Vancouver Canucks - Improve or Regress?

[TheOrangeDesk]

As another poster replied, there's conflicting information, so at best it's a statistical tie between multiple teams, and not a significant outlier. The other team has also managed to have an extremely high PDO for multiple seasons, far higher than the Canucks' PDO over that same period of time, which just shows that it is possible to have high PDO in consecutive years.

As for the shooting%, Tocchet famously has the team taking less shots, and specifically only shooting when there are screens or multiple screens in place. He's even said it himself in an interview, that he doesn't just want the team firing pucks for the sake of getting shots on net because the other team will just skate back the other way, which will lead to a higher S% naturally. The team's 5v5 S% this past season was 10.59%, which was the highest, but only by about half a percent, not like Boston's 103.6 PDO from 22-23.

The Canucks were also 6th in HDSF, and 23rd in LDSF (EDM, NJD, PIT, NYI, LAK) and 23rd in LDSF, indicating that the team did take less low danger shots, which would artificially raise their PDO due to less total shots. Among the previously named teams, LAK, PIT, and EDM were all top 10 in LDSF, indicating that those teams just threw the puck on net more often. The Oilers led the league in S/60, the Canucks were 26th.

I'm not denying that the Canucks will have a lower shooting percentage, I just think that a lot of that is overstated and the sky won't be falling.

agreed on almost all your points. but I see Canucks 14th for 5on5 HDSF. Im also not saying that the sky is falling. but expecting them to shoot at same rate is not being realistic. 10.61 at 5on5 is insane. no team has done it as far back as I could look (10 years) and many years no team breaks 10

 

[krutovsdonut]

agreed on almost all your points. but I see Canucks 14th for 5on5 HDSF. Im also not saying that the sky is falling. but expecting them to shoot at same rate is not being realistic. 10.61 at 5on5 is insane. no team has done it as far back as I could look (10 years) and many years no team breaks 10

they may not do it again. other teams adjusted to what the canucks did as the season went on and the shooting percentage dropped. but there is no question the high shooting percentage was not random fluke, but an offshoot of their game plan. the canucks played for sustained ozone possession first and shots second last season and were very selective in shots taken. that is bound to increase shooting percentage.

 

[Rowlet]

agreed on almost all your points. but I see Canucks 14th for 5on5 HDSF. Im also not saying that the sky is falling. but expecting them to shoot at same rate is not being realistic. 10.61 at 5on5 is insane. no team has done it as far back as I could look (10 years) and many years no team breaks 10

Moneypuck has them 6th (192), wonder how there could be such a large discrepancy.

10.6 is high, but someone gets to around 10.5 for the last 5 seasons as per Moneypuck. We'll see what happens but the thread premise is flawed anyways. Is a 45 win season where they finish 2nd in the division a regression? Do they have to miss the playoffs to "regress"? There's always going to be some metric that someone looks at to prove or disprove regression so it's not even worth thinking that hard about.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

they may not do it again. other teams adjusted to what the canucks did as the season went on and the shooting percentage dropped. but there is no question the high shooting percentage was not random fluke, but an offshoot of their game plan. the canucks played for sustained ozone possession first and shots second last season and were very selective in shots taken. that is bound to increase shooting percentage.

I disagree with this. Every team with a sky high shooting % claims this excuse. if Canucks were perfecting this strategy then they would have much higher HDCF (they are 14th 5on5). I'd also argue a good chunk of the league favours shot quality over quantity yet no team in at least 10 years has shot 10.61% at 5on5.

 

[geebster]

As others have said there will be regression. Not because the team got worse (it didn't, it's deeper now), but because other teams will take them more seriously and play up to them more. Early last year the Canucks surprised a lot of teams and ran the score up on them. Don't see that happening this year.

Lindholm was a bottom 6 guy and produced like it until the playoffs. The team is now deeper and better up front even though they lost him. Replacing Cole and Zadorov with Forbert and Desharnais is a downgrade, but if Soucy doesn't miss half the year then the D is a wash.

Division got worse, so with some regression I expect them to be around the same spot (competing for the division title). Barring major injuries of course.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Moneypuck has them 6th (192), wonder how there could be such a large discrepancy.

10.6 is high, but someone gets to around 10.5 for the last 5 seasons as per Moneypuck. We'll see what happens but the thread premise is flawed anyways. Is a 45 win season where they finish 2nd in the division a regression? Do they have to miss the playoffs to "regress"? There's always going to be some metric that someone looks at to prove or disprove regression so it's not even worth thinking that hard about.

oh really?! that is crazy how different they are but then again the public models are certainly flawed. personally, I'd put Canucks around 10th in league next year. which is certainly a drop but comfortably in playoffs

 

[BCNate]

They will still be one of the top teams in the NHL.
Forwards are much deeper and better than last year (Lafferty/Di Giuseppe/Beauvillier/Kuzmenko out, De Brusk/Sherwood/Heinen/Sprong in).

D is a little better than what they started the year with last year (Cole + Brisebois out, Forbort + Dessharnais in)

Silovs is a much better goalie than DeSmith, so we should be a bit better in net.

