The Columbus Dispatch: Umberger wants out (Dispatch link post #276)

[major major]

Here are some stats from the 4 defenseman who have played the most games for the CBJ over the past three seasons:

Wiz.....153 GP......-14.......92 points
JJ........147 GP.......-7........66 points
Tyutin....183GP......-6......74 points
Nikitin.......158GP.......+6.......56 points

+/- a bit worse over the term, but not by much.

Points per game over span:
Wiz .60 (49 per 82)
JJ .45 (37 per 82)
Tyutin .40 (33 per 82)
Nikitin .35 (29 per 82)

Points generated by Wiz is significantly higher than others.

With Wiz, there appears to be a lot more peaks and valleys in performance than others appear to when measuring visually. When he's good, he's very good. When he's bad, he's very bad. His turnovers are often spectacularly bad.

While it's perfectly natural to cite the most recent performances of a player, the playoff series vs. the Penguins, I think, should be considered an aberration for Wiz.

This I don't agree with. Wiz has had at least a few stretches of play here that were just as bad as the recent series. To be fair, he wasn't 100% many of those times, but its not uncommon for him.

Note: I'm not in the buyout Wiz camp, I'm in the give Wiz specialist minutes camp.

 

[SuperGenius]

This I don't agree with. Wiz has had at least a few stretches of play here that were just as bad as the recent series. To be fair, he wasn't 100% many of those times, but its not uncommon for him.

Note: I'm not in the buyout Wiz camp, I'm in the give Wiz specialist minutes camp.

I think a lot of this could be simplified if he just doesn't play hurt, or at least plays in protected situations when not 80% or better. Some guys can do it, some can't. No shame in trying to put the player in a better situation to succeed.

 

[Viqsi]

I think everyone's opinion of Wiz's playoff performance, which was obviously horrid, is rubbing off on their opinion of him as a whole. Personally, I thought Wiz had a great regular season. Certainly better than his other two years here.

The guy had an unquestionably fantastic regular season and (unless you're a fancystats fetishist) an unquestionably g-dawful playoffs. These things happen. What we really need to do is have the coaching staff learn to tell when Wiz is trying to play injured and tell him "son, your heart's in the right place but you're no good to us like this, sit down and heal up."

 

[blahblah]

The guy had an unquestionably fantastic regular season and (unless you're a fancystats fetishist) an unquestionably g-dawful playoffs. These things happen. What we really need to do is have the coaching staff learn to tell when Wiz is trying to play injured and tell him "son, your heart's in the right place but you're no good to us like this, sit down and heal up."

Trying not to talk Wiz here, but this is the issue I have with Richards - he's didn't manage Wiz well in the playoffs. The more mistakes Wiz made the more ice-time he seemed to get - especially in game six. Richards let Wiz beat us in game six.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Trying not to talk Wiz here, but this is the issue I have with Richards - he's didn't manage Wiz well in the playoffs. The more mistakes Wiz made the more ice-time he seemed to get - especially in game six. Richards let Wiz beat us in game six.

Did you even check stats sheets for game 6? Obviously not.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20132014/ES030136.HTM

Schultz only played 8:55 in game 6.

The others (Ev and Total ice time):

JJ 18:48/30:47
Savard 16:52/20:47
Murray 17:05/19:30
Wiz 15:46/18:21
Tyutin 13:19/17:31

So, among the 5 defensemen who were available the entire game, Wiz played the 4th most minutes both EV and toal. He was on for 2 goals against-the second of which was his bonehead misplay at the Penguins blue line at the beginning of period 2. No coach can predict that an NHL player will make that kind of mistake.

Was Richards supposed to not play his best offensive defensemen after falling behind 2-0? Was he supposed to cement him to the bench for the remainder of the game after his blueline gaffe which made it 3-0? Was he supposed to play JJ 35 minutes or the others 25 minutes each?

Get a clue.

 

[thebus2288*]

Here are some stats from the 4 defenseman who have played the most games for the CBJ over the past three seasons:

Wiz.....153 GP......-14.......92 points
JJ........147 GP.......-7........66 points
Tyutin....183GP......-6......74 points
Nikitin.......158GP.......+6.......56 points

+/- a bit worse over the term, but not by much.

Points per game over span:
Wiz .60 (49 per 82)
JJ .45 (37 per 82)
Tyutin .40 (33 per 82)
Nikitin .35 (29 per 82)

Points generated by Wiz is significantly higher than others.


