Salary Cap: Value of nylanders next contract

[ToneDog]

If he pulled that shit as an RFA with zero leverage, what do you think he's gonna do now that he's proven himself?
He and his family know the business, they're basically mercenaries lol.

Then you gotta sell high and move on, especially if we exit in round #1.

 

[Gilmour1996]

If a player is 1-dimensional, doesn't kill penalties, isn't a defensive juggernaut or has a propensity to make glaring errors at the worst possible times then salary should be reduced accordingly. This isn't just about getting points.

 

[ToneDog]

Important to remember that Nylander’s contract coincides with Matthews a year before Marner’s.

The difference between Marner and Nylander is negligible, so getting Nylander right should set Marner’s bar.

It will be telling where Nylander lands (co tract- wise) and hopefully a place that sets a Boston/Tampa tone contractually.

That’s the right play isn’t it? It’s obvious isn’t it? Isn’t it?

Many will disagree. Marner has clearly been the better of the two, although Nylander has closed the gap and no way Marner accepts a deal similar to any Nylander deal IMO. If Willie demands Marner money, you have to trade him this summer.

 

[Clyde Brewer]

If a player is 1-dimensional, doesn't kill penalties, isn't a defensive juggernaut or has a propensity to make glaring errors at the worst possible times then salary should be reduced accordingly. This isn't just about getting points.

Morgan Reilly?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Here's one out of a bunch that should have been super easy for you to find: Ferris: Marner received two offer sheets - TSN.ca


It's one thing if it's just Ferris saying stuff during a negotiation, but Marner literally confirmed it, and they discuss how the team doing it talked about it with Dubas.

Dekes, you're being *very* careful with your words here and intentionally misleading.

Nobody denies that Marner got offer sheets. We all agree that he did. But none of us believe (or have seen any evidence) that the offer sheets were above the 2 first-round pick compensation level. And that was 10.1 million at the time.

Yet you're trying to say that Marner received an offer sheet of 13x7 but turned it down because he wanted 13x5. THAT'S what we want evidence for. But the sources you give never mention money.

Also, given his increase in point production, if he could get 13x7 AS WELL AS the team losing 4 1st round picks, isn't his value HIGHER now as he gets more points and there would be no 4 1st round pick compensation?

And regarding Nylander, who would you say are his closest ufa comparables (based on if he has similar production next season)?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dekes, you're being *very* careful with your words here and intentionally misleading.
Nobody denies that Marner got offer sheets. We all agree that he did. But none of us believe (or have seen any evidence) that the offer sheets were above the 2 first-round pick compensation level. And that was 10.1 million at the time.
Yet you're trying to say that Marner received an offer sheet of 13x7 but turned it down because he wanted 13x5. THAT'S what we want evidence for. But the sources you give never mention money.

Nothing I said was "intentionally misleading" or misleading at all.
People are literally trying to deny that Marner received offer sheets. That's literally what the discussion is about. Not about money or term or anything like that. Literally just a couple people arguing against this basic fact that we all know and Marner confirmed. Yes, I know it's unbelievable, but here we are. I'm glad you can at least acknowledge that he received offer sheets.

I haven't tried to argue anything about money or term, or said any of the things you're claiming, so I don't really know what you're talking about.
In fact, I literally acknowledged that we don't have confirmed money or term amounts. Only reports and common sense conclusions drawn from them.
Also, the compensation point changed at 10.6m, not 10.1m - which means even though there's every reason to believe any offer sheets would have been in the four 1st range, an offer sheet threat did exist at the two 1st range that wouldn't have been successful but would have been worse for us than the resulting contract.

Also, given his increase in point production, if he could get 13x7 AS WELL AS the team losing 4 1st round picks, isn't his value HIGHER now as he gets more points and there would be no 4 1st round pick compensation?

Just because a team was willing to offer a lot to acquire one of the best trending players in the cap era through 7+ (and probably more) of the best years of their careers, using a mechanism where paying above market is the only way of doing so, that doesn't suddenly inflate his valuation on his next contract to the ridiculous numbers you've been claiming. Marner will get a contract consistent with the history of UFA contracts, just like he got a contract consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

And regarding Nylander, who would you say are his closest ufa comparables (based on if he has similar production next season)?

