Vancouver Canucks - Improve or Regress?

[BHD]

Bubble team. They did enough in the offseason to remain in the mix.

 

[Ace of Hades]

That's kinda my point, he's phenomenal in the regular season but he's not a dominant force in the playoffs.

Kinda like how Matthews can win all the rockets he wants, it's meaningless if that dominance doesn't carry over to the playoffs

You legit got this off of one series where he was underwhelming (while playing through an injury)? Must have been one of those people who you used to say the same about Datsyuk too.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Canucks are on the rise. Their loss to the Oiles reminds me of Crosby's penguins losing to a legendary Detroit team full of Hall of fame players.

The Canucks are young and improving and Hughes is every bit the leader and captain that Crosby was. Hughes will not be denied.

 

[Strangelove]

I don’t understand you people.

They lost Elias Lindholm who was Kuzmenko for most of the regular season and replaced them with Jake DeBrusk. The rest of their forward additions were players no one wanted. And somehow, they’re “better” up front?

I don’t understand HF logic.

They got worse on defense. They got worse on forwards. Demko is always injured. Just tell the truth.

Lindholm played just 26 regular season games for Canucks.

He and Kuz stank it up in the regular season.

No one wanted Heinen or Sherwood?

I'd take either one over Mikheyev, who also stank.

Demko has averaged 49 regular season games over 3 years.

Zadorov was a mid-season pickup.

Better Nuck team to start the season than the one that started last season.

Canucks have quietly improved...

 

[Maple Leaf]

They are done
They don't even have washrooms near the skytrain

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I like them a lot. They need their key players to stay healthy and need EP to get another level.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Down the pooper

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

soucy is an okay 4th/5th guy. he's not a clear cut top 4 guy by any means. myers sucks. forbort and desharnais are very limited. there isn't a worse second pairing in the league than soucy/myers and forbort/desharnais has to be close to the worst third pairing

none of the other guys you listed are anywhere close to the nhl

Uh, Soucy is a decent 3 really good 4. Saying there isn't a worse second pairing is utterly hilarious and makes one wonder if you can name 50 players in the league who don't play for the Canucks (which I know you can). Like it's just a hilarious take. Like the Avs are a team whom everyone blows as being "Zomg the greatest" (and they're a good team) and they currently have Manson and Girard as a second pairing. You could argue that might be a better 2nd pairing, but not by a great deal.

I think people really forget how different we looked during the year with Soucy versus without. I also think that his frequent lower body injuries took a toll on him where he wasn't as good later in the year and playoffs as he was for the bulk of the first 2/3s or 3/4s. He's not the same nuclear deterrent, nor as capable of the odd sublime bit of skill, but game by game he's much more solid than Zadorov. Myers also gets a bad rap because he was far overpaid and asked to do too much with the wrong partners. But with Soucy he's a capable penalty killer and a decent #4.

He's not the Platonic ideal of a #4, but you look around the league and most D cores are stretched thin.

I agree that our depth isn't great if a top 4 goes down. Not loving the idea of Desharnais or Forbort playing 20 minutes unprotected, even for short periods. But 'the bottom pairings are the worst in the league' is just emotionally driven or else it's ignorant.

They'll go as far as Miller and Demko take them, those are the real alphas on the team. EP40 and to a lesser extent Hughes have shown they ain't carrying a team for shit when the going gets tough

This is the quality of take I would expect from someone who unironically says 'alphas'.

 

[JianYang]

They will be top 3 in the division as the division is super weak and it wont be a race. Anaheim is awful, San Jose is terrible, Seattle improved a bit but not a major playoff team and probably bubble team, Calgary is worst than last year with players they lost in Markstrom, zadorov, lindholm and possibly Kadri, vegas will regress big time due to loss of Marchy, Stephenson, Carrier, etc. LA isnt that great since they lost depth due to PLD trade then traded PLD for bag of pucks. So whp do we have left?? Vancouver and Edmonton. I mean where is the competition in pacific since most teams regressed in this division?

I don't think they will be competing for top spot in the league again, but they should be good regardless of the whether the division is strong or weak.

 

[Rowlet]

Is it considered a regression if the Oilers win the Pacific? There's a good chance that happens. Do I think the team misses the playoffs? Probably not.

Compared to last season's opening night, the F is better, the D is the same if not better and the G is marginally better. Did everyone forget that the 2023 opening night roster had Noah Juulsen, Guillaume Brisebois, and Ian Cole? Is Desharnais and Forbort really a downgrade?

When the Canucks make a mid-season trade for a D everyone will forget all about this. Their major losses were deadline additions.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

I think a lot of people are making the mistake of comparing our outlook with the roster we had (and how well our depth was playing) during the most prominent 13 games of the season (playoffs).

