WCQF: Winnipeg Jets Vs. Colorado Avalanche (COL lead 3-1)

[WetcoastOrca]

Jets winning with Helly having an off game was huge. I expect the goaltending advantage to swing pretty strongly in the Jets favour as the series progresses. Avalanche are going to have to play much better if they want to have a shot.

 

[Jaytee]

Conventional wisdom before the series started was that if the Jets were to win, it would be by playing tight, low-scoring defensive games, and that if it turned into a shootout, the Jets didn't have a chance.

So naturally, Game 1 was a shootout from the start, but the Jets won. Now just watch...Colorado's first win in the series will probably be by a score of 2-1, because in the playoffs, nothing makes sense.

 

[Eltuna]

Shortly after the Jets 6th goal, when the score was 6-3 for the Jets, the Jets xGF% in all situations was 44.4%. In most circumstances that's not worthy of a 3 goal lead, but that's a winnable game for a team with elite goaltending. There were peaks and troughs to the game, but score effects certainly impacted the final ~13 minutes of the game.

I think that's what the other Jets fan is referring too with the score effects thing. Despite your long-winded (and good faith explanation), he does not appear to have misread the chart. The game really was close and the 3 goal lead almost certainly impacted the Avs ability to pile on xGF at the end of the game.

If one looks at that chart and doesn’t think it tells a story of one team dominating the other I don’t think they understand the data enough is what I mean or have a lot of experience with stats.

Even when trying to look at the most beneficial window where the Jets were closest to the Avs which was also very short in duration they still had a xGF% similar to what the Blackhawks had this year.

There is no way a team could continue to get out chanced 2:1 over an entire series and come out ahead, luckily for the Jets I don’t think they will continue to give up 40 scoring chances in one game, it is so unlike them to give up so many chances against

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

If one looks at that chart and doesn’t think it tells a story of one team dominating the other I don’t think they understand the data enough is what I mean or have a lot of experience with stats.

Even when trying to look at the most beneficial window where the Jets were closest to the Avs which was also very short in duration they still had a xGF% similar to what the Blackhawks had this year.

There is no way a team could continue to get out chanced 2:1 over an entire series and come out ahead, luckily for the Jets I don’t think they will continue to give up 40 scoring chances in one game, it is so unlike them to give up so many chances against

Do you believe in score effects at all though?

At the moment of it being 6-3, the Jets were being outplayed, but nowhere near what the final statistics make it seem like.

Score effects definitely contributed to the Avs piling up basically 1.8xG while the Jets got 0. The Jets were up by 3 goals with ~12 minutes left, it's the definition of score effects.

Anyway, doesn't matter anymore. 1-0 Jets, new game tomorrow and I expect it to look very different in terms of style of game.

 

[Bleedred]

Kuemper would be killing it if he was on the Avs now.

He really killed it in the 2022 playoffs when they won the cup in spite of him.

He's really killing it on Washington right now.

''But Washington is bad tho! You don't understand! The Avs aren't as bad as them!''

Evidently not bad enough for 30 year old mostly career AHL journeyman Charlie Lindgren.

Kuemper is just a roasted marshmallow at this point.

 

[AvStock]

He really killed it in the 2022 playoffs when they won the cup in spite of him.

He's really killing it on Washington right now.

''But Washington is bad tho! You don't understand! The Avs aren't as bad as them!''

Evidently not bad enough for 30 year old mostly career AHL journeyman Charlie Lindgren.

Kuemper is just a roasted marshmallow at this point.

Show me on the doll where Darcy Kuemper touched you

 

[Bleedred]

Show me on the doll where Darcy Kuemper touched you

Show me your driver's license.

I need proof that you are not Darcy Kuemper

 

[NYR94]

 

[Eltuna]

Do you believe in score effects at all though?

At the moment of it being 6-3, the Jets were being outplayed, but nowhere near what the final statistics make it seem like.

Score effects definitely contributed to the Avs piling up basically 1.8xG while the Jets got 0. The Jets were up by 3 goals with ~12 minutes left, it's the definition of score effects.

Anyway, doesn't matter anymore. 1-0 Jets, new game tomorrow and I expect it to look very different in terms of style of game.

You can filter based on all scores within 1 and played at 5 on 5, the same results occur of about a 2:1 advantage for shots, chances, and expected goals throughout the game. The worst Avs player was Parise with a xGF% of 58%, everyone else was quite a bit higher

Agreed that at the end of the day it isn’t the be all end all, especially as it’s unlikely the Jets continue to play like that, they haven’t been that team all year so no reason to think it continues. If it does I do expect the Avs to win the series even if the Avs continue to have goaltending issues though (which they probably will).

 

[AvalancheRy]

IMO Avs have to take the next one to have a chance. It's pretty clear they are just playing firewagon hockey and hope to outscore teams. Their defensive structure is awful, including forwards. It frankly has been for years, excluding 2022, when they had a super team. Our defense has no clue what to do with the puck and results to mindlessly bashing it up the boards. IMO, it's a testament to how good our players are that we are even in the playoffs to begin with, but hopefully this exposes some of the flaws in our system.

 

[Flair Hay]

I wouldn’t put a whole lot of stalk into that conference. He knows he’s dealing with a goalie having a mental breakdown and he’s not one to call players out. He very well could go with George again but I’d absolutely not base the assumption on what he says in a presser.

