This is a very good analysis.
On the opposite side of the coin, this is a Blues team that cannot beat a Kings team that has some of its top D Men Injured and a Kopitar that is playing injured. I think that says a lot about how weak this St. Louis team is if they cannot capitalize. Imagine what this series would be like if these guys were healthy....It would be very different.
However, this is the series we have. So looking at it, First, we have taken some stupid penalties that we have yet to pay for. Most teams can make you pay on a PP but St. Louis is pretty inept here even with us playing with players who are not remotely ready for the playoffs (Ellerby, Muzzin). It's different if you have forwards who are weak, but our D men are the backbone of our structure and St. Louis still can't score when it is weakened.
Second, St. Louis cannot seem to get the puck on net for quality chances on five on five. They don't seem to generate a lot of firepower. Leopold and B-Meister are not that great and while they have a good forecheck, they appear to be capitalizing on our Defensive lapses as opposed to truly penetrating our Blue Line.
Third, St. Louis lacks composure and it looks easy to get under their skin. While they do not take too many bone headed penalties they do lose their cool easily when we do score. If we can get a garbage goal and play with more uptempo on breaking out of the zone, then this team is breakable. On top of that, if our D can stifle and Quick can post another shut out, he will be in their heads and then it's total mind game. A 2-0 game would eat at them.
Fourth: You pretty much hit on the head when talking about our breakout as that decreases our lapses and increases our offensive chances.
What this really comes down into IMHO is that St. Louis is trying to exploit our defensive lapses created by injury and lack of experience with two D Men. If we can get Green back, and stabilize our Blue Line, this series should swing back our way because it will limit their chances and shore up our N. South as Green has more experience in our system. Sutter is minimizing the gap by playing 7 D Men now because he is limiting Muzzin and Ellerby's ice time with the insertion of A Mart.