Allvin is certainly not done with this roster.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Small regression, probably aren’t winning the division next year. But depending on how top prospects, Lekkerimaki and Willander fare next season, with the latter a possibility to sign with the team around March, they could prove to be big contributors for 25/26.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Regression. Personally, I see a team that lacks offensive creativity throughout the lineup. Additionally that defense is going to struggle to move pucks outside of the top pairing. They do however play a very structured system, can roll 4 very respectable lines, and have great goaltending so they will certainly be a highly competitive team on a game to game basis but I don't think they have right mix of talent in order to truly compete. If I had to guess as of today, I'd say they are a first round exit next season, but there is time to address needs throughout the year.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I disagree with this. Every team with a sky high shooting % claims this excuse. if Canucks were perfecting this strategy then they would have much higher HDCF (they are 14th 5on5). I'd also argue a good chunk of the league favours shot quality over quantity yet no team in at least 10 years has shot 10.61% at 5on5.

that just is not so. "a good chunk of the league" was less selective than the canucks or, to be more specific, canucks were 26th in shooting and every team that took less shots than them missed the playoffs badly except the caps. the only "good" teams within hailing distance of the canuck low shot totals were tampa and boston which happen to be two of the best systems teams in the league which actually practice shot selection. that's not a fluke.

what that means is the canucks were more selective about shooting than every other team in the league capable of dictating when they took shots. the difference between a salty oilers fan spewing pdo nonsense and a real discussion about the canucks in these mainboard threads is the ability to recognize that reality. canucks fans who watched it all year know what happened. they took less shots on purpose and they won hockey games using that strategy, not in spite of it.

 

[Ace of Hades]

Hughes got outplayed by Bouchard when it mattered, Bouchard dominated that series, Canucks had no answer for him. Ekholm is also defensively IMO better than anyone on the Canucks, one of the most underrated D in the game. Their numbers in that series speak for themselves.

One play off series doesn't account for shit when you dont apply proper context with Hughes being injured while being one of the main targets for the Oilers to shut down. Bouchard plays with a better pairing D and two of the best players in the league on the PP. Bouchard also certainly wouldn't have dominated with Demko in net instead of an AHL starter. Besides a select few Oiler homers, it is well regarded that Hughes is ahead of Bouchard overall.

However I agree with Ekholm, he's fantastic. Speaking of underrated, Soucy is certainly up there as well.

 

[FlameChampion]

Regress I think (in regular season) because quite frankly everything pretty much went their way. I could see them having a better playoffs though(at least in terms of play).

They should still finish in the top 3 in their division because quite frankly most of the teams in the west got worse except for the Oilers and Nashville. Vancouver at least held their ground.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

that just is not so. "a good chunk of the league" was less selective than the canucks or, to be more specific, canucks were 26th in shooting and every team that took less shots than them missed the playoffs badly except the caps. the only "good" teams within hailing distance of the canuck low shot totals were tampa and boston which happen to be two of the best systems teams in the league which actually practice shot selection. that's not a fluke.

what that means is the canucks were more selective about shooting than every other team in the league capable of dictating when they took shots. the difference between a salty oilers fan spewing pdo nonsense and a real discussion about the canucks in these mainboard threads is the ability to recognize that reality. canucks fans who watched it all year know what happened. they took less shots on purpose and they won hockey games using that strategy, not in spite of it.

you're confusing correlation with causation. I also don't know who considers Tampa one of the best systems teams in the league anymore. Boston and Tampa are both meh teams propped up by vezina goaltending. every team attempts to get better shot opportunities

 

[Son of Petter]

Definitely a top-3 team in the div I’d say with Edmonton & Vegas. Division win will be difficult but should be a playoff lock barring major injuries. Forward depth is substantially better imo and I like the mix on D as well but feels like we need another guy back there. Demko needs to play ~ 50-55 games max to stay healthy for the playoffs, so a lot will count on Silovs being above .900 in the NHL.

 

[arttk]

No idea why you're on such a bender to downplay the Canucks offense. You want to criticize their D or health of Demko I'm all ears; but chopping their offense makes no sense the group is very clearly in a better spot going in to the season.

well he's still bitter that the team was good when he predicted that the team would suck and we should've rebuilt instead.

 

[Rowlet]

oh really?! that is crazy how different they are but then again the public models are certainly flawed. personally, I'd put Canucks around 10th in league next year. which is certainly a drop but comfortably in playoffs

Yeah, I think realistically, most fans predict a 2nd/3rd place in the division and a team in the top third. Anything higher than that is a bonus, but also this team looks like it could compete more in the playoffs, the team added a ton of grit all throughout the lineup.

 

[strattonius]

well he's still bitter that the team was good when he predicted that the team would suck and we should've rebuilt instead.

Using Kuzmenko, Mikheyev and Lafferty as an argument to all this lost offense is baffling.

 

[Strangelove]

The Canucks roster is clearly worse than their post trade deadline roster last year, and it’s debatable about whether they’re better than the team going into the season last year

Looking forward to you debating the posters who challenged you on this.

