Vancouver Canucks - Improve or Regress?

credulous

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Nov 18, 2021
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If Demko stays healthy I think that Vancouver finishes a top 3 team in the pacific.
If Boeser is back to full health and DeBrusk provides 50+ points from the second line then I think the team could improve and potentially take the division.

I don't think they got worse drastically on defense. Zadorov was playing 3rd pair minutes. Sure, they're going to miss his physicality in the playoffs but I don't think he was truly that important to the Canucks in the regular season. Forbert should be able to fill that #5/6 spot fine.

Where I think the Canucks are weakest on their roster is 3C. It's a position where their lack of depth will sting and might cost them some matchups. If they can improve that via trade then Vancouver should be pretty steady and could win games against any team in the league.

demko is definitely a wildcard. he hasn't had a healthy season in three years. getting a full year out of him will help offset the tidal wave of regression that's coming for their offensive output

i think you're right that they aren't drastically worse on defense but i do think they lack puck movement in the bottom four compared to last year. cole isn't great but he could make a decent first pass and he played a lot of minutes last season. forbort, soucy and desharnais are all black holes and myers success last year was largely that he didn't need to handle the puck as much as in past seasons. i think they'll address this in season though

center depth is the big issue i see. blueger, suter and aman aren't good enough center depth for a wannabe contender. they also can't lineup pettersson and miller easily without another middle six center on the roster
 
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credulous

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Nov 18, 2021
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The hell are you talking about? I included every game in Calgary for Lindholm and Kuzmenko.

Fact: the Canucks added +18goals on offense this season.
It's a more versatile group and overall there will be more production.

No idea why you're on such a bender to downplay the Canucks offense. You want to criticize their D or health of Demko I'm all ears; but chopping their offense makes no sense the group is very clearly in a better spot going in to the season.

who cares about the calgary minutes? vancouver never had kuzmenko and lindholm in the lineup at the same time so including both their totals is double counting them

the fact is the canucks aren't going to see +18 goals (assuming everyone plays exactly as well as they did last year) because they don't have enough minutes to go around to play everyone as much as they played last year

heinen (935), sherwood (772), debrusk (1015) and sprong (762) played 3482 minutes last season. if you subtract mikheyev (946), kuzmenko (452), lindholm (324) and lafferty (857) it's 51 goals and 3482 minutes in and 30 goals and 2589 minutes out and you still need to find over 900 more minutes to subtract from the vancouver lineup

i'll give you a hint: that's about what hoglander (24 goals) played last season
 
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strattonius

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who cares about the calgary minutes? vancouver never had kuzmenko and lindholm in the lineup at the same time so including both their totals is double counting them

the fact is the canucks aren't going to see +18 goals (assuming everyone plays exactly as well as they did last year) because they don't have enough minutes to go around to play everyone as much as they played last year

heinen (935), sherwood (772), debrusk (1015) and sprong (762) played 3482 minutes last season. if you subtract mikheyev (946), kuzmenko (452), lindholm (324) and lafferty (857) it's 51 goals and 3482 minutes in and 30 goals and 2589 minutes out and you still need to find over 900 more minutes to subtract from the vancouver lineup

i'll give you a hint: that's about what hoglander (24 goals) played last season

Analysis is awful.

-Kuzmenko wasn't scoring for Vancouver he was scoring in Calgary. All of a sudden we are expected to miss his production for next year? so stupid.
-Mikheyev scored 1 goal in his last 50 games
-Lafferty started off hot and completely dried up the last 40 games as well.

We are replacing these turds with players with much higher upside in our line up. Sucks you can't see it season can't start soon enough.
 

Regal

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demko is definitely a wildcard. he hasn't had a healthy season in three years. getting a full year out of him will help offset the tidal wave of regression that's coming for their offensive output

i think you're right that they aren't drastically worse on defense but i do think they lack puck movement in the bottom four compared to last year. cole isn't great but he could make a decent first pass and he played a lot of minutes last season. forbort, soucy and desharnais are all black holes and myers success last year was largely that he didn't need to handle the puck as much as in past seasons. i think they'll address this in season though

center depth is the big issue i see. blueger, suter and aman aren't good enough center depth for a wannabe contender. they also can't lineup pettersson and miller easily without another middle six center on the roster

