Player Discussion Trent Frederic II

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Amazing Bruins lore that Bertuzzi is responsible for Matty Ice's abysmal playoffs in his career, Still no idea why Gryz didnt try to block Verhaeges shot instead of turning side ways in that OT. Hakuna Matata.

Back to Freddy, what type extension are you inking him to?

Bertuzzi was responsible for one of Grizz’ -4 when he tossed the puck right into the slot from the wall while Grizz was over next to the Bruins bench.

I would sign Freddy to 4x$3.25 without thinking twice.

 

[LouJersey]

Yup unless he gets uber hot

I think he's closer as a player to the last two years than this one, but you have to pray that's the case if you give him 4-5 years.

Bertuzzi was responsible for one of Grizz’ -4 when he tossed the puck right into the slot from the wall while Grizz was over next to the Bruins bench.

I would sign Freddy to 4x$3.25 without thinking twice.

ok, agreed.

 

[quietbruinfan]

I think he's closer as a player to the last two years than this one, but you have to pray that's the case if you give him 4-5 years.


ok, agreed.

I think the opposite as we were loaded two years ago and deeper than average last year. TF was a product of that.

 

[BruinDust]

If it’s a viable stat, then why did no one use it to praise Grizz when he was on the ice for over a third of the team’s plus/minus total?

Without looking, who leads the Bruins in plus/minus this year?

If I'm being honest I wasn't around this board much during that season, frankly I didn't watch a lot of Boston's games either. This year I'm stuck with Sportsnet+ until March so I'm seeing all of their games. So I can't comment on what was said or not said about Matt Gryz in 2022-23.

As for your 2nd question, I have no idea.

 

[Over the volcano]

Who cares where he ranked in the entire NHL, how did he compare to the rest of his team?

Oh wait, that team was a combined +127. Can we take anything from the fact that Patrice Bergeron was the top plus/minus forward on that team at +35? Or are we only allowed to use it when it comes to Matt Gryz? Did Bergeron's +35 have nothing to do with his own individual performance?

At least the plus/minus truthers can defend the statistic without resorting to insults.

I honestly can't tell if you're attacking it or defending it in this post.

It's a dumb stat

 

[NDiesel]

Has there ever been a bigger fan club for a more mediocre Bruin in history?

Where is the extension for this vital piece?

I'd probably trade him but he gets way more hate in here than he deserves as well

 

[BruinDust]

So it's Cole Koepke leading the team, followed by Kastelic.

Which seems to reinforce the point. Koepke and his line had a red hot start to the year as per the statline and eye test and he's a plus 10 by Game 6, has been an even player from Game 7 onward which sounds about right for how he's played.

I honestly can't tell if you're attacking it or defending it in this post.

It's a dumb stat

I'm defending it. I've never claimed it was the most important stat or anywhere close. But it matters and has value when evaluating players.

Let's take a D-man for example. Let's say this D-man makes great break-outs passes and defends well, so he' getting piles of tertiary assists and teams generally aren't scoring much when they are on the ice. They constantly end up on the plus side of the ledger. Is there no correlation there? Are the consistent breakouts and consistent strong defending mutually exclusive from the high plus/minus?

What about a forward who struggles to get pucks out of the defensive zone and his team is constantly hemmed in when he is on the ice leading to goals against and has a bad plus/minus? Can we not draw a line between the bad +- and the inconsistent zone clears?

Individual +/- is not mutually exclusive to individual performance. There will be games where there are outliers both good and bad.

If you want to continue placing zero value in it, then by all means fill your boots.

 

[PB37]

Who cares where he ranked in the entire NHL, how did he compare to the rest of his team?

Oh wait, that team was a combined +127. Can we take anything from the fact that Patrice Bergeron was the top plus/minus forward on that team at +35? Or are we only allowed to use it when it comes to Matt Gryz? Did Bergeron's +35 have nothing to do with his own individual performance?

At least the plus/minus truthers can defend the statistic without resorting to insults.

But that is the rub though with plus/minus. At face value in most cases, it's more indicative of team play while on the ice rather than the individual without more digging into the wider scope of statistics that we refer to as advanced to show how that player is an integral part of goals being scored or goals being let in. One GM has said on good teams, plus minus will be good for most of the players. On bad ones, it'll be bad for most of the players. So it they're very aware of the grain of salt the stat provides.

