Confirmed with Link: [VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21), 2019 3rd, Marek Mazanec for J.T. Miller

[PuckMunchkin]

I really really like this trade ! I know a lot of people don’t but I think Miller is a great addition . We really needed someone to play with Horvat and I believe Miller is a great pickup and if we miss the playoffs next year we still get to keep our 1st round pick and it moves too 2021 and I absolutely love that .

This team has drafted really really well the last few years and especially with our 1st round picks the last 3 years with Pettersson, Hughes and Podkolzin.

I don’t want us to have a loosing culture . Yes draft picks and drafting high is great but I want this team to contend for a playoff stop now . The last two years I wanted this team to draft well and they have . We might have to wait 2 years for Podkolzin but He is by far a top 5 talent and I would rather wait for him and get an incredible young talent who is a top 5 talent and a player who will be deadly with Pettersson and has the mean streak to him .

JT Miller gives this team a much needed top 6 forward and young forward who is only 26 and still has his best years of hockey ahead of him and has averaged 55 points a year except this last year but to Miller’s Credit he was on the 2nd , 3rd line a lot . Here he will be given PP time and will play on a scoring line with BO.

People will probably blast me but I love this trade

Wont blast you. Checked your posting history and you like and love most things.

 

[Fatass]

Wont blast you. Checked your posting history and you like and love most things.

I woke up early, and was hoping this latest terrible trade by JB was just a nightmare.

 

[Bougieman]

Ok, after sleeping on it....

This trade could work out in the Canucks favour. It's a gamble, and likely not a smart gamble, but it could work. It'll all depend on if J.T. Miller has a turnaround and has the best season of his career, and if the first round player that goes back to the Lightning doesn't amount to much -- which we won't know for the better part of 4 to 6 years from now, so lets chill.

But here's the thing... if we don't get another 1 or 2 quality NHL d-men before the season starts, it won't matter how many quality 2nd line forwards Benning adds to the roster. A team this thin on the blue line is not going ANYWHERE good. Period.

 

[Melvin]

You must be really bored or your mom refuses to let you out of the attic! Good god man or maybe you're a bean counter!

Literally took 5 minutes of effort that I wrote on my phone while on the skytrain, but ok.

 

[Fatass]

Ok, after sleeping on it....

This trade could work out in the Canucks favour. It's a gamble, and likely not a smart gamble, but it could work. It'll all depend on if J.T. Miller has a turnaround and has the best season of his career, and if the first round player that goes back to the Lightning doesn't amount to much -- which we won't know for the better part of 4 to 6 years from now, so lets chill.

But here's the thing... if we don't get another 1 or 2 quality NHL d-men before the season starts, it won't matter how many quality 2nd line forwards Benning adds to the roster. A team this thin on the blue line is not going ANYWHERE good. Period.

And to get that much needed D man, what might this GM do? We don’t have a first to give up anymore, so that means UFA or trading a player off our roster. Top D aren’t cheap. We either over pay in cash or over pay in trade.

 

[DarrenX]

This is a right now move for a team that doesn't have a right now. Again.

This is very well put. Though I guess it depends on what the goal is: if you just want to be a bubble team to please the casuals then that's our "right now", and you could argue that this move (plus maybe some others on D) puts us there.

For me it's win-win.... if the Canucks make the playoffs I'll be happy, and if they fail yet again and Benning is finally canned I'll be happy.

 

[F A N]

I think that overall fans overrate the value of draft picks in terms of actually using it to select a player. Every year we think all these draft eligible forwards would develop into first line star players. But in reality you would be happy if your team which drafted a Newhook or a Krebs end up with a JT Miller type player. Heck even a reasonable and good projection of Podkolzin would be a 2nd like type who puts up close to 25 goals and 55 points while being a solid 200 foot player. At one time, Miller was that too 10 talent prospect who was drafted 11th overall.

 

[Bougieman]

Exactly. The first round is certainly no sure thing. The Canucks might have just traded a Horvat or a Boeser for J.T. Miller -- but it's just as likely that they just traded a Nicklas Jensen or a Jordan Schroeder for J.T. Miller.

 

[m9]

I think that overall fans overrate the value of draft picks in terms of actually using it to select a player. Every year we think all these draft eligible forwards would develop into first line star players. But in reality you would be happy if your team which drafted a Newhook or a Krebs end up with a JT Miller type player. Heck even a reasonable and good projection of Podkolzin would be a 2nd like type who puts up close to 25 goals and 55 points while being a solid 200 foot player. At one time, Miller was that too 10 talent prospect who was drafted 11th overall.

Miller was drafted 15th.

You are also ignoring the potential value you get with first round picks which is multiple years on an ELC if things go correctly. So by trading for a player already through his early career you've completely capped the upside of the value of the puck since you have no chance of getting a good player on a near-minimum contract.

Then of course since we don't know how high the pick will be since it is unprotected past this year, the downside of the trade is pretty much limitless.

Just a completely reckless trade.

 

[Nomobo]

It's easy to dismiss away the many nuanced arguments here as being of the same "hysteria". This does away with thinking about what is actually being said.