I think Blueger is fine at 3C since Garland is such a strong play driver at the wing. He just needs to be defensively responsible and contribute a bit when he can. That line dominated possession last year regardless of the center and could take hard matchups since all three are good defensively. If some of the new wing pieces mean Suter can center the 4th, I think he’s stronger than the average 4C. The problem is only really if Miller and Pettersson get hurt
 

bringbacktheskate604

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Jul 20, 2022
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For sure, that’s why I specifically said on paper. I think it’s marginally better there but there was a lot that went right last year so we’ll see how it plays out. I expect Miller and Boeser to score a bit less. Pettersson hopefully can be closer to 22-23 and/or more consistent, but we’ll see. At the same time, Mikheyev went like 60 games while scoring 1 goal and the PP was pretty bad after the trade deadline, so there’s some room for gaps to get filled in. If they struggle to score like they did after the all star break, they’ll be a bubble team, but I think they can be somewhere in between that and the early season high scoring.
I hate career years as an argument.
For one aside from JT who is in his prime and TBF has been basically having a career year every season but 2022-23,

Brock was finally healthy physically and mentally and his die-hard fans felt this was always what he would become.

Hoglander and Quinn haven't even hit their prime so not sure why anyone would expect them to regress? Do people say that about Cale who's a year older? Or guys taken in 2019 with Hoglander, Like Caufield etc?

Joshua is the only one who really came out of left field and combined with his previous play and his high shooting% this might have been his career year but even then there's tons of examples of players especially power forwards hitting late once given bigger roles or just putting it together. Shit we literally saw it with JT. There's also Tage on the Sabres, Hyman on the oilers, Chandler on Vegas etc.

Personally I feel that as nuck fans we've had every single excuse thrown our way since Tochett , Allvin and JR turned the team around as top why this team is a mirage.

I mean it mostly came from two distinct fanbase but the lengths gone to in order to prove that were hilarious and each time one was debunked, another reason was presented, so on and so forth.

Now it's players all had career years, which I think is stupid and I explained why, nevermind the fact we added over 55+ goals from last seasons roster.

Then it's Demko is injury prone, despite that not being so cut and dry, the team showed beyond a doubt they can win games without Demko including against literally the two best teams since February and that was in the playoffs.

Finally now it's our defense when in reality, the two least effective dmen in the regular season were Cole and Zadorov and Soucy injured for a large chunk of the season. Our record with Soucy was impeccable and our four best dmen and highest leveraged and minute leaders all are back. Our bottom pairing this season based on regular season stats is actually better and nastier with Vinny not even a finished project yet.

We also have 3.5 million in cap as I explained above to improve the D corp if needed, which at the deadline with double retention gets you one hell of an upgrade if someone becomes available.

I dunno man, I look around at what other teams did in the west and see the oilers do nothing to fix their d but brought in two forwards, one who is made of glass and the other won't solve the issue of who takes over on nights when McDrai doesn't average over 2.5 points a game because their record sucks when those two aren't combing at that pace. Our forward depth, goaltending and defense blow them away.

Vegas got a little weaker. The stars who I like a lot got a little bit weaker, the Kings became irrelevant. The Avs are in cap hell and have a ton of questions, I respect the Preds for going all in but those are risky contracts and that team is really old but at least they addressed their needs. The Jets lost a lot and did squat to get better.

All these teams created more questions or at best stayed the same yet so far this summer there has been no threads about them regressing yet we have this one and a poll was done. Very odd but not surprising based on the amount of vitriol that seems to follow this team now that we are winning again
 
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PeteEakins

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Oct 9, 2021
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My friends, no one is ganging up on the Vancouver Canucks. It's just being:

dll.jpg


Reversion to Mean.PNG


Last year, the Canucks amassed a staggering 279 goals, with their top five players performing well above their career averages. A reversion to the mean, my dear, suggests that this “overperformance” accounted for 30 goals.

Subtracting this 30-goal anomaly, we arrive at a total of 249 goals. Should these players revert to their career norms (which, I daresay, is more than likely), Vancouver would find itself ranked 21st in offense, akin to the likes of Buffalo, the New York Islanders, and Minnesota.

Furthermore, the expectation that Jake DeBrusk—who has never graced us with a 30-goal season and scored fewer than 20 last year—will replace the production of Lindholm and Kuzmenko is, quite frankly, "delulu".

In summation, reversion to the mean equals regression. While I shan’t speculate on their playoff prospects, it is patently obvious that the team is in a less favorable position.
 
