Talk of the Raptors courting Kevin Durant is heating up. What would it take to land the NBA mega star – and is it even worth it for Toronto?
theathletic.com
Not only do the Raptors not have the repeated failure that they had back in 2018, but they don’t have the Lakers’ history as a destination for top players nor the Bucks’ urgency from 2020. What they have is one of the best track records in the draft.
• Norman Powell was picked 46th in 2015, developed into a starting-quality player, and moved to Portland at the height of his trade value for the younger Trent. (Powell was selected between Marcus Thornton and Arturis Gudaitis.)
• Siakam, a two-time All-NBA member, was picked 27th in 2016. (Siakam was selected between Furkan Korkmaz and Skal Labrissière.) VanVleet, an All-Star and 2019 Finals MVP vote-getter, was undrafted that same year, and was signed by the Raptors.
• Anunoby was picked 23rd in 2017. (Anunoby was selected between Jarrett Allen — good pick! — and Tyler Lydon.)
• Barnes was picked fourth in a draft touted for having a clear top four that did not include him. After winning rookie of the year, he is as reasonable of a bet as Cade Cunningham or Evan Mobley to be the best player of what should wind up being remembered as a loaded draft class.
Yet, the Raptors have had some misses deeper in the draft. Since picking Anunoby, they have taken Dewan Hernandez (59th in 2019), Malachi Flynn (29th in 2020), Jalen Harris (59th in 2020), Barnes, Dalano Banton (46th in 2021), David Johnson (47th in 2021) and Christian Koloko (33rd in 2022). Acknowledging that Koloko’s future is unwritten, Barnes is the only home run there. He should be — the other picks, by definition, are hard ones to nail. However, the Raptors’ recent history should underscore that they’re merely good at this drafting-and-developing business, not unimpeachable. (That several of the club’s most notable development-focused coaches, from Jama Mahlalela to Brittni Donaldson to Patrick Mutombo, have left the Raptors in recent years is worth acknowledging, too.) Those higher-leverage picks are still hugely important, and even more so to the Raptors in particular.
First-round draft picks went from being massively coveted in the middle and back half of the 2010’s to being thrown into trades for superstars and even regular, top-40 players in the past few seasons. Their true value probably lies somewhere between the two poles. But under this Raptors front office, they will always carry a little more weight.
Ultimately, I would rather do a trade centred on Siakam than Barnes, partly because Barnes could extend the Raptors’ future past Durant’s hypothetical time in Toronto in a way Siakam could not, and also because Barnes’ rookie contract is so low it essentially necessitates throwing in both Anunoby and Trent with him to make the math work. Perhaps it is a touch cute to think so long-term when a player of Durant’s ability is available.
Perhaps it is that ability to not come at it with the same urgency as other teams because of the plausibility of a longer title window in the future that ultimately keeps the Raptors from pulling off a second trade for a transformational player in four years.
Not only have the Raptors won a title recently, but their future in both the medium and long terms are uncertain enough that they could very well conclude Durant, and the cost to acquire him, are not worth the risk.
Do the Raptors want to maximize and guarantee some championship equity now, or do they want to play the long game and bank on incremental growth not only opening a window, but keeping it open for longer? Pretending that decision is easy is pure fallacy.