Confirmed with Link: [VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21), 2019 3rd, Marek Mazanec for J.T. Miller

[Teflon Jim]

What are many posters saying here?

Make a concise argument.

I just told you since you appeared to not understand or at least asked me if I understand for no reason I can see.
Read comments to find out what posters say is a start.
Its a bad trade because we are still building based on the evidence of the last four non playoff years and theres no proof other then projection of future playoffs.
I expect we'll make them within a few years but in two years maybe pushing it.
I see this as a short term gain at the expense of the future.
In four years the first should be having an impact and Miller will be on the other side of 30 .
Perhaps it'll be like NJD watching Horvat rise while Schneider is on the decline.
I like the player but don't think hes the key to making us the playoffs and believing Aquamans tweet that the dark days are over after declaring we're rebuilding just two years ago leaves me pretty leary.
I see it as a meddling owner looking to get back in the playoffs so his cash cow can get vack to making him lots of money.

 

[coastal_nuck]

I’m completely okay with the Canucks having this approach, I think they’re past the point of hoarding picks and you move futures for prime aged players on good contracts.

I like J.T. Miller, I think he’s the best player out of the Bolts tweeter wingers. But the issue here is paying around market value, if not higher for this player. It’s clearly a buyers market right now with so many teams having cap problems. You have an abundance of cap space, use it as an asset. This doesn’t mean acquiring picks for bad contracts only, it’s bringing in good players on teams with cap problems and getting them at a fraction of the cost. Look at how Gillis acquired Christian Ehrhoff.

Jim Benning has tunnel vision and doesn’t understand the concept of negotiation and leverage. In a vacuum this isn’t catastrophic if you A) think this team is close to the playoffs or B) Vancouver doesn’t have leverage.

I just don’t see a management team I have any confidence in, I have Jimbo some credit last night, but he just isn’t the guy I have faith in to put this team together.

The problem with points A and B is that neither criteria is met. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks miss the playoffs next year and quite possibly the year after. Will we get close? Possible but I don't see us come close to contending. I would have much rather a potential core player in a first rounder. On point B, as stated by several others, Tampa was in a cap crunch and would have had to find a way to shed some salary regardless. Just happens that we took the bait and paid a first rounder in the same instance.

 

[Cancuks]

I don't hate Miller but I hate this trade for many reasons. Now we can't make any RFA offer sheets for the next two seasons. We've taken ourselves right out of the running for Panarin and likely Hall as well next season. If the Canucks do luck out and are somehow in a playoff spot we're missing that 1st rd. chip to offer up at the deadline to get better. We have an overload of mediocre second tier forwards who we shouldn't expect more than 15 goals from. And knowing our luck, the 1st we give up in 2021 will be the #1 overall. Bad on so many levels.

 

[just22]

I love how the narrative goes from “Benning is a draft guru” to “we would’ve drafted a Gaunce anyways” once a pick is traded.

Why do I even bother going to r/canucks

 

[Melvin]

I’m completely okay with the Canucks having this approach, I think they’re past the point of hoarding picks and you move futures for prime aged players on good contracts.

I like J.T. Miller, I think he’s the best player out of the Bolts tweeter wingers. But the issue here is paying around market value, if not higher for this player. It’s clearly a buyers market right now with so many teams having cap problems. You have an abundance of cap space, use it as an asset. This doesn’t mean acquiring picks for bad contracts only, it’s bringing in good players on teams with cap problems and getting them at a fraction of the cost. Look at how Gillis acquired Christian Ehrhoff.

Jim Benning has tunnel vision and doesn’t understand the concept of negotiation and leverage. In a vacuum this isn’t catastrophic if you A) think this team is close to the playoffs or B) Vancouver doesn’t have leverage.

I just don’t see a management team I have any confidence in, I have Jimbo some credit last night, but he just isn’t the guy I have faith in to put this team together.

I think you overstate the leverage they had. The bolts were in the optimal position of being so deep they could afford to deal a player who is actually a valuable asset. The canucks wouldn't have been the only team in on Miller so it's not as simple as them having all the leverage.

