Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[BondraTime]

Would have assumed his advanced profile would be bad, it lines up with the eye test at BU.

He is extremely physical and a good skater, those are the only things shown in his 20 games at BU.

He needed to make a change, it’s a good thing he and the Sens decided on the 67’s, his development plan needed a reset. He’s a better player than he’s shown this year thus far.

How are we to evaluate the quality of a prediction without knowing what the prediction actually is? Sure new information should be utilized to evaluate past predictions and recalibrate models to make better predictions in the future but without clear knowledge of the initial prediction, it is difficult to determine what new information says about it and by extension what adjustments need to be made.

There is a presupposition by many on here about what the actual predictions were by the Senators scouting staff in regards to Boucher and the rest of the 2021 draft class. People assume that their prediction was that the players they drafted were going to have an immediate jump in offensive production. That assumption allows people on here to pass quite strong judgments about the drafting decisions made by the Sens scouting staff and their predictions. I think it is worthwhile to question whether this assumption is true.

Looking at the 2021 draft class for the Sens I see a fairly consistent profile: raw talent, limited experience, high end athletic upside, strong character and work ethic with the right determination to reach whatever their upside will be, strong skater, fast, smart player that plays a pro style game, physicality, meanness and grit, high intensity, versatility to play multiple roles, team first character mentality that will do anything for their team and anything to win. If I couple this profile with how Covid limited the experience of these players I think it would be reasonable for any prediction to have anticipated an adjustment period and more modest offensive expectations in the D+1 season.

If my assumption is correct then the Senators predictions at this point would be less far off than people think. They might have preferred or were hopeful for some different outcomes but they might have anticipated how plausible and probable the current outcome was. They may be more comfortable with the current outcome because they realized it was going to be a bit of a project and that the early stages of development post draft were likely going to be challenging.

If the predictions of the Sens aren’t far off what the guys are showing, then that’s a whole other problem, and a big one.

They definitely expected quite a bit more, or should have, a guy picked 10th doesn’t move from NCAA to the CHL 3 months into his career because things are going as planned, for either the team or player.

Sens can be, and likely are, still happy with the guys they took, and they should be. Otherwise, why take them. But there is zero chance they are happy with the draft class’s development thus far.

 

[Sweatred]

His skating is not a liability anymore from what I've seen and he plays physical enough and works hard enough that he's almost a guarantee to be a strong bottom sixer if he somehow doesn't pan out in the top of the lineup.

You need to catch some Columbus games or dig deeper into the scouting reports guy, I get that you like Boucher but there is no need to slander Sillinger with these ridiculous negative claims about his game to try and make Tyler look better. "Slow, shoot first, defensive liability" is such an insulting take on the player I'm borderline offended for his sake lol

That could be possible - there will be several players taken after the top ten who become better then these early picks. I get that Sillinger was “right there” for the Sens. For whatever reason they didn’t like his projection and preferred Bouchers. Deja view on Pinto, Klevin etc. Who knows where the players end up in 4 years but I’m okay with the Sens rationale…

If anything I’m frustrated with those useless wins at the end of the season that closed the door on a top 5 pick.

 

[JD1]

Would have assumed his advanced profile would be bad, it lines up with the eye test at BU.

He is extremely physical and a good skater, those are the only things shown in his 20 games at BU.

He needed to make a change, it’s a good thing he and the Sens decided on the 67’s, his development plan needed a reset. He’s a better player than he’s shown this year thus far.


If the predictions of the Sens aren’t far off what the guys are showing, then that’s a whole other problem, and a big one.

They definitely expected quite a bit more, or should have, a guy picked 10th doesn’t move from NCAA to the CHL 3 months into his career because things are going as planned, for either the team or player.

Sens can be, and likely are, still happy with the guys they took, and they should be. Otherwise, why take them. But there is zero chance they are happy with the draft class’s development thus far.

I think a challenge with any prospect is there's a gap between when you select a player and when you control that player's day to day development. That gap is generally two years for any prospect that doesn't jump to the NHL within that two years.

A lot can happen in that gap. Look at Lassi Thomson. He chose to return to Finland. At 19 he wasn't ready to help Ilves win. HF Sens was lit up with hot takes on what a bad pick and my favourite no toolbox. In hindsight going to Finland was probably a bad choice for Lassi. Fast forward 53 games in Belleville and it looks like we have a decent player on our hands and definitely a guy with a toolbox

When Ottawa selected Boucher, the comment that Dorion made was we like that he can score from outside the dots. That comment got no attention on HF sens. Attention here was focused on him being a bottom 6 guy that will fight.

