Post-Game Talk: VGK 3 - WPG 2 in OT

[gojetsgo]

 

[jetsmooseice]

I've never liked the idea that if the Jets' best player is the reason for the win, the win would be undeserved.

It's not that it's undeserved, it's just that it's a hard model to sustain over the long run... as we saw in last season's playoffs.

 

[Flair Hay]

So if Nikita stays up when Ehlers returns, what would our ideal forward lines look like?

I mean it has to be Chibrikov on the 4th line, unless we are demoting Perfetti...

As much as I'd be down for it, Jets won't break up Scheif or Lowry line. And the only other C we have is a fellow Russian in Namestnikov.

He will play a few games on the 4th line when Ehlers is back, likely cool off on offense, and head back to the Moose when Gustafsson is healthy. Could be another week or two before Ehlers plays so he will get some NHL pay over Christmas break which is nice...

I just can't see it any other way.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It's not that it's undeserved, it's just that it's a hard model to sustain over the long run... as we saw in last season's playoffs.

Exept it's not long term, Ehlers is supposed to come back right away and if you listen to a lot of folks on this board he is our best forward.

 

[Flair Hay]

It's not that it's undeserved, it's just that it's a hard model to sustain over the long run... as we saw in last season's playoffs.

And the year before, against the close to the same Vegas team

 

[Optimistic Cynic]

moneypuck is awful

Who would you recommend that's better?

 

[Gm0ney]

Moneypuck just factored in NHL/referee bias...

The Jets have the 4th best net penalty/60 rate in the NHL...so the bias seems to be in their favor.

 

[Romang67]

It's not that it's undeserved, it's just that it's a hard model to sustain over the long run... as we saw in last season's playoffs.

Sure, but realistically that is how the Jets would win in the playoffs. They didn't have much turnover in the offseason, and the current core of the team is in their late 20s or early 30s.

I dunno, I've always thought this team as it's set up will go just as far as Hellebuyck will carry them.

 

[Moloch]

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sure, but realistically that is how the Jets would win in the playoffs. They didn't have much turnover in the offseason, and the current core of the team is in their late 20s or early 30s.

I dunno, I've always thought this team as it's set up will go just as far as Hellebuyck will carry them.

Just like Oilers go as far as McD carries them.

 

[Gm0ney]

Who would you recommend that's better?

The Jets' fancystats are sucking and have been in decline. Hockey Reference uses a goal based + strength of schedule model: Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Micah McCurdy/Hockeyviz does a more shot-metrics based model. He's on Bluesky and Twitter. Doesn't really give a percentage but you can see his points projection and projected playoff cutoff line. Here's his latest from a couple of days ago.


Nobody has a layout similar to McCurdy's but using different metrics I assume (more pessimistic about the Jets):

 

[DRW204]

So if Nikita stays up when Ehlers returns, what would our ideal forward lines look like?

I'd like to see one of Chibrikov or Nino be in the top 6. But I have a feeling they go back to way things were pre injury.

 

[Gm0ney]

As much as I like Ehlers, Samberg's the guy we really need back.

 

[Romang67]

As much as I like Ehlers, Samberg's the guy we really need back.

My prediction from a little over a week ago is aging well:

I suspect that the resurgence of Neal Pionk will come crashing down to earth in the next couple of months. Away from Samberg, he hasn't done any better this season than he has any season since the COVID season. And only one player on that pairing is a consistently good player in terms of out-chancing the other team.

Samberg is a really good hockey player. Losing him has been really rough on a D that's already suffering through a bad season for DeMelo.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

It’s clearly hard to defend a 5-3 but was that Stanley out on D?

Because Chevy thinks he is Da Bomb.

 

[Jets 31]

As much as I like Ehlers, Samberg's the guy we really need back.

