WCQF: Winnipeg Jets Vs. Colorado Avalanche (COL lead 3-1)

[nothingbeatshockey]

Don't have a dog in this fight. What a fun game to watch. Speed and high level talent on both teams - two things my Caps are in desperate need of.

Hoping for 7 games like this.

Avalanche GM made a huge mistake getting rid of Darcy Kuemper

Not as big as the mistake the Caps made in signing him to a big $$ long term contract.

 

[Alex Jones]

Avalanche GM made a huge mistake getting rid of Darcy Kuemper

Kumper had a lower save percentage this season and makes 2m more.

 

[Andy6]

MacKinnon and McDavid are the scariest players to face IMO. And last night, he was doing his thing.

The Jets last night were not good at all (also IMO) defensively, it was so uncharacteristic of their play this year generally. This is not a style they will win the series with. They need to get their shit together defensively and also stay out of the penalty box because the PK is awful.

Colorado had shown none of this in the three games they played this year, which turned out to be an advantage for them. But their high-pressure play, while impressive and effective, also got them into trouble over and over, and the thing with the Jets’ depth is that they always have forwards on the ice with the skill to capitalize on turnovers. My guess is that game 2 will look nothing like game 1, though. Both teams have every reason to re-think almost everything.

 

[Eltuna]

ooooo good one.

Just ignored the rest of it cause you didn't like the answer? At 6-3/7-4 was the xG not much closer then it finished because of score effects?

If the xG is close is that not a huge win for the Jets because Helle is miles better than any of the Avs options in net?

I think you are reading the chart incorrectly, the Avs had the much better stats the entire game. Think about these stats as a ratio rather than looking at the distance between the two numbers.

For example the distance between 2 and 1 wouldn’t look that big on the chart but its the same ratio as 8 to 4. The distance will always increase as the game progresses but the ratio stays pretty constant throughout the game

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I think you are reading the chart incorrectly, the Avs had the much better stats the entire game. Think about these stats as a ratio rather than looking at the distance between the two numbers.

For example the distance between 2 and 1 wouldn’t look that big on the chart but its the same ratio as 8 to 4. The distance will always increase as the game progresses but the ratio stays pretty constant throughout the game

Uhh.

Doesn't the ratio between those two spots look a little different?

 

[Eltuna]

Uhh.
View attachment 857371

Doesn't the ratio between those two spots look a little different?

It’s much less steep than you would think by just looking at the distance between the two numbers, don’t think of cumulative charts the same way you would a chart using ratios, they can be a lot trickier to read.

For example at the 30 minute mark the Avs had about the exact same level of domination that they did at the end of the game.

Consider if this game was 3 hours instead of 1 hour, at that point the Avs would have an expected goals of about 15 compared to the jets of 7 assuming the game kept being played the way it was all game. The chart would look crazy disproportional in this case but the ratio would be the same as any other point of the game.

 

[BoneDocUK]

MacKinnon was fantastic, and showed again why he is the MVP this year.

I do agree with the rest of your post though.

He's an astonishing player. Power forward with high-end everything else and one of very few players in the world who can make elite acceleration and separation seem... inevitable.

Actually prefer his game at this level to McDs -- perfect blend of wonder and terror and pure adrenaline to watch, even against your team.

 

[Atoyot]

Mackinnon was the best player on the ice last night.

Manson was the worst player. Yeesh.

 

[Eltuna]

Manson was the worst player. Yeesh.

Manson was pretty rough, Pionk had a pretty bad game as well I thought. I thought Mackinnon/Nuke were the best Avs forwards and Ehlers/Lowry were the best Jets

 

[jokesondee]

Manson was the worst player. Yeesh.

Cant stand that punk. Hope Lowry takes a round out of him at some point.

 

[Atoyot]

Manson was pretty rough, Pionk had a pretty bad game as well I thought. I thought Mackinnon/Nuke were the best Avs forwards and Ehlers/Lowry were the best Jets

Yeah Pionk was pretty awful as well. Lowry was a beast. Just seems like every game the Jets play against the Avalanche Manson gifts them at least 2 goals.