GARRIOCH: Senators bring in a strong presence with Tyler Boucher | Ottawa Sun

Again, at BU we've got a player in the gap. We don't control the development. BU certainly isn't running their program to benefit the Ottawa Senators. BU's objective and the Senators objective weren't the same. He leaves BU, lands in Belleville and after a few days, Mann says

Mann: Tyler Boucher is a powerful skater, has a tremendous work ethic and a great shot

Mann is saying that relative to young players with pro aspirations. All three of those attributes are great attributes, particularly for a winger.

A guy that's not easily knocked off the puck that can really shoot it is something you can really use as a winger. Control the puck down low, win a battle, dish off, get yourself into a shooting position.

There's no amount of eating crow that the intelligentsia on this forum can eat that slows down highlighting why their thoughts are superior to the people that run the Senators program. That's just the way it is.

Based on the words of our guys
Great shot
Powerful skater
Great work ethic

It's not hard to see Boucher becoming a 20 goal man that's hard to play against. There's likely going to be a player(s) drafted after him that has a better career which will have all the blind squirrels jumping for joy, but if we get the 20 goal hard to play against guy it's not a bad result at 10th overall

 

[BondraTime]

I think a challenge with any prospect is there's a gap between when you select a player and when you control that player's day to day development. That gap is generally two years for any prospect that doesn't jump to the NHL within that two years.

A lot can happen in that gap. Look at Lassi Thomson. He chose to return to Finland. At 19 he wasn't ready to help Ilves win. HF Sens was lit up with hot takes on what a bad pick and my favourite no toolbox. In hindsight going to Finland was probably a bad choice for Lassi. Fast forward 53 games in Belleville and it looks like we have a decent player on our hands and definitely a guy with a toolbox

When Ottawa selected Boucher, the comment that Dorion made was we like that he can score from outside the dots. That comment got no attention on HF sens. Attention here was focused on him being a bottom 6 guy that will fight.

GARRIOCH: Senators bring in a strong presence with Tyler Boucher | Ottawa Sun

Again, at BU we've got a player in the gap. We don't control the development. BU certainly isn't running their program to benefit the Ottawa Senators. BU's objective and the Senators objective weren't the same. He leaves BU, lands in Belleville and after a few days, Mann says

Mann: Tyler Boucher is a powerful skater, has a tremendous work ethic and a great shot

Mann is saying that relative to young players with pro aspirations. All three of those attributes are great attributes, particularly for a winger.

A guy that's not easily knocked off the puck that can really shoot it is something you can really use as a winger. Control the puck down low, win a battle, dish off, get yourself into a shooting position.

There's no amount of eating crow that the intelligentsia on this forum can eat that slows down highlighting why their thoughts are superior to the people that run the Senators program. That's just the way it is.

Based on the words of our guys
Great shot
Powerful skater
Great work ethic

It's not hard to see Boucher becoming a 20 goal man that's hard to play against. There's likely going to be a player(s) drafted after him that has a better career which will have all the blind squirrels jumping for joy, but if we get the 20 goal hard to play against guy it's not a bad result at 10th overall

Absolutely, when he was drafted I had assumed they viewed him as a physical, 20 goal 40-50 point guy you’d throw on a top 6 role to open up space for guys. They are building a team that will run though walls, and he fits that archetype to a tee.

Right now, the only thing he’s shown this far in game at BU is his skating and physical play. He had yet to showcase his great shot, and has yet to showcase the offensive game the Sens had projected prior to the draft. It’s only been ~20 games, of course that’s not enough to make a definitive statement, and I’m in no way trying to make a definitive one. The Sens scouts, Mann and Dorion have forgotten more about hockey than I know, I’m not oblivious to that fact.

His play thus far was enough for both the Sens and Boucher to agree he was better off on another developmental path. His game wasn’t working at BU for whatever reason, and his tools and skills weren’t being applied outside of his skating and physical game. He was just skating around, hitting things without providing any offense to the team at all. Being a true 18 year old freshman with limited play the last year makes it not as dire.

The guy we’ve been watching thus far hasn’t been a good indication moving forward. Hopefully, and likely, the change in development path will turn the ship and get things back on track.