We have a better team than we did at the beginning of last season, and one that is made much more in the image of our coach and GM.

I do think our Defensive depth is slightly worse, but that will be addressed in-season.

People saying we had no injuries are missing the point. Now, Hughes makes our team tick and if he misses 60 games, we will be battling for a wildcard spot and might not make it, but that's true of almost every team if they lose their straw that stirs the drink.

We lost Demko for a prominent and important stretch and began playing really conservatively to make up for it. Tocchet has acknowledged that at times the team overcorrected for the excessively permissive style they had played previously and became completely risk-averse. So I think we will be better even should that happen again. But people forget that having a top 5 goaltender in the league for 5 million per year is one of our biggest competitive advantages and for months that advantage was nullified.

Carson Soucy was a real tipping point player for our team in terms of how stout and capable we looked defensively. We missed him for long stretches as well, but when he was in (and before his constant lower body injuries rendered him less effective later in the year) we looked like a juggernaut with him anchoring the 2nd pairing.

Elias Pettersson is a top 5-7 center in the league and from January on he played like he was on the fringes of like top 35-40 due, in large part, to tendonitis in the knee. If you want to argue that Hughes may not be quite as superlative as last year, it's fair to argue Pettersson will likely be far better and he's a serious needle mover for a team.

Our offensive depth is far superior. Kuzmenko struggled after his Eat, Pray, Love training in Bali, and never fit into Tocchet's system. Lindholm was good at the small things, but ineffective for most of the regular season. Zadorov was literally acquired for a 3rd and a 5th. He was great when it mattered, but let's not paint it like we lost Scott Stevens.

People point to the PDO bender we started the season on, and I think that was important psychologically to convince the team that they were different than the one that would wilt under pressure or adversity from before. It helped provide even more instant buy-in (after the team thrived under Tocchet late in the previous year in 'meaningless' time down the stretch).

We're a team that is going to have a higher PDO naturally as we have a good goalie, we keep shots outside, we have some one shot scorers, and we play a possession game where we don't waste shots. That said, we probably won't be flirting with breaking records again, but we won't need to because we have our identity more solidly defined. So we won't be as threatened if a slump happens.

Overall, I expect a slight regular season 'regression' down closer to 100 points, and to be a little better in the playoffs as our team is a little better, our forecheck a little more relentless, and our stars a little more blooded playoff wise. But the most exciting thing to me, is that we're at the start of our window. When Willander and Lekkerimaki are contributing on ELC's is when our real window starts in earnest in my eyes, and it's coming pretty soon.

Canucks fans have really been through the wringer, and I can't promise we get a cup here, but it's just getting fun and that is so, so welcome.

 

[TheNumber4]

They’ll regress but not that it matters. That core of EP, Hughes, and Miller ain’t doing anything significant in this League during the playoffs, ever. Beating Nashville doesn’t count for anything.

 

[credulous]

Uh, Soucy is a decent 3 really good 4. Saying there isn't a worse second pairing is utterly hilarious and makes one wonder if you can name 50 players in the league who don't play for the Canucks (which I know you can). Like it's just a hilarious take. Like the Avs are a team whom everyone blows as being "Zomg the greatest" (and they're a good team) and they currently have Manson and Girard as a second pairing. You could argue that might be a better 2nd pairing, but not by a great deal.

are soucy and myers (at 3m per) better value than girard and manson? yeah probably

are they a better pairing? absolutely not

i'm not gonna go through every team in the league but off the top of my head the only teams who might have worse bottom 4 defenses are anaheim (but that could change if mintyukov/lacombe/luneau/zellweger improve enough to supplant fowler and gudas), calgary (who aren't even trying and are still probably better), columbus (but only because they're still playing provorov and gudbranson for some reason), dallas (who have harley in their bottom 4 but also some real trash) and montreal (but see anaheim)

soucy looked good to start the season but i don't think it's a coincidence that his play fell off when the teams shooting percentage came back to earth and they stopped winning every game in a blowout. he looked downright bad in the playoffs when the intensity stepped up. i think he's a pretty great 5th dman but someone who gets exposed when forced to play higher leverage minutes. same story for myers. he looks fine when he's playing short minutes and isn't asked to do too much but as soon as he needs to perform he wilts

 

[Qwijibo]

Joshua, Hoglander, Boeser and Miller all hovered around 20% shooting percentage last season. It's unrealistic to expect they can match that this season. I expect we'll see a regression on the offence.