 

[Eltuna]

Yeah Pionk was pretty awful as well. Lowry was a beast. Just seems like every game the Jets play against the Avalanche Manson gifts them at least 2 goals.

Ehlers was sneaky good too, his pass to Pionk near the front of the net was a guaranteed goal if Pionk didn’t straight up miss the puck

 

[Neil Racki]

Havent seen much of the Jets this regular season

Ho Le Chit .. yall fly out there

That was a fun game to watch as a neutral

 

[Puckstop40]

They made many big mistakes. Time to wake up now and realize that the game is not only offense.

But I agree, Georgiev was their worst player. It's just wrong to put it all on him when the team in front of him made mistake after mistake.

The Avs D structure needs to be better, but Georgiev has been horrible the entire season. That’s why the entire fan base is lashing out. He can’t make a big save. The Avs literally have to be mistake free or the puck ends up in the back of their net, which has been a problem the entire season, not just this game. Average goaltending and the Avs win this game. The Jets and Helly (not sure if that’s his nickname or not) are not likely to give up six goals again. Blown opportunity.

 

[jokesondee]

Havent seen much of the Jets this regular season

Ho Le Chit .. yall fly out there

That was a fun game to watch as a neutral

The Avalanche fly faster. The Jets want nothing to do with that type of game. Need to tighten up big time.

 

[Bleedred]

I wish I could find that Avs fan last year on here that declared the Rangers traded the wrong goalie. Only because Georgiev had what is looking like by far a career year, behind the same team where a 30-something, mostly career European league goalie with two bad hips and two bad knees, who also didn't play for over an entire year not too long before that, also played passable.

While apparently ignoring that Georgiev was also mediocre at best the same year the ''Wrong goalie the Rangers did keep'' had that out of this world season. Which was only the year before they acquired him.

Maybe that poster can negotiate with the Rangers on behalf of not only the Avalanche, but rivals of the Rangers that they did in fact trade the wrong goalie, and see if they could get Shesterkin over there while dumping JAGeorgiev back on the Rangers. That would sure be excellent for everyone but the Rangers.

 

[Bleedred]

Avalanche GM made a huge mistake getting rid of Darcy Kuemper

Ummm, what?

That's right up there with the ''Rangers traded the wrong goalie'' comment that an Avs fan made last year.

Have you seen Kuemper this year? He lost his starting job a longggggg time ago to some 30 year old mostly career AHL goalie, who is only in his second full season in the NHL this year.

For all the slagging I'm doing on Georgiev, Kuemper is worse than him at this point. Kuemper's contract is also worse and Kuemper is also considerably older and much more of an injury case than Georgiev.

I'd like to see Kuemper even survive 62 games this past season like Georgiev just played, when he can't even stay on the ice.

 

[Spilot23]

Manson was the worst player. Yeesh.

Manson went for the best player in like the first 6-8 minutes of the game to the worst damn.

 

[AvStock]

Ummm, what?

That's right up there with the ''Rangers traded the wrong goalie'' comment that an Avs fan made last year.

Have you seen Kuemper this year? He lost his starting job a longggggg time ago to some 30 year old mostly career AHL goalie, who is only in his second full season in the NHL this year.

For all the slagging I'm doing on Georgiev, Kuemper is worse than him at this point. Kuemper's contract is also worse and Kuemper is also considerably older and much more of an injury case than Georgiev.

I'd like to see Kuemper even survive 62 games this past season like Georgiev just played, when he can't even stay on the ice.

Kuemper would be killing it if he was on the Avs now.

 

[Huffer]

That game was hard on the heart.

Have to think both teams play with more structure in game 2. I'd be surprised to see another scorefest.

 

[bossram]

Manson was the worst player. Yeesh.

Watching some of the clips again, good lord was Manson awful. Worse than Georgiev. Manson absolutely cost them the game. Directly caused at least 3 goals against. For a big, "tough", "physical" defensive defenseman, he was absolutely abysmal at defending the crease. Couldn't make a retrieval under pressure to save his life. Awful.