 

[BruinDust]

But that is the rub though with plus/minus. At face value in most cases, it's more indicative of team play while on the ice rather than the individual without more digging into the wider scope of statistics that we refer to as advanced to show how that player is an integral part of goals being scored or goals being let in. One GM has said on good teams, plus minus will be good for most of the players. On bad ones, it'll be bad for most of the players. So it they're very aware of the grain of salt the stat provides.

As am I, as are most people who post here. I've said in a previous post it loses most of it's value when comparing players across different teams.

Looking at the Bruins who are 21st right now in goal differential at -17. They have a range of +10 down to -13 (23). The Jets are 1st in GD, and have a range of +15 down to -7 (22). Haydn Fleury is their -7 player. Is that reflective of his own performance, his teams, or a combination of both? I'd say it's both but likely more about how he is performing, given that he's a journeyman D-man on his 5th team in 5 seasons.

Some of that -13 is on Trent Frederic. Believe it, or don't believe it, I really don't care.

 

[Number8]

Who else on the team does anyone in here ever compare to Kastelic for effort and physicality?

The guys been great and could be used to shame the rest of the forwards on the roster but no, just Frederic gets that shade.

I mean I don't think many/any in here could even guess which forward is #3 on the year in hits for this team behind Kastelic and Frederic. Without looking who would you guess an how far back would they be?

You raise a fair point. Many players underperforming, but when they perform well they bring aspects that are not necessarily tied to dogged skating and intensity. For example, when on:

Pasta brings goals.
Marchand brings playmaking and goals.
Lindholm same as Marchand.
Zacha same.
Coyle brings puck possession and O time zone time

Frederick? If he doesn’t bring dogged skating and intensity (easier to do than learn to be a sniper) he has nothing to bring. He’s a physical forward who does have a decent nose for goal when he’s working. But without work and intensity? He brings nothing.

Not many have that kind of engine.

Usually, it's only the players that had to play that way to make it to the NHL in the first place.

Fair point. But I’ve seen Freddie play with a much better engine, much better, than the two cylinder de chevaux he’s cruising through games with this season most of the time.

 

[Number8]

I like Kastelic, and would agree he has outplayed Frederic so far this season, but you look at last season's Frederic, and Kastelic is not in that class of player, not close

Fair point as well. However it’s not last season Freddie playing for a contract. It’s this season Freddie and while hes not going to crush his UFA payday, he’s not exactly boosting it either.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

Is 40 points as a 3rd liner last year not a breakout year? Like what is the expectation from him playing 3rd line mintues? 50 points? 60?

Was it a “breakout” year or was it an outlier?

Did Charlie Coyle have a “breakout” year last year or was it just an outlier?

When a player regress the year after their breakout year, you’re being a tad ignorant to refer to the previous year as a breakout. A breakout year implies a young player “broke through” an invisible barrier to finally reach their potential and find their game at the NHL level. Trent Frederic had his most productive year during a season which just so happened to feature multiple other players on the team doing the same thing (and not young players). It was an outlier.

Again, he’s definitely an NHL player. He can produce at that level. But he’s not a long-term commitment player IMO. I’ve seen enough of the guy to be very confident I’m not missing his absence or that whatever void he’s left cannot be filled by already existing players. He’s a 15-15, 30 point player who sporadically plays a few “tone setting” shifts. He can take a 2 year deal or go somewhere else in my mind. And even that 2 year deal, I hesitate to go over 3 M.

“But he won’t take that!” Yeah, probably right. And that’s why if it were up to me, he’d likely be gone at the end of the year.

 

[Over the volcano]

Top six needs thump. They should move him up with Marchand and Lindholm a la Geekie with Zacha and Pastrnak.

 

[22Brad Park]

Top six needs thump. They should move him up with Marchand and Lindholm a la Geekie with Zacha and Pastrnak.

He never gets there on time though

 

[RoccoF14]

Was it a “breakout” year or was it an outlier?

Did Charlie Coyle have a “breakout” year last year or was it just an outlier?

When a player regress the year after their breakout year, you’re being a tad ignorant to refer to the previous year as a breakout. A breakout year implies a young player “broke through” an invisible barrier to finally reach their potential and find their game at the NHL level. Trent Frederic had his most productive year during a season which just so happened to feature multiple other players doing the same thing (and not young players). It was an outlier.