Honestly, most Avs fans would take that defensive effort every game if they can push like that offensively. They have the horses that are perfectly suited to that style but haven’t been super consistent this year. The game they played defensively last night only becomes an issue if they can’t push the pace offensively.

Okay that's cool to hear the other perspective on this. It felt like the Avs controlled play like crazy but made some costly mistakes. Always hard to say what's on the goalie and what's not.

It didn't feel like Avs goalie had any huge softies, just 7 goals is 7 goals and they needed several of those saves?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Sure, I won't disagree with that. But playing behind a team that's not interested in playing defense sure won't make anything better. You can twist it and say that if the Avs Dcore showed up the Avs would've won this game easily as well. It's a team game and Georgiev sure isn't the only one to blame for this loss.

The Avs gave up 16 scoring chances, 7 high danger chances, and 23 shots all game… there were some mistakes but that’s as good a recipe for success there is for a goalie.

 

[PAZ]

This comes up every year… teams gambling on goaltending. It blows me away that you take the time to build a club and then gamble on some shaky goalie. You’d think Colorado of all places- a team that immediately won after trading for Patrick Roy - would know this.

Yes, you might be able to get by and maybe it happens this year but what a risk to take. I just don’t understand this type of gamble.

Because good goalies cost money and there is still no guarantee they play well.

There wasn't a clear upgrade on George this TDL - there were a bunch of goalies that may have been better, but no clearcut goalie. The only one was Saros and Nashville was on a heater.

And when Jake Allen costs a 2nd, it doesn't make sense to pay a 1st+ for a goalie that may be better than George.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Because good goalies cost money and there is still no guarantee they play well.

How is that different from any player?

There wasn't a clear upgrade on George this TDL - there were a bunch of goalies that may have been better, but no clearcut goalie. The only one was Saros and Nashville was on a heater.

Why would you wait until the trade deadline?

And when Jake Allen costs a 2nd, it doesn't make sense to pay a 1st+ for a goalie that may be better than George.

So get someone better

 

[Saitama]

Lol, watch Georgiev play out of his mind next game and confuse the hell out of everyone! Hope it doesn't happen obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised at all!

 

[Avocado Coolranch]

I am extremely impressed by MacKinnon. What a difference maker on the ice that can win you games alone.

That being said I was equally impressed by Lowry and his ability to match up with that line and even pot in 2 goals. Having a captain that plays on the third line and is not some flashy superstar, there were skeptics... but he really brings it when the team needs it most and that really shows his ability to lead. After all, Hockey is a team sport. When he stepped up to fight Reeves during the must win game against the Wild last season to squeak into the playoffs, I knew he had what it takes to be the Jets captain.

 

[Eyeseeing]

That game was a fantastic game for fans to enjoy.
I’m sure both coaches had a lot to say about it afterwards.
I bet the games going forward will be quite different.
No idea how this is going to play out.
As a Jets fan I’m hoping for 6 game series win but that Avs team has firepower in spades.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

Lol, watch Georgiev play out of his mind next game and confuse the hell out of everyone! Hope it doesn't happen obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised at all!

0-0 going to OT and Mac sets up Adam Lowry for the winner.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

 

[PAZ]

How is that different from any player?

Players are more predictable at every level. There's a reason why the phrase 'goalies are voodoo' is so prevalent.

Why would you wait until the trade deadline?

Because Georgiev had a solid season prior and had a patches of solid play up until the New Year.

So get someone better

Name a goalie that was available and a clear upgrade over Georgiev.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Players are more predictable at every level. There's a reason why the phrase 'goalies are voodoo' is so prevalent.

If you don’t want to invest in a decent goalie, you’re getting a box of chocolates. If the Avs want to risk it, cool. But it seems pretty dumb to build that great team and then have a mystery box in net.

Because Georgiev had a solid season prior and had a patches of solid play up until the New Year.

Cool. I guess there’s nothing to worry about then.

Name a goalie that was available and a clear upgrade over Georgiev.

Boston has two, Islanders have a couple of decent ones… those are just off the top of my head.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

If you don’t want to invest in a decent goalie, you’re getting a box of chocolates. If the Avs want to risk it, cool. But it seems pretty dumb to build that great team and then have a mystery box in net.

Cool. I guess there’s nothing to worry about then.

Boston has two, Islanders have a couple of decent ones… those are just off the top of my head.

Nashville has 2. Of course none of them would have been available. Markstrom would have been an upgrade if the idiot owner had allowed him to be traded.

 

[PAZ]

Boston has two, Islanders have a couple of decent ones… those are just off the top of my head.

Pretty clear that none of them were actually available, at least not for non-outrageous prices considering there were 5+ teams in the goalie market and none of them were able to figure out a trade.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Pretty clear that none of them were actually available, at least not for non-outrageous prices considering there were 5+ teams in the goalie market and none of them were able to figure out a trade.

There are always trades available. But you might not want to wait until the deadline to do it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nashville has 2. Of course none of them would have been available. Markstrom would have been an upgrade if the idiot owner had allowed him to be traded.

Matkstrom’s a solid goalie. I can’t see why he wouldn’t have been available. They dealt off other players.