Euro: UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying

[Jussi]

We're in!

 

[koyvoo]

Sweden deserved to win..

 

[AB13]

Sweden deserved to win..

View attachment 264843

Of course Spain are going to enjoy more possession, we executed a perfect defensive gameplan and counter attacked dangerously, while creating a lot on set pieces. Sweden did a lot better with what they have.

 

[Juve]

Everyone get up and give hand to Verratti for going two full games without receiving a yellow card.

 

[Pouchkine]

Before that 2016 Euro campaign Iceland were considered a team like Albania or Armenia ie not quite utterly hopeless but likely to never qualify.

Just like Finland.

 

[HajdukSplit]

Group D
Gibraltar - Georgia 2:3
Switzerland - Rep of Ireland 2:0

Switzerland recover from their loss in Copenhagen to beat Ireland at now have qualification in their own hands (H) and Gibraltar (A) next month, 4 points will be enough to qualify, two wins could give them a chance to win the group. Ireland have one game remaining, they host Denmark, its setting up to be a must win unless something crazy happens (Denmark slip up against Gibraltar). Gibraltar came from two down but conceded late against Georgia

Group F
Faroe Islands - Malta 1:0
Romania - Norway 1:1
Sweden - Spain 1:1

Spain rescue a point at the end what turned out to be a poor showing in Scandinavia in terms of points however they are officially in, now the question is whether they will be seeded because every dropped point is crucial. Sweden and Romania separated by one point with Sweden still needing to go to Bucharest next month, but Romania also still go to Spain while Sweden finish with Faroe Islands (H). Norway have the easiest fixtures on paper Faroe (A), Malta (H) but its now out of their hands, they need to hope Sweden don't win next MD.

Group G
Israel - Latvia 3:1

The lone match of this group today and Israel are now joint third with Slovenia and Macedonia but 5 points behind 2nd place Austria. Israel at the moment would make the playoffs but that could change by next month, they have no guarantee

Group J
Finland - Armenia 3:0
Greece - Bosnia 2:1
Liechtenstein - Italy 0:4

Finland should send a thank you to Greece who for the second straight qualifying cycle essentially eliminate Bosnia from direct qualification. Finland only need to beat Liechtenstein at home and they are in. Bosnia have a playoff route secured while Armenia are essentially eliminated without much hope of a playoff

 

[LOFIN]

I just hope we haven't jinxed it. SO f***ING CLOSE CMOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Just like Finland.

I dont think Iceland ever had a Jari Litmanen. I think Finland would have been seen as more of a tease. But its close..

 

[HajdukSplit]

After 8 matchdays

QUALIFIED: Belgium, Italy, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Spain
DIRECT QUALIFICATION STILL IN PLAY: England, Czech Republic, Kosovo (A); Portugal, Serbia (B), Netherlands, Germany, Northern Ireland (C), Rep of Ireland, Denmark, Switzerland (D), Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Wales (E), Sweden, Romania, Norway (F), Austria, Macedonia, Slovenia, Israel (G), Turkey, France, Iceland (H), Finland, Armenia, Bosnia (J)
SECURED PLAYOFFS (eliminated from direct qualification): Scotland (League C), Georgia (League D), Belarus (League D)
PLAYOFF HOPEFULS (eliminated from direct qualification): Bulgaria (good shape barring UEFA punishment), Luxembourg (need Kosovo to qualify directly), Azerbaijan (mathematically possible, almost impossible realistically), Greece (tough, but a slim chance)
ELIMINATED FROM EURO 2020: Montenegro, Lithuania, Estonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Albania, Moldova, Andorra, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino, Liechtenstein

Also, because of the multi-host Euros, we already know what group Italy, Russia and Spain are in
- Italy already know they are in Group A and all three of their matches will be in Rome, Italy will also open the Euros in Rome on June 12. This is the group linked with Baku so basically all of Italy's opponents will have to fly to Baku at least once, some maybe twice
- Russia are placed in Group B, if Denmark fail to qualify then Russia will host all three matches in St. Petersburg
- Spain are placed in Group E, if Rep of Ireland fail to qualify then they will host all three matches in Bilbao

 

[Burner Account]

de Gea injured

 

[robertmac43]

de Gea injured

Man U going down..

 

[Savi]

I'm not even gonna try and understand that playoff setup, it's so f***ing complicated

What happens when everyone from League A or B qualifies directly? Or what happens when only 3 teams from a league are eligible for the playoffs? (I think they need 4 per league)

 

[member 305909]

Is there a realistic chance that this time Finland will be the only Nordic country to qualify?

 

[MaxV]

That was HUGE game between Swiss and Ireland.

It's setting up that Ireland will probably need to beat Denmark.

 

[Necrobutcher]

15th of next month Finland will beat Lichenstein in Helsinki and make the tournament for the first time ever. This really is a dream come true and exactly what finnish football needs. I hope it starts a football mania in Finland and brings more people to finnish league games. This is insane! Feels so good.

 

[joe89]

Is there a realistic chance that this time Finland will be the only Nordic country to qualify?

No, Sweden is really close to qualify. Sweden might afford to lose in Romania, a game they are a big favorite in anyway, a win against Faroe Islands is enough as long as Romania doesn't take a point(might even need to win depending on GD) in Spain.

