Value of: Vladislav Gavrikov at TDL

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It's true there are only so many 1sts to go around at the TDL but the players you named are all forwards.

If a team is seriously looking to add a defenseman, Gavrikov would be at or near the top of the list.

Yes but all those forwards are all difference makers, and I didn't even mention Horvat.

My team is rumored to be in on Gavrikov so I'm going to use them as an example.

ROR is getting a 1st because he's a guy that can put a team like Toronto over the top and I do believe that. I believe ROR can put a team like Toronto over the top because adding ROR would allow the Leafs if they chose to do so to run.

Matthews, Tavares, ROR down the middle and that would be unmatched, that would allow the Leafs to put ROR against a teams top center and allow Matthews and Tavares to go against the 2nd and 3rd line, Matchups they would win.

On the other hand Gavrikov on a healthy Leafs defense is likely on the 3rd pair with Giordano.

Now a Giordano-Gavrikov pair would make make the Leafs better no question about it but do you honestly think a 3rd pair upgrade is putting the Leafs over the top?

Do you truly think Gavrikov is that guy?. Do you see him as the difference maker?

 

[Crede777]

Yes but all those forwards are all difference makers, and I didn't even mention Horvat.

My team is rumored to be in on Gavrikov so I'm going to use them as an example.

ROR is getting a 1st because he's a guy that can put a team like Toronto over the top and I do believe that. I believe ROR can put a team like Toronto over the top because adding ROR would allow the Leafs if they chose to do so to run.

Matthews, Tavares, ROR down the middle and that would be unmatched, that would allow the Leafs to put ROR against a teams top center and allow Matthews and Tavares to go against the 2nd and 3rd line, Matchups they would win.

On the other hand Gavrikov on a healthy Leafs defense is likely on the 3rd pair with Giordano.

Now a Giordano-Gavrikov pair would make make the Leafs better no question about it but do you honestly think a 3rd pair upgrade is putting the Leafs over the top?

Do you truly think Gavrikov is that guy?. Do you see him as the difference maker?

They are potential difference maker, but there will likely be a few teams at the TDL that aren't really looking for that at forward and really are only interested in adding to their defense.

Thus, Gavrikov's value is not really related to those other players' values. As the potential best defenseman available at the TDL, the price for him would be around a 1st.

From what you said about the Leafs, it doesn't really sound like they're serious about acquiring Gavrikov. There will be teams who view him as an upgrade to their 2nd pairing at the TDL and thus would pay more than a team who views him as being an upgrade to their 3rd pairing.

 

[Viqsi]

Okay well for me I don’t think the market for him will be huge as there is a lot of big fish on the market and not much cap space. I think he gets a 2nd and a prospect obviously you will use flordia as an example with Chariot. Maybe Gravkov is better but he doesn’t have the pedigree of bring a mediocre habs team to the Stanley cup final well playing 25-30 min a night. I think Flordia got desperate and teams won’t make the same mistake

Based on the bolded I suspect you might be assuming that the expected return of a 1st is also without any retention. That's not the case; at least for my part, I don't think we can get what we're after without max retention. But that's a nonissue for the Jackets in this case. And I frankly refuse to accept the notion that a decisive majority of deadline teams will be potentially so horribly cap-strapped that they can't fit the equivalent of a $1.4m AAV cap hit at the deadline. I mean, come on. Really.

* * *​

that's why there's this thing called draft pick conditions

if the Jackets want a first round pick, they'll get one from Gavrikov. I think Jarmo might want to target a young, close-to-NHL-ready kind of player instead, though.

Such a return would be nice but I think it's even more unlikely and rare. Damn near everybody going into the playoffs will have a mid-to-late 1st. Not everybody is going to have a young close-to-NHL-ready player that actually provides a skillset at a position we need.

 

[BFLO]

Buffalo should be interested in a player like Gavrikov, but not as a rental.

What's the cost for a sign and trade right now? Late first or equivalent prospect?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Buffalo should be interested in a player like Gavrikov, but not as a rental.