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Regal

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Mar 12, 2010
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My friends, no one is ganging up on the Vancouver Canucks. It's just being:

View attachment 897737

View attachment 897738

They scored 279 goals last year with their top 5 players all over-performing their career averages. A reversion to the mean would suggest that the size of this "overperformance" was 30 goals.

279 goals minus the 30 goal overperformance = 249 goals. Should these players revert back to their career averages (I'm guessing more than 1 will), Vancouver would have the 21st ranked offense which would put them in line with Buffalo, New York Islanders, and Minnesota (which sounds about right).

Now add the fact that Jake "never scored 30 goals, and definitely scored less than 20 last year" DeBrusk is expected to replace the production of Lindholm/ Kuzmenko - well now you are in the realm of Delulu.

My friends, being delulu is not the solulu.

Reversion to mean = regression. I'm not going to guess if they're making the playoffs. I'm stating the obvious when I say they are worse.

This is a pretty dumb metric since it’s using career numbers to downgrade players in the prime of their careers/just breaking out. The team as a whole was 13th in expected goals for last year. That should be the expected reversion, not this BS. Delulu is also not the solulu when it comes to making up some terrible statistical analysis.
 

CascadiaPuck

Proud Canucks investor.
Jan 13, 2010
1,851
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Vancouver
Looks like Canucks' fans wait for everyone to go to bed to talk about how good the team is without pushback. You've got a few more hours.
On behalf of all Canucks fans, I’d like to apologize for living further west in a different time zone and having free time to post here at a time that doesn’t align with more important posters living to the east.
 

WetcoastOrca

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Better depth at forward but need a top 4 D. I expect them once again to compete for top spot in the Pacific. Probably it will come down to health.
 

Siludin

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Dec 9, 2010
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Relentless and deep forward group as mentioned by everyone in this topic. Seems nobody is willing to sell the Canucks short there.

Regarding the defense, outside of Hughes/Hronek, who speak for themselves, the rest of the defense seems suspect to most, but I see a group that is filled with giant dudes who, although respectively coming with some flaws, will be coordinated and jumbled in and out of pairings and lineups to match competition's strengths and weaknesses. The performance of the Canucks bottom four defensemen will be a reflection of the coaching:

Soucy 6'5
Myers 6'8
Forbert 6'4
Desharnais 6'6

Gonna be a real handful to play against for every team in the league - no easy nights against the Canucks this coming season.
All-star goaltender prone to injury is once again the biggest question.
If Silovs ends up playing 40+ games and looking good, Demko could be on his heels.
 

Rowlet

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demko is definitely a wildcard. he hasn't had a healthy season in three years. getting a full year out of him will help offset the tidal wave of regression that's coming for their offensive output

i think you're right that they aren't drastically worse on defense but i do think they lack puck movement in the bottom four compared to last year. cole isn't great but he could make a decent first pass and he played a lot of minutes last season. forbort, soucy and desharnais are all black holes and myers success last year was largely that he didn't need to handle the puck as much as in past seasons. i think they'll address this in season though

center depth is the big issue i see. blueger, suter and aman aren't good enough center depth for a wannabe contender. they also can't lineup pettersson and miller easily without another middle six center on the roster

The Joshua, Garland, Bleuger line was the most effective 3rd line in the league last season, and one of the most effective lines altogether.

15th best in the league in xGF% among lines with over 200 mins, higher than the Point/Kuch line, Tkachuk/Bennett/Verhaeghe, Tkachuk/Bennett/Cousins, Drouin/MacK/Rant, and others.
 

Rowlet

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There will come a day when Canucks fans understand pdo. But it is not this day

The Canucks didn't even have the highest PDO this past season, it was Boston, and their PDO was even higher the year before.

How many times have you commented on the Bruins high PDO over the past 2 seasons?
 

TheOrangeDesk

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May 27, 2015
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And one day all the gas fume lobotamized Oilers fans will remember it isn’t November and the Canucks finished top 10 in xGF% 5v5, and didn’t even lead the league in PDO at 5v5.
do those gas fumes help with vision?

canuncks first in the league for PDO at 5on5 with 1.028
 

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Britton

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Nov 28, 2008
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My friends, no one is ganging up on the Vancouver Canucks. It's just being:

View attachment 897737

View attachment 897738

They scored 279 goals last year with their top 5 players all over-performing their career averages. A reversion to the mean would suggest that the size of this "overperformance" was 30 goals.