Denmark qualify if they beat or draw Gibraltar and at worst draw Ireland. (A loss against Gibraltar and win over Ireland is also enough) Things going there way are highly plausible, however Ireland will obviously be superpumped for that game knowing that it's all or nothing. A 70/30 deal.

Also, Norway has already secured a playoff spot. And purely looking at the actual games, they have deserved way more in the group than what they have. They were in it late away against Spain, and dropped leads twice to Sweden and once to Romania. Though they also scored some late tying goals. Either way, a playoff scenario fits their style of play very well as they are a hard to beat away team and I reckon they will at worst have a 50/50 shot to qualify from there.

So.. Sweden about 95%(excluding playoff chance), Denmark 70%(excluding playoff chance), Norway 50%(playoff chance) from here I would say.

 

[joe89]

If Sweden scores one goal against Romania, Romania needs to win 3-1, 4-2 etc. Romania needs 1-0 or two-goal wins to hold the GD over Sweden. If they don't hold the GD, they need to beat Spain in the last match if Sweden beat Faroe Island.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Is there a realistic chance that this time Finland will be the only Nordic country to qualify?

Yes.

 

[Lepardi]

Before that 2016 Euro campaign Iceland were considered a team like Albania or Armenia ie not quite utterly hopeless but likely to never qualify.

Just like Finland.

Euro 2016 qualifying seedings: 32. Finland, 38. Iceland
UEFA 2014 World Cup qualifying seedings: 38. Finland, 48. Iceland
Euro 2012 qualifying seedings: 22. Finland, 44. Iceland
UEFA 2010 World Cup seedings: 25. Finland, 41. Iceland
Euro 2008 qualifying seedings: 30. Finland, 35. Iceland

But if someone feels that "Iceland has always been better than Finland", we'll probably just have to believe them. Maybe "since 2014" equals "always" in their books.

 

[Pouchkine]

I don't care about Fifa Rankings. How many times did Finland come close to qualifying for a major tournament before this year?

 

[HajdukSplit]

Again because of the multi-host Euro we pretty much will already know the makeup of these groups. For example if Denmark qualify we will pretty much know Group B before the draw is even made: Russia, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden/Finland. One of Russia/Denmark will play three home games (again all assuming Denmark qualifies) while Belgium, probably going into the tournament the best ranked team in UEFA could play as much as two away matches

We also know almost for certain that if Ukraine are seeded they will get Germany in their group as Ukraine aren't a host country and Germany appear will be a Pot 2 team if they qualify

 

[HajdukSplit]

I'm not even gonna try and understand that playoff setup, it's so ****ing complicated

What happens when everyone from League A or B qualifies directly? Or what happens when only 3 teams from a league are eligible for the playoffs? (I think they need 4 per league)

Its starting to clear up but its hard to make a 100% prediction because there are still two rounds to go. If all results go as expected next month, league C and D look clear

League C
Scotland vs. Bulgaria (if Finland qualify, Bulgaria gets the last spot; if somehow Bulgaria are banned by UEFA then this spot goes to the next ranked team: Israel)
Norway vs. Serbia

League D
*If Kosovo don't qualify directly
Georgia vs. Belarus
Macedonia vs. Kosovo

*If Kosovo qualify directly
Georgia vs. Luxembourg
Macedonia vs. Belarus

League B is also pretty much clear if results go as expected: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Denmark/Rep of Ireland, Slovakia/Wales, Northern Ireland, the only thing for sure is Bosnia-Northern Ireland will be one of the semifinals. The other will be between whoever doesn't qualify directly from Group D and E (assuming Switzerland and Croatia finish the job)

In League A its hard to tell for now as Switzerland and Croatia aren't through yet, Iceland are the only certainties unless they qualify directly. If both SUI/CRO progress which is what is expected: Iceland vs. Romania & Hungary vs. Israel. Basically for every League A spot not taken by a League A team the next best ranked League C team takes their spot. If say Croatia doesn't progress then Romania is eliminated: Croatia vs. Hungary & Iceland vs. Israel. If neither CRO/SUI qualify directly then Iceland don't even host a playoff match

 

[Savi]

Basically for every League A spot not taken by a League A team the next best ranked League C team takes their spot.

Ah ok that makes it (a tiny bit) more clear

For example if Denmark qualify we will pretty much know Group B before the draw is even made: Russia, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden/Finland.

Ah great, so we're playing Russia in the qualifiers and the reward is playing them again in the EC group stage?
Wait so what happens if we lose next month in Russia and they win the qualifying group?

 

[MaxV]

Again because of the multi-host Euro we pretty much will already know the makeup of these groups. For example if Denmark qualify we will pretty much know Group B before the draw is even made: Russia, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden/Finland.

Daammn. And in an unlikely scenario if Russia beats Belgium and tops division?

 

[HajdukSplit]

Daammn. And in an unlikely scenario if Russia beats Belgium and tops division?

Well that's the only thing I'm confused about honestly and I should have made it clearer that this is based off the expected results (Belgium winning the group). Honestly don't know what happens if Russia wins the group and we aren't even certain Denmark will qualify but they are expected to. Regardless the draw will be a shit show as the whole field of teams won't even be known! The playoff matches are in March 2020, draw is in November