 

[JD1]

the Sens scouts, Mann and Dorion have forgotten more about hockey than I know, I’m not oblivious to that fact.

Bondra, I've long considered you one of the most knowledgeable guys that posts here. I don't think I'm alone in that belief

What you've written above is something that I think a lot of posters here don't quite get.

 

[SENATOR]

Boucher was projected late second round, because he is already displayed all of this even with limited scouting. Bad defensively, ok passing, good physicality, got a good shot but never uses. It will not change with 67. If Boucher will not become a tough guy type 4th liner, he is not needed in Sens uniform.
There are a lot of guys like Boucher in minors. Even better than him.

 

[ijif]

How are we to evaluate the quality of a prediction without knowing what the prediction actually is? Sure new information should be utilized to evaluate past predictions and recalibrate models to make better predictions in the future but without clear knowledge of the initial prediction, it is difficult to determine what new information says about it and by extension what adjustments need to be made.

There is a presupposition by many on here about what the actual predictions were by the Senators scouting staff in regards to Boucher and the rest of the 2021 draft class. People assume that their prediction was that the players they drafted were going to have an immediate jump in offensive production. That assumption allows people on here to pass quite strong judgments about the drafting decisions made by the Sens scouting staff and their predictions. I think it is worthwhile to question whether this assumption is true.

Looking at the 2021 draft class for the Sens I see a fairly consistent profile: raw talent, limited experience, high end athletic upside, strong character and work ethic with the right determination to reach whatever their upside will be, strong skater, fast, smart player that plays a pro style game, physicality, meanness and grit, high intensity, versatility to play multiple roles, team first character mentality that will do anything for their team and anything to win. If I couple this profile with how Covid limited the experience of these players I think it would be reasonable for any prediction to have anticipated an adjustment period and more modest offensive expectations in the D+1 season.

If my assumption is correct then the Senators predictions at this point would be less far off than people think. They might have preferred or were hopeful for some different outcomes but they might have anticipated how plausible and probable the current outcome was. They may be more comfortable with the current outcome because they realized it was going to be a bit of a project and that the early stages of development post draft were likely going to be challenging.

The initial prediction is the same for every pick. Teams select the player they believe will have the highest expected value. No matter what the Ottawa scouting staff thinks, objective measures exist that help predict future outcomes, and one of those measures is production, so it's not really an assumption about what the Ottawa scouting staff thinks. It's really just as simple as seeing predictive variables having positive values is a good thing, and seeing predictive variables with negative values is a bad thing.

You see that as the profile of the players selected, and maybe you are correct; however, it is also partially narrative. An alternative narrative is they took players that were big with low production. Based on historical trends, this is not a great drafting strategy, and low production across the board is just a consistent pattern with these players that is continuing.

 

[OD99]

We don’t need a soft player who can be top 10 in scoring .. or top 5…

Minor leagues are full of guys who can skate, have size and will bleed on every shift if it meant making the NHL. Those are the easiest players to find and for peanuts.

Scoring is hard and is not a skill you can will yourself to have, specifically later on in development.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Minor leagues are full of guys who can skate, have size and will bleed on every shift if it meant making the NHL. Those are the easiest players to find and for peanuts.

Scoring is hard and is not a skill you can will yourself to have, specifically later on in development.

Minor leagues are also filled with guys who can score, scoring in minor leagues isn’t as hard as scoring in pro leagues.

You need to have some character skills that propel you to both work harder, faster, and be able to adapt your game to a much higher level of difficulty.

I think the character skills are the harder ones to gauge and project in teenagers, while much of the hockey skill is clearly on display.

 

[Sweatred]

Minor leagues are full of guys who can skate, have size and will bleed on every shift if it meant making the NHL. Those are the easiest players to find and for peanuts.

Scoring is hard and is not a skill you can will yourself to have, specifically later on in development.

I disagree - there are very few players who can exert elite physicality at the NHL level and play above the 4th line.

 

[OD99]

I disagree - there are very few players who can exert elite physicality at the NHL level and play above the 4th line.

What exactly is, "expert Elite physicality"?

I am genuinely curious what you mean.

 

[OD99]

Minor leagues are also filled with guys who can score, scoring in minor leagues isn’t as hard as scoring in pro leagues.

You need to have some character skills that propel you to both work harder, faster, and be able to adapt your game to a much higher level of difficulty.

