Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[bossram]

Just loving how Canucks are living in your head rent free. The hate on Canucks is intense, can't wait to see how worst it gets if Canucks go on a cup run beating the Oilers.


The Canucks will sustain this play level and PDO until they win the cup

Thanks for this very insightful and informative post. Really contributing to the discussion.

 

[bossram]

Using 2 stats to tell us how Canucks are and what will happen in future is the pinnacle of stupidity at this point since PDO can not accurately determine what can happen in the future and is just another underlying stat

Again, more insightful responses from you.

And actually, if you look at year-to-year Sh% at a team level (not PDO), you'd find a fairly strong negative correlation. I.e. teams with a high Sh% in one year find their Sh% to be lower the next year. It's pretty predictive.

Even half-year samples (i.e. first 41 games to second 41 games) you would find a similar relationship, though not as strong.

The"underlying numbers" developed in the analytics era are valuable because they have some predictive value.

 

[Rowlet]

Oilers fans pioneered half these analytics when Canucks fans were.. well, there were no Canucks fans. You're here in numbers because these are the only 6 good months you've had in a decade and the bandwagon is full.

I look forward to not one of you having the balls to post here once it happens.

Why should we give the Aquillinis money if they refuse to ice a good team?

Go ahead and cheer for mediocrity in Edmonton, but I have too much to do to spend 10 hours of my life every week watching the Canucks lose for ten years.

 

[Shareefruck]

All teams play pretty similar styles. Do you think Tocchet invented a new system in his year off after coaching the Coyotes? If so, what do you think the Canucks are doing that has never been done before?

Leaving aside PDO, this is the elephant in the room:
Boeser-23%
JT Miller-21%
Hughes-11%
Dakota Joshua-23%
Lafferty-22%
Hoglander-22%

Do you really believe this will continue? If so, how did Tocchet change his coaching strategy to acheive this?

The one year his Coyotes made the playoffs, 19/20, they were 27th in 5v5 shooting %. If Tocchet's system leads to high shooting %, why is it only working this year?

People have mentioned that other teams with exceptionally high PDOs played similar styles, so I'm inclined to believe that ("all teams" playing similarly is not what I've observed, though-- many have much more of a "don't overthink it and get everything on net you can" mentality, and honestly that could be a better approach overall, despite a lower PDO).

I don't know if it will continue (the evidence seems to overwhelmingly point towards "no", but I'd like to know why). Style also isn't only dictated by how a coach historically does things, it's also driven by personnel, and the coach adapts to that. Most coaches don't have one set style, from what I've observed, and I've seen them completely 180 their approach during their tenure due to what they have to work with.

I have the same uncertainties about shot percentage, to be honest. Sure, history shows that shot percentage always regresses to the mean, but again, I'm curious why, and why a player couldn't in theory be so averse to shooting from everywhere that they end up with high shooting percentages (even if the worst-case result is that they never get many shots and end up poor players overall).

 

[Ace of Hades]

I expected to eventually log into this page and not read post dated salt and butthurt. But here we are 44 pages in.

Tell us which goals shouldn't have gone in. Do the last 3 games. Point out the fantom bounces.

Some of these salty oiler fans more invested in the Canucks than their own team, are always good for providing the laughs.

Canucks Jets

Top of the league

Hopefully it stays that way.

 

[Sykur]

Demko is a good goaltender and there's nothing fishy about a .916 save percentage from him.

It's the offensive numbers that are as egregious as I've ever seen it in the NHL. Relative to the rest of the league, which is the point of sustainability here, you have to go back like 4 decades to find a stat as stupid as Vancouver at 13.8%.

If you regress them to 12.2%, which would STILL be unsustainable and STILL be #1 in the NHL this year, they'd lose 20 goals in 40 games played. That's like 8 points in the standings alone, and it doesn't address how GF going down often equates to GA going up. Less offensive confidence, less conservative hockey protecting leads, etc.

 

[Saltcreek]

Using 2 stats to tell us how Canucks are and what will happen in future is the pinnacle of stupidity at this point since PDO can not accurately determine what can happen in the future and is just another underlying stat

Do you simply not understand statistics and numbers? If you want proof that what the Canucks are doing is not sustainable then go find me a team that has done what they are doing now for 2-3 seasons in a row.

Do you have all these stats saved in your computer?? Good God the amount of time Oilers fans invest to troll the Canucks is astounding to me.

You are in almost every Oilers thread trash talking the team. I think you need a good hard look in the mirror.

People have mentioned that other teams with exceptionally high PDOs played similar styles, so I'm inclined to believe that ("all teams" playing similarly is not what I've observed, though-- many have much more of a "don't overthink it and get everything on net you can" mentality, and honestly that could be a better approach overall, despite a lower PDO).

I don't know if it will continue (the evidence seems to overwhelmingly point towards "no", but I'd like to know why). Style also isn't only dictated by how a coach historically does things, it's also driven by personnel, and the coach adapts to that. Most coaches don't have one set style, from what I've observed, and I've seen them completely 180 their approach during their tenure due to what they have to work with.