While it's perfectly natural to cite the most recent performances of a player, the playoff series vs. the Penguins, I think, should be considered an aberration for Wiz.

Another piece of info: Wiz may have been the best points generated per 60 minutes 5 vs 4 in the league this past season among defensemen playing over 50 games who had significant PP time. While he's not #1 on the list (he's #9), the 8 in front of him probably didn't receive a significant amount of PP time:

While the +/- stat isn't that black and white, when looking at it like this it definitely tells you something. You say his +/- is a bit/not much worse. His -14 is double of 2nd worst JJ's -7. When you factor in the +'s he gets for the extra ES points he's out there on, it makes it look even worse. Then you say the points generated by him are significantly higher without mentioning that the amount of PP time he gets is WAY more than everybody besides JJ. All this talk about how bad he was in the PO's compared to regular season must mean I was watching a different guy. He was just as bad ALL YEAR. He just didn't get 3 secondary PP assists in 6 games so people couldn't act like his offense was making up for anything.

Maybe the most interesting and important part that your leaving out of all of this is Ryan Murray and David Savard. **** you see who's above Wiz (#8) on that list, whatever its supposed to mean. Bottom line is we have multiple guys that can fill Wiz's PP role just as good while being better defensively AND save us money. Jack Johnson can easily be our 50pt d-man if given the same opportunities as Wiz.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

There are many factors to consider here:

Is he currently worth 4.6 million--NO

Is he as good as he once was- NO

Is he getting older - Yes

Is he slowing down- Yes

Is he very good at puck possession - NO

Is he a fan favorite -Yes

Can we do better with someone else - Maybe (I'd say probably but will keep this neutral)

Does the possibility exist that we will buy him out next year or the following- Maybe but if it is even a slight possibility I think you have to do it now.

Can he be traded? - I doubt it-at least not without taking back salary and for what we would get in return I don't see it

Can the saved money and improved cash flow be put to better use? I think so.

Did he score 18 goals - Yes

Is he a veteran leader- In our minds yes but for how long if he doesn't produce more?

Probably some I missed but to me the reasons for outweigh the reasons not to.

Reading this thread, you have asserted multiple times that buying Umberger out "saves" money.

Buying any player out means you PAY him not to play. The team doesn't save money unless they don't actually fill the roster spot. I listen to and watch a lot of GM interviews across Canada in my travels. Almost universally they say owners hate to pay a player to sit. Even Holmgren has said that. We as fans tend to look at cap hit or even the so-called "savings" from a buyout because the actual payout is less than having the player play out his contract. Do you really believe a decent 20 goal scorer is available for no assets besides money? Can they get this guy for $1.5 million or less per year for 3 years? If not, it means there is NO savings, there is a loss.Additionally, what is his brand value in Columbus? Does he draw paying customers? Will revenue be lost if Umberger is bought out?


Another piece of the puzzle is how the front office perceives Umberger. I honestly do not know; I doubt anyone on this board does know this. So many of us look solely at statistics to judge worth and disregard team dynamics. If JD and JK view him as a positive influence, you may see him in a CBJ sweater for 3 additional years, maybe longer.

 

[EspenK]

Okay one more time on the save money thing. The way I see it we need a top 6 forward. A Vanek. Iginla, Stastny, etc and yes I realize we will have to spend to get that person. We can do that with or without Umberger. If we do it without him we pay out 4.5 million less over the next 6 years. To me that saves money to offset the cost of the top guy. Even considering we fill his space with a 1.5 million guy for the next 3 years its a break even over 6 years. And for what I think would b a better team.

I mean, don't you people watch other teams in the playoffs? Do you realistically see Umberger playing on any of them? I sure as heck don't. And hopefully will not have to watch him on the Jackets next year.

And for all the GM's & owners who hate buyouts, there sure were a bunch of them taking advantage of them last year and I suspect more will do so this year.


Oh, and the 11 fans Umbie brings to the arena (you have to be kidding right?) will be more than offset by the 1000's more who show up to see a better team.

And if Umbie was a decent 20 goal scorer, I wouldn't be as big a proponent of buying him out. I'm with Cyclone that his 8 pp goals were a fluke and his playoff gear is still stuck in 2008. He hasn't been good for the past three seasons.

 

[Viqsi]

I mean, don't you people watch other teams in the playoffs? Do you realistically see Umberger playing on any of them? I sure as heck don't.