That said they're still easily a playoff team. I doubt they take the division title again but they shouldn't be in any danger of falling out of the top 3 in the Pacific

 

[Gurglesons]

Regress without question.

 

[PeteEakins]

We lost Kuzmenko who had 10 goals in 50 games and was scratched for 25 games and replaced him with 30 goal scorer Debrusk who is very strong defensively, Danton Heinen who can put up 20 goals and Sprong who can put 20 goals and 40 points up along with Sherwood who is a banger on the 4th line. We lost Kuzmenko who barely played, we didnt lose Gretzky here and we added 4 to 5 good forwards to compensate for that, so i dont get how they got weaker in Forward. Please explain that part to me because it makes zero sense?

Jake DeBrusk has never scored 30 goals in his NHL career. Who are you talking about?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

the team is not appreciably different than the bulk of last year, a little deeper up front, less experienced and probably a little weaker on D.

but last year was extremely healthy until the playoffs and you can’t count on that every year, so a regression just based on projecting for an injury or two to a key player in the rs.

 

[The Nuge]

The Pacific stinks. You actually think there are 3 teams better than them?

The Pacific doesn’t stink in the slightest. Edmonton is as good as any teams in the league, Vegas isn’t too far back, LA has been a ~100 point team for quite a while, and even Seattle is only one year removed from putting up 100 points (and had 2 big signings this summer). There are 5 teams who could make the playoffs without being a surprise in the slightest

We had Petersson injury in January which made him ineffective, soucy injury for months and Demko being out 2 months along with others yet we made not only the playoffs but won the division. How were we really "lucky"?? If anything Oilers were lucky with schedule last year and McDavid being only injured for a week while the rest of the oilers lineup was healthy

Go look at any number of threads. It’s been well documented just how lucky of a season the Canucks had. And you’re really going to claim Pettersson had a worse injury than McDavid? He didn’t even miss any games, whereas McDavid played almost the entire year noticeably hurt (he couldn’t shoot and his goal total cut in half) and he did miss games.

Lindholm played just 26 regular season games for Canucks.

He and Kuz stank it up in the regular season.

No one wanted Heinen or Sherwood?

I'd take either one over Mikheyev, who also stank.

Demko has averaged 49 regular season games over 3 years.

Zadorov was a mid-season pickup.

Better Nuck team to start the season than the one that started last season.

Canucks have quietly improved...

Lindholm and Kuzmenko might not have been great last year, but they both still outproduced Debrusk who’s replacing them, and I doubt you’ll find anyone outside of Vancouver that thinks he’ll outscore either of them this year.

The Canucks roster is clearly worse than their post trade deadline roster last year, and it’s debatable about whether they’re better than the team going into the season last year

Joshua, Hoglander, Boeser and Miller all hovered around 20% shooting percentage last season. It's unrealistic to expect they can match that this season. I expect we'll see a regression on the offence.

That said they're still easily a playoff team. I doubt they take the division title again but they shouldn't be in any danger of falling out of the top 3 in the Pacific

They’re definitely my bet for 3rd in the Pacific, but LA and Seattle are better than people give them credit for. That said, the 3 pieces they realistically need to try and compete (3C, top 4 dman, and maybe another top 9 winger), are pretty attainable at the deadline, and would probably push them closer to top 2 in the division

 

[MessierII]

Regress but stay too 3 in the div

 

[Czechboy]

Same or better... Nice looking squad. Demko should have a solid backup. Hronek may be more consistent throughout the whole season. Hughes should be his elite self.

 

[LemonSauceD]

The Pacific doesn’t stink in the slightest. Edmonton is as good as any teams in the league, Vegas isn’t too far back, LA has been a ~100 point team for quite a while, and even Seattle is only one year removed from putting up 100 points (and had 2 big signings this summer). There are 5 teams who could make the playoffs without being a surprise in the slightest

sorry but the pacific is absolutely trash. Anaheim and San Jose are literally bottom 3 in the league with Calgary poised to join them. Seattle is barely a middle of the pack team and have no real star power and goaltending that could propel them above the others, and LA is likely going to be in a fierce wild card battle with a vastly improved Utah/Arizona team and one of Jets/Stars/Preds/Avs with Minnesota hovering around as well.

 

[Regal]

The Pacific doesn’t stink in the slightest. Edmonton is as good as any teams in the league, Vegas isn’t too far back, LA has been a ~100 point team for quite a while, and even Seattle is only one year removed from putting up 100 points (and had 2 big signings this summer). There are 5 teams who could make the playoffs without being a surprise in the slightest



Go look at any number of threads. It’s been well documented just how lucky of a season the Canucks had. And you’re really going to claim Pettersson had a worse injury than McDavid? He didn’t even miss any games, whereas McDavid played almost the entire year noticeably hurt (he couldn’t shoot and his goal total cut in half) and he did miss games.