Again, he’s definitely an NHL player. He can produce at that level. But he’s not a long-term commitment player IMO. I’ve seen enough of the guy to be very confident I’m not missing his absence or that whatever void he’s left cannot be filled by already existing players. He’s a 15-15, 30 point player who sporadically plays a few “tone setting” shifts. He can take a 2 year deal or go somewhere else in my mind. And even that 2 year deal, I hesitate to go over 3 M.

“But he won’t take that!” Yeah, probably right. And that’s why if it were up to me, he’d likely be gone at the end of the year.

Freddy went 18/22/40 in 82 games last year. Heinen went 17/19/36 in 74.

Vancouver signed Heinen for 2 @ $2.25/yr. I get that Heinen and Freddy are different players, but Freddy's already making more than that. So how much more are people really willing to go to keep him?

Regardless of how you feel about him as a player, I don't see any reason to go over $3mil. And I think that's generous.

I truly don't understand why this player generates such heated debate.

 

[CellyHard]

I'm all for the criticism of Frederic's play this year but the fact he is still labeled a "disappearance" in the playoffs after last year is a little perplexing to me

5 points in 13 games with 13 minutes of ice time and all at even strength. His 3 goals at ES were tied fro 1st on the team...

He got that HUGE goal against the leafs to tie it up. Everyone stunk against the Panthers so I put little weight on that.

I guess its slightly down from his .5 ppg pace in the regular season but he's a 3rd liner and quite honestly, that's usually typical as the games just get so much tighter, less penalties, etc.

I just feel like everyone's expectations for Frederic are all out of wack. They expect like playoff Krejci and prime Lucic. It's very rare to find players exceed their regular season scoring pace in the playoffs.

Anything over 4 million I'm passing but anything in the 3's I'm highly considering. Good time to buy low.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

I'm all for the criticism of Frederic's play this year but the fact he is still labeled a "disappearance" in the playoffs after last year is a little perplexing to me

5 points in 13 games with 13 minutes of ice time and all at even strength. His 3 goals at ES were tied fro 1st on the team...

He got that HUGE goal against the leafs to tie it up. Everyone stunk against the Panthers so I put little weight on that.

I guess its slightly down from his .5 ppg pace in the regular season but he's a 3rd liner and quite honestly, that's usually typical as the games just get so much tighter, less penalties, etc.

I just feel like everyone's expectations for Frederic are all out of wack. They expect like playoff Krejci and prime Lucic. It's very rare to find players exceed their regular season scoring pace in the playoffs.

Anything over 4 million I'm passing but anything in the 3's I'm highly considering. Good time to buy low.

Literally no one expects that. And I’m confident in that assertion despite knowing only a few people.

 

[PB37]

As am I, as are most people who post here. I've said in a previous post it loses most of it's value when comparing players across different teams.

Looking at the Bruins who are 21st right now in goal differential at -17. They have a range of +10 down to -13 (23). The Jets are 1st in GD, and have a range of +15 down to -7 (22). Haydn Fleury is their -7 player. Is that reflective of his own performance, his teams, or a combination of both? I'd say it's both but likely more about how he is performing, given that he's a journeyman D-man on his 5th team in 5 seasons.

Some of that -13 is on Trent Frederic. Believe it, or don't believe it, I really don't care.

Whether you or i believe in the stat, it seems to have less importance among decision makers of teams around the league as the rise of analytics has increased. I think it has its place as the sample size grows as it's more of a generalized stat rather than a true indicator, at least in my book.

 

[LouJersey]

Forward worst 10 shifts through two periods in the Caps game. Sacco souring on him. Would be nice for him to have a break through period now heading into the break

 

[Blowfish]

I heard he was going home for Christmas. Meeting with Monty?

 

[CellyHard]

Literally no one expects that. And I’m confident in that assertion despite knowing only a few people.

Well no one is going to say it but that's what many expectations are. They are just simply unrealistic.

I mean if 5 pts in 13 games (tied for 1st in EV goals, 2nd on the team in EV points) is a disappearance act (which many have claimed here...look no more than just a few pages back) then what is meeting expectations and what is exceeding expectations?