We can discuss that when we actually know his final results. We still have half a season left before he can even think about signing.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Nothing I said was "intentionally misleading" or misleading at all.
People are literally trying to deny that Marner received offer sheets. That's literally what the discussion is about. Not about money or term or anything like that. Literally just a couple people arguing against this basic fact that we all know and Marner confirmed. Yes, I know it's unbelievable, but here we are. I'm glad you can at least acknowledge that he received offer sheets.

I haven't tried to argue anything about money or term, or said any of the things you're claiming, so I don't really know what you're talking about.
In fact, I literally acknowledged that we don't have confirmed money or term amounts. Only reports and common sense conclusions drawn from them.
Also, the compensation point changed at 10.6m, not 10.1m - which means even though there's every reason to believe any offer sheets would have been in the four 1st range, an offer sheet threat did exist at the two 1st range that wouldn't have been successful but would have been worse for us than the resulting contract.

Just because a team was willing to offer a lot to acquire one of the best trending players in the cap era through 7+ (and probably more) of the best years of their careers, using a mechanism where paying above market is the only way of doing so, that doesn't suddenly inflate his valuation on his next contract to the ridiculous numbers you've been claiming. Marner will get a contract consistent with the history of UFA contracts, just like he got a contract consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

We can discuss that when we actually know his final results. We still have half a season left before he can even think about signing.

If Marner signed a 10.6 offersheet, and the leafs matched, how is that "worse" for the leafs? He ended up signing 10.9

And if the best Aho could get was 8.5, there's no chance in hell someone would have offered Marner 13 mil. And yes, Marner was slightly better than aho. But not 8.5 vs 13 better.

And you said in the past that Marner was offered 13x7 and "Marner confirmed it". Are you now at least acknowledging that there is no evidence Columbus offered him 13x7?

And my question regarding Nylander is if he continues this production this year and next year, what would his comparables be?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Morgan Reilly?

I was thinking McDavid!

 

[ITM]

Couldn't Matthews sign before both Nylander and Marner?

He could but even with depressed stats, he’s an outlier.

 

[ITM]

Many will disagree. Marner has clearly been the better of the two, although Nylander has closed the gap and no way Marner accepts a deal similar to any Nylander deal IMO. If Willie demands Marner money, you have to trade him this summer.

What I (clumsily) meant by negligible was the notion of a three to four million disparity between the two is absurd.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Marner signed a 10.6 offersheet, and the leafs matched, how is that "worse" for the leafs? He ended up signing 10.9

A 10.6m x 5 year offer sheet is worse for us than a 10.9m x 6 year contract.

And if the best Aho could get was 8.5, there's no chance in hell someone would have offered Marner 13 mil. And yes, Marner was slightly better than aho. But not 8.5 vs 13 better.

Marner was quite a bit better than Aho, but you're right that he wasn't 13m vs. 8.5m better.

The strategy for the Aho offer sheet seemed to be based more around desperate hope that the contract's structure would cause issues for a team with cash flow issues, instead of paying above market. A pretty bad idea, which is why it instantly failed. Aho probably could have gotten more than 8.5m on an offer sheet, but he seemed to just want to get the contract over with and get the term he wanted. He basically just used Montreal to bypass normal negotiations.

Paying 13m to Marner would have been the normal offer sheet strategy of paying above market and squeezing the team's cap. Sometimes teams are willing to overpay to get something really good that they really want. Teams have done it for way worse things than one of the best trending players in the cap era through many of their best years.

Though the reports were 12.5m I'm pretty sure. Don't know where 13m came from.
There's really no way to conclude that it would be less than the four first range. It would be an illogical offer sheet for the situation.

And you said in the past that Marner was offered 13x7 and "Marner confirmed it". Are you now at least acknowledging that there is no evidence Columbus offered him 13x7?

I never said that. Please don't misrepresent what people say.
I said Marner confirmed that he received offer sheets.
I said there were reports of Columbus being one of the offer sheeting teams, and there were reports of 12.5m x 7 being one of the offers.

 

[Racer88]

Discussed not made. No offer would be made unless the team knows the player would sign, it's just a waste of time.
They would likely explore a trade first as well instead of losing the picks.

thats what I think as well but someone thinks they were actually made………

Again, that is factually incorrect. Marner received two offer sheets.