Lindholm and Kuzmenko might not have been great last year, but they both still outproduced Debrusk who’s replacing them, and I doubt you’ll find anyone outside of Vancouver that thinks he’ll outscore either of them this year.

The Canucks roster is clearly worse than their post trade deadline roster last year, and it’s debatable about whether they’re better than the team going into the season last year



They’re definitely my bet for 3rd in the Pacific, but LA and Seattle are better than people give them credit for. That said, the 3 pieces they realistically need to try and compete (3C, top 4 dman, and maybe another top 9 winger), are pretty attainable at the deadline, and would probably push them closer to top 2 in the division

This doesn’t make any sense. We’re comparing what DeBrusk might do this year compared to what those two did last year, not what they might do this year. Last year they provided the team with a whopping 33 combined points. Even if DeBrusk just plays like he did last year he’ll be a regular season upgrade.

The division is bad in the sense that 3 of the teams are bottom feeders and Seattle is a playoff long shot. The team only having to beat out LA and maaybe Seattle to secure a top 3 spot is a good situation to be in.

 

[CraigBillington]

Theyre a playoff team if everything goes right

 

[strattonius]

Lindholm and Kuzmenko might not have been great last year, but they both still outproduced Debrusk who’s replacing them, and I doubt you’ll find anyone outside of Vancouver that thinks he’ll outscore either of them this year.

The Canucks roster is clearly worse than their post trade deadline roster last year, and it’s debatable about whether they’re better than the team going into the season last year

Did you overlook every offseason addition?

IN
Debrusk - 19g 21a 40 pts
Heinen - 17g 19a 36 pts
Sherwood - 10g 17a 27 pts
Sprong - 18g 25a 43 pts
Totals 64g 100a 164 pts

Lots of upside here.

 OUT
Lindholm -15g 29a 44pts
Mikheyev - 11g 20a 31pts
Kuzmenko - 22g 24a 46 pts
Totals 48g 73a 121 pts

I think we have a more deep and versatile group of forwards. We dont miss Kuzmenko, he wasn't buying in to systems play and was a liability in his own zone - not a fwd we can trust in the playoffs.

The team is very clearly in a better spot to start the season as compared to last year; and a ton of the dialogue on our own forum has reflected those feelings. We feel we need another top 4 d-man, but we are very confident with our forward group and goaltending.

 

[credulous]

Did you overlook every offseason addition?

IN
Debrusk - 19g 21a 40 pts
Heinen - 17g 19a 36 pts
Sherwood - 10g 17a 27 pts
Sprong - 18g 25a 43 pts
Totals 64g 100a 164 pts

Lots of upside here.

 OUT
Lindholm -15g 29a 44pts
Mikheyev - 11g 20a 31pts
Kuzmenko - 22g 24a 46 pts
Totals 48g 73a 121 pts

I think we have a more deep and versatile group of forwards. We dont miss Kuzmenko, he wasn't buying in to systems play and was a liability in his own zone - not a fwd we can trust in the playoffs.

The team is very clearly in a better spot to start the season as compared to last year; and a ton of the dialogue on our own forum has reflected those feelings. We feel we need another top 4 d-man, but we are very confident with our forward group and goaltending.

what lazy analysis

heinen and mikheyev at 5v5 were basically identical production wise (14 goals and 31 points for heinen vs 11 goals and 30 points for mikheyev) last year in similar minutes (heinen 935 minutes vs mikheyev 946 minutes). neither of them really saw power play time regularly

debrusk vs kuzmenko/lindholm was tilted towards debrusk (13 goals and 25 points for debrusk vs 7 goals and 20 points for kuzmenko and lindholm) but that was with lindholm being utterly terrible for vancouver in the regular season (2 goals and 4 assists) and with debrusk playing nearly 25% more minutes than kuzmenko/lindholm played in vancouver combined (1015 vs 776). debrusk is a worse power play performer than either kuzmenko or lindholm but he presumably won't get much time on the power play in vancouver anyways

(also lindholm is a center and debrusk is not, so there's that)

sherwood and lafferty is close but sherwood had the better season so there's a slight edge there even though they both played 4th line minutes

as for sprong yeah he's a good offensive player but he's a terrible defensive player and if he gets ice time it's going to be at the expense of heinen, sherwood or possibly hoglander. he's definitely more productive than someone like di giuseppe but even if you give the minutes di giuseppe played with miller and boeser to sprong you still need to come up with another ~500 minutes for him to get the same opportunity he got in detroit