Svech - 26/Aho - 34/RW- ?
LW - ?/Kuzy - 15/RW - ?
Martinook - 10/Staal - 14/Roslovic - 12
Robinson - 10/KK - 13/Carrier - 11
Slavin - 6/Burns - 13
Orlov - 7/Walker - 6
Ghost - 12/Chatty - 6
For most of the guys I did a goals per 82 calculation....I think I just ball-parked a couple though (Kuzy? Martinook?).
Unlike you to be so conservative and realistic.
I think you are underestimating on a few. Not huge numbers, but it adds up and I can see another 10-12 goals from that:
-Svech has averaged 29G/82 games over the past 3 seasons
- Aho has averaged 39G/82 games over the past 5 seasons and has 37, 36, and 36 the last 3.
- Martinook has 13 and 14 over the last 2 seasons
- Walker had 10 last year when he got a chance in a more offensive role and he should bet more opportunities in Carolina.
- Chatty had 8 last year and should get a bit of a bigger role this year.
That takes your 82 goal diff down to about 70 which IMO, isn't unrealistic.
if we assume a reasonable 50-55 from Jarvis/Necas, that leave's a differential of 15-20. Maybe not as problematic as it's made out to be.
Of course not every player is going to play 82 games, but backfill won't be held scoreless either. Lemieux, TDA, and Pono had 7 goals in limited playing time last year. And of course some players may score lower than their average, but others may score higher as well.
Now, if the Canes trade Necas in a futures deal, then it becomes a bigger issue.