I absolutely agree, Samberg is very good defensively and a penalty killer and Ehlers has the speed and ability to change a game pretty quick.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I didn't think the Jets would start 15-1 but they did, they just beat a team that was on a winning streak 8-1 two days ago and they are in first place in the entire league. Yes there are teams with games in hand but they have to win those games in hand. There is a very, very good chance the Jets don't win the Cup but only 1 team out of 32 teams does. I guess what i'm saying is i don't understand not looking at how this season is going so far and not being a happy fan .

Double like.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Like this spring Sutherland was accused of fixing games... he's been a corrupt ref for years now and on top of that, he fkn hates Scheifele

I fully believe he refs Jets games with the mindset of teaching Scheif a lesson for chirping him

Hmm interesting that there is so much smoke around this guy from a quick search. Not like it’s a court of law, but there are a lot of accusations.

 

[JetsFan815]

The Jets are in 1st place overall….in the entire league. If this is your reaction to that, I couldn't even imagine your reaction if they were a bubble team.

Maybe it’s best if just stepped away for a while. Hockey should be fun and if you’re not having fun watching your team lead the league, than really, whats the point?

I mean look at the games lately. They have been a .469 team in the last month. Not even .500. That record is worse than a bubble team, the San Jose Sharks have the same record in that time period.

Worse is that there is nothing in the underlying numbers that you can take solace in about them being unlucky. They are more or less full value for their record during this stretch. Below average corsi, 2nd worst in the league xGoals, league average PP, significantly below league average PK, goaltending is the only place where they are above league average.

Moreover how the 3rd pairing has been handled and how the same lines keep geting rolled doesnt inspire a lot of confidence in the ship being turned around. I am not saying they are gonna miss the playoffs or continue to be this bad but we've seen this movie before.

So I don't think it's an unreasonable reaction.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Sure, but realistically that is how the Jets would win in the playoffs. They didn't have much turnover in the offseason, and the current core of the team is in their late 20s or early 30s.

I dunno, I've always thought this team as it's set up will go just as far as Hellebuyck will carry them.

I have to add that as 55 goes, so does the rest of the team. He seems to have a direct effect on the rest of the team with whatever drive he brings to each game. Good and bad.

As much as I like Ehlers, Samberg's the guy we really need back.

I see our PP back to humming along when Ehlers is back. He is a chaotic little spark plug breaking the rest of the PP out of their ‘stand in my spot and pass incessantly’.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I mean look at the games lately. They have been a .469 team in the last month. Not even .500. That record is worse than a bubble team, the San Jose Sharks have the same record in that time period.

Worse is that there is nothing in the underlying numbers that you can take solace in about them being unlucky. They are more or less full value for their record during this stretch. Below average corsi, 2nd worst in the league xGoals, league average PP, significantly below league average PK, goaltending is the only place where they are above league average.

Moreover how the 3rd pairing has been handled and how the same lines keep geting rolled doesnt inspire a lot of confidence in the ship being turned around. I am not saying they are gonna miss the playoffs or continue to be this bad but we've seen this movie before.

So I don't think it's an unreasonable reaction.

Every time I get discouraged with certain roster decisions, I have to remember that I used to wish that our coach would see what we have in different players and different positions during the season to prepare for the playoffs when it really matters. Building up such a huge number of wins early in the season has afforded us the perfect time to do this. I am looking at the Stanley and Heinola pairing that way right now. This is the time to try them out imo.

 

[Gm0ney]

I didn't think the Jets would start 15-1 but they did, they just beat a team that was on a winning streak 8-1 two days ago and they are in first place in the entire league. Yes there are teams with games in hand but they have to win those games in hand. There is a very, very good chance the Jets don't win the Cup but only 1 team out of 32 teams does. I guess what i'm saying is i don't understand not looking at how this season is going so far and not being a happy fan .

They've been playing 0.433 hockey over the last month - included in that stretch, a couple of uninspiring wins over the Sabres and Blackhawks, and 3 losses against bottom 10 teams. Every time you think they might have righted the ship (like that 8-1 win over the Bruins) they follow up by getting their assess handed to them up and down the ice.