I was always of the mind that they should have not re-signed him. Even Bednar believes this, as when fully healthy, Manson plays third pair minutes at even-strength. The real issue with Girard out is that they are forced to play Manson more.

If Girard can go for G2, I think the Avs have to roll Toews/Makar, Girard/Walker and basically bench the 3rd pair.

The Avs D structure needs to be better, but Georgiev has been horrible the entire season. That’s why the entire fan base is lashing out. He can’t make a big save. The Avs literally have to be mistake free or the puck ends up in the back of their net, which has been a problem the entire season, not just this game. Average goaltending and the Avs win this game. The Jets and Helly (not sure if that’s his nickname or not) are not likely to give up six goals again. Blown opportunity.

Georgiev was terrible, yes. But if Manson could like, cover a single guy in the DZ or make like, even one single positive contribution in the DZ, the Avs win handily.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

It’s much less steep than you would think by just looking at the distance between the two numbers, don’t think of cumulative charts the same way you would a chart using ratios, they can be a lot trickier to read.

For example at the 30 minute mark the Avs had about the exact same level of domination that they did at the end of the game.

Consider if this game was 3 hours instead of 1 hour, at that point the Avs would have an expected goals of about 15 compared to the jets of 7 assuming the game kept being played the way it was all game. The chart would look crazy disproportional in this case but the ratio would be the same as any other point of the game.

Except at about 50 mins it looks like it was roughly 3? - 2.16.

The last 10 minutes the Avs made it 4.83-2.16. It was not that big of a gap until the Jets were up 3 goals.

Jets need to be better, but until it was 6-3 it was at least relatively close in terms of xG and by my eye-test. Jets had a good pushback in the 2nd to start of 3rd.

 

[TommyKillian]

It’s much less steep than you would think by just looking at the distance between the two numbers, don’t think of cumulative charts the same way you would a chart using ratios, they can be a lot trickier to read.

For example at the 30 minute mark the Avs had about the exact same level of domination that they did at the end of the game.

Consider if this game was 3 hours instead of 1 hour, at that point the Avs would have an expected goals of about 15 compared to the jets of 7 assuming the game kept being played the way it was all game. The chart would look crazy disproportional in this case but the ratio would be the same as any other point of the game.

Shortly after the Jets 6th goal, when the score was 6-3 for the Jets, the Jets xGF% in all situations was 44.4%. In most circumstances that's not worthy of a 3 goal lead, but that's a winnable game for a team with elite goaltending. There were peaks and troughs to the game, but score effects certainly impacted the final ~13 minutes of the game.

I think that's what the other Jets fan is referring too with the score effects thing. Despite your long-winded (and good faith explanation), he does not appear to have misread the chart. The game really was close and the 3 goal lead almost certainly impacted the Avs ability to pile on xGF at the end of the game.

 

[Ararana]

After watching Bednar's press conference last night, I wouldn't be shocked if Georgiev was back in net for Game 2. My condolences Avs fans.

I mean... most Avs fans called this before the series.

I didn't expect the Avs to outplay the Jets that badly in game 1, especially in their barn when they should have all the running momentum. But the Avs outplaying the Jets but losing because of Georgiev was the common theory going into this. No surprise if Bednar holds onto Georgiev longer than he should, it's been the story all season.

The biggest surprise from game 1 IMO was Hellebuyck letting in 6.

He probably won't but Bedar has no excuses not to go with Annunen if he's healthy enough to play. What's the worst case scenario with Annunen? He lets in 7 goals!?! Oh no, that would be embarrassing...

 

[T REX]

The Avs D structure needs to be better, but Georgiev has been horrible the entire season. That’s why the entire fan base is lashing out. He can’t make a big save. The Avs literally have to be mistake free or the puck ends up in the back of their net, which has been a problem the entire season, not just this game. Average goaltending and the Avs win this game. The Jets and Helly (not sure if that’s his nickname or not) are not likely to give up six goals again. Blown opportunity.

This is extremely profound. Great post.