What's the cost for a sign and trade right now? Late first or equivalent prospect?

for an extended gavrikov? probably both. or, something around krebs+

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Based on the bolded I suspect you might be assuming that the expected return of a 1st is also without any retention. That's not the case; at least for my part, I don't think we can get what we're after without max retention. But that's a nonissue for the Jackets in this case. And I frankly refuse to accept the notion that a decisive majority of deadline teams will be potentially so horribly cap-strapped that they can't fit the equivalent of a $1.4m AAV cap hit at the deadline. I mean, come on. Really.

* * *​

Such a return would be nice but I think it's even more unlikely and rare. Damn near everybody going into the playoffs will have a mid-to-late 1st. Not everybody is going to have a young close-to-NHL-ready player that actually provides a skillset at a position we need.

Honestly looking from the leafs perspective even fitting in his 1.4 million dollar his would be a challenge.

 

[BFLO]

for an extended gavrikov? probably both. or, something around krebs+

What about a straight up Krebs for Gavrikov. No extension in place?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

What about a straight up Krebs for Gavrikov. No extension in place?

would be one of the few deals that cbj would probably be interested in without getting a 1st rounder back. depends on if krebs is definitely a center, though.

 

[Viqsi]

would be one of the few deals that cbj would probably be interested in without getting a 1st rounder back. depends on if krebs is definitely a center, though.

Enh. Depends also on whether or not Kekalainen really thinks Krebs is the sort of guy we need. Personally I'm a tad skeptical.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Enh. Depends also on whether or not Kekalainen really thinks Krebs is the sort of guy we need. Personally I'm a tad skeptical.

fair, but the idea of peyton krebs (skilled, fast, still very young, addresses the center position) works in a gavrikov trade. the "but does real life GM see the player that way?" thing is the obvious subtext to any HFB post.

jarmo's options in a gavrikov trade are:
A: late first round pick + buy-low guy + mid prospect
B: conditional (very) late first + young roster player
C: late first + conditional mid-round pick
D: young player with roughly first round value, closer to contributing but not there yet on a playoff team

the jackets are no longer in the 'accumulate assets' phase, and jarmo loves him some hockey trades, so D seemingly makes the most sense. could be a krebs, turcotte, holloway or someone else entirely.

 

[ViD]

Buffalo should be interested in a player like Gavrikov, but not as a rental.

What's the cost for a sign and trade right now? Late first or equivalent prospect?

I don’t think he will prefer to go to Buffalo long term, if he decides to test the free agency, he will likely go to a popular destination among Russian players (like NY, FL)

 

[horner]

At the deadline I'd offer 2023 1st + 2023 3rd from the Leafs.

Signed

 

[Figgy44]

I think the two teams have been linked before... What about something around Horvat and Gavrikov? Or is Horvat too old?

I assume both players extend on new team.

CBJ gets a centre they need. Vancouver works on fixing their blue line.

 

[Djp]

fair, but the idea of peyton krebs (skilled, fast, still very young, addresses the center position) works in a gavrikov trade. the "but does real life GM see the player that way?" thing is the obvious subtext to any HFB post.

jarmo's options in a gavrikov trade are:
A: late first round pick + buy-low guy + mid prospect
B: conditional (very) late first + young roster player
C: late first + conditional mid-round pick
D: young player with roughly first round value, closer to contributing but not there yet on a playoff team

the jackets are no longer in the 'accumulate assets' phase, and jarmo loves him some hockey trades, so D seemingly makes the most sense. could be a krebs, turcotte, holloway or someone else entirely.

much more likely….a 2nd+ 3rd/4th+ B prospect
the 2nd could become a conditional 1st if team made final 4.

a team that is a lock in the playoffs — they might trade their 1st. This depends greatly on who the team is and their recent pick trades.

 

[Viqsi]

I think the two teams have been linked before... What about something around Horvat and Gavrikov? Or is Horvat too old?

I assume both players extend on new team.

CBJ gets a centre they need. Vancouver works on fixing their blue line.

Gav could hypothetically be a part of a Horvat package but we'd almost certainly be adding to that. IDK if he's what Vancouver's after; I got the impression they wanted more RD.

 

[Viqsi]

much more likely….a 2nd+ 3rd/4th+ B prospect
the 2nd could become a conditional 1st if team made final 4.

a team that is a lock in the playoffs — they might trade their 1st. This depends greatly on who the team is and their recent pick trades.

