Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[swiftwin]

There's actually some pretty significant differences in how they've been playing, night and day really.

Last year, the underlying numbers, such as xGF%, were bottom 5 in the league, this year we are 6th in xGF% at 5v5.
Last year our 5v5 xGA/60 was 26th worst in the league, this year we are tied for 2nd best.
Last year after 16 games, we were out of a playoff spot by pts%, this year we currently hold a wild card spot.

The eye test makes it even more obvious how much better they are playing.

Moneypuck has us at 2nd best xGF%

 

[swiftwin]

We're currently in a wild card spot using pts %, so both sides of the coin currently show us as improved.

Exactly. If before the season started, you told me we'd have some of the best underlying metrics in the league AND be sitting in a playoff spot at this point in the season, I'd be ecstatic.

 

[UglyPuckling]

We're currently in a wild card spot using pts %, so both sides of the coin currently show us as improved.

What I was referring to in my post was that in the final analysis like at the end of the year, the NHL will use the standings and points. I thought the words “in the end” made that pretty clear, but apparently not. Maybe I needed to bold that part.

 

[Golden_Jet]

What I was referring to in my post was that in the final analysis like at the end of the year, the NHL will use the standings and points. I thought the words “in the end” made that pretty clear, but apparently not. Maybe I needed to bold that part.

Ya but using points is useless these days, when there is a potential of a 10 point swing in standings, because of differences in games played.

If you want a true accurate snapshot of today, you have to use points percentage.

That’s why MLB and NBA use point percentage and games behind leader.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

They are very visibly a better team regardless of the record.

And anyway, it was December that did them in last year. They have to avoid lengthy losing streaks and instead put together a nice winning streak eventually. The latter feels more likely this year.

The Sens were out of it before December even stared….

A general rule of thumb is that teams not in a playoff spot by US Thanksgiving, are not going to make the playoffs….

 

[swiftwin]

We have the 5th best odds to win the Stanley Cup, even ahead of Winnipeg and Edmonton.

We're officially Canada's team!

 

[UglyPuckling]

Ya but using points is useless these days, when there is a potential of a 10 point swing in standings, because of differences in games played.

If you want a true accurate snapshot of today, you have to use points percentage.

That’s why MLB and NBA use point percentage and games behind leader.

Yes, points percentage provides a snapshot of today, and at the end of the regular season, the NHL will determine playoff seeds based on points. Agreed.

The NHL doesn’t award the Cup or determine playoff seeding in November though. So, seeing as how this seems to be about feeling good now about where we stand, and using stats to help us determine that, I’d feel a lot better if we were closer/close to .600 (Tampa is .567) which would give us the 3rd divisional seed. People will have different ideas or thresholds when it comes to this i suspect.

 

[Big Muddy]

Senators are .531 which is 8th place in Eastern Conf based on points percentage. The Islanders who are 9th in the Eastern Conf based on points percentage are .529 and the Islanders beat us. This is a slim margin.

Another observation is that Carolina and Washington are #1 and #2 in the Eastern Conf based on points percentage, while the Rangers are #3 and Florida are #4. I’m not ready to say that Carolina and Washington are the better teams (than Rangers/Florida) and that they will be at the end of the year and/or in the playoffs.

There’s still a ways to go and I expect there will be some changes. So, stats are fun, but the bottom line is that the Senators need to pile up the "actual Wins".

 

[PlayersLtd]

Worth keeping in mind is the muffin of a late season schedule that the NHL baked up for us. 11 of our last 16 games are as follows:

MTL
BUF
DET
CBJ
PIT (back 2 back)
BUF
CBJ
CBJ
MTL
PHI
CHI

We finish with the easiest schedule in the league and we can reasonably expect to make up ground vs the difficult opening schedule we've had.

 

[Dionysus]

Worth keeping in mind is the muffin of a late season schedule that the NHL baked up for us. 11 of our last 16 games are as follows:

MTL
BUF
DET
CBJ
PIT (back 2 back)
BUF
CBJ
CBJ
MTL
PHI
CHI

We finish with the easiest schedule in the league and we can reasonably expect to make up ground vs the difficult opening schedule we've had.

That's a murderers row for the Sens lol. Always lose to the teams below them. End of the season those teams are playing spoiler with no pressure.

Hopefully the Sens put themselves in a position to take advantage of that schedule. Means they will be playing better teams when those teams are still battling for the playoffs and not coasting in, resting guys when things are locked up.

 

[Big Muddy]

Worth keeping in mind is the muffin of a late season schedule that the NHL baked up for us. 11 of our last 16 games are as follows:

MTL
BUF
DET
CBJ
PIT (back 2 back)
BUF
CBJ
CBJ
MTL
PHI
CHI

We finish with the easiest schedule in the league and we can reasonably expect to make up ground vs the difficult opening schedule we've had.

Yes, those teams are lower in the standings. But, we have already lost to Montreal, Buffalo and Pittsburgh this year and seem to lose often enough against teams that should be beatable.

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, those teams are lower in the standings. But, we have already lost to Montreal, Buffalo and Pittsburgh this year and seem to lose often enough against teams that should be beatable.

Every team loses games against lesser teams, those loses tend to stick out when they happen, but over the long haul, we historically tend to have a better record against the group of non playoff teams than we do against playoff teams, it would only be logical to expect that trend to continue even if we lose a couple more to "inferior" teams.

 

[Big Muddy]

Every team loses games against lesser teams, those loses tend to stick out when they happen, but over the long haul, we historically tend to have a better record against the group of non playoff teams than we do against playoff teams, it would only be logical to expect that trend to continue even if we lose a couple more to "inferior" teams.

Ya, hope so.

Hopefully, Buffalo and Detroit will continue to be categorized as “lesser teams” as well although not much separates us and them standings wise.

 

[Loach]

Every team loses games against lesser teams, those loses tend to stick out when they happen, but over the long haul, we historically tend to have a better record against the group of non playoff teams than we do against playoff teams, it would only be logical to expect that trend to continue even if we lose a couple more to "inferior" teams.

Are you Spock?

 

[Micklebot]

Are you Spock?

Love long and prosper

 

[Loach]

Love long and prosper

Love long and prosper? How many kids do you have? Do you have a farm?

 

[Micklebot]

Love long and prosper? How many kids do you have? Do you have a farm?

Fat fingers on a cellphone might cause the odd typo, but I think I'll run with that one and leave it as is

 

[darude]

Every team loses games against lesser teams

Yes but we're better at it than most!