I have the same uncertainties about shot percentage, to be honest. Sure, history shows that shot percentage always regresses to the mean, but again, I'm curious why, and why a player couldn't in theory be so averse to shooting from everywhere that they end up with high shooting percentages (even if the worst-case result is that they never get many shots and end up poor players overall).

Ill comment on the shooting percentages as best as I could in as short as possible. If you really think about it the variables that influence the shooting percentages are actually quite a lot. For these to consistently line up for a player over many seasons is just statistically improbable. A good example of this is when EP was shooting at near 30% when he broke into the league. That only lasted 1 season and then he regressed back to the norm.

 

[BCNate]

Hey maybe everyone can just agree to disagree with all of the PDO talk, and focus on the games rather than math?

The Canucks look real solid right now. This road trip was a concern going into January. I think it is a huge win no matter how the last game goes, if it goes.

I expect a major move or two before the deadline. Management has been aggressive so far, and I think they will continue. I’d expect that they would move kuzmenko, 1st, and a prospect that we’d hat to lose if they can get the right couple pieces.

It’s been a fun season so far, massive step forward for this franchise regardless how it all plays out.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Not really. Most posters like yourself don’t understand PDO and equate it as a measurement of luck.
But it’s simply the sum of shooting percentage and save percentage.
Good teams with strong goaltending generally have high PDO.

THIS is the crux of it.

 

[Dust]

Hey maybe everyone can just agree to disagree with all of the PDO talk, and focus on the games rather than math?

The Canucks look real solid right now. This road trip was a concern going into January. I think it is a huge win no matter how the last game goes, if it goes.

I expect a major move or two before the deadline. Management has been aggressive so far, and I think they will continue. I’d expect that they would move kuzmenko, 1st, and a prospect that we’d hat to lose if they can get the right couple pieces.

It’s been a fun season so far, massive step forward for this franchise regardless how it all plays out.

They only need to go .500 the rest of the way to hit 100 points. Pretty easy schedule to finish out January as well.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

A good example of this is when EP was shooting at near 30% when he broke into the league. That only lasted 1 season and then he regressed back to the norm.

And scored 1 less goal, in three less games. Then has steadily increased his scoring totals since.

It's like ya'll think shot % counts on the scoreboard. In that first season, if he wasn't scoring at a 30% clip, who is to say he would shot more, like he did in his second season. It was an intentional move in the second season.

Just like all this PDO excuse now.

It's also hilarious to watch Oilers fans essentially call their team during the 80s a team of luck. I guess we can disregard at least two of their cups because of record high PDO. It's almost as if a good team can have this stat.

 

[Shareefruck]

Ill comment on the shooting percentages as best as I could in as short as possible. If you really think about it the variables that influence the shooting percentages are actually quite a lot. For these to consistently line up for a player over many seasons is just statistically improbable. A good example of this is when EP was shooting at near 30% when he broke into the league. That only lasted 1 season and then he regressed back to the norm.

To clarify, I only have uncertainty about some scenarios but not others when it comes to shooting percentage (same with PDO). I don't have uncertainty about your Pettersson example, because he wasn't an example of someone who stylistically only shoots high percentage shots in his rookie year, he was shooting a lot from everywhere and just had a miraculous success rate. So I totally understand why that would be unsustainable.

Kuzmenko I think is a better example of what I have uncertainty about. He really doesn't seem to like to shoot until he has a yawning empty net or a prime shooting position. To your point, his shot% did regress this year as well, but I can attribute it to other factors beyond going from good luck to bad luck. He actually had to change up his style to shoot from everywhere due to his struggles with adapting to the team's defensive system, which is a complete mismatch for him (he's now alone in his own line trying to figure out a grindier two-way game).

The numbers would not predict this as likely, but I kind of do (perhaps foolishly) expect it to rocket it back up if he gets put into a situation (or team) more suited to him. Maybe it won't, because it's statistically so unlikely, but again, I'm confused about why.

 

[Sykur]

Do you simply not understand statistics and numbers? If you want proof that what the Canucks are doing is not sustainable then go find me a team that has done what they are doing now for 2-3 seasons in a row.

I would like to see an argument for the inverse: The Sharks have the lowest PDO in the league, at 96.9. It is also historically low and unprecedented. Does that make their roster of AHL scrubs unlucky?

Who wants to argue that this is unsustainable? That they will progress to the mean by the end of the year? That they'll play much better, maybe even .500+ hockey?

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Do you simply not understand statistics and numbers? If you want proof that what the Canucks are doing is not sustainable then go find me a team that has done what they are doing now for 2-3 seasons in a row.

The 80s Edmonton Oilers.

How about you google a thing or two before you invent an argument.

 

[andora]

Andora, I know you're better than this man.

It's not unreasonable to say, "well, if a team had a lower shooting percentage, they'd probably have fewer wins because they scored fewer goals".

Of course it's reasonable and are you present things and make a difference as well. I was definitely being snippy probably just a buildup from taking the time to read this

 

[jackjohnson]

Do you simply not understand statistics and numbers? If you want proof that what the Canucks are doing is not sustainable then go find me a team that has done what they are doing now for 2-3 seasons in a row.