I'm convinced it's a better team going into next season than last.

It's not debatable to me.

 

[centipede2233]

Agree on the health issues being major. I just have visions of the Sens when they barely lost to the Pens in 2016 and thought that they were "right there". I think the Canucks are a better team than that OTT squad, but they certainly had a lot go right for them last year. The Canucks also have a solid core identified - and given the relative weakness of the Pacific I'd be shocked if they didn't make the P/O's.

They will definately make the playoffs. They are a very good team in the weaker conference.

 

[Rowlet]

Looking forward to you debating the posters who challenged you on this.

I'm convinced it's a better team going into next season than last.

It's not debatable to me.

Lol yeah, it's not even close, not sure what's going on with that poster.

Changes:

Heinen > Lafferty
DeBrusk > Kuzmenko
Sherwood > Beauvillier
Anybody > Mikheyev

Forbort > Brisebois
Desharnais < Ian Cole

Silovs > DeSmith

 

[arttk]

Using Kuzmenko, Mikheyev and Lafferty as an argument to all this lost offense is baffling.

anything to make it seem like the forward depth is worse..

Management added players to make this more of a Tocchet team. Tocchet wants a hard forechecking team that can capitalize on turnovers and on paper and the additions this offseason enables this. We can roll 4 lines that can forecheck and each line should have 1 or 2 finishers. The biggest weakness last year was PK and on paper we've improved quite a bit so improvement is going to come really from being even harder to score against. This will make us a better regular season team and we'll see what Allvin & co will do around trade deadline to make this a better playoff team that last season's playoff team.

 

[K1984]

Lol yeah, it's not even close, not sure what's going on with that poster.

Changes:

Heinen > Lafferty
DeBrusk > Kuzmenko
Sherwood > Beauvillier
Anybody > Mikheyev

Forbort > Brisebois
Desharnais < Ian Cole

Silovs > DeSmith

Who replaced Lindholm and Zadorov?

 

[jackjohnson]

The Pacific doesn’t stink in the slightest. Edmonton is as good as any teams in the league, Vegas isn’t too far back, LA has been a ~100 point team for quite a while, and even Seattle is only one year removed from putting up 100 points (and had 2 big signings this summer). There are 5 teams who could make the playoffs without being a surprise in the slightest



Go look at any number of threads. It’s been well documented just how lucky of a season the Canucks had. And you’re really going to claim Pettersson had a worse injury than McDavid? He didn’t even miss any games, whereas McDavid played almost the entire year noticeably hurt (he couldn’t shoot and his goal total cut in half) and he did miss games.



Lindholm and Kuzmenko might not have been great last year, but they both still outproduced Debrusk who’s replacing them, and I doubt you’ll find anyone outside of Vancouver that thinks he’ll outscore either of them this year.

The Canucks roster is clearly worse than their post trade deadline roster last year, and it’s debatable about whether they’re better than the team going into the season last year



They’re definitely my bet for 3rd in the Pacific, but LA and Seattle are better than people give them credit for. That said, the 3 pieces they realistically need to try and compete (3C, top 4 dman, and maybe another top 9 winger), are pretty attainable at the deadline, and would probably push them closer to top 2 in the division

You clearly dont watch Canucks unless you think Ian Cole and Kuzmenko are superstar players that will be missed while Canucks only added 10 players in the off season which adds to nothing

Theyre a playoff team if everything goes right

They are a playoff team regardless, unless you think Flames will go into playoffs. Vegas was last in conference last year and are even worst this year. LA is not that great and they keep playing theor boring 1-3-1 style and will lose again in playoffs against the Oil. The only team that makes the pacific division is Canucks and Oilers.

 

[jackjohnson]

Who replaced Lindholm and Zadorov?

Lindholm and Zadorov were not in the lineup during the 1st game of the season. They were trade deadline additions which had their prorated salary counted against the cap not their full cap hit. You should compare rosters at start of the season. Canucks will add again to their lineup so we will get another Zadorov and Lindholm plus the additions from this off season. We would ineviteably be better than last season barring any major injuries.

 

[jackjohnson]

anything to make it seem like the forward depth is worse..

Management added players to make this more of a Tocchet team. Tocchet wants a hard forechecking team that can capitalize on turnovers and on paper and the additions this offseason enables this. We can roll 4 lines that can forecheck and each line should have 1 or 2 finishers. The biggest weakness last year was PK and on paper we've improved quite a bit so improvement is going to come really from being even harder to score against. This will make us a better regular season team and we'll see what Allvin & co will do around trade deadline to make this a better playoff team that last season's playoff team.

I agree, we added very good PKers like Deharnais and Forbort. I dont care what people say abput Zadorov but he kind of sucked on the PK where Deharnais and Forbort are better and block shots. DeBrusk will at least equal Lindholm in PK ability while Heinen, Sherwood can also PK better than someone like Kuzy or Lafferty. Canucks improved a lot on PK based on personnel changes, improved on hitting and physical ability and offense is now more dynamic imo.