 

[Racer88]

If Marner did actually receive 2 offer sheets and that’s a big”if” they must have been real crap offers or he would have put the screws to Dubas by using them as leverage.
If as Ferris says, that Mitch told him he would not sign them because he wanted to remain a leaf he sure didn’t cut them any slack on the bottom line of his current contract.
sounds more likely that Ferris was trying to take the heat of Marner who has been one of the polarizing Leafs in a long time and Marners vague confirmation of that is him just not throwing Ferris under the truck.

 

[Antropovsky]

Dekes, you're being *very* careful with your words here and intentionally misleading.

Nobody denies that Marner got offer sheets. We all agree that he did. But none of us believe (or have seen any evidence) that the offer sheets were above the 2 first-round pick compensation level. And that was 10.1 million at the time.

Yet you're trying to say that Marner received an offer sheet of 13x7 but turned it down because he wanted 13x5. THAT'S what we want evidence for. But the sources you give never mention money.

Also, given his increase in point production, if he could get 13x7 AS WELL AS the team losing 4 1st round picks, isn't his value HIGHER now as he gets more points and there would be no 4 1st round pick compensation?

And regarding Nylander, who would you say are his closest ufa comparables (based on if he has similar production next season)?

Who cares if he was offered a contract? Why does that make him anymore special than other Restricted free agents? Aho got one, so did Montreal Kotkiemi or whatever Penner got one, Backes and Kesler...and so forth. All that really matters is what the contracts amounted to. The fact that Marner and Ferris refused to answer whether the offered contracts were for more or less than the Leafs contract should tell you that the offered contracts were 100% less than the Leafs. Marner took a lot of heat for his hold out, he would 110% percent been telling everyone he took less to stay, it would have helped his image immensely...and no one would've have cared if he did tell.

Two offer sheets isn't that impressive anyways.... If Matthews made it to RFA he would have had a list, if Dahlin makes it, he'd have a list too. Especially considering marner and ferris pretty much put up a blinking sign saying "please offer sheet me". Ferris was I'm sure calling every GM trying to get one to bite on being interested so he could leak that there were interested team's.

 

[Niagara Bill]

His value for contract is not important. We cannot afford him. So...he needs to be traded immediately after we win Cup this year.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

A 10.6m x 5 year offer sheet is worse for us than a 10.9m x 6 year contract.

Marner was quite a bit better than Aho, but you're right that he wasn't 13m vs. 8.5m better.

The strategy for the Aho offer sheet seemed to be based more around desperate hope that the contract's structure would cause issues for a team with cash flow issues, instead of paying above market. A pretty bad idea, which is why it instantly failed. Aho probably could have gotten more than 8.5m on an offer sheet, but he seemed to just want to get the contract over with and get the term he wanted. He basically just used Montreal to bypass normal negotiations.

Paying 13m to Marner would have been the normal offer sheet strategy of paying above market and squeezing the team's cap. Sometimes teams are willing to overpay to get something really good that they really want. Teams have done it for way worse things than one of the best trending players in the cap era through many of their best years.

Though the reports were 12.5m I'm pretty sure. Don't know where 13m came from.
There's really no way to conclude that it would be less than the four first range. It would be an illogical offer sheet for the situation.

I never said that. Please don't misrepresent what people say.
I said Marner confirmed that he received offer sheets.
I said there were reports of Columbus being one of the offer sheeting teams, and there were reports of 12.5m x 7 being one of the offers.

A 90 point Marner is worth 13x7 AND four first round picks. A 100-120 point Marner in his prime the next 7 years with ZERO pick compensation is worth... how much Dekes? I can't wait to see what number you come up with.

This is one of the numerous threads you cited 13x7, btw...

Interesting Marner note

Yeah this was reported after Marner signed and the Dubas propaganda outlets in Toronto went into overdrive to use it to rationalize the unprecedented dramatic overpayment. Actual numbers are never discussed though. It was almost assuredly the two first round pick compensation, which would be...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Byron Bitz]

It's important to clear up your misrepresentations of past discussions.
There isn't an exact replica of Marner in the cap era, but as I've shown countless times, his contract falls appropriately in between the Malkin/Matthews tier and the Rantanen/Kane tier. He was also the best player among those who do fall in his contract range (Heatley, Vanek, Eichel, etc.), and his pre-signing period ranks better relative to all players that signed a post-ELC contract in the cap era than where his contract ranks.

That's really just people trying to fear-monger.