Balance here is earned. You have to first present a balanced opinion for it be returned in a balanced manner. Comment on good moves and bad moves with an earnest intent. Let the board mood sort itself out. I find that people worry too much about it.

There are many good nuanced arguments presented here both for and against but it’s the piling on that results in this board becoming a hyperbolic echo chamber heavily tilted towards mass hysteria. Mob mentality doesn’t lead to balance.
Back to hockey. I have reservations about this trade and it’s very high risk factor but I’m willing to support it if it gives us a half decent chance to make the playoffs. I don’t want to sit on the sidelines five years in a row.
This is not a Benning endorsement.

 

[m9]

Miller was drafted 15th.

You are also ignoring the potential value you get with first round picks which is multiple years on an ELC if things go correctly. So by trading for a player already through his early career you've completely capped the upside of the value of the puck since you have no chance of getting a good player on a near-minimum contract.

Then of course since we don't know how high the pick will be since it is unprotected past this year, the downside of the trade is pretty much limitless.

Just a completely reckless trade.

Just to add to my own post - this really simplifies my issue with the trade.

You're cutting off the upside since you have no chance at getting an elite player OR getting a decent player on a cheap contract. You also have huge downside as the draft pick is a variable draft slot as opposed to say, #23 in this year's draft.

That's saying nothing about the actual value of the trade, which is laughably bad given the situation Tampa was in combined with there being similar players as free agents like Brett Connolly.

 

[Melvin]

Just to add to my own post - this really simplifies my issue with the trade.

You're cutting off the upside since you have no chance at getting an elite player OR getting a decent player on a cheap contract. You also have huge downside as the draft pick is a variable draft slot as opposed to say, #23 in this year's draft.

That's saying nothing about the actual value of the trade, which is laughably bad given the situation Tampa was in combined with there being similar players as free agents like Brett Connolly.

The upside is you beginning your competitive window with one of your top forwards carrying cost certainty at good value through his prime years. In a capped league, that's extremely important.

Connolly is a perennial 20 point player who had a fluke season that matched Miller's worst season in three years.

Like I get why people don't like the trade but people are taking it way too far.

If the canucks make the playoffs then ~20th overall pick for this contract is great value and a trade I make every time. If the team is competitive.

If course, it's the probability of the team being competitive that's the problem, but that probability isn't zero.

I've yet to see anyone actually post what they think the probability is, and where their breakeven point is for where they would be okay with this trade.

 

[Ita]

- but it's just as likely that they just traded a Nicklas Jensen or a Jordan Schroeder for J.T. Miller.

So you think we will get a late first rounder in 2020 or 2021?

/s

 

[Why]

I see chia has officially started on the job.. I feel your pain Canuck fans

 

[m9]

The upside is you beginning your competitive window with one of your top forwards carrying cost certainty at good value through his prime years. In a capped league, that's extremely important.

Connolly is a perennial 20 point player who had a fluke season that matched Miller's worst season in three years.

Like I get why people don't like the trade but people are taking it way too far.

If the canucks make the playoffs then ~20th overall pick for this contract is great value and a trade I make every time. If the team is competitive.

If course, it's the probability of the team being competitive that's the problem, but that probability isn't zero.

I've yet to see anyone actually post what they think the probability is, and where their breakeven point is for where they would be okay with this trade.

Probabilities are tough because of the variables involved. I liked your previous post in regards to the odds of them making the playoffs.

Using the pick slot as a benchmark is a good start. I feel comfortable saying that if it ends up a top-15 pick then it's a bad trade. Then inside that, it could go from bad to catastrophic.

But then there's the other part - JT Miller has to actually be good and that part is harder to quantify. And not just good - better than a player you could sign for a similar price for free or traded for at a lower price.

I just think you could have accomplished something similar without taking on so much risk. Once there is some more data in terms of trades and contracts in the next couple weeks we'll have a better picture.

 

[Horse McHindu]

The upside is you beginning your competitive window with one of your top forwards carrying cost certainty at good value through his prime years. In a capped league, that's extremely important.

Connolly is a perennial 20 point player who had a fluke season that matched Miller's worst season in three years.

Like I get why people don't like the trade but people are taking it way too far.

If the canucks make the playoffs then ~20th overall pick for this contract is great value and a trade I make every time. If the team is competitive.

If course, it's the probability of the team being competitive that's the problem, but that probability isn't zero.

I've yet to see anyone actually post what they think the probability is, and where their breakeven point is for where they would be okay with this trade.

Rajahwwf.com represent.

 

[drivier]

So I woke up this morning blissful in how the first four rounds went and then seething at the this trade.

My brain tells me to take a step back... Maybe I undervalue Miller. So, I go to look at numbers and cohorts.

So points per game... Let's see where he sits:

View media item 5643
Promise building. That's actually better than I thought. Ok... But I don't really know how many minutes he gets a game or how much he really plays on that TB powerplay last year. So.. was he being carried by those stars?

Let's start with the minutes... Maybe he's playing 25 minutes per game. Let's check his all situation points per 60 minutes (P/60):View media item 5645
Sweet baby Jesus... It isn't the minutes. In fact (getting excited), his productivity actually surpasses Boeser?! Maybe I was wrong... Maybe he was a diamond in the rough who was buried in that Bolts line-up!!! But my brain reminds me to check the situations he played in.