I think the character skills are the harder ones to gauge and project in teenagers, while much of the hockey skill is clearly on display.

Exactly. It's hard to score in the NHL and if you can't do it at the lower levels you have no chance up there.

Effort makes a difference of course but effort without the necessary skill won't make you a pro that is counted on to produce, a 10th overall pick should project to be.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Exactly. It's hard to score in the NHL and if you can't do it at the lower levels you have no chance up there.

Effort makes a difference of course but effort without the necessary skill won't make you a pro that is counted on to produce, a 10th overall pick should project to be.

These last 20 games are the first time in his career Boucher hasn't produced. There are like 50-60 guys who have produced at a pt. per game pace at USNDP-U18 and a huge proportion of them are/were NHLers.

Boucher achieved that mark across only 14 games, but also dealt with injury and illness. I don't think he's gonna be an impact offensive player, but he's shown some scoring ability.

 

[BondraTime]

These last 20 games are the first time in his career Boucher hasn't produced. There are like 50-60 guys who have produced at a pt. per game pace at USNDP-U18 and a huge proportion of them are/were NHLers.

Boucher achieved that mark across only 14 games, but also dealt with injury and illness. I don't think he's gonna be an impact offensive player, but he's shown some scoring ability.

He was a .5 point guy with U 17, and he had 5 goals and 8 points against NAHL and Div 3 NCAA teams in 6 games last year in the 12 he played with the U18, 1g 2a in 6 against the USHL. Not sure he would have produced the same playing the majority of the remaining games against NCAA, USHL and National teams. They only had 8 games against the NAHL and Div 3 teams all season and he skated and produced in 6 of them.

USNTDP stats can be thrown for a loop because they play so many different levels from top NCAA teams, top USHL teams, and National teams to teams from the NAHL and Div 3 NCAA.

Usually only play 6-8 out of a 50+ game season against those extremely weak teams, so it usually balances out.

 

[dumbdick]

Boucher was projected late second round, because he is already displayed all of this even with limited scouting. Bad defensively, ok passing, good physicality, got a good shot but never uses. It will not change with 67. If Boucher will not become a tough guy type 4th liner, he is not needed in Sens uniform.
There are a lot of guys like Boucher in minors. Even better than him.

Who projected him late 2nd round? I think THN had him around 25 or so.

EDIT: McKenzie had him 29th

 

[BondraTime]

Who projected him late 2nd round? I think THN had him around 25 or so.

EDIT: McKenzie had him 29th

Tyler Boucher

• 2021 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #93 by FCHockey
  
• 2021 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #63 by McKeen's Hockey
  
• 2021 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #49 by TSN/Craig Button
  
• 2021 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #29 by TSN/McKenzie
• 2021 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #25 NA skater by NHL Central Scouting, mid 2nd ranking
  
• 2021 NHL Entry Draft Ranked #26 by Hockeyprospect.com
  
• 2021 NHL Entry Draft Ranked # Honourable Mention by smahtscouting.com
  
• Also ranked outside of the top 30 according to ISS Hockey

 

[Sweatred]

What exactly is, "expert Elite physicality"?

I am genuinely curious what you mean.

exert - Google Search

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Bondra, I've long considered you one of the most knowledgeable guys that posts here. I don't think I'm alone in that belief

What you've written above is something that I think a lot of posters here don't quite get.

Ill put a target on my back and say that there are many posters on this forum that I would trust more than Dorion. Including Bondra.

Just because Dorions dad was a head scout and gifted his son a job as an NHL scout from which he rose through the ranks in arguably the most nepotistic major sport on the planet doesn't mean that Dorion has some unattainable level of hockey knowledge.

That isn't to say there aren't pro's who have this kind of knowledge. It's just not everyone, and certainly not Dorion.

I mean jesus, Chiarelli is being scouted for a GM job AGAIN. Dorion got extended despite making some of the worst trades in franchise/league history.

I have a lot of respect for the pros but it doesn't mean just because someone is a pro we should kiss their feet as hockey gods. Especially in something that is as subjective and fluid as hockey.

 

[JD1]

Ill put a target on my back and say that there are many posters on this forum that I would trust more than Dorion. Including Bondra.

Just because Dorions dad was a head scout and and gifted his son a job as an NHL scout from which he rose through the ranks in arguably the most nepotistic major sport on the planet doesn't mean that Dorion has some unattainable level of hockey knowledge.

