WCF: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers (EDM Leads 3-2)

[SeanAveryTheGreatOne]

Who y'all got?!
​

Dallas Stars (1C) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2P)​

Western Conference Final

Game 1: Oilers at Stars -- May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 2: Oilers at Stars -- May 25, 8 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 3: Stars at Oilers -- May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 4: Stars at Oilers -- May 29, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
+ Game 5: Oilers at Stars -- May 31, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, TVAS)
+ Game 6: Stars at Oilers -- June 2, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, TVAS)
+ Game 7: Oilers at Stars -- June 4, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
+ if necessary ​

Click to read more...

 

[Just Rude]

the Oilers didn't "benefit"...if anything, the Canucks benefitted from a very poor showing from Skinner

Of course they did. Skinner is not very good. You don't have to be an Oiler fan to understand goaltending is by far their most glaring weakness. Skinner/Pickard/Soup are the only options. They are built to outscore their problems in net, and they do it well.

Edmonton didn't have another option their roster. Vancouver did, but he was hurt.

...in the last 4 games, the Canucks held the lead for like 30 seconds

Which is why I said the Oil deserved to win. They were clearly the better team, especially in the latter half of the series.

the Canucks could've had a combination of Demko, Hasek, or Patrick Roy in net and it wouldn't matter because never held a lead for the goalie

The Oilers were the better team. The Canucks took it to 7 games without their Vezina finalist goalie. Both of these things can be true.

Anyway, we're beating a dead horse. We agree to disagree. The WCF is a new series. Should be a fun one to watch.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Comparing 13 games vs Vegas/Colorado with 12 games vs LA/Vancouver (no Demko) instead of looking at the entire 82-game season is certainly..... one way to look at it.

Using the 82 game sample shows these teams are close.

 

[oconnor9sean]

Benn would never drop thee gloves with Nurse. Benn only fights guys that are not tough

Benn has one of the most impressive fight logs for a captain/skill player in recent NHL history.

Iginla, Thornton, Wood, Anderson, Manson, Maroon, Zadorov...

Using the 82 game sample shows these teams are close.

That's my point. The OP said Edmonton had a "huge" special teams advantage.

 

[bombers15]

It's nice of Dallas and the league to even let us play, given that the series is apparently already over. Will be nice to stay in shape. Training camp is just around the corner, after all.

 

[HugginThePost]

I don't know why exactly, but I have a feeling the Oilers are going to win and they're going to win fairly easily.

Honestly, I don't know why everyone here is acting like Dallas is the 1977 Canadiens or something. In total, Dallas had 1 more regulation win than Edmonton this past season, and after Nov. 15th the Oilers were the better team overall.

The obvious question mark is Edmonton's goaltending issues. But if they can just get league-average goaltending, I think they're fine.

Dallas is a really deep team in terms of having a balanced attack, so that depth is always good in playoffs. But if McDavid is healthy (that warm Texan air maybe will help his perpetual cold / Flu symptoms), I like the chances of he and Drai vs. Dallas's 65-point scorers, some of whom are past their prime.

I think you answered your own question.........

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It's nice of Dallas and the league to even let us play, given that the series is apparently already over. Will be nice to stay in shape. Training camp is just around the corner, after all.

Most Dallas fans are very nuanced about their team. The other fanbases make it seem like the '96 Red Wings.

Also Stars fans, no serious Oilers fan would say we have an advantage in net or would win the series in less than 6 games.

 

[oconnor9sean]

It's nice of Dallas and the league to even let us play, given that the series is apparently already over. Will be nice to stay in shape. Training camp is just around the corner, after all.

95% of the extreme overconfidence in Dallas in this thread towards the Oilers is from Vancouver and Toronto fans, FWIW.

 

[HugginThePost]

Prediction: Dallas loses game 1, because they have in every series since the 2020 finals. Oilers fans start actually thinking they'll win the series (because right now it's all false confidence). Then Dallas goes on to win the next 4.

Does anyone actually think that the Oilers have looked good these playoffs? I've yet to see a game of theirs where I thought, "this is a good team". Obviously they have some high end talent, but this isn't basketball where those players alone can win championships, depth does. Add on the fact that defense wins championships, and Oilers don't have that or goaltending. The ONLY thing Dallas can be slightly concerned about is special teams. At worst, Dallas is 6.

This is no disrespect towards the Oilers, Dallas is just that good this year.

They looked very good in Game 5 against Vancouver and good the first two periods of Game 6.

The problem is Skinner. The problem is always going to be Skinner.

 

[Elysian]

Is there any scenario where Pavelski could be scratched? Having not watched many Stars games, is his game better than his recent playoff stats indicate?

He scored last series so no chance anymore.

 

[North Cole]

Your current bottom 6 (including Perry as the 13th forward) has a combined 2 goals and 8 points.

The bottom 6 by 5v5 ice time is (greatest to least):

[xGF%, HDCF%, p/60]
Foegele (125m) [50.57, 47.5, 0.48]
Holloway [51.43, 51.22, 1.91]
Janmark [48.62, 51.43, 1.74]
Perry [54.27, 59.26, 0]
Henrique (line 1) [48.65, 62.96, 1.47]
Ryan (65m) [37.9, 40.91, 0.92]

Players who rotate in
Brown (49m) [53.82, 66.67, 1.22]
Carrick (42m) [36.51, 33.33, 1.4]

Perry had good analytics but ultimately 0.00 p/60 in a results based business got him scratched. I'm also not sure how much of that those analytical results were Holloway carrying his corpse around, since he's showed extremely well in top line minutes the last game a half.