Again, we all agree that the 1st having the potential to be even 1st overall makes this probably too risky for a team like the canucks to take, but if you think the canucks are close to contention its hard to see how you can dislike this deal. You're getting a good player locked in through his prime at a great rate, and if you make the playoffs then this is at best the 16th overall pick, which is easily fair value for this player on that contract signed through those ages.

I literally had someone say to me in an argument that the canucks would have made the playoffs if not for gudbranson last year. If you believe that (and I don't) then this deal makes perfect sense.

As I mentioned the Coyotes recently traded 7th overall for Stepan and as I recall people here thought it was a good deal. I think I ironically didn't like it.

Again I don't think it's a good deal but only because I don't see this team as being close to contention, and even then I don't think it's horrendous. In my opinion, people are completely overreacting to losing a first round pick, are undervaluing the impact of having a quality young player under contract for below market value, and are overstating the leverage Vancouver had in negotiations, which Tampa probably was having with several other teams.

Yes, if the pick becomes top 3 or something then it's a disaster, and I think vancityluongo is correct that the risk of that happening is too much for a team in Vancouver's position to take, but I do think there are things to like about the deal, and I don't think people are treating it fairly because they just have imbued first round picks with this kind of aura that is not entirely grounded in reason.i would not have done this deal, but if i held the view that the canucks are a 90ish point team next year, then I probably would.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

I love how the narrative goes from “Benning is a draft guru” to “we would’ve drafted a Gaunce anyways” once a pick is traded.

Why do I even bother going to r/canucks

This trade was stupid. Waste of a first-round pick.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I don't hate Miller but I hate this trade for many reasons. Now we can't make any RFA offer sheets for the next two seasons. We've taken ourselves right out of the running for Panarin and likely Hall as well next season. If the Canucks do luck out and are somehow in a playoff spot we're missing that 1st rd. chip to offer up at the deadline to get better. We have an overload of mediocre second tier forwards who we shouldn't expect more than 15 goals from. And knowing our luck, the 1st we give up in 2021 will be the #1 overall. Bad on so many levels.

At this point, the Canucks are just trying to get in the playoffs....Usually,the teams which are coughing up 1sts at the TDL are SC contenders (which we obviously are not).

Speaking of playoffs...78% of posters here, see the team not getting a sniff of the post season.

 

[Jyrki21]

It occurred to me that I thought JT Miller and JT Brown (and possibly Tyler Johnson) were all the same guy.

 

[Addison Rae]

I think you overstate the leverage they had. The bolts were in the optimal position of being so deep they could afford to deal a player who is actually a valuable asset. The canucks wouldn't have been the only team in on Miller so it's not as simple as them having all the leverage.

Again, we all agree that the 1st having the potential to be even 1st overall makes this probably too risky for a team like the canucks to take, but if you think the canucks are close to contention its hard to see how you can dislike this deal. You're getting a good player locked in through his prime at a great rate, and if you make the playoffs then this is at best the 16th overall pick, which is easily fair value for this player on that contract signed through those ages.

I literally had someone say to me in an argument that the canucks would have made the playoffs if not for gudbranson last year. If you believe that (and I don't) then this deal makes perfect sense.

As I mentioned the Coyotes recently traded 7th overall for Stepan and as I recall people here thought it was a good deal. I think I ironically didn't like it.

Again I don't think it's a good deal but only because I don't see this team as being close to contention, and even then I don't think it's horrendous. In my opinion, people are completely overreacting to losing a first round pick, are undervaluing the impact of having a quality young player under contract for below market value, and are overstating the leverage Vancouver had in negotiations, which Tampa probably was having with several other teams.

Yes, if the pick becomes top 3 or something then it's a disaster, and I think vancityluongo is correct that the risk of that happening is too much for a team in Vancouver's position to take, but I do think there are things to like about the deal, and I don't think people are treating it fairly because they just have imbued first round picks with this kind of aura that is not entirely grounded in reason.i would not have done this deal, but if i held the view that the canucks are a 90ish point team next year, then I probably would.

If other teams are offering similar assets, you back away from the deal then. That's a problem I have with Benning, he gets tunnel vision in deals and does a poor job of negotiating.