That isn't to say there aren't people who don't have this kind of knowledge. It's just not everyone, and certainly not Dorion.

I mean jesus, Chiarelli is being scouted for a GM job AGAIN. Dorion got extended despite making some of the worst trades in franshise/league history.

I have a lot of respect for the pros but it doesn't mean just because someone is a pro we should kiss their feet as hockey gods. Especially in something that is as subjective and fluid as hockey.

Well then, in that case, ask @BondraTime his opinion on your thoughts here

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Well then, in that case, ask @BondraTime his opinion on your thoughts here

If Bondra's dad was a head scout of the effin toronto maple leafs and gifted 20 year old Bondra a job as an NHL scout just because relation, maybe Bondra rises through the ranks to be a NHL GM as well?

Like I said hockey is nepotistic as f*** and just because Dorion got to the top doesn't mean it's because he has an unattainable level of hockey knowledge. Which his results clearly show he doesn't.

honestly I don't even think Dorion played hockey. Or was even very good at it. Which isn't a requirement to be good at evaluating talent but I think it helps.

There's also the story of Dorion as GM going to address the team in the dressing room and the players blasting music over him because how/why are they gonna listen to Dorion talk to them about hockey. Says a lot about what they think about Dorion and his hockey knowledge.

 

[JD1]

If Bondra's dad was a head scout of the effin toronto maple leafs and gifted 20 year old Bondra a job as an NHL scout just because relation maybe Bondra rises through the ranks to be a NHL GM as well?

Like I said hockey is nepotistic as f*** and just because Dorion got to the top doesn't mean it's because he has an unattainable level of hockey knowledge. Which his results clearly show he doesn't.

honestly I don't even think Dorion played hockey. Or was even very good at it. Which isn't a requirement to be good at evaluating talent but I think it helps.

There's also the story of Dorion as GM going to address the team in the dressing room and the players blasting music over him because how/why are they gonna listen to Dorion talk to them about hockey.

There's the story of the Uber too.

That's the old Karlsson room right. That was fractured? Replaced by one that seems extraordinarily tight.

Look, if you think guys posting on hockey websites have the same level of understanding about what they see when they watch hockey as people that have made a career out of evaluating talent, good for you. That's your opinion. I'm not going to try to dissuade you from it.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

There's the story of the Uber too.

That's the old Karlsson room right. That was fractured? Replaced by one that seems extraordinarily tight.

Look, if you think guys posting on hockey websites have the same level of understanding about what they see when they watch hockey as people that have made a career out of evaluating talent, good for you. That's your opinion. I'm not going to try to dissuade you from it.

Those incident's are probably why Dorion has a hard on for "character". Players thought he was a joke. The current ones probably still do, but they have enough character/young enough to not say it to his face.

I think Dorion said he never goes in the dressing room anymore because it's the "coaches domain" (wtf?). I think he doesn't go anymore to protect his ego as he would be laughed out of the room again if he tried to explain hockey to the players.

and yea it's not like this is a world where Donald Trump can be made president. Clearly we live in a meritocracy.

 

[SENATOR]

I am sure the new Uber talk, concerning DJ will be even more funnier. Players are not stupid. You play one defensive model the first 20 games. Absolutely porous and ineffective. And then as soon as the team is taken out from playoffs contention to salvage DJ's somehow bad winning percentage the team employs a more effective defensive model. The same happened last year as well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I am sure the new Uber talk, concerning DJ will be even more funnier. Players are not stupid. You play one defensive model the first 20 games. Absolutely porous and ineffective. And then as soon as the team is taken out from playoffs contention to salvage DJ's somehow bad winning percentage the team employs a more effective defensive model. The same happened last year as well.

Players love DJ, heard it numerous times on podcasts.
They changed their neutral zone philosophy, and offensive forecheck. We know what happened in the brutal November, Covid.

 

[JD1]

Those incident's are probably why Dorion has a hard on for "character". Players thought he was a joke. The current ones probably still do, but they have enough character/young enough to not say it to his face.

I think Dorion said he never goes in the dressing room anymore because it's the "coaches domain" (wtf?). I think he doesn't go anymore to protect his ego as he would be laughed out of the room again if he tried to explain hockey to the players.

and yea it's not like this is a world where Donald Trump can be made president. Clearly we live in a meritocracy.

Keep going man. You're on a roll