Marner didn’t deserve a dime over Rantanen and Kane

 

[Jojalu]

Should it not be 80% of what Pastrnak gets?

I think that's more than fair.

 

[Dekes For Days]

A 90 point Marner is worth 13x7 AND four first round picks. A 100-120 point Marner in his prime the next 7 years with ZERO pick compensation is worth... how much Dekes?

No. Many of the best years of one of the best trending players in the cap era was reportedly worth paying 12.5-13.0m for for one team, while using a mechanism where paying above market value is necessary. That does not equate to his market value then, and it doesn't mean that he's going to be paid any of the ridiculous amounts you've claimed now, just because he continued on the projected path. I don't know why you keep bringing up the pick compensation when that really has nothing to do with his contract.

I don't know what Marner's exact cap hit will be, because again, he is 1.5 years away from even being eligible to sign, and 2.5 years from it starting, so there's a lot of missing information about Marner and a lot of missing information about the cap. But there's no reason to think that he will get anything other than a contract consistent with the history of UFA contracts.

This is one of the numerous threads you cited 13x7, btw...

For the record, it says ~13m, which means in the range of 13m, because I couldn't remember specifics at the time and it's the number that you were using too, but fair enough.
Though thank you for linking that, as many of your arguments are broken down in there, and it shows that I was accurate about what I had said and that your claims about me were false.

Marner didn’t deserve a dime over Rantanen and Kane

He undeniably deserved a decent amount more than both.

 

[Byron Bitz]

No. Many of the best years of one of the best trending players in the cap era was reportedly worth paying 12.5-13.0m for for one team, while using a mechanism where paying above market value is necessary. That does not equate to his market value then, and it doesn't mean that he's going to be paid any of the ridiculous amounts you've claimed now, just because he continued on the projected path. I don't know why you keep bringing up the pick compensation when that really has nothing to do with his contract.

I don't know what Marner's exact cap hit will be, because again, he is 1.5 years away from even being eligible to sign, and 2.5 years from it starting, so there's a lot of missing information about Marner and a lot of missing information about the cap. But there's no reason to think that he will get anything other than a contract consistent with the history of UFA contracts.

For the record, it says ~13m, which means in the range of 13m, because I couldn't remember specifics at the time and it's the number that you were using too, but fair enough.
Though thank you for linking that, as many of your arguments are broken down in there, and it shows that I was accurate about what I had said and that your claims about me were false.

He undeniably deserved a decent amount more than both.

Kane was coming off a season where he had 88 points and a monster playoff performance with 28 points in 22 games leading the Hawks to a cup. Marner was coming off a 94 point season and a bad playoff performance where we went out in the first round. And you think Marner deserves a decent amount more than Kane?

 

[ToneDog]

Marner didn’t deserve a dime over Rantanen and Kane

He's earning $1.5m more than two time SC champ Kutcherov and has put up 100 points, never. Go figure.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think what makes so many people angry about the Marner contract is that teams usually get their star players signed to great value contracts off their ELC and we were all really counting on Dubas to do that for us. And we have to compete in a very difficult division against teams that got their stars signed to great contracts.

 

[ToneDog]

I think what makes so many people angry about the Marner contract is that teams usually get their star players signed to great value contracts off their ELC and we were all really counting on Dubas to do that for us. And we have to compete in a very difficult division against teams that got their stars signed to great contracts.

The best Buffalo Sabre, Tage Thompson's 7.1x8m contract kicks in next year. Buffalo, a team that has to overpay to keep their stars. In the mecca of hockey we have to overpay and give them the bulk of the money up front. If the Sabres ever get it right, they will lap us in a few years IMO.

 

[Gabriel426]

Think Willie will sign between 8.5-9.5mil range if he continues to play at this pace.
If Soup can get the Nucks to give a 4.5mil contract, I really don’t see how Willie can’t get 8.5mil from any teams.

 

[ToneDog]

Think Willie will sign between 8.5-9.5mil range if he continues to play at this pace.
If Soup can get the Nucks to give a 4.5mil contract, I really don’t see how Willie can’t get 8.5mil from any teams.

He is on an 87 point pace and as you say, if he continues on this pace, 8.5x8 would be a good deal for the Leafs. Leafs can offer an 8th year so to get 68m, he'll have to find a team that has cap space and is willing to pay him 9.7x7.