On every single one of them with the possible exception of Boston. We're not the only ones with an overpaid winger on the roster.

 

[Xoggz22]

What you save is a roster spot, not money. It isn't that difficult. You buy someone out, you pay them. You pay them less under the buyout guidelines but RJ would still cost the team money for no return. You pay someone to replace them. So for whomever replaces RJ in a buyout scenario, add $1.5MM for 6 years. A $1.5MM replacement quickly becomes a $3MM replacement. Fans will forget the real dollars quickly because it won't show up on the cap figure and neither would RJ but ownership still sees it. That's like playing the first home playoff game fr free. Need to do that for 6 years.

For me, buying him out is not the path I take. Trading him to open a roster spot would be the route I would take if it meant making the team better. Just my view and I know many don't agree with it. That's ok.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Interesting point..

does Umberger garner a lot of interest for a trade? The Rangers took Dorsett.. any chance that they want Umberger?

All kidding aside.. I will support the Jackets, whomever is in the lineup

 

[Cyclones Rock]

While the +/- stat isn't that black and white, when looking at it like this it definitely tells you something. You say his +/- is a bit/not much worse. His -14 is double of 2nd worst JJ's -7. When you factor in the +'s he gets for the extra ES points he's out there on, it makes it look even worse. Then you say the points generated by him are significantly higher without mentioning that the amount of PP time he gets is WAY more than everybody besides JJ. All this talk about how bad he was in the PO's compared to regular season must mean I was watching a different guy. He was just as bad ALL YEAR. He just didn't get 3 secondary PP assists in 6 games so people couldn't act like his offense was making up for anything.

Maybe the most interesting and important part that your leaving out of all of this is Ryan Murray and David Savard. **** you see who's above Wiz (#8) on that list, whatever its supposed to mean. Bottom line is we have multiple guys that can fill Wiz's PP role just as good while being better defensively AND save us money. Jack Johnson can easily be our 50pt d-man if given the same opportunities as Wiz.

-14 vs. -7 and -6 over 150 games isn't much. I have no idea what "extra ES points" means.


Savard got very little PP play time. He had 4 PP points while averaging 0:35 PP time per game. Wiz had 28 PP points while averaging 3:39 per game. Savard's aggregate PP time is insignificant. Wiz is an exceptional PP producer. JJ cannot come close to his level of production on the PP. Johnson produced points on the power play at 62% the rate of Wiz (jj=3.53 pts/60 min 5vs4....Wiz=5.71pts/60 min 5vs4).

I included the 4 dman who had logged the most GP over the last 3 seasons in my analysis. They're the most relevant when making an overall evaluation of Wiz' play.

Wiz may not be all one would like, but he's a very valuable PP player. He's certainly a piece of the puzzle who could be part of a trade package, but he's in no way, shape or form a candidate for buyout. It's not a even a remote possibility.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

On every single one of them with the possible exception of Boston. We're not the only ones with an overpaid winger on the roster.

OK. Who does RJU replace on Montreal's roster? Chicago's roster? LA's roster?

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Okay one more time on the save money thing. The way I see it we need a top 6 forward. A Vanek. Iginla, Stastny, etc and yes I realize we will have to spend to get that person. We can do that with or without Umberger. If we do it without him we pay out 4.5 million less over the next 6 years. To me that saves money to offset the cost of the top guy. Even considering we fill his space with a 1.5 million guy for the next 3 years its a break even over 6 years. And for what I think would b a better team.

I mean, don't you people watch other teams in the playoffs? Do you realistically see Umberger playing on any of them? I sure as heck don't. And hopefully will not have to watch him on the Jackets next year.

And for all the GM's & owners who hate buyouts, there sure were a bunch of them taking advantage of them last year and I suspect more will do so this year.


Oh, and the 11 fans Umbie brings to the arena (you have to be kidding right?) will be more than offset by the 1000's more who show up to see a better team.

And if Umbie was a decent 20 goal scorer, I wouldn't be as big a proponent of buying him out. I'm with Cyclone that his 8 pp goals were a fluke and his playoff gear is still stuck in 2008. He hasn't been good for the past three seasons.

I personally don't care whether they keep Umberger or not. His salary is not linked to your dream signing of Vanek, Iginla or Stastny. I will happily make you a bet of any kind: Neither Vanek nor Iginla sign with Columbus this offseason. Name the stakes. Hey for fun lets add Stastny to the bet too!

