miscs75
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2014
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Lou wouldn’t take Mrazek in return for Varlamov unless he was a pending UFA. Now if the Leafs wanted to trade Campbell for Varlamov, then there would be talks.
Value of: Varlamov to the Leafs
- Thread starter LEAFANFORLIFE23
- Start date
If Varlamov would waive for the Leafs, the teams would need to find a 3rd team to take on Mrazek. No way the Isles take that salary for 2 more years since they want to compete next year and are in a cap crunch already. The big problem is, most of the teams who would trade for cap space are cap-floor teams, Mrazek is owed more than his cap hit the next 2 years.
That said, I would think something like:
To Tor: Varlamov, Chara 50% retained
To NYI: Dermot, Tor 1st 2022, Tor 3, 2023
To Det: Mrazek, Col 2 2022
I figure Varlamov gets a first, Dermot and a 3rd are for the Isles 2nd to dump Mrazek and Chara (worth a late pick).
Dermot gives the Isles some inexpensive depth at LD that they need for next year. He doesn't get a lot of ice time in Toronto and with Muzzin coming back they can get by without him and Chara can be the 7th D. Also, the salaries end up pretty much a wash a that point, leaving Toronto with the space to add another defenseman elsewhere.
That said, I would think something like:
To Tor: Varlamov, Chara 50% retained
To NYI: Dermot, Tor 1st 2022, Tor 3, 2023
To Det: Mrazek, Col 2 2022
I figure Varlamov gets a first, Dermot and a 3rd are for the Isles 2nd to dump Mrazek and Chara (worth a late pick).
Dermot gives the Isles some inexpensive depth at LD that they need for next year. He doesn't get a lot of ice time in Toronto and with Muzzin coming back they can get by without him and Chara can be the 7th D. Also, the salaries end up pretty much a wash a that point, leaving Toronto with the space to add another defenseman elsewhere.
In my opinion, take out Chara from NYI, and whatever value you put on him from Toronto….no interest in Chara.
To be honest I would be happy with a 1st for Varlamov and I would be willing to throw Chara in for Free. Without Islanders retaining money on Varlamov I am guessing he gets a 2nd and a ok prospect at best
It seems incresingly unlikely to me that NYI will move Varlamov. NYI still need a quality 2nd goalie next year (with insurance that he could end up being the first), and they have no interest in taking salary on for next year with a goalie they know + value less than Varlamov. His fair value without anything retained is probably a late 2nd round pick, but I don't think that NYI is motivated to do that. I think NYI are buyers, just not deadline buyers - they desperately need a 2nd pairing LD. They're going to double down on D + goaltending, and doing that means having either Varlamov, or someone they trust as much.
drw02
Registered User
- Aug 10, 2013
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Detroit definitely ain't doing Toronto a favor by eating 7.6M over two years of a player they don't want for like the 64th pick
As a leaf fan that 7.6 million over 2 years to a team willing to take him carries a first round pick value. Maybe a cap floor team would take him for a little less but not much less.
Disgraced Cosmonaut
Registered User
At some point, GMs have to show they can work at both ends of the pool, and evaluating needs-in-flight under enormous pressure falls squarely in the deep end.
Still, I’d be shocked if this went down. Lou and Dubas don’t typically covet the same players. This would be an exception to the rule. Semyon would give the Leafs a legitimate shot at winning rounds, and Kyle has to know this.
Still, I’d be shocked if this went down. Lou and Dubas don’t typically covet the same players. This would be an exception to the rule. Semyon would give the Leafs a legitimate shot at winning rounds, and Kyle has to know this.
of course, maybe even 2...
Yes, Lou is so savvy with his trades. He really bent COL over getting that 2nd round pick from them for Devon Toews. Or maybe the 1st for Palmeri, who has put up production consistent with a 3rd liner since being acquired. I think I'd be quite OK with Kyle making a call to old man Lou, although I really don't see how Varlamov is an upgrade over Campbell.