Meanwhile they continue to cram Stanley down everyone's throat because he's a positive difference maker in one out of every 19 games, and Heinola continues to get his "fair shake" by being played offside with the World's Tallest Pylon and yanked in and out of the lineup.

And we all know in our heart of hearts that Chibrikov is heading back to the Moose (and don't ask how they're doing) as soon as Ehlers is back.

So yeah, there's a bit more negativity than you'd expect if you just checked the standings...

 

[buggs]

I see our PP back to humming along when Ehlers is back. He is a chaotic little spark plug breaking the rest of the PP out of their ‘stand in my spot and pass incessantly’.

For all of Ehlers flaws and gaffes, you nailed it with the chaotic comment. He makes a multi-year static powerplay into something that is difficult to counter. I'm not entirely sure his teammates know exactly where he's going to go or what he's going to do, but the net effect is positive.

We are also missing his zone entries in general but specifically on the power play. We're good at dumps, not so good at chases. Yes, Ehlers may cough up the puck on occasion but I'd wager the zone time is considerably higher on the PP than it is now.

Trying to be fair to the players currently on the PP in that the road trip has been tiring, it certainly seems that our PP success has taken a big hit from Ehlers being gone.

 

[voyageur]

As much as I like Ehlers, Samberg's the guy we really need back.

There's always different reasons for the Corsi being the shits. Could be game situations like last one where the Jets didn't shoot, played with a lead. Could be breakdowns defensively.

Still if you are an optimist you can see that Fleury and Pionk are holding a minimal positve advantage in GF/GA ratio, and that the number of goals against has actually gone down without Samberg, which may be a move by Arniel to keep chances down in a simple game to cover for injury. I'd be interested to see how bad the PK has fared with Sammy out, the effect on everyone.

Because late game 5 on 3, that's Sammy out there not Stanley. Not that Stanley was awful. He actually made a nice block to keep the puck from going through moments before the game tying goal. Pionk to me seemed to be a little too high in the zone to let the pass go through to Stone, but I am not an expert on the Jets PK.

In my eyes Stan was better than Heinola last game. Better in battles, better in outlets, but the KC one is a reason to jump on him, if you don't like the guy. Anyways Miller looks like he draws in for Heinola next game.

I would have thought Miller would be inserted into the lineup for the Knights game, and Heinola the Habs, but I'm sure Arny has a reason for his decisions.

 

[NA Hockey]

For all of Ehlers flaws and gaffes, you nailed it with the chaotic comment. He makes a multi-year static powerplay into something that is difficult to counter. I'm not entirely sure his teammates know exactly where he's going to go or what he's going to do, but the net effect is positive.

We are also missing his zone entries in general but specifically on the power play. We're good at dumps, not so good at chases. Yes, Ehlers may cough up the puck on occasion but I'd wager the zone time is considerably higher on the PP than it is now.

Trying to be fair to the players currently on the PP in that the road trip has been tiring, it certainly seems that our PP success has taken a big hit from Ehlers being gone.

The pp may miss Ehlers unpredictability and the chaos he creates and the team misses his zone entries 5 on 5, but he has absolutely zero impact on zone entries on the PP and the fact that you think he does makes me realize you aren’t actually watching the games or the PP’s

If you watch pp1, every single controlled breakout starts With JMo retrieving the puck and skating up to the blue line. He then drops to one of KC or Scheif as they come with speed. Whoever gets the puck from JMo then skates to the neutral zone and crosses in front of the other. They then either drop the puck or keep it and approach the blue with speed. While this happens. Villardi is standing at the right boards near the blue line and Ehlers (now Perfetti) stands on the boards on the left side. As KC or Scheif approach the line they make the decision where the puck goes. If they are going up the right side they can gain the blue line on their own or pass to Villardi and he is to gain the zone and set up, same on the other side. Ehlers has zero to do with the zone entry unless he takes the last second pass at the blue from Scheif or KC and this happens approximately 1 in 4 entries and this part of a zone entry is not a strength of Ehlers as the d closes quickly and he has no speed when he gets the puck.