The Blue Jackets do not save money by buying anyone out. They increase their costs.

I watch pretty much every playoff game. I can't see many teams Umberger wouldn't play on. Do YOU watch the games?

Frankly neither of us know how many fans Umberger draws, and to state otherwise is totally disingenuous.

As far as teams taking advantage of compliance buy outs, please list the buy outs by low revenue non-Canadian teams. Let's see there's Minnesota and Tom Gilbert, there's Tampa and Vinny Lecavalier, Nashville and Hal Gill and.....

There's a reason for this. Columbus total revenues in 2013 are estimated at $69 million. Break even for an NHL team is ~ $35 million above players salaries. This piddling annual 1.5 million your posts indicate you think is meaningless has a real impact on the bottom line. As an example, an extra 1.5 million in 2013 would have deepened the teams losses by 30% from $5 million to 6.5 million.

I personally would love to see the Jackets go out and sign the very best available players and dump everyone who I think is overpaid. I also understand how unlikely it is that scenario actually occurs.

 

[Viqsi]

OK. Who does RJU replace on Montreal's roster? Chicago's roster? LA's roster?

Rene Bourque, possibly Andrew Shaw (I'd forgotten that Bickell is seen as a playoff superhero, was originally thinking him), Dwight King or Trevor Lewis (they've got better contracts, tho, as they're younger) or potentially even Dustin Brown.

 

[DarkandStormy]

So, among the 5 defensemen who were available the entire game, Wiz played the 4th most minutes both EV and toal. He was on for 2 goals against-the second of which was his bonehead misplay at the Penguins blue line at the beginning of period 2. No coach can predict that an NHL player will make that kind of mistake.

Actually...yes. If it's Wiz, because in the previous three games (or very nearly every game of the series) he did the exact. same. thing. Not to mention the coaching staff had to have known about his injury.

I mean, after game 4 I was predicting to friends that Wiz would be on the ice for a minimum of two goals in game 5 (he was - plus his penalty led to a PP goal I believe) and then the same in game 6 (he was). If there was a prop/side bet, it was pretty much a sure thing.

 

[cslebn]

Rene Bourque, possibly Andrew Shaw (I'd forgotten that Bickell is seen as a playoff superhero, was originally thinking him), Dwight King or Trevor Lewis (they've got better contracts, tho, as they're younger) or potentially even Dustin Brown.

Just to add

Chi:
Versteeg, Bollig, Handzus, maybe Bickell (seriously having a bad year)

Min:
Rupp, McCormick, Brodziak, Heatley, maybe Cooke (just based on negative impact as well)

Mtl:
Bourque, Desharanais (if you believe the Trade Forum), Briere fore regular season

could keep going but need to actually look like I'm working now....

 

[pete goegan]

Actually...yes. If it's Wiz, because in the previous three games (or very nearly every game of the series) he did the exact. same. thing. Not to mention the coaching staff had to have known about his injury.

I mean, after game 4 I was predicting to friends that Wiz would be on the ice for a minimum of two goals in game 5 (he was - plus his penalty led to a PP goal I believe) and then the same in game 6 (he was). If there was a prop/side bet, it was pretty much a sure thing.

This is the biggest problem I have with Wiz in the playoffs: the coaches didn't know the full extent of his injuries in Game 6 because he lied to them. He claimed that his shoulder was hurt by a hit he took in the first period (I believe), but it really was a head injury. He misled the coaches because he didn't want to follow the concussion protocols and sit in the dark room for however long. Tough? Sure, but it may have cost his team a possible playoff win. The problem is not unique to Wiz or hockey, it's an issue in all contact sports - players don't want to admit to head injuries unless they're impossible to disguise.

 

[DarkandStormy]

This is the biggest problem I have with Wiz in the playoffs: the coaches didn't know the full extent of his injuries in Game 6 because he lied to them. He claimed that his shoulder was hurt by a hit he took in the first period (I believe), but it really was a head injury. He misled the coaches because he didn't want to follow the concussion protocols and sit in the dark room for however long. Tough? Sure, but it may have cost his team a possible playoff win. The problem is not unique to Wiz or hockey, it's an issue in all contact sports - players don't want to admit to head injuries unless they're impossible to disguise.