So, I go to his ESP/60 (even strength points per 60):

View media item 5639
And I cry a little inside... His points are inflated by ice time on the power play with Stamkos and Kucherov? Say it ain't so... The numbers must lie?! So, I race to his power play per 60 minutes... Trying to deny the logic that their has to be a correlative increase in PPP/60 if his ESP/60 is so low... And there it is:

View media item 5641
****!

I have done the opposite in trying to give myself comfort. The numbers show his points are largely a by-product of playing with Stamkos and Kucherov and that Lightning power play last year. Looking at the names around him, I ask myself... "Would you trade the value of a first (lottery protected for a year) at the deadline for the names around him based on even strength point production?" Nope. Not a first.

This is worse than I thought. We sold off the benefit of 3 years on the future pick ELC, the value of what could be a lottery pick, the value of our cap space... And we did so without more perfect information about whether the team is playoff competitive. And we did so when comparables are available in free agency?

Seriously. This deal is horrible. Benning got fleeced.

Source for media: QuantHockey.com

 

[Hit the post]

There are many good nuanced arguments presented here both for and against but it’s the piling on that results in this board becoming a hyperbolic echo chamber heavily tilted towards mass hysteria. Mob mentality doesn’t lead to balance.
Back to hockey. I have reservations about this trade and it’s very high risk factor but I’m willing to support it if it gives us a half decent chance to make the playoffs. I don’t want to sit on the sidelines five years in a row.
This is not a Benning endorsement.

I’d be more supportive of such a gamble if said player was a defensemen. Fills a bigger hole on the team. But I guess it’s a trope to say you can more easily stick plugs on wings (especially with the centers we have; heck even with Sutter as he tends to play the same no matter who he has as wingers) than on D. We’ve seen that with the vast assortment of third pairing D Benning has acquired over the five years (of varying quality).

Are their #4’s out there in free agency we could get free (not give up any assets)? Sure, but not without giving them awful contracts.

I just think another D that can play 20 minutes a game decently will have a greater impact than another 20 goal scoring winger. It means less minutes for Edler and Tanev (less likely to get injured as their workload is decreased). Gives another option to shelter Hughes.

No the world isn’t ending (franchise survived Jack Gordon and Mike Keenan). Only I ain’t young anymore and want to see this team win the Cup before I die.

 

[kanuck87]

Somebody convince me why I should like this deal. I have yet to hear an argument for it either than Miller is good, which I concede.

Why does this trade make sense for us at this point?

Miller is probably worth a pick in the 6-10 range (Look at the trades for Stepan, Hartman and Tatar). The odds that this pick lands in the top 5 isn't that great and while it's unfortunate that there is a possibility that this could happen, we can't just look at the downside of this trade. The fact is that in all likelihood, this pick will land outside of the top-10, which would be really good value for Miller.

As to why Miller makes sense right now, this team badly needed a relatively young, cost-controlled top-6 winger. This team had so many holes to fill that it just didn't have the cap space to get everything it needed in free agency. Getting Miller at 5.25 million for the next 4 years really is a great fit, even if it cost us a valuable draft pick.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Having slept on the deal for a bit, I hate it even more.
You swing for the fences for a number two defenseman or a top line forward like Kessel.
With all due respect to Miller he’s not that player. We just drafted EP, Hughes and Pod in the last three drafts. Would anyone be happy trading any of those players plus a third round pick for Miller?
That’s the risk we’re taking with a management group that has consistently over estimated how good this team is year after year.

 

[Ori]

They moved JT. Miller because they saw something, and Jeff Gordon and AV at the time ended with the same conclusion to move the player to Tampa. AV will now coach Flyers, but I am sceptical about the cost and the whole trade to be honest.

 

[Josepho]

And hire who?

f***ing hire me i'll do a better job for 25/hour

 

[drivier]

Miller is probably worth a pick in the 6-10 range (Look at the trades for Stepan, Hartman and Tatar).

Seeing that Stepan and Hartman are there brings me some comfort as they're worse options than Miller. Tatar however is far superior to Miller. At least nice to know two other GM's got beat up worse in losing their firsts.

 

[kanuck87]

Having slept on the deal for a bit, I hate it even more.
You swing for the fences for a number two defenseman or a top line forward like Kessel.
With all due respect to Miller he’s not that player. We just drafted EP, Hughes and Pod in the last three drafts. Would anyone be happy trading any of those players plus a third round pick for Miller?
That’s the risk we’re taking with a management group that has consistently over estimated how good this team is year after year.

It could be a Pettersson or Hughes, but it could also be a Virtanen or Juolevi.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

It could be a Pettersson or Hughes, but it could also be a Virtanen or Juolevi.

I just listed the guys we took the last three years. Bennings picks have been doing well.
It could also be the first or second overall pick if things go poorly and we win or come second in the draft lottery two years from now. Just like when the Leafs traded for
Kessel.
There is no way I would trade for Miller if it ends up being a top 10 pick.