279 goals minus the 30 goal overperformance = 249 goals. Should these players revert back to their career averages (I'm guessing more than 1 will), Vancouver would have the 21st ranked offense which would put them in line with Buffalo, New York Islanders, and Minnesota (which sounds about right).

Now add the fact that Jake "never scored 30 goals, and definitely scored less than 20 last year" DeBrusk is expected to replace the production of Lindholm/ Kuzmenko - well now you are in the realm of Delulu.

My friends, being delulu is not the solulu.

Reversion to mean = regression. I'm not going to guess if they're making the playoffs. I'm stating the obvious when I say they are worse.
Why are you using JT millers career averages, and not you know, his averages in five seasons in Vancouver which amount to 32 goals per 82 games? Those make the numbers were look way worse than they are. Also Lindholm and Kuzemenko scored a combined 14 goals last year for the Canuck. Are you really trying to say Debrusk isn't going to score at least 14 goals? Did several Canucks have career seasons last year? Yeah, but a guy like Pettersson also had a down year, and they added a ton of goals this offseason, while only losing 14. At worst they maybe lose 10 goals if that if all those players regress to career averages including the new guys.
 
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TheOrangeDesk

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May 27, 2015
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yes.


and I would bet anyone expecting Canucks regression are expecting the same from the Canucks. I just see Canucks fans denying it. id also be a lot more concerned about Canucks regressing because their PDO I heavily inflated because of shooting %, a stat far more likely to regress than sv%
 

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Rowlet

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5on5 they did

yes.


and I would bet anyone expecting Canucks regression are expecting the same from the Canucks. I just see Canucks fans denying it. id also be a lot more concerned about Canucks regressing because their PDO I heavily inflated because of shooting %, a stat far more likely to regress than sv%

As another poster replied, there's conflicting information, so at best it's a statistical tie between multiple teams, and not a significant outlier. The other team has also managed to have an extremely high PDO for multiple seasons, far higher than the Canucks' PDO over that same period of time, which just shows that it is possible to have high PDO in consecutive years.

As for the shooting%, Tocchet famously has the team taking less shots, and specifically only shooting when there are screens or multiple screens in place. He's even said it himself in an interview, that he doesn't just want the team firing pucks for the sake of getting shots on net because the other team will just skate back the other way, which will lead to a higher S% naturally. The team's 5v5 S% this past season was 10.59%, which was the highest, but only by about half a percent, not like Boston's 103.6 PDO from 22-23.

The Canucks were also 6th in HDSF, and 23rd in LDSF (EDM, NJD, PIT, NYI, LAK) and 23rd in LDSF, indicating that the team did take less low danger shots, which would artificially raise their PDO due to less total shots. Among the previously named teams, LAK, PIT, and EDM were all top 10 in LDSF, indicating that those teams just threw the puck on net more often. The Oilers led the league in S/60, the Canucks were 26th.

I'm not denying that the Canucks will have a lower shooting percentage, I just think that a lot of that is overstated and the sky won't be falling.
 

Regal

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Mar 12, 2010
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yes.


and I would bet anyone expecting Canucks regression are expecting the same from the Canucks. I just see Canucks fans denying it. id also be a lot more concerned about Canucks regressing because their PDO I heavily inflated because of shooting %, a stat far more likely to regress than sv%

I mean there’s two different sources so whatever. The reality is they finished with a high PDO but similar to Boston and Winnipeg and not the insane best ever PDO that everyone was talking about by midseason.

I don’t actually see many Canucks fans denying some regression, but the “neutral” fans who claim it’s going to hit so hard are usually the ones who are using statistics poorly. The one post about the top 5 scorers was terrible. Hoglander and Joshua’s career shots per season is in no way a reflection of what they should be expected to do.

Again, the Canucks expected goals for last year was 13th in the league. That’s probably what they should be expected to regress to.
 
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krutovsdonut

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Sep 25, 2016
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DeBrusk is expected to replace the production of Lindholm/ Kuzmenko - well now you are in the realm of Delulu.

oh yes the vaunted lindholm/kuzmenko scoring combo. they had 14 goals for the canucks between them last season. how will debrusk ever score that many when he has only scored that many 6 times in his 7 year career?

another salty oilers fan with an inability to distinguish reality from wishful thinking when it comes to hockey self-identifies, (and not for the first time).

Darnell Nurse is going to win a Norris. If not now, someday.
 
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