The Real JT
The percentage you’re paying is too high priced
You may be right on Varly but some of your other comments are somewhat inaccurate.
The Isles were in cap hell, Toews didn’t perform well in the prior year’s playoffs and the Isles received two second round picks, not one, in that deal. Hindsight is 20-20 but the Isles needed to make a move and at the time it was the best value available.
As for Palmieri, I agree it was an overpayment but he’s playing better lately and I think he’ll be ok as a second line talent going forward.
Regarding Campbell, you better hope he rounds into his early season form when he returns. Otherwise you might regret passing on Varly.
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If he traded either of those players for Varlamov he would lose his job within the minute. Varly is an average NHL starter, nothing great. You do not give up on those prospects for 2 years of average goaltending.
CupHolders
Really Fries My Bananas!
- Aug 8, 2006
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Toews as stated, was due to COVID flat cap, and his arbitration eligibility putting Barzal as an offer sheet risk.
A first round pick for Palmieri was for the seven playoff goals and multiple playoff round wins.
That deal really shouldn’t equate into his UFA signing… which he is now producing after getting over his injury.
As for Varlamov, he’s also been injured and finally looks to be rounding into form. What that means for the Leafs… I don’t really care to conjecture what that would look like. Not even sure the Isles do want to move him.
BlueBaron
Registered User
While it may be true he won't come to Canada your logic is flawed if you think Edmonton would be the most attractive Canadian option. If they had turned down Calgary you might have made a stronger case.
Not sure how you figure that...
Marleau cost the Leafs a 1st for a similar price point, but Mrazek is an actual player whereas Marleau was pure dollars-out.
miscs75
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2014
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Knies would be the main interest however they would have to include a contract going the other way and nothing they have is expiring (one more year for Dermott/Holl and 2 more for Mrazek after this season). It would have to involve a 3rd team in order for them to take on the contract.
Fair enough,
I'm just personally going to look at Jack Campbell's entire 79 game body of work as the Leafs starter and choose to look at the first 60 starts where he was basically our MVP and choose to accept the ~19 starts where he was completely below average. Lots is made of his S% month by month, when in reality he was the only reason we were winning with any consistency until the COVID pause.
I still have a ton of faith in Jack. I don't expect other fanbases to understand that. But when Jack is on his game his ability to track the play is outstanding. I really think he will be fine. Mrazek on the other hand is a complete dumpster fire, and would love to move him out. I genuinely think he is the worst fit for our crease. Way too busy. I would love Varlamov, but just not at a price that makes any sense for the Islanders to move him.
I'll also note, that I really don't think this is a year where TOR can do much damage anyways. So I'd prefer retaining our picks and rolling the dice with what we have. We have been hemorrhaging picks in years past and with the terrible news about Rodian Amirov, we need to keep our 1st IMO. Some may disagree with that, but the Leafs still have a lot of decent prospects close to making an impact (Knies, Robertson, Holmberg, Abruzzse, Neimela, Steeves...etc). I just don't see this immediate need to go "all in" this year knowing how deep the Atlantic Division playoffs will be. No matter what, the Leafs will likely be playing TB, FLA, BOS or CAR in R1. It would take a complete miracle for the Leafs to advance past the divisional component of the playoffs onward to the ECF and beyond. f*** they'll be in tough just to get past R1. For me, I really think our "All-in" years are the next 2 after this season. I know the hockey world will love another Leafs R1 exit, and I pray that doesn't happen, but we are almost guaranteed to be an underdog in any R1 series. It's really not all that unlikely if you ask me. Just the way she goes. I've waited over 30 years for a cup, I can wait a handful more. Just don't mortgage the future for a sliver of a shot at the hardest trophy in pro sport. Take your shot when you actually have a good chance
ALEXIVICH CHULKATURI
Registered User
The Islanders are not trading with the Maple Leafs. Lanny McDonald game 7 OT goal on the Island. Darcy Tucker blatantly injuring Kenny Jonnson. John Tavares betrayal. The Maple Leafs and the Rangers would have to blatantly overpay.