You are in almost every Oilers thread trash talking the team. I think you need a good hard look in the mirror.

Ill comment on the shooting percentages as best as I could in as short as possible. If you really think about it the variables that influence the shooting percentages are actually quite a lot. For these to consistently line up for a player over many seasons is just statistically improbable. A good example of this is when EP was shooting at near 30% when he broke into the league. That only lasted 1 season and then he regressed back to the norm.

Do you guys only know how to talk about stats and nothing else? Do you watch Canucks games? If not, then why keep regurgitating the same stupid stat everyday since the beginning of the season? No Canucks fan care about this PDO talk except for Oilers fans still trying to troll Canucks fans and the great season their team has. It comes off as petty. The fact that you guys keep saying it's unsustainable becomes pretty annoying especially when repeated every day

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The 80s Edmonton Oilers.

How about you google a thing or two before you invent an argument.

So you think these canucks are comparable to those Oilers teams?

Thats not helping your argument.

 

[Raistlin]

I dont want to wade into whether PDO is a useful predictor or not, I believe the game is dynamic, if the canucks score a goal less per game, because the shooting % is unquestionably high, then the question becomes, do I believe the coaching staff and players know how to win close games? this year, with an actual system in place and the new personnel to hold leads, their record indicates Tocchet and team will still prevail. like today's 1-0 game.

While they were outshot many times in the first 43 games, how many times were they out played? rarely. I would like to see them play more from behind, but they are stubbornly scoring first every single game. Neutral fans watching the game may notice that there is buy in to the system and the chaos from previous years have been majorly suppressed. When plays do break down, there is a vezina quality goalie bailing them out, and they are tougher than previous years when the opponents want to muck it up.

This is just a good team overall, to say otherwise is just inherent bias staring at stats only and ignoring the on ice product being played IRL.

 

[jackjohnson]

I would like to see an argument for the inverse: The Sharks have the lowest PDO in the league, at 96.9. It is also historically low and unprecedented. Does that make their roster of AHL scrubs unlucky?

Who wants to argue that this is unsustainable? That they will progress to the mean by the end of the year? That they'll play much better, maybe even .500+ hockey?

The problem with these stat nerds is they think every team has to fall into the mean on a bell curve with no extremes which is funny. You are right, if we use the same logic with Sharks then theynhave to go on a huge win streak since their PDO points to progression. That means both Sharks and Canucks should be a wild card team by the end of the season.

 

[jackjohnson]

I dont want to wade into whether PDO is a useful predictor or not, I believe the game is dynamic, if the canucks score a goal less per game, because the shooting % is unquestionably high, then the question becomes, do I believe the coaching staff and players know how to win close games? this year, with an actual system in place and the new personnel to hold leads, their record indicates Tocchet and team will still prevail. like today's 1-0 game.

While they were outshot many times in the first 43 games, how many times were they out played? rarely. I would like to see them play more from behind, but they are stubbornly scoring first every single game. Neutral fans watching the game may notice that there is buy in to the system and the chaos from previous years have been majorly suppressed. When plays do break down, there is a vezina quality goalie bailing them out, and they are tougher than previous years when the opponents want to muck it up.

This is just a good team overall, to say otherwise is just inherent bias staring at stats only and ignoring the on ice product being played IRL.

The problem is that Oilers fans never once discussed other stats, other factors and other intangibles in the Canucks game and have isolated PDO and Shooting percentage as the only important stat and factor to determining if a team is good or bad or if they will regress and come back down to earth. It's just ridiculous and makes any debate with them not worth it because they stubbornly refuse to acknowledge anything else outside PDO and shooting percentage.

So you think these canucks are comparable to those Oilers teams?

Thats not helping your argument.

Yeah they are definitely comparable to those 80s Oilers team. Why not??

 

[Saltcreek]

The 80s Edmonton Oilers.

How about you google a thing or two before you invent an argument.

HA! You are comparing the Canucks to a dynasty team with some of the greatest players ever to play the game? Do you realise that you just proved my point about not understanding numbers and statistics? My god, you look so foolish right now.

 

[Devonator]

It would be amazing to see a Conference final between the Canucks versus either the Oilers or Jets...the hatred is wonderful between these fan bases....just reading the posts from those potential serious would be a riot.

 

[jackjohnson]

It would be amazing to see a Conference final between the Canucks versus either the Oilers or Jets...the hatred is wonderful between these fan bases....just reading the posts from those potential serious would be a riot.

I doubt Oilers will get to conference finals. Only thing that extended their win streak to 10 was by playing trash teams and barely beating them in extra time and with the help of refs. They don't impress me much.

 

[strattonius]

The Canucks shot 4.3% against Buffalo and still won.

Slowly chipping away at this massive regression I've been expecting to hit since early December.

 

[Saltcreek]

I doubt Oilers will get to conference finals. Only thing that extended their win streak to 10 was by playing trash teams and barely beating them in extra time and with the help of refs. They don't impress me much.

What do you call barely beating the Sabres who are one of the worst teams in the league? Can you be a bigger hypocrite?