Oh FFS. Will y'all just cut this shit out? The price is a mid-to-late 1st. That's non-negotiable. This variety of "BUT AKSHUALLY" babble is not going to change that. None of y'all will get anywhere trying to talk us into accepting being ripped off or going for quantity instead. It's not like we don't know how market dynamics work - we know some teams will choose to walk away instead (the Leafs seem like they might not go for it, for example). The price remains as stated.

 

[Figgy44]

Gav could hypothetically be a part of a Horvat package but we'd almost certainly be adding to that. IDK if he's what Vancouver's after; I got the impression they wanted more RD.

IIRC, the GM and POHO's official stance was that they wanted to rejig the defense. From the fans perspective, I think they believe the only move required is a top 4 RD. However, there's been some discussions about OEL being able to play RD if the LD was defensively responsible and perhaps targeting a good LD could make more sense.

The Canucks can solve a lot of problems on their blueline just by moving Oliver Ekman-Larsson over to the right side

I do not know if OEL has ever played RD. I just remember a few mentions that it could be an option. I believe acquiring someone like Gavrikov wouldn't be plan A, it would be more like a plan B or C or part of a bigger deal if the price of RD is just too high/the type of RD play style is in compatible for the Canucks.

I'm not completely in tune as to what the Canucks and CBJ are trying to do. I'm just curiously musing whether it could be a weird turn of events that could work out.

 

[calder candidate]

With retention he will get a 1st + 5th. He isn’t has proven has some of the other guys that removed in past years.

 

[ViD]

I think the two teams have been linked before... What about something around Horvat and Gavrikov? Or is Horvat too old?

I assume both players extend on new team.

CBJ gets a centre they need. Vancouver works on fixing their blue line.

We don’t need Horvat as a rental, this trade only makes sense with extension in place

 

[Toe Pick]

We don’t need Horvat as a rental, this trade only makes sense with extension in place

Exactly.

If no extension (and why would Horvat sign one at this point? I wouldn't in his shoes) you trade Gavrikov for a 1st, continue to stack assets, then in the offseason explore all options -- UFAs, trades, etc -- to finally get a top 6 center.

 

[Youngguns1380]

Exactly.

If no extension (and why would Horvat sign one at this point? I wouldn't in his shoes) you trade Gavrikov for a 1st, continue to stack assets, then in the offseason explore all options -- UFAs, trades, etc -- to finally get a top 6 center.

No offense but just high picks doesn’t equate to a championship team. We are significantly less without Gavrikov. Not only his stay at home defense but also his room presence especially with the young Russians.

A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

A center is staring at you in the face, in his prime, top 10 in faceoffs, good leader, a better scoring touch than Boone and defensively good. What are we waiting on?

 

[Toe Pick]

No offense but just high picks doesn’t equate to a championship team. We are significantly less without Gavrikov. Not only his stay at home defense but also his room presence especially with the young Russians.

A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

A center is staring at you in the face, in his prime, top 10 in faceoffs, good leader, a better scoring touch than Boone and defensively good. What are we waiting on?

He's not staying so get what you can and then use the assets to upgrade your roster in the offseason. That is called good asset management and good asset managers build teams that compete to win championships.

And please do tell what center is staring me in the face? Horvat? Does it really need explained to you why that deal isn't going to happen now?

 

[Youngguns1380]

He's not staying so get what you can and then use the assets to upgrade your roster in the offseason. That is called good asset management and good asset managers build teams that compete to win championships.

And please do tell what center is staring me in the face? Horvat? Does it really need explained to you why that deal isn't going to happen now?

Why are you getting irritated or mad, when I suggest a different path? Yes Horvat

 

[Viqsi]

No offense but just high picks doesn’t equate to a championship team. We are significantly less without Gavrikov. Not only his stay at home defense but also his room presence especially with the young Russians.

A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

A center is staring at you in the face, in his prime, top 10 in faceoffs, good leader, a better scoring touch than Boone and defensively good. What are we waiting on?

Um. I read that post as "you trade Gavrikov if you can't extend him." That doesn't strike me as unreasonable.

 

[Youngguns1380]

Um. I read that post as "you trade Gavrikov if you can't extend him." That doesn't strike me as unreasonable.

Gotcha - didn’t read it that way