Well, this is a hard question to answer for many reasons. First, there is no universal player ranking system. Second, I don't have the computer skills to see margin of error per pick. Lastly, the model goes back to 2007, but even with split data, the model is still able to use information from, say, the 2017 draft to inform projections in the 2007 draft. On the other hand, NHL teams can use stats and eye-test, they can control development, and they can make trades at the draft table. The above makes a straight comparison not exactly fair for either side. With that being said, the model was made before the 2021 draft, so that is new data for the model.
Anyway, the chart below contains the picks the model would have made with Ottawa's picks. I am assuming the model selects the player with the highest star probability. Each user is free to decide how to evaluate the picks. I kept goalies the same.
Year | Pick | OTT Pick | TDH Pick |
2021 | 10 | T. Boucher | C. Sillinger |
2021 | 39 | Z. Ostapchuk | S. Pastujov |
2021 | 49 | B. Roger | M. Knies |
2021 | 74 | O. Johnasson | A. Suvorov |
2021 | 123 | C. Latimer | C. Kurth |
2021 | 202 | C. Romeo | S. Jasecko |
2020 | 3 | T. Stutzle | M. Rossi |
2020 | 5 | J. Sanderson | A. Lundell |
2020 | 28 | R. Grieg | J. Mysak |
2020 | 33 | R. Jarventie | S. Halliday |
2020 | 44 | T. Kleven | M. Beryozkin |
2020 | 61 | E. Sokolov | T. Tullio |
2020 | 71 | L. Merilanien | L. Merilainen |
2020 | 155 | E. Engstrand | K. Kilkorka |
2020 | 158 | P. Daoust | W. Schingoethe |
2020 | 181 | C. Reinhardt | L. Morrison |
2019 | 19 | L. Thomson | A. Kaliyev |
2019 | 32 | S. Pinto | M. Kokkenen |
2019 | 37 | M. Sogaard | M. Sogaard |
2019 | 94 | V. Lodin | E. Keppen |
2019 | 125 | M. Kastelic | M. Gildon |
2019 | 187 | M. Guenette | R. Siedem |
2018 | 4 | B. Tkachuk | E. Bouchard |
2018 | 26 | J. Bernard-Docker | Z. Reszegh |
2018 | 48 | J. Tychonick | C. Addison |
2018 | 95 | J. Gruden | A. McShane |
2018 | 126 | A. Crookshank | E. Sokolov |
2018 | 157 | K. Mandolese | K. Mandolese |
2018 | 188 | J. Novak | D. Deryabin |
2018 | 194 | L. Loheit | N. Dunkley |
2017 | 28 | S. Bowers | J. Robertson |
2017 | 47 | A. Formenton | M. Shaw |
2017 | 121 | D. Batherson | J. Turkulainen |
2017 | 183 | J. Hollett | N. Popugayev |
2016 | 11 | L. Brown | A. Debrincat |
2016 | 42 | J. Dahlen | J. Dahlen |
2016 | 103 | T. Burgess | I. Shvyryov |
2016 | 133 | M. Lajoie | D. Sokolov |
2016 | 163 | M. Nurmi | D. Quenneville |
2015 | 18 | T. Chabot | J. Bracco |
2015 | 21 | C. White | K. Kaprizov |
2015 | 36 | G. Gagne | R. Hintz |
2015 | 48 | F. Chlapik | M. Vande Sompel |
2015 | 107 | C. Wolanin | K. Pilipenko |
2015 | 109 | F. Ahl | D. Salituro |
2015 | 139 | C. Jaros | N. Korostelev |
2015 | 199 | J. Daccord | J. Daccord |
2014 | 40 | A. Englund | B. Point |
2014 | 70 | M. Gendron | C. De Leo |
2014 | 100 | S. Eiserman | T. Baillie |
2014 | 189 | K. Summers | S. Watson |
2014 | 190 | F. Perron | V. Tkachyov |
2013 | 17 | C. Lazar | A. Lehkonen |
2013 | 78 | M. Hogberg | M. Hogberg |
2013 | 102 | T. Lindberg | J. Ikonen |
2013 | 108 | B. Harpur | L. Johnson |
2013 | 138 | V. Dunn | T. Moore |
2013 | 161 | C. Leblanc | B. Harms |
2013 | 168 | Q. Shore | G. Guertler |
2012 | 15 | C. Ceci | T. Hertl |
2012 | 76 | C. Driedger | C. Dreidger |
2012 | 82 | J. Maidens | N. Prokhorkin |
2012 | 106 | T. Boyle | C. Bertschy |
2012 | 136 | R. Baillargeon | A. Kadeykin |
2012 | 166 | F. Brassard | N. Klyuchnikov |
2012 | 196 | M. Wikstrand | A. Cangelosi |
2011 | 6 | M. Zibanejad | R. Murphy |
2011 | 21 | S. Noesen | N. Kucherov |
2011 | 24 | M. Puempel | M. Puempel |
2011 | 61 | S. Prince | Z. Arzamastev |
2011 | 96 | J. Pageau | J. Gaudreau |
2011 | 126 | F. Claesson | S. Ambroz |
2011 | 156 | D. Kramer | S. Abramov |
2011 | 171 | M. McCormick | S. Salminen |
2011 | 186 | J. Fransoo | E. Ageyev |
2011 | 204 | R. Dzingel | S. Shmelyov |
2010 | 76 | J. Culek | A. Panarin |
2010 | 106 | M. Sorenson | M. Kitsyn |
2010 | 178 | M. Stone | N. Gusev |
2010 | 196 | B. Aneloski | S. Barbashev |
2009 | 9 | J. Cowen | R. Ellis |
2009 | 39 | J. Silfverberg | A. Avtsin |
2009 | 46 | R. Lehner | R. Lehner |
2009 | 100 | C. Wideman | D. Sobchenko |
2009 | 130 | M. Hoffman | A. Raisov |
2009 | 146 | J. Costello | A. Kuchin |
2009 | 160 | C. Cowick | S. Bocharov |
2009 | 190 | B. Peltz | O. Yashin |
2009 | 191 | M. Sdao | A. Sergeyev |
2008 | 15 | E. Karlsson | D. Klopov |
2008 | 42 | P. Wiercoich | K. Petrov |
2008 | 79 | Z. Smith | M. Trunyov |
2008 | 109 | A. Petersson | N. Moon |
2008 | 119 | D. Grant | A. Lazarev |
2008 | 139 | M. Borowiecki | M. Thruber |
2008 | 199 | E. Sandin | C. Conacher |
2007 | 29 | J. O'Brien | B. MacLean |
2007 | 60 | R. Bashrikov | S. Korostin |
2007 | 90 | L. Caporusso | M. Milyokhin |
2007 | 120 | B. Blood | A. Vasilyev |