As with all Oiler advanced stats, there's some mud since injuries usually result in a guy moving up to play with McDavid or Drai; that cuts both ways as the Drai back injury meant he took a spot beside McDavid for a bit, so the 2nd line had to actually work in some of those minutes. Wouldn't call it a traditional 2nd line without Drai at C.

I would agree with the assessment the bottom 6 is underrated. You say they have only 8 points, but in GF%, only Ryan, Janmark, and Carrick are sub 50%. So they give up very little the other way. Henrique is negative too but he was McDavids winger when healthy, so TOI being low is due to injury, rather than usage. Most of them are losing the overall CF% battle, but easily win HDCF%. Which I think explains why they are a little lagging in xGF% but overall show well in actual goal shares. Especially when LA had 2 or 3 games of throwing shots from all over the ice.

Our bottom 6 is very good at breaking even, which isn't going to win games, but more importantly isn't going to lose them either. The team is constructed to tread water until two of the best forwards in the league break it open. Given our net special teams is between 120-130, that's more than enough to win games assuming the goalie doesn't give up 2 or 3 freebies. As with the other series, this will come down to whether 5kinner can approach 0.900 or not.

 

[iCanada]

95% of the extreme overconfidence in Dallas in this thread towards the Oilers is from Vancouver and Toronto fans, FWIW.

Trust me when I say, we know.

Looking forward to some good hockey, cheers brother.

And hopefully an Oilers win to keep my childhood demons away. Although I will say - I don't think it's a coincidence that the one year we beat you guys was the year that McJesus the Savior was born. One might almost say us winning this series was signaled and foretold by the hockey gods some 27 years ago.

Hallowed be his game.

 

[Elysian]

It's nice of Dallas and the league to even let us play, given that the series is apparently already over. Will be nice to stay in shape. Training camp is just around the corner, after all.

Stars in 1

 

[Skolman]

95% of the extreme overconfidence in Dallas in this thread towards the Oilers is from Vancouver and Toronto fans, FWIW.

The cream of the crop when it comes to NHL fanbases...

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Benn has one of the most impressive fight logs for a captain/skill player in recent NHL history.

Iginla, Thornton, Wood, Anderson, Manson, Maroon, Zadorov...


That's my point. The OP said Edmonton had a "huge" special teams advantage.

I’m talking about everything.

Not special teams

 

[HugginThePost]

Probably Dallas. But if you factor in safety and maintenance we'll make more money long term.

I mean why shouldn't they be mad. It's the Knights Gary given right to be in at least the conference final every year

Meh, don't be bitter that the Knight's GM has a set of balls and doesn't sit around and evaluate for years on end. They are all in to win it every year, nothing wrong with that.

And spare me the "cheaters" argument. They have done nothing wrong according to the league rules. This again goes back to having the stones to go all in.

 

[Skolman]

If Skinner ends the series with a sv% above .900, the Oilers win the series.

 

[iCanada]

Stars in 1

Oilers in 9.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Of course they did. Skinner is not very good. You don't have to be an Oiler fan to understand goaltending is by far their most glaring weakness. Skinner/Pickard/Soup are the only options. They are built to outscore their problems in net, and they do it well.

Edmonton didn't have another option their roster. Vancouver did, but he was hurt.



Which is why I said the Oil deserved to win. They were clearly the better team, especially in the latter half of the series.




The Oilers were the better team. The Canucks took it to 7 games without their Vezina finalist goalie. Both of these things can be true.

Anyway, we're beating a dead horse. We agree to disagree. The WCF is a new series. Should be a fun one to watch.

Actually from what I was reading DeSmith was healthy from the start of the second round on. Vancouver just stuck with Silovs. Which is understandable since he wasn't hurting them.

 

[Elysian]

Oilers in 9.

Bold

 

[Canovin]

Skinner needs to play at .910

 

[Just Rude]

Actually from what I was reading DeSmith was healthy from the start of the second round on. Vancouver just stuck with Silovs. Which is understandable since he wasn't hurting them.

100%. And they should have after the way he played vs. Nashville.

To be clear, Edmonton didn't win because of Silovs, or because Demko didn't play. But Demko being out hurt Vancouver, along with a myriad of other factors (i.e. four shots almost halfway through a Game 7, and the complete no-show in Game 6). Edmonton dominated the last few games.

The better team won that series. I don't think anyone could argue that.

 

[Divine]

It's nice of Dallas and the league to even let us play, given that the series is apparently already over. Will be nice to stay in shape. Training camp is just around the corner, after all.

Edmonton was heavy favourites against both LA and Vancouver and won both. Now they're not.

So far there's only been one upset this playoffs (based on odds) and that was NYR over Carolina. Every other series the favourite has won.

Can Edmonton win? Yes. Are they expected to win? No.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Edmonton was heavy favourites against both LA and Vancouver and won both. Now they're not.

So far there's only been one upset this playoffs (based on odds) and that was NYR over Carolina. Every other series the favourite has won.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1793269977149014223

Guess we're in good shape then!

 

[Kcb12345]

Edmonton was heavy favourites against both LA and Vancouver and won both. Now they're not.

So far there's only been one upset this playoffs (based on odds) and that was NYR over Carolina. Every other series the favourite has won.

Can Edmonton win? Yes. Are they expected to win? No.

According to a lot of the analytics guys, Oilers are still the favorites in this series apparently

 

[Divine]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1793269977149014223

Guess we're in good shape then!

I was using fanduel when I was talking about stats. I don't know how accurate the Athletic one was going back.

FanDuel had the favourites winning every series except NYR-Carolina.

FanDuel Sportsbook

sportsbook.fanduel.com

The FanDuel round 3 favourites are Dallas and Florida.