However you answer those two questions you just start getting irrational for a guy making 2 million or so on your 3rd line.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

Well no one is going to say it but that's what many expectations are. They are just simply unrealistic.

I mean if 5 pts in 13 games (tied for 1st in EV goals, 2nd on the team in EV points) is a disappearance act (which many have claimed here...look no more than just a few pages back) then what is meeting expectations and what is exceeding expectations?

However you answer those two questions you just start getting irrational for a guy making 2 million or so on your 3rd line.

There are players out there comfortably nestled into the category of "terrible way too much of the time, but well worth the wait and expenditure due to the quick ability to put up points". For an ultimate example, look no further than David Pastrnak. I'd venture that the majority of teams have one or two players that unquestionably fit this general qualification. But, on every team, as you get further and further down the lineup, you reduce the expectation for points, and replace it instead with an expanded need to be a three-zone player, win board battles, be strong in your defensive zone coverage, get physical, occasionally fight, etc. Why? Because you're not a superstar and that's how your opposition is going to play you. And you can't score your way out of mistakes.

My issue with signing Frederic to an extended multi-year $3 million+ deal is he never has a shot IMO to score more than the 40 points he put up last season. It was an outlier. That followed the trend of multiple other players on the same team. So, for a guy who I slot in as a give or take 30 point player for his career, I need some consistency in the almighty "intangibles" to find it worth the commitment. An asset that is a threat to the other team other than the occasional goal. We've seen how these bottom-line players that none of us have ever heard can suddenly step into NHL lineups. Justin Brazeau has a long way to prove the staying power of Trent Frederic, and yet he's a virtual unknown having an impact as a lower line forward putting up points by being a pain in the ass on the PP. Mark Kastelic was a "throw-in" who most of us hoped would be "decent" and has been the resounding Seventh Player favorite through his first 30 games on a prove it deal. Am I saying any of this production, or general upward trend in these players, is guaranteed to continue? No. But what I am saying is it's not worth committing much risk to hang onto a guy that really should never move above the bottom two lines in any sort of decent offensive lineup, and who don't also bring some type of 'X' factor in a bottom line role. There's too many others out there who can fill or come close to filling those type of shoes without a 4-year, 3+ million commitment attached.

 

[DominicT]

The truth is that as fans, we are sometimes emotionally invested and have blinders on and I am just as guilty as anyone else is. Last week on my podcast, Frederic was a hot topic.

Pro Frederic fan: The problems is that Sacco is using Frederic more in defensive situations and thus his offence is suffering.

Me: Well, the facts and the stats say that's false. Frederic has the lowest defensive zone starts since he became a full time NHL'er this season and it drops even further since Sacco took over. It just looks that way because they are hemmed in their zone a lot. That's just as much a reflection on his linemates as it is Frederic, but to say he is being tasked with more defensive responsibilities is not true. Frederic had 29 SOG in 20 games under Monty. He had 21 in the first 10 games under Sacco. Sacco messed with his linemates and reduced his TOI and now has 3 SOG in his last 6 games. I don't think the first 10 games was an indication that he was given more defensive responsibilities.

Anti Frederic fan: His stupid penalties are hurting this team and he should be benched because of it.

Me: Well, that might have been true under Montgomery. But since Sacco took over, Frederic has only taken a penalty in one of 16 games and that was the 7 minutes he took against Winnipeg. In 15 of 16 games under Sacco, he has not taken a penalty.

Sweeney has said he has had conversations with Frederic's camp. I'm sure they talked money based on Frederic's season last year and with the expectations of more offense this season. Would that same money be on the table today? I don't know.

I do believe Sweeney wants to extend him. On his terms. I also believe Sweeney would offer a fair deal and hopes that Frederic rebounds offensively. That's where I think they are.

 

[LouJersey]

He needs some top six time imo. Right side of Marchand and Lindy.

 

[CellyHard]

He needs some top six time imo. Right side of Marchand and Lindy.

Coyle has fit like a glove there.

Go Frederic-Zacha-Geekie and give Pasta some rest.

Back to back with CBJ after the break is a lot for someone banged up. Might be a good idea to give him a week or so. Rangers and Caps after...they'll survive the way they're playing and it makes other players step up (see H.Lindholm)