You have some of the most cap space in the league use it as an asset. There's other teams out there that are in cap trouble that have good players they're going to move based on their cap crunch.

Stepan was an excellent even strength producing centre with defensive prowess, I think he was a more valuable player when being traded. I also think Antti Raanta was a big part of that deal for Arizona.

 

[Melvin]

As for the 1st, let's look at it with math, because math is fun.

There is a 0% chance it is a top-15 pick next season. But, there is some % chance it is a 16-31 pick next season. That's important. We will call that X.

2020 1-15 - 0%
2020 16-31 - X%

Now, if they miss the playoffs (1-X) then it could be anything in 2021. So:

2020 1-15 - 0%
2020 16-31 - X%
2021 1-31 - (1-X%)

Let's say you put them at 25% playoffs in both years. Then it's

2020 1-15 - 0%
2020 16-31 - 25%
2021 1-15 - 75% * 75% = 56. 25%
2021 16-31 - 75% * 25% = 18.75%

That's being pretty pessimistic. If you think 50% next year and maybe 60% the year after then it's

2020 1-15 - 0%
2020 16-31 - 50%
2021 1-15 - 50% * 40% = 20%
2021 16-31 - 50% * 60% = 30%

As you can see, the fact that they've made it playoff protected for next season helps swing the probabilities in their favor. Up to the reader to determine where you peg the breakeven point in terms of how you view the team and what risk you're willing to take.

 

[Melvin]

If other teams are offering similar assets, you back away from the deal then. That's a problem I have with Benning, he gets tunnel vision in deals and does a poor job of negotiating.

You have some of the most cap space in the league use it as an asset. There's other teams out there that are in cap trouble that have good players they're going to move based on their cap crunch.

Stepan was an excellent even strength producing centre with defensive prowess, I think he was a more valuable player when being traded. I also think Antti Raanta was a big part of that deal for Arizona.

I have nothing positive to say about Benning, who I think is the dumbest man in the sport, but I'm just saying there's more to it than saying that Tampa was backed into a corner and we should have been able to destroy them. That's a fantasy. Tampa isn't stupid, and were not that desperate. Again, they had the enviable position of having a guy like Miller who is basically expendable. I agree there's a point where you should walk away, and they probably should have, but I do think people are oversimplifying things a bit. If they walk away Tampa probably gets a similar deal from another team. They weren't in some terrible situation, they were actually in a position that everyone wishes their team was in, an embarrassment of riches.

I just love targeting a player like Miller, undervalued because he's buried on an elite team, and because he's signed to a good value contract that expires before he turns 30. The fact that the team is targeting the right assets is a positive to me, even if they exposed themselves to more risk than they probably should have given their position. This is so much better than targeting someone like gudbranson, or making it a priority to sign a 35 year old goalie, and there is at least a somewhat decent chance that this deal works out well for them, which is completely ignored because people can't fathom the thought of watching a draft where their favourite team doesn't have a first! Round! Pick!

 

[BWJM]

January 2020 - Canucks stay healthy and sitting nicely in a playoff position. Miller clicks with Pettersson/Horvat on pace for 65+ all of HFboards “Wow Benning is a genius!!!”

One can only hope right? Lol

 

[Addison Rae]

I have nothing positive to say about Benning, who I think is the dumbest man in the sport, but I'm just saying there's more to it than saying that Tampa was backed into a corner and we should have been able to destroy them. That's a fantasy. Tampa isn't stupid, and were not that desperate. Again, they had the enviable position of having a guy like Miller who is basically expendable. I agree there's a point where you should walk away, and they probably should have, but I do think people are oversimplifying things a bit. If they walk away Tampa probably gets a similar deal from another team. They weren't in some terrible situation, they were actually in a position that everyone wishes their team was in, an embarrassment of riches.

I just love targeting a player like Miller, undervalued because he's buried on an elite team, and because he's signed to a good value contract that expires before he turns 30. The fact that the team is targeting the right assets is a positive to me, even if they exposed themselves to more risk than they probably should have given their position. This is so much better than targeting someone like gudbranson, or making it a priority to sign a 35 year old goalie, and there is at least a somewhat decent chance that this deal works out well for them, which is completely ignored because people can't fathom the thought of watching a draft where their favourite team doesn't have a first! Round! Pick!

