Math...things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmm

 

[Judas Tavares]

Umm no its not, you're trying to illustrate that the NHL average is above .800 and the Leafs are below .500. Newsflash for the teams that win in OT. Their sv% can only be nothing because they get no shots on goal against, therefore not weighting the overall average or 1.000 sv% weighting the overall sv% higher. Perhaps only you are surprised that a team that has a losing record, has a sv% that low. It's not a goalie problem, its a strategy problem. Math...things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmm

What? The winning team can win 4:59 into OT, with their goalie having made 10 saves before they went and scored the winner. What am I not getting here?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Umm no its not, you're trying to illustrate that the NHL average is above .800 and the Leafs are below .500.

No, the discussion you jumped into was about a specific sample. But yes, the NHL average SV% in OT is ~0.850, and the Leafs in that sample were getting 0.467, which is much worse.

Newsflash for the teams that win in OT. Their sv% can only be nothing because they get no shots on goal against

What are you even talking about? You do realize that OT isn't first shot wins, right? Goalies are allowed to and do make saves in OT.

 

[Sniper99]

IMO a conservative, possession oriented strategy with the puck is the greatest thing we lack in 3v3 OT, but urgency to defend the middle of the ice is #2. The other team is going to get chances if they have the puck, that's a given, but the one thing you absolutely cannot let them do is walk up the middle. We do all sorts of big lazy turns, leaving the middle of the ice wide open, as Marner does here.

It's certainly not just Marner - one I posted on the first page, from our OT loss to the Sharks a few weeks ago, has both Nylander making a very impatient/high risk/low reward turnover, AND the entire team completely vacating the middle of the ice:



If there are 2 cardinal rules of 3v3 OT, they are:

- When you get the puck, be patient and protect possession at all costs. Only take risks for GREAT scoring chances
- If you lose the puck, protect the middle of the ice at all costs

We do neither, and it's not just 1 or 2 players, it's all of them.

as soon as Nylander made that bonehead pass I knew it was over. Dont think i even watched the goal just shut off the tv. we suck at 3 on 3 ot.

 

[Menzinger]

I think it's always a distinct part of TOR's system: they cheat.

They leave the defensive zone early, they pinch, and they try stretch passes.

Last night's 3vs3 OT. was an example of that and it went sideways once it was turned over. JT made a bad play, but it seems to me that it could be part of the cheating game plan.

Though in a winner take all 5min OT what's the point of playing conservative?

The Leafs don't have any particular advantage in the shootout which tends to normalize as close to a coon flip anyways.