Hmm, that's one I haven't heard. I mean, I did hear about him skipping the concussion protocol, but he said he injured his oblique in game 2 or 3 I believe. My understanding is that the staff knew about it, but continued to let him play through it...costing the team a couple goals each game at least. I would think it would be difficult for him to "hide" his injury from the staff for the rest of the series, especially when he played so poorly.

 

[blahblah]

This is the biggest problem I have with Wiz in the playoffs: the coaches didn't know the full extent of his injuries in Game 6 because he lied to them. He claimed that his shoulder was hurt by a hit he took in the first period (I believe), but it really was a head injury.

I can't speak to any of that, haven't seen anything on it.

However, Richards is responsible for watching what is happening on the ice. Injury or not, he didn't adjust. Players are going to tell you anything to get back on the ice; that can't be an excuse to totally mismanage the game.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Yeah it happened organically but the "Buying Out Umberger" thread is probably not the best place to discuss Wiz's playoff injuries. Thanks.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...finger-separated-shoulder-and-herniated-disc/

In an interview with the Columbus Dispatch, Umberger revealed he’d been playing with a broken finger, separated shoulder and herniated disc at times season — including all three during the Blue Jackets’ opening-round playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

 

[Viqsi]

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...finger-separated-shoulder-and-herniated-disc/

In an interview with the Columbus Dispatch, Umberger revealed he’d been playing with a broken finger, separated shoulder and herniated disc at times season — including all three during the Blue Jackets’ opening-round playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

I swear to G-d Almighty if someone responds to this with yet another misapplication of "injuries are no excuse" I will FLAY THEM ALIVE.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I swear to G-d Almighty if someone responds to this with yet another misapplication of "injuries are no excuse" I will FLAY THEM ALIVE.

Then we'll see who's all "injuries are no excuse."

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Rene Bourque, possibly Andrew Shaw (I'd forgotten that Bickell is seen as a playoff superhero, was originally thinking him), Dwight King or Trevor Lewis (they've got better contracts, tho, as they're younger) or potentially even Dustin Brown.

RJU owed $13.8m over next 3 years.

Bourque has come alive big time in the playoffs. Contract owed $5m over next two years total....No

Shaw is a 22 year old banger who isn't counted on for primary scoring on the Hawks. Owed $4m total over next two years....No

Bickell has a similar contract and had a bad regular season.....17 points in 23 games in last season's SC champion team playoff run, 8 pts in 9 games so far this season......No.

Dwight King is a bottom 6 forward who made $750k this past season....No.

Lewis is another 4th liner who makes just $1.5m per year..No.

Brown makes a lot of money and is a heart and soul guy who was the Captain of the SC winning team two years ago and was part of a historic comeback from an 0-3 deficit in this season's first round of the playoffs.....No

In general....LA and Chicago have won 3 of the past 4 Stanley Cups. They have the chemistry and role players they need to win it all. Why would one even think that an RJU would add value to either team?

Just to add

Chi:
Versteeg, Bollig, Handzus, maybe Bickell (seriously having a bad year)



Mtl:
Bourque, Desharanais (if you believe the Trade Forum), Briere fore regular season

could keep going but need to actually look like I'm working now....

Versteeg was aquired to play a bottom 6 role and half his salary was retained by Florida (Hawks owe $6.6m over next 3 seasons). I'll just assume that the Hawks acquired him to fill a role that he can. They likely could have gotten RJU if they had wanted to. Assuming that he would have waived his NTC....No.

Bollig and Handzus are role players who do their jobs and make only $1m per year. No and no.

Montreal:

Bourque was actually far worse than RJU during the regular season. Has been a physical presence and scored quite a bit so far in the playoffs....No.

Desharnais makes $3.5m per year, centers the first line and was the Habs second leading scoring forward this season......He's also my favorite NHLer.....So HELL NO

Briere has been very effective in limited duty during the playoffs....4 points in 7 games.....made an incredible pass which led to a goal just last night..... He actually was the team's first or second leading scorer on even strength if one measures productivity per 60 minutes. He only has one year $4m remaining on his deal. Briere has a total of 113 points in 115 career playoff games......So for the final time....NO

In general....Montreal just swept Tampa and is leading Boston 2-1. They are rolling four good lines. RJU would add nothing to the equation.




RJU likely has a little more than 5 weeks remaining in his CBJ career. Buyouts can occur beginning June 15 or 48 hours after the last Stanley Cup finals game ends, whichever is earlier.