Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[Sens of Anarchy]

Looks to me like that model is dynamite at picking forwards. We would have Point, Kucherov, Kaspirov, Gaudreau, Hertl, Panarin, Hintz, Robertson, Debrincat, Lundell, etc..

Not so good at picking D though. I see only Bouchard (over Tkachuk, which is a hard no for me) and Ryan Ellis.

Seems like a very good way to find some scoring talent but does not provide a well-balanced appraoch to identifying all the roles needed for a winning team.

Definitely points driven .. Tkachuk would slip through. I have read some of Bader's work as well and at least in what I have read recommends going with the points vs other traits hoping the points will come. If you let the computer do the scouting that's what you are going to get. Now there are more metrics you can include but keeping it simple and being able to quantify over time its where we are at.

Controlled zone exits/entries for example are not par of it. Passes into high danger scoring areas neither. Without more consistent stats available across long samples we just won't get models showing higher NHLe for fantastic shutdown D.

Definitely will miss those high volume SC generators that don't have the points to back that up.

 

[slamigo]

Am I the only person who still thinks that Boucher will be fine? Lol.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Am I the only person who still thinks that Boucher will be fine? Lol.

I’m wait and see, but I think he’ll be an NHLer.

 

[OD99]

Or you could also end up with the bad forwards in the list.

Wasn't the list a direct comparable to who we would have drafted? Why would we end up with only the bad players?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Well, this is a hard question to answer for many reasons. First, there is no universal player ranking system. Second, I don't have the computer skills to see margin of error per pick. Lastly, the model goes back to 2007, but even with split data, the model is still able to use information from, say, the 2017 draft to inform projections in the 2007 draft. On the other hand, NHL teams can use stats and eye-test, they can control development, and they can make trades at the draft table. The above makes a straight comparison not exactly fair for either side. With that being said, the model was made before the 2021 draft, so that is new data for the model.

Anyway, the chart below contains the picks the model would have made with Ottawa's picks. I am assuming the model selects the player with the highest star probability. Each user is free to decide how to evaluate the picks. I kept goalies the same.

Model seems pretty good at identifying the players with the most impressive numbers, with an obvious exception being Russian players. Model is clearly placing too much value on their production.

It definitely shows that draft year production is a significant predictor of future success. It also provides some evidence for my preferred strategy that once you get past the 1st/2nd rounds it's smarter to throw darts at longshots with great production relative to their competition than try to draft future replacement level players to fill out the roster 5 years down the road.

Thanks for sharing that.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Wasn't the list a direct comparable to who we would have drafted? Why would we end up with only the bad players?

We would of had a combo of good and bad ones, not just the good ones.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Oof some poor choices in the model there. Some posters mentioned some, Klovov or Karlsson.

Poor choices on both sides. Very Good choices on both sides. Hard to argue against Point, Kucherov, Kaspirov, Gaudreau, Hertl, Panarin, Hintz, Robertson, Debrincat from a purely statistical approach.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Poor choices on both sides. Very Good choices on both sides. Hard to argue against Point, Kucherov, Kaspirov, Gaudreau, Hertl, Panarin, Hintz, Robertson, Debrincat from a purely statistical approach.

Agree. See post above.

 

[edguy]

Am I the only person who still thinks that Boucher will be fine? Lol.

No you are not. Im there with ya

 

[OD99]

We would of had a combo of good and bad ones, not just the good ones.

WTF? Of course not - that is what I said. You stated we could have ended up with only the bad ones and I said using this method we would have ended up with ALL of them so of course the good and the bad.

The good are far better than the good we have drafted so seems like a net positive.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Am I the only person who still thinks that Boucher will be fine? Lol.

Define fine

 

[Cosmix]

Am I the only person who still thinks that Boucher will be fine? Lol.

There are a few more!

 

[PlayersLtd]

Define fine

Not done arguing against Boucher yet eh?

Let a person be optimistic.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Not done arguing against Boucher yet eh?

Let a person be optimistic.

I’m asking him to define fine. I haven’t argued against Boucher at all.

 

[OD99]

Not done arguing against Boucher yet eh?

Let a person be optimistic.

Boucher optimists are easily the most sensitive and delicate people on the board I have ever seen.

He didnt have a great season, everyone hopes he does better next year...what's the big problem?

 

[Sweatred]

Boucher optimists are easily the most sensitive and delicate people on the board I have ever seen.

He didnt have a great season, everyone hopes he does better next year...what's the big problem?

Maybe it’s the constant barrage from “The 62” comparing him to a 6th rounder ?

 

[PlayersLtd]

The Boucher debate can be shelved for the summer at this point. It's well documented and nothing more is going to come from it. Baiting someone into another dead end discussion by challenging them to define 'fine' is just asking for more unnecessary and combative pollution on these boards, imo.

 

[OD99]

[MOD]

The Boucher debate can be shelved for the summer at this point. It's well documented and nothing more is going to come from it. Baiting someone into another dead end discussion by challenging them to define 'fine' is just asking for more unnecessary and combative pollution on these boards, imo.

How is that baiting someone?

Is fine being a 4th liner? 3rd line energy guy? Top 6?

Hard to see how asking to understand a point of view can trigger you like this.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Maybe it’s the constant barrage from “The 62” comparing him to a 6th rounder ?

Got a source or any kind of proof at all for this? Who compared him to a 6th rounder ... ever let alone constantly?

 

[Sweatred]

Got a source or any kind of proof at all for this? Who compared him to a 6th rounder ... ever let alone constantly?

What # was our 10OA (and the second highest drafted prospect) on your recent list ?

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

What # was our 10OA (and the second highest drafted prospect) on your recent list ?

You've pointed out many times that we're not pros on these boards, we're just excitable fans. Why do our opinions carry any weight at all in calling him a sixth rounder? The scouts in the Sens organization had him at 10th overall.

 

[Sweatred]

You've pointed out many times that we're not pros on these boards, we're just excitable fans. Why do our opinions carry any weight at all in calling him a sixth rounder? The scouts in the Sens organization had him at 10th overall.

They don’t … I don’t believe I said they did…. It’s just noise to be defected, ignored, or countered.

Just like asking to turn down really bad music - it doesn’t give the music any credibility.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

They don’t … I don’t believe I said they did…. It’s just noise to be defected, ignored, or countered.

Just like asking to turn down really bad music - it doesn’t give the music any credibility.

Then what's your frame of reference for calling him a sixth round pick? I don't see many doing that.

 

[Ice-Tray]

“Boucher Optimist” group now? Man, I’m part of so many nicely packaged judgement groups at this point.

Thankfully the ‘EM Apologist’ group and the ‘Owner Bootlicker’ group have been disbanded for the time being, so that frees up some time for other memberships.

My application to join the ‘Realistic Poster’ group has been pending for weeks now though, so admittedly I’ve lost hope.

I’m still hoping to wear the flair with pride from the ‘I told you all so’ group when this Dorion built team takes off though… Might even be able to double membership, from one to two?

 

[OD99]

“Boucher Optimist” group now? Man, I’m part of so many nicely packaged judgement groups at this point.

Thankfully the ‘EM Apologist’ group and the ‘Owner Bootlicker’ group have been disbanded for the time being, so that frees up some time for other memberships.

Same as being lumped in to the haters group except more compassionate and understanding.

As you have said to me, I am not lumping you in there.