I can't say I disagree with the last paragraph, I do think Jim Benning has made progress. Absolutely not the guy who's going to turn the ship around, but JT Miller was a good target and is a good player. I also have zero problem with the Canucks trading a 1st round pick, I would have easily traded the 10th pick for the right player.

I think the team would have been in a better situation making a deal for a top 4 RHD and trying to coup a forward in free agency, I think it's pretty much inevitable now that they're going to sign Myers to an absurd contract.

If you were able to get a guy like Dougie Hamilton or Nick Leddy for futures and sign someone like Donskoi, Connolly, Zuccarello etc or maybe even circle back on the trade market later in the summer for a forward.

 

[RobertKron]

I have nothing positive to say about Benning, who I think is the dumbest man in the sport, but I'm just saying there's more to it than saying that Tampa was backed into a corner and we should have been able to destroy them. That's a fantasy. Tampa isn't stupid, and were not that desperate. Again, they had the enviable position of having a guy like Miller who is basically expendable. I agree there's a point where you should walk away, and they probably should have, but I do think people are oversimplifying things a bit. If they walk away Tampa probably gets a similar deal from another team. They weren't in some terrible situation, they were actually in a position that everyone wishes their team was in, an embarrassment of riches.

I just love targeting a player like Miller, undervalued because he's buried on an elite team, and because he's signed to a good value contract that expires before he turns 30. The fact that the team is targeting the right assets is a positive to me, even if they exposed themselves to more risk than they probably should have given their position. This is so much better than targeting someone like gudbranson, or making it a priority to sign a 35 year old goalie, and there is at least a somewhat decent chance that this deal works out well for them, which is completely ignored because people can't fathom the thought of watching a draft where their favourite team doesn't have a first! Round! Pick!

I think the biggest problem with this trade is that it is telling as to where they think the team is (and I don't think it's a correct take), and that it also puts them in a position where they pretty much have to land one or more UFAs, and very obviously so.

 

[Bubbles]

Damn it's really hard to be a Canucks fan these days. You try to stay positive with things like Podkolzin, and then you get hammered down the next day.

 

[Diamonddog01]

January 2020 - Canucks stay healthy and sitting nicely in a playoff position. Miller clicks with Pettersson/Horvat on pace for 65+ all of HFboards “Wow Benning is a genius!!!”

One can only hope right? Lol

Even if the stars align perfectly, and let’s say we finish 7th next year - it’s still a brutal trade imo

Trades and signings should be judged by both the thought process at the time as well as the result. Praying that everything goes perfectly so that the trade ends up being “not bad” is not a sound strategy.

 

[Isi]

The obvious question is if the team ends up with pick 13 or so next season, don't we have to heavily consider giving that up

 

[Melvin]

I think the biggest problem with this trade is that it is telling as to where they think the team is (and I don't think it's a correct take), and that it also puts them in a position where they pretty much have to land one or more UFAs, and very obviously so.

Absolutely, don't disagree with that at all.

I said earlier this week that I saw this as a 75 point team, and now it's, I don't know, a 79 point team? That makes it a poor deal, but I still think there are things to like about it, and if I'm wrong about that projection it could actually end up being the best deal this regime has made.

 

[TruGr1t]

 

[RobertKron]

Absolutely, don't disagree with that at all.

I said earlier this week that I saw this as a 75 point team, and now it's, I don't know, a 79 point team? That makes it a poor deal, but I still think there are things to like about it, and if I'm wrong about that projection it could actually end up being the best deal this regime has made.

This is kind of similar to a number of things this group have done, though, where there's a possibility that everything goes really well and it works out, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it was a good decision at the time.

 

[RealityCheck22]

It’s just hilarious watching Canucks fans on Twitter try and justify this move, reminds me of when I was 14 trying to justify some bad Gillis trades I didn’t like.

At first this was a deal I thought would push the fan base to anti-Benning but man have fans had 180’s.

I still think this was absolutely illogical to not negotiate and use your leverage.

I said at the time I wouldn’t have even done the 40th, when LeBrun tweeted out the Canucks were taking on the full hit essentially doing them a favour, I thought it was going to be around a 3rd+.

Reddit is far worse. It is amazing the % of people there think this is a great deal.... and never question it or it is a down vote spiral. They really give Canuck fans a bad rap .... or maybe it's russian bots?

 

[kanuck87]

I have nothing positive to say about Benning, who I think is the dumbest man in the sport, but I'm just saying there's more to it than saying that Tampa was backed into a corner and we should have been able to destroy them. That's a fantasy. Tampa isn't stupid, and were not that desperate. Again, they had the enviable position of having a guy like Miller who is basically expendable. I agree there's a point where you should walk away, and they probably should have, but I do think people are oversimplifying things a bit. If they walk away Tampa probably gets a similar deal from another team. They weren't in some terrible situation, they were actually in a position that everyone wishes their team was in, an embarrassment of riches.

I just love targeting a player like Miller, undervalued because he's buried on an elite team, and because he's signed to a good value contract that expires before he turns 30. The fact that the team is targeting the right assets is a positive to me, even if they exposed themselves to more risk than they probably should have given their position. This is so much better than targeting someone like gudbranson, or making it a priority to sign a 35 year old goalie, and there is at least a somewhat decent chance that this deal works out well for them, which is completely ignored because people can't fathom the thought of watching a draft where their favourite team doesn't have a first! Round! Pick!

Your last few posts has basically summarized my thoughts. Don't like the trade because we've exposed ourselves to more risk than necessary, but in all probability, it's not going to come back to bite us in the ass.

I under-estimated how good JT Miller has been the last few seasons. A couple of 55-60 point seasons and a 47 point season where he was getting 3rd line minutes. He's been a really good top-6 player. In the open market, Vancouver would have to give a contract close to the one Buffalo gave Jeff Skinner (8 years x 9 million) to get a guy like JT Miller to come here. Vancouver has never been an attractive free agent destination, even when they were a good team.

Yes, this trade has a chance to end up terribly, but that essentially applies to every trade where futures are traded for win-now pieces. Given the probability that this pick ends up in the top-5 ( IMO, anything in the 6-10 range is fair value for Miller), I don't think it's a bad trade to make, even if we don't end up making the playoffs next season.

 

[ayoshi]

A couple thoughts:

1) The Canucks are brutal (statistically irrefutable). Worst team in the league over the last 4 years. A Vancouver Canucks 1st round pick is probably viewed by other GMs as a golden ticket; hugely valuable asset. How the F was Benning not able to get something better than JT miller for a 1st and a 3rd??

2) When Benning first called about miller, what was the original ask from Tampa such that the trade negotiations ended in a 1st and a 3rd?? Tampa probably saw Benning's name on the caller ID and got SO EXCITED. They probably started by asking for the moon, even though they have cap issues, and instead of hanging up Benning was probably like "hmm, okay how about a 1st, a 3rd, and Mazanec"? LOL

 

[ProstheticConscience]

I’m completely okay with the Canucks having this approach, I think they’re past the point of hoarding picks and you move futures for prime aged players on good contracts.

I like J.T. Miller, I think he’s the best player out of the Bolts tweeter wingers. But the issue here is paying around market value, if not higher for this player. It’s clearly a buyers market right now with so many teams having cap problems. You have an abundance of cap space, use it as an asset. This doesn’t mean acquiring picks for bad contracts only, it’s bringing in good players on teams with cap problems and getting them at a fraction of the cost. Look at how Gillis acquired Christian Ehrhoff.

Jim Benning has tunnel vision and doesn’t understand the concept of negotiation and leverage. In a vacuum this isn’t catastrophic if you A) think this team is close to the playoffs or B) Vancouver doesn’t have leverage.

I just don’t see a management team I have any confidence in, I have Jimbo some credit last night, but he just isn’t the guy I have faith in to put this team together.

????

The Canucks have never been at the point of hoarding picks. This is a right now move for a team that doesn't